Originally Posted by
Olympic Fan
I think the parallel between 1991-92 is valid in some ways. maybe not in others.
The '91 team started the season ranked No. 6 in the nation and fluctuated between 5 and 12 all season, entering the NCAA Tournament at the same spot it started the season -- No. 6. Duke was a No. 2 seed in the tourney, but was probably considered the strongest No. 2 since it was the in the regional with the weakest No. 1 (Ohio State). Interesting that Duke spent most of the season ranked behind UNC. Although Duke beat them twice head to head in the regular season, UNC routed Duke by 20 in the ACC title game and claimed a No. 1 seed.
The '10 team started the season at No. 9 and spent the whole season between 5 and 10 until March 1, when Duke climbed to No. 4. In the final poll, after the ACC Tournament, Duke climbed to No. 3 and earned a No. 1 seed.
I'd say the two season tracts were similar. In both years, Duke was regarded as a good, solid team, but was never really a part of the national championship conversation. I think in 1991 that was a large part due to Vegas. Really, you had to be there to understand the hype. They were being portrayed as the greatest team off all time (I remember USA Today ran an article in March, explaining why Vegas was better than the Alcindor or Walton UCLA teams or the Bill Russell USF teams). They were invincible and when Duke "vinced" them, it was an unbelievable upset. The 2010 Devils didn't have to do anything like that to win the title.
One other comparison is that both the '91 and 2010 teams kind of struggled to find their identity. The '91 team was a very young team that had to replace three starters from the '90 Final Four team (Phil Henderson, Robert Brickey and Alaa Abdelnaby). K had to break in freshman Grant Hill (he was like Kyrie in that we all knew he would be great, but the team had to learn to play to his strengths) and find two more starters to go with the freshmen and the two returning studs (Laettner and Hurley).
Kind of like this year, right? K juggled a lot of starting lineups in '91 -- Thomas Hill only became a fulltime starter in mid-February (about when Zoubek joined the 2010 lineup). Greg Koubek (Koubek-Zoubek ... another parallel?) was in and out of the lineup all year. He was out in the ACC Tournament, but back in as the fifth starter for the NCAA run.
But where the teams diverged is the next year. The 1992 team was almost intact -- losing 5th man Koubek and 6th man McCafferty (as well as backup centers Palmer and Buckley). It started the year No. 1 and stayed there all season, despite two losses and a slew of injuries. It started the NCAA Tournament as a strong favorite to repeat -- maybe not quite as strong as Vegas the year before, but still stronger than say Kansas last season or UNC the year before.
It's worth keeping in mind that the 1992 team, for all its power and success, came within a miraculous play against Kentucky in the East Regional finals from not returning to the Final Four.
And before we leave the subject, we should look at the similar parallels between 2001 and 2002. The 2001 team was higher regarded than either the 1991 or 2010 team, although Boozer's late injury did turn the title run into something of a surprise.
That team returned four starters including three All-American type players in Jason Williams, Carlos Boozer and Mike Dunleavy, plus a future A-A in Chris Duhon. They added a future first-round draft pick in Dahntay Jones and a great freshman in Daniel Ewing.
But they had to replace national player of the year Shane Battier and glue guy Nate James -- in terms of team chemistry, he provided a lot of what Zoubek and Thomas provided a year ago.
The 2002 team started the season No. 1 and spent all but four weeks on top, before finishing at No. 1 after winning the ACC Tournament. The difference is that when they needed a miracle in the NCAA Tournament, they didn't get one -- instead Bruce Benedict swallowed his whistle and they didn't return to the Final Four.
My point is that the earlier parallels should lead us to expect that 2011 Duke will have a great regular season and spend most of the year at or near No. 1. It should start the 2011 NCAA Tournament as one of the favorites, if not THE favorite to win it all.
But you just can't predict a one-and-done tournament. Somewhere along the way, Duke will face elimination and will either rise to the occasion as the 1992 team did against Kentucky or come up short -- as the 2002 team did against Indiana.