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  1. #21

    Risk management

    All of this talk of probabilities is nice, but what this really comes down to is risk management. That's what K does when he starts running his slow down offense when leading towards the end of the game. And that is what you want to do when managing end of game situations, as well (in my opinion).

    The quants on Wall Street dealt in risk and probabilities but failed to pay attention to the most important thing -- not blowing up. In basketball, losing the game on a buzzer beating shot would be the equivalent of "blowing up" because the losing team has no chance of recovery. The game is over. There is no "next play." This is especially true in the NCAA tournament.

    Any end of game strategy should take into account the probability of "blowing up." Going to overtime and possibly losing isn't the same as the possibility of losing on a buzzer beater. Going to overtime is not a "catastrophic" event because you're still playing and have a chance to win. But losing on a buzzer beater ends the game and the season. You need to avoid that at all costs, and then play the probabilities in order to maximize your chances of winning.

    Maximize your chances of winning while minimizing your chances of a catastrophic loss. That's what risk management (and end game management) is all about, in my opinion.

  2. #22
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    Keep in mind Butler pretty much MAXIMIZED their attempt with their last shot. The ball was speedily redirected upcourt by Heyward and Howard set a perfect illegal pick to give Heyward that open look.

    I think in 10 scenarios with this purposeful missed FT something like this happens 1-2 times. The other times the ball cannot be taken down the court as effectively and then you have a shot thats considerably lower % (defense on the player, or not lined up with the basket, etc).

    3 seconds is plenty of time to get the ball up on a DESIGNED play from the inbounds. They are considerably more likely to have a lined up shot in this scenario. And you are damn well sure Butler (and any tourney team) has a play designed for this exact scenario.

    I hope Bill Simmons does an article about this decision. I think it was a great one, and it went completely wrong for us (they got the ball exceedingly fast to Heyward and he got a wide open look from half court).. and AND they still missed.

  3. #23
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    Another possibility...

    I didn't like the intentional miss. My concern was that some slight contact on a 50/50 ball off the rim or in advancing the ball up the floor results in a whistle (not one to harp on refs but they were definitely giving the underdog the benefit of the whistle). Now they are at the line with a chance to tie the game.

    I know the thinking is that every team has an end off game out of bounds hail mary pass for a good look in their playbook and nobody practices an end of game rebound to a shot play and so the confusion reduces the opponents chances. But we were about 6 inches from being on the wrong end of that confusion. Would have preferred to eliminate the chance for a loss but we won so K is still a genius in my book.

  4. #24
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    Brooklet, GA
    I believe that, like me, K just couldn't stomach the idea of overtime. I know I would have gone supernova and perhaps ceased to exist. Thus, K went all in and won the game. Maybe it wasn't the "correct" and "safe" call, but you know what? Sometimes you have to go with your gut and let things happen. I like the way it ended.

  5. #25

    Agreed

    Quote Originally Posted by Starter View Post
    If they really wanted to get cute, they could have attempted to hit the shot, and if successful, foul after the inbounds up 3 with like a second left.
    Agreed, I think someone did this earlier in the tournament to win and if I'm not mistaken wasn't it Butler? Wouldn't that have been an ironic ending.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    jyuwono, this is a great discussion point. But let's do a sensitivity analysis:

    Let's say there's a 33% chance of making a 3 off an inbounds play and 14% chance of making a long three off a rebound (slightly different assumptions). Here's the analysis:

    Intentional miss (assume 100% probability of missing):
    14% chance of Butler winning.

    Attempted make:
    Assume a 60% chance of Zoubek making the FT (i.e., 40% chance of miss).

    So 40% of the time, the scenario is exactly the same as the intentional miss scenario (14% chance of Butler winning).

    The other 60% of the time, Butler gets the inbounds play. So there is a 33% chance of going to overtime. In overtime, let's assume it's a 40% chance of winning for Butler.

    So the probability of Butler winning is:
    60%*33%*40% + 40%*14% = 13.5%

    So by those assumptions, Butler's probability of winning was LESS if Zoubek attempts to make the FT. The difference is very small, and the decision is VERY sensitive to the other assumptions, though. Bas
    Was there any chance that Z gets the rebound on a missed free throw?


    Mike Greenberg was going on, and on, and on, ... about the WORST that could happen if Z made the second free throw was overtime. I didn't realize that games could end in a tie.

