Explain the Duke Curse Please

[wgl1228]

I remember it has something to do with teams that beat us in the tournament having problems the next year but I can't remember if there is anything else to it.

[airowe]

I remember it has something to do with teams that beat us in the tournament having problems the next year but I can't remember if there is anything else to it.

This should help: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=24946

[Greg_Newton]

So should this.

[weezie]

If I 'splain it to you, then you fall to the curse.

Just steer clear of the crazy lady with the Duke gear on over there...

[DukieBoy]

So should this.

holy crap! how did you do that?

[JG Nothing]

holy crap! how did you do that?

http://tinyurl.com/632hcv

[RelativeWays]

I HATE the Duke curse. It makes it sound like Duke fans have no faith that their team can handle business on their own, they need some mystical deus ex machina to step in to handle past grievances and shortcomings. We didn't need the Duke curse to handle WVU, UNC or UConn this year, the Duke basketball team did that themselves.

[CrazieDUMB]

I have to say, I'm a bit bored with the Duke curse. Especially since Duke has been great during almost every year of the modern era, there are so many teams out there that have beaten Duke. Pretty much any negative story in college basketball can be traced back to Duke via the program beating Duke at one time or another. Schadenfreude is fun though.

[Indoor66]

I have to say, I'm a bit bored with the Duke curse. Especially since Duke has been great during almost every year of the modern era, there are so many teams out there that have beaten Duke. Pretty much any negative story in college basketball can be traced back to Duke via the program beating Duke at one time or another. Schadenfreude is fun though.

I agree with you - bored. I find it to be a childish and narcissistic reaction to unrelated external events.

[airowe]

I think you guys are taking this way too seriously. It's tongue in cheek.

[JohnGalt]

I agree with you - bored. I find it to be a childish and narcissistic reaction to unrelated external events.

Unfotunately for us, Indoor, I'd best most would characterize our much too frequent perusing of this Board to be somewhat childish and narcissitic, what with the rampant speculation surrounding 16, 17, and 18 year olds and all.

FORTUNATELY for us, they're all wrong. ALL OF THEM!

[SCMatt33]

I agree with you - bored. I find it to be a childish and narcissistic reaction to unrelated external events.

I think that it has gotten this way for a reason. It's a little childish, but entertaining, to point out immediate failures and bad luck right after a team beats Duke in the tourney, but it is applied WAY too liberally, both for severity of incident, and length of time after beating Duke. Take Florida as an example. Losing guys to the NBA immediately isn't all that big of a deal. Maybe 10-15 years ago it was, but looking back, it's a pretty minor thing, unless the program turned out to be a complete fluke. All Florida did after beating us was go on to have the best decade by far in its history. Florida had only been to the tournament 6 times before 2000 and have been there 8 times since. Missing the tournament in 2008 and 2009 is not part of a curse.

That being said, there are things that are fun to look back on and document. Going back to Florida, all of the Teddy Dupay stuff is totally appropriate for this sort of thing. The best example for an appropriate "cursed" moment is Huggy Bear falling in the airport just months after WVU beat Duke. On the basketball side, UNLV is the perfect example. We got our revenge on them and the program fell apart for a decade. You don't have to stretch to include things that aren't appropriate (such as randomly expanding the field to include people and teams who haven't beat Duke in the tourney), there's enough good stuff there to produce something entertaining and relevant.

[David]

The Duke Curse is a variation of what statisticians call 'regression towards the mean' - in English, what goes up, must usually come down. Given that Duke is a top-ranked team most seasons, the team that beats Duke is typically having an exceptional season (all is going right both on and off the court). It is hard to maintain this level in subsequent seasons. Thus, the so-called Duke curse...

[Rich]

I think that it has gotten this way for a reason. It's a little childish, but entertaining, to point out immediate failures and bad luck right after a team beats Duke in the tourney, but it is applied WAY too liberally, both for severity of incident, and length of time after beating Duke. Take Florida as an example. Losing guys to the NBA immediately isn't all that big of a deal. Maybe 10-15 years ago it was, but looking back, it's a pretty minor thing, unless the program turned out to be a complete fluke. All Florida did after beating us was go on to have the best decade by far in its history. Florida had only been to the tournament 6 times before 2000 and have been there 8 times since. Missing the tournament in 2008 and 2009 is not part of a curse.

