2009 UNC vs 2010 Duke

[chillfan23]

Strolled across this interesting article...what do you guys think?

[77devil]

Strolled across this interesting article...what do you guys think?

What do I think? I think 3 threads closed and 2 moved in one day is a record for board clutter.

[G man]

Strolled across this interesting article...what do you guys think?

I think we lose by 10

[left_hook_lacey]

I think we lose by 10

I agree. I think at Cameron we lose by 10, at the Dean E. Smith center, it could be more.

There was no one on our team this year or last that could stop Lawson, and everything ran through him. Not picking on our guys, but Lawson blew by everyone in his path when he was healthy that year, including our guys.

Add in the NBA talent coming off the bench, it's hard to doubt that team. That being said, it just shows how great of a coach Coach K is. I still think we're competitive in that game, and obviously, K won the NC the next year with basically the same team. I agree with the column, especially the part about giving the coaching edge to Duke.

[DevilHorns]

KenPom has Duke if you look at adjusted O/Rank & adjusted D/Rank

Duke adjusted O/Rank:123.5/1 adjusted D/Rank: 85.9/4

UNC adjusted O/Rank:124.2/1 adjusted D/Rank: 89.6/16

I personally think its a toss-up. UNC was on/off that year with defense. It would be interesting to see how the new Z and LT would face-up against Hans; also Lawson against the much improved Nolan. Put in the wrinkle of the improved Singler. Whats the heel answer there, Danny Green?

[COYS]

KenPom has Duke if you look at adjusted O/Rank & adjusted D/Rank

Duke adjusted O/Rank:123.5/1 adjusted D/Rank: 85.9/4

UNC adjusted O/Rank:124.2/1 adjusted D/Rank: 89.6/16

I personally think its a toss-up. UNC was on/off that year with defense. It would be interesting to see how the new Z and LT would face-up against Hans; also Lawson against the much improved Nolan. Put in the wrinkle of the improved Singler. Whats the heel answer there, Danny Green?

The two teams are complete opposites. Lawson would have had a much much much more difficult time driving against a far kore stout and tall defensive team. If the game is played in the half court, it's probably duke's. If it's played in the open court, well, probably the wrong shade of blue. People talk about how talented that unc team was as if Duke doesn't have players that could compare this past season. That's simply not true. Senior Scheyer was every bit the efficient playmaker that Lawson was, just in a very different way.

[DevilHorns]

The two teams are complete opposites. Lawson would have had a much much much more difficult time driving against a far kore stout and tall defensive team. If the game is played in the half court, it's probably duke's. If it's played in the open court, well, probably the wrong shade of blue. People talk about how talented that unc team was as if Duke doesn't have players that could compare this past season. That's simply not true. Senior Scheyer was every bit the efficient playmaker that Lawson was, just in a very different way.

Also, the casual fan will likely favor the light blue. Why? Because they were the story of NCAA basketball in 2009. Especially after their epic flame-out against Kansas the year prior. It was destined for them to get the job done this time. They were followed the whole year with the national spot light. Tyler this, Ty that. (not whining, we've had the same in the past... JJ this, Shelden that).

This year didn't really have a team that received the attention UNC did. Perhaps Kansas, UK, or Syracuse individually received half the attention UNC did.

[flyingdutchdevil]

No questions asked, UNC 09 was significantly more talented than Duke 10. Did you see UNC's roster? They were able to lose their best defensive stopper for the whole season and still win the whole tournament. That's not too shabby. If you compare the starting 5, UNC holds an advantage at 3 of the spots (PG, PF, C) with Duke only having 1 (SF) (I'd say the SG is about even. Nolan scored a lot more points and was a more important player to the team, but that's because UNC didn't need Ellington's to score all the time).

On the other hand, Duke 10 had the better discipline, better coaching, and better teamwork / unity.

In a 1-game situation, I think UNC would be favored but both teams could pull out a close victory. But over a 10-game span, I'd have to give the edge to UNC with 7-3.

We were efficient, well-coached, and played great D. But UNC won ALL 6 games in the tournament by 10 points! That's hard to beat...