    Another issues is the number of timeouts remaining. I don't think we had one, and I wouldn't have take one anyway to give Butler a chance to plan for its options. Without a timeout, I would be less comfortable instructing the team to intentionally foul on the inbound pass (assuming Z made the second FT), and putting the game into the hands of the refs -where they could call a shooting foul or an intentional foul - particularly if Butler gets to run an inbound play and catch the ball much farther downcourt (remember "Pacer" and Bryce Drew's shot for Valpo with 2.5 seconds in '98?) or at least catch it moving fast toward the offensive end ala Ty Edney (went the length of the court in 4.8 seconds in '95).

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Fish80 View Post
    Thanks to all for their statistical analysis.

    I don't think that Coach K was doing calculations to make his decision. The intentional miss (if indeed intentional)

    (1) forced Butler to use clock getting the ball up court rather than have the clock start when touched on a long pass and

    (2) put the game more into the players hands and less under the refs control.

    But has Coach K said that he told Brian to miss? In the post game presser, when asked if he missed intentionally Brian said "yup" and further when asked if he was free lancing he said "no, definitely not freelancing". The implication is that he was instructed to miss. Has K said anything to confirm that?
    On your point #2... I think going up by 3 and guaranteeing at worst overtime is the best way to put the game under your players control. Being up by 2 put the game entirely in Butler's control (can they hit a miracle shot? if so they win).

    As for the presser... I think it was very obvious that K told Brian to miss. He said something along the lines of "Brian always does what he's told" in a joking manner afterwards. I can't imagine Brian would take it upon himself to intentionally miss a free throw.

  8. #28
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    San Francisco

    Tough Call

    If you have a 1 point lead in that situation I think missing is the right call. Whether you're up 1 or 2, you still lose on a long 3.

    With a 2 point lead, though, I think I'd rather make the third, then foul on the inbounds if they get the ball close to halfcourt and make them hit a FT and then get a tipin to tie. Put Zoubek on the inbounder on the baseline, remember Butler had no timeouts left. They might not even get a good pass in.

    One other thing that I questioned in the last few seconds - originally at 13.6 sec K had Zoubek guarding Hayward as the inbounder. Did anybody else flash back to Laettner v. UConn 1990? I didn't like the choice given that Zoubek would have had a difficult time staying with Hayward had he managed to get the ball inbounds. I would have rather had Singler or Thomas guarding Hayward's inbound pass there. Of course Butler wound up using their last timeout, so it worked out great.

  9. #29
    I honestly don't care about math, and projections -- I care about winning basketball games. That shot almost went down, and then you can have all the equations you want. But you wouldn't have a national title.

    Nobody's really answered why they shouldn't have had Zoubek legitimately attempt the free throw, and then foul after the inbound pass. Barring a ridiculous Kentucky-Miss. State fluke -- which included a Wall violation that wasn't called -- I'd have to think that would be a strategy that would be far more likely to work. I don't get the rhetoric that making the free throw wouldn't have been an attempt to win, but one not to lose. But I'm not nearly as good at math, so I couldn't give you numbers on it.

    I love Mike Krzyzewski, as you all do. How could I not? I've been in his house, met his family, and he's done so much for my college team -- and for Team USA basketball! (I love Team USA basketball, for real) But I can't defend using that strategy in that situation, to expose yourself to a potential shot that was about a quarter of an inch from losing a championship. Of course I'd take overtime over that result if it came to that. One can only look at his reaction at the postgame presser when Zoubek confirmed that was a bench call.

    If that shot goes in, are you still defending the strategy? I guess you could, but it would be absurd. I think not enough can be said about the coaching job Krzyzewski did to build this team and to coach them all season. But that doesn't mean that the strategy we're discussing was correct. It wasn't. It worked out.

    Let's go Duke.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyuwono View Post
    [T]he intentionally missed free throw by Zoubek at the end of the game was a really interesting thing for me.
    It's very interesting, I agree. I disagree with your starting assumptions, however. I think a 33% assumption is way too high. There's not enough time. Your numbers also assume that, had he tried to make it, BZ would have made the shot. I'll also note that those who expect the refs to make a call on the pick are engaging in wishful thinking; that call in that situation is highly unlikely not matter what teams are involved. Since risk management should be about avoiding the unacceptable outcome rather than enhancing one's chances for success, theoretically I think K made the wrong call. What we don't know and can't know is the psychology of the team and how different approaches would have played out in that regard.