That being said, there are things that are fun to look back on and document. Going back to Florida, all of the Teddy Dupay stuff is totally appropriate for this sort of thing. The best example for an appropriate "cursed" moment is Huggy Bear falling in the airport just months after WVU beat Duke. On the basketball side, UNLV is the perfect example. We got our revenge on them and the program fell apart for a decade. You don't have to stretch to include things that aren't appropriate (such as randomly expanding the field to include people and teams who haven't beat Duke in the tourney), there's enough good stuff there to produce something entertaining and relevant.

I always thought the Duke Curse should be limited to what happens to a team and/or their players the season after they beat us in the tourney. There was a string from 1986-1994 or so where you could pinpoint a specific event that happened to the team the year after they beat us in the tourney. It really seemed like teams that beat us were cursed. I agree that pointing out bad things that happen to teams years later (e.g., UConn this year) doesn't make sense and diminishes what truly seemed like a Duke curse.

[UrinalCake]

The Duke Curse is a variation of what statisticians call 'regression towards the mean' - in English, what goes up, must usually come down.

This is as good an explanation as any, combined with the aforementioned statement that you could find something negative to say about just about any program. The SI curse is essentially the same thing.

Also, I'm not sure what the technical term for this is, but when someone beats Duke (or is on the cover of SI) and something bad does NOT happen, no one ever points it out. Since you only hear about times when something bad does happen, it makes you believe that bad things are always happening in these situations.

[David]

Also, I'm not sure what the technical term for this is, but when someone beats Duke (or is on the cover of SI) and something bad does NOT happen, no one ever points it out. Since you only hear about times when something bad does happen, it makes you believe that bad things are always happening in these situations.

You just described confirmation bias - the tendency to favor data that supports a hypothesis (e.g., the Duke Curse) and ignore data that refutes it.

[jjh1080]

In discussions with others, many people pointed out that the curse was because of losses to other teams, not Duke. We are not the only team they beat the previous year. Thus, to them Duke fans looked silly for talking about the curse.

Plus, for the past some many years UNC fans laughed when they heard Duke fans talking about the curse, because they felt since Duke fans talked about the curse Duke was cursed, early exits and all. Duke broke the curse this year but...

I think the talk should be put to bed.

[brevity]

I HATE the Duke curse. It makes it sound like Duke fans have no faith that their team can handle business on their own, they need some mystical deus ex machina to step in to handle past grievances and shortcomings. We didn't need the Duke curse to handle WVU, UNC or UConn this year, the Duke basketball team did that themselves.

At first this statement made it sound like you didn't understand the Duke curse, but a rereading led me to your meaning. Interesting response.

I've long believed (and mentioned in passing a few times here) that "past grievances and shortcomings" DO ultimately get addressed, not by a curse but by future Duke squads. Take a look at the championship squads of 1991, 1992, and 2010: specifically, the teams they beat in the NCAA Tournament. It's partially a list of teams that knocked us out in previous NCAA Tournaments.

1991: St. John's (1979), Kansas (1988), UNLV (1990).
1992: Kentucky (1978), Indiana (1987), Seton Hall (1989).
2010: California (1993), West Virginia (2008).

It's far from perfect and hardly definitive -- the 2001 tourney run doesn't work here at all -- but it is fascinating in a "what goes around comes around" kind of way. I mentioned during Round 1 of this year's tournament that payback was inevitable in Round 2, whether we faced California or Louisville (1986).

[gam7]

A corollary to the Duke curse is that when no one beats us (i.e., when we win a national championship), the curse turns on us. And, in particular on our NC point guards:

'91 and '92: Hurley - car accident; NBA career over

'01: Jay Williams - motorcycle accident; NBA career over

'10: Scheyer - eye injury; NBA career uncertain

[RelativeWays]

The Duke Curse is a variation of what statisticians call 'regression towards the mean' - in English, what goes up, must usually come down. Given that Duke is a top-ranked team most seasons, the team that beats Duke is typically having an exceptional season (all is going right both on and off the court). It is hard to maintain this level in subsequent seasons. Thus, the so-called Duke curse...

Then logically that could be applied with just about any perennial basketball power.