[sandinmyshoes]

That UNC team did indeed roll through the NCAA. Once they decided to play defense, they were as good a team as we've seen in quite awhile.

Our champs could beat them, but I honestly don't think we could take a series from them.

The NCAA is a strange bird. Our team this year, if Kyrie gets close to expectations, could be better than our team last year, possibly better than 09 UNC, and yet not win a championship because of a bad shooting night, a key player fouling out of a game and so forth.

Every game in the tourney is like hurtling along a radical rollercoster ride to me.

[superdave]

Lawson is the difference here. If he controls the game, unc wins. If he does not then it's a toss-up.

Duke was 10x the defensive team that unc was. That unc group fell asleep for stretches defensively and was poorly disciplined. But they could score a lot and fast.

Remember Duke hammering unc for a lot of the first half in the Feb 2009 game in Cameron?

[NSDukeFan]

No questions asked, UNC 09 was significantly more talented than Duke 10. Did you see UNC's roster? They were able to lose their best defensive stopper for the whole season and still win the whole tournament. That's not too shabby. If you compare the starting 5, UNC holds an advantage at 3 of the spots (PG, PF, C) with Duke only having 1 (SF) (I'd say the SG is about even. Nolan scored a lot more points and was a more important player to the team, but that's because UNC didn't need Ellington's to score all the time).

On the other hand, Duke 10 had the better discipline, better coaching, and better teamwork / unity.

In a 1-game situation, I think UNC would be favored but both teams could pull out a close victory. But over a 10-game span, I'd have to give the edge to UNC with 7-3.

We were efficient, well-coached, and played great D. But UNC won ALL 6 games in the tournament by 10 points! That's hard to beat...

I see it differently. I know years are different, but I think I take a 2nd team all-ACC guard (Smith) over someone who doesn't make any of the all-ACC teams (Ellington.) I realize Lawson was fantastic, and I believe he was a 2nd team all-american and ACC MOP. Is that much better than our PG who was 2nd team AA and 2nd in voting for ACC MOP? Obviously take Hansborough over Zoubs, just like Singler over Green. Then the 5th matchup is a junior Thompson vs. a senior Thomas. Obviously one is better scoring on offense, the other better defensively. I don't think you can include UNC's best defensive stopper in the discussion as he didn't play at all. UNC had Davis and Zeller (for a bit) off the bench. Duke had the Plumlees.
I have a hard time with the argument Duke would have lost by 10 at Cameron and been hammered at the Dean Dome, when a not quite as strong Duke team in 09 lost by 8 at the Dean Dome and was up 8 at half before losing in Cameron.
I realize UNC 09 is considered the more talented team offensively, (though Duke was the most efficient team offensively in the country this year) I don't think there is much argument that Duke had the more talented team defensively. I think it would make a great theoretical game. If the game was slowed down to a pace favoring Duke 2010, do you like the chances of Roy adjusting his strategy?

[sandinmyshoes]

I think that UNC team is being sold short as a defensive unit. They were not very interested in defense during the regular season, to be sure. But once the NCAA rolled around they began playing very, very good defense. I remember getting a sinking feeling watching them in the tourney, because I had thought that stretches of unmotivated defense or a bad shooting night would knock them out of the tourney.

As it was, their shooting picked up from all their wings, and they stayed focused on defense. I think saying that our team was 10X the defensive team (speaking of UNC in the NCAA) calls for true blue tinted glasses and a heaping helping of hyperbole.

The Duke fan in me wants our guys to have been better. But looking at it with the least bit of objectivity just won't maintain that supposition. Now, this year, that's another story. We have the potential to be better. Coach K won't allow for the defensive lapses against lesser teams that UNC was prone to, and we have a deeper team than UNC 09.

[BattierBattalion]

KenPom has Duke if you look at adjusted O/Rank & adjusted D/Rank

Duke adjusted O/Rank:123.5/1 adjusted D/Rank: 85.9/4

UNC adjusted O/Rank:124.2/1 adjusted D/Rank: 89.6/16

I personally think its a toss-up. UNC was on/off that year with defense. It would be interesting to see how the new Z and LT would face-up against Hans; also Lawson against the much improved Nolan. Put in the wrinkle of the improved Singler. Whats the heel answer there, Danny Green?

