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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Cary, NC

    10 Reasons Why the Duke Blue Devils Could Go Undefeated

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...efeated#page/1

    This is an interesting article but the title !!! Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.


    Read Justin Mc Teer's post at the end of the comments on the first page, "Here's my honest opinion. Kabongo to Duke".

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Lancaster, PA
    Quote Originally Posted by GODUKEGO View Post
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...efeated#page/1

    Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.

    Ken Pomoroy - statistical genuis - noted yesterday, that no team has greater than a 1% chance of going undefeated this season.Can't get much more highly unlikely than that!

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    I always predict we will go undefeated and win the National Championship. Last year I was half right. How did everyone else do with their predictions?
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  4. #4
    IMO Duke will have 2-3 loses. 1 outa conference and 1-2 in conference.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Raleigh
    Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to...
    It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

    So to ensure that we lose as many games as possible.. I extend an open invitation to any UNC fan/support group/alumni/tutors to buy me tickets to any or all Duke games this yr.

    Heck I'll give them a 3 yr window on the offer.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by wilko View Post
    Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to...
    It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

    S.
    and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2009

    Maybe Not Undefeated, But...

    There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.

    Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.

  8. #8
    Why even start one of these threads... It just contributes to all of the hubris and overoptimism that we don't really need... I'm more than happy to lose a few games, keep our humility, and then pound out the end of the season in style. The most gratifying season I've ever seen was the last one, and the least was the '99 team where I almost threw my TV out my apartment window. GO DUKE!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Last year I think this same site put up a nearly identical article titled "why Kentucky will go undefeated." It was practically the same article, but with the team and player names swapped out. There was a matching article on why the wildcats won't go undefeated, as there is for duke this year. Not exactly groundbreaking stuff.

  10. Quote Originally Posted by CEF1959 View Post
    There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.

    Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.
    Duke seems to lose at least once or at least play below potential in Decembers...certainly so for the last three seasons:
    2010 - Loss to Wisconsin, December 2
    2009 - Loss to Michigan, December 6
    2008 - Loss to Pittsburgh, December 20

    I think it's because semester end projects and exams are "real" and take away from the players' bball focus.

    Not at all a bad thing, but if I have to predict a non-conference loss it would be in December. I want to specify mid-December, but this year it seems we don't have anyone imposing at that time: Bradley, Saint Louis, Elon. (Perhaps by design!)

    So my best guess is Butler or Michigan State.
    Last edited by ice-9; 11-03-2010 at 12:39 AM.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Fairfax County, Virginia

    And one reason it is extremely unlikely . . .

    I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
    a) Thirty regular season games
    b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
    c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
    In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by 4decadedukie View Post
    I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
    a) Thirty regular season games
    b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
    c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
    In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.
    With a Pw of .92 you get a 8% of going undefeated? That 8% seems really really really high. Wouldn't it be a lot lower?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Partly Orlando, FL partly heard Sandpoint, ID
    For all games(including 3 ACC tournament and 6 NCAA tournament games) Duke's chance of going undefeated. given a 92% chance of winning each individual game, is about 3.56%. To have an undefeated regular season, we have about a 7.54% chance of running the table.

    And of course, the reality is a 92% win chance overestimates a fair number of our games. So the odds of us going undefeated are rather long. Unless of course you live in Ozzie's world, which was a really nice place to reside last March/April.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Deslok View Post
    For all games(including 3 ACC tournament and 6 NCAA tournament games) Duke's chance of going undefeated. given a 92% chance of winning each individual game, is about 3.56%. To have an undefeated regular season, we have about a 7.54% chance of running the table.

    And of course, the reality is a 92% win chance overestimates a fair number of our games. So the odds of us going undefeated are rather long. Unless of course you live in Ozzie's world, which was a really nice place to reside last March/April.
    92% win chance is definitely a huge overestimation (as I know you know, already). Last year when Duke played a team as bad as UNC-CH at home in Cameron, we only had a 94% chance of winning. And you know most teams we play next year won't be that bad.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...
    No, I take full responsibility for that loss. It was cold & snowy here in the northeast. I ran out of Bar-B-Que Fritos and I was too lazy to stop by the grocery store for a bag. Plus, since the game wasn't on TV I would have had to listen to the game on XM in 10 degree weather.
    It was my fault, won't happen again. I have already stocked my pantry with Fritos.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by wilko View Post
    Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to...
    It happened last yr, I went to the State game.
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...
    Quote Originally Posted by PADukeMom View Post
    No, I take full responsibility for that loss. It was cold & snowy here in the northeast. I ran out of Bar-B-Que Fritos and I was too lazy to stop by the grocery store for a bag. Plus, since the game wasn't on TV I would have had to listen to the game on XM in 10 degree weather.
    It was my fault, won't happen again. I have already stocked my pantry with Fritos.
    I watched that game. While I won't begrudge any of you partial responsibility, I think it was pretty much of a team effort.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Fairfax County, Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    With a Pw of .92 you get a 8% of going undefeated? That 8% seems really really really high. Wouldn't it be a lot lower?
    I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).
    Last edited by 4decadedukie; 11-03-2010 at 02:12 PM.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I watched that game. While I won't begrudge any of you partial responsibility, I think it was pretty much of a team effort.
    I feel so much better after reading this thread. All this time, I've been blaming myself for that loss.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by 4decadedukie View Post
    I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).
    consider your 8.1% peer reviewed, and correct

    the GOOGLE never lies
    basketball is back, baby!

  20. #20
    Undefeated? Too many things that we can't really control come into play. Injury, hot team and Duke having a bad night... but I would bet that we have a really, really good year.

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