Those numbers are misleading. First, they are normalized to that specific year in which those teams played. So a 120 O/Rank in 2010 isn't the same as a 120 O/Rank in 2009. Secondly, those numbers are normalized for the entire year. 2009 UNC really turned it on during the tournament defensively. Going into the tournament they were 35th in defensive efficiency. Their defense was so good during the tournament that they got up to 16th. That means in those 6 games they raised their defensive efficency for the year 19 whole places. Talk about flipping the switch.

As mentioned in this thread, their key was Lawson. Not just offensively, but Lawson wreaked havoc defensively in the NCAA tourney. Lawson, Davis' increased playing time, and less playing time for Tyler were reasons why UNC's defense was so much better.

On the flip side, Duke's defense actually got worse during the tournament, but luckily our offense got better.

That all said, I think 2009 UNC is better than 2010 Duke. Out of 10 games, Duke would win maybe 2 or 3.

[DevilHorns]

Those numbers are misleading. First, they are normalized to that specific year in which those teams played. So a 120 O/Rank in 2010 isn't the same as a 120 O/Rank in 2009. Secondly, those numbers are normalized for the entire year. 2009 UNC really turned it on during the tournament defensively. Going into the tournament they were 35th in defensive efficiency. Their defense was so good during the tournament that they got up to 16th. That means in those 6 games they raised their defensive efficency for the year 19 whole places. Talk about flipping the switch.

As mentioned in this thread, their key was Lawson. Not just offensively, but Lawson wreaked havoc defensively in the NCAA tourney. Lawson, Davis' increased playing time, and less playing time for Tyler were reasons why UNC's defense was so much better.

On the flip side, Duke's defense actually got worse during the tournament, but luckily our offense got better.

That all said, I think 2009 UNC is better than 2010 Duke. Out of 10 games, Duke would win maybe 2 or 3.

Didn't realized those numbers were normalized for the given year; thanks for pointing that out.

I still think its a toss-up. Lawson shredded us in 2009, but I think we have an answer for him with the 2010 squad as Scheyer and Smith were both much improved on defense (particularly Smith, IMO... remember the Cal game?).

[sagegrouse]

Duke 2010 vs. UNC 2009. I am not so sure UNC is better. Check out the boxscores of the two 2009 games, which UNC won by an average of ten points. Duke went with Lance and Kyle on the inside; got only 5-10 minutes from Zoubek and nothing from Miles. Hily cow! We played small against a team with two lottery picks inside.

We lost Gerald and EWill from that team, but got a much stronger Nolan and Jon in return. I think this is a much stronger Duke team than 2009. Lawson is still a pest, but Duke is much better inside.

sagegrouse

[COYS]

Duke 2010 vs. UNC 2009. I am not so sure UNC is better. Check out the boxscores of the two 2009 games, which UNC won by an average of ten points. Duke went with Lance and Kyle on the inside; got only 5-10 minutes from Zoubek and nothing from Miles. Hily cow! We played small against a team with two lottery picks inside.

We lost Gerald and EWill from that team, but got a much stronger Nolan and Jon in return. I think this is a much stronger Duke team than 2009. Lawson is still a pest, but Duke is much better inside.

sagegrouse

Sagegrouse, thanks for this post. Pomeroy's numbers are only slightly misleading. It is impossible to tell whether or not the NCAA as a whole was actually "down" last year or if Duke's 2010 competition was every bit as tough if not tougher than UNC's. At worst, Duke loses 6 out of 10 to '09 UNC. That's a 60% win percentage for UNC on a neutral floor which would be extremely high and definitely establish them as the better team. Those suggesting that UNC has a 70% or 80% win percentage are way off, in my opinion. I wouldn't even put Duke '01 vs. Duke '10 as a 70% chance of a win for Duke '01 even though I think Duke '01 is better than both Duke '10 and UNC '09.