  11. #31
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    Feb 2007
    Coach K's response was to cover Zo. I don't believe K told him to miss, that was Zo's thinking and I believe Coach K wanted to take him off the hook.

    If it was planned he would have stated so. He did state he felt comfortable with it and that the shot would have been a miracle shot. My first response when I watched the press conference live was that he was covering for Zo. He focused in on the screen that Kyle was hit with. Pointed out that when the reporter was talking about the screen he was correct in stating that Kyle was hit hard (something like that). He tried to re-focus the discussion.

    But having read Coach's books and watching him for almost 30 years now plus the "shot", no way Coach calls for the missed free-throw. He knew the math, both free throws result in, at worse, a tie game and over time. He knows about miracles.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by dukeimac View Post
    Coach K's response was to cover Zo. I don't believe K told him to miss, that was Zo's thinking and I believe Coach K wanted to take him off the hook.
    Zoubek said it was a bench call.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Starter View Post

    If that shot goes in, are you still defending the strategy? I guess you could, but it would be absurd.
    Yes, I'm still defending the strategy if I believed the coach picked the strategy that I believed gave us the best chance to win. All the coach can do before the play is pick the path he believes gives us the greatest chance of victory. See my post above. On this question, I would have chosen to shoot the FT legit and try to make it, based on the values I assigned. However, jigger the numbers just a bit (which is easily reasonable to do) and the strategy that was used looks like the 'smart' one. Add the third scenario you mention -- make the FT and foul -- and insert the numbers, and that may indeed have been the greatest probability of victory, depending on how you assess certain factors.
    Last edited by throatybeard; 04-07-2010 at 01:38 AM. Reason: fix messed up tags

  14. #34
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    Baltimore
    Quote Originally Posted by dukeimac View Post
    Coach K's response was to cover Zo. I don't believe K told him to miss, that was Zo's thinking and I believe Coach K wanted to take him off the hook.

    If it was planned he would have stated so. He did state he felt comfortable with it and that the shot would have been a miracle shot. My first response when I watched the press conference live was that he was covering for Zo. He focused in on the screen that Kyle was hit with. Pointed out that when the reporter was talking about the screen he was correct in stating that Kyle was hit hard (something like that). He tried to re-focus the discussion.

    But having read Coach's books and watching him for almost 30 years now plus the "shot", no way Coach calls for the missed free-throw. He knew the math, both free throws result in, at worse, a tie game and over time. He knows about miracles.
    Interesting theory. I saw the press conference and to me it did not look that way at all.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by jyuwono View Post
    In any case, even if we lower the percentage, it's still better to intentionally miss the free throw as long as it's above 20%.

    20% x 40% = 8%.

    Can Butler execute a play to get a 3-point shot with >20% probability of making it? 20% somehow feels low to me.
    Actually, if you lower the percentage of making it off an inbounds play, you make it more likely that trying to MAKE the free throw is the right idea:

    Intentional miss: 8% chance of Butler winning (based on your assumptions)

    Attempted make:
    60% make FT * 20% * 40% + 40% miss FT * 8% = 0.08

    The smaller the difference between the probability of a made 3 between the inbounds scenario and the "scramble" scenario the more likely it is that attempting to make the FT is the right decision.

    And as has been said, this doesn't consider two additional sub-scenarios after a make:
    1. you foul a 3pt shooter and he makes it
    2. you foul a dribbler and give them only two free throws.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fish80 View Post
    Thanks to all for their statistical analysis.

    I don't think that Coach K was doing calculations to make his decision. The intentional miss (if indeed intentional)

    (1) forced Butler to use clock getting the ball up court rather than have the clock start when touched on a long pass and

    (2) put the game more into the players hands and less under the refs control.
    But has Coach K said that he told Brian to miss? In the post game presser, when asked if he missed intentionally Brian said "yup" and further when asked if he was free lancing he said "no, definitely not freelancing". The implication is that he was instructed to miss. Has K said anything to confirm that?
    Scheyer was interviewed on First and Ten, and said he heard conflicting instructions from the bench. It sounded like Zoubs was instructed to intentionally miss the second if he missed the first (clearly the right choice because a two point lead wouldn't have mattered since Butler was not likely to get close enough in 3.6 seconds to take a two-point shot).

    However, the instructions may have been different once he made the first - but were not clearly communicated.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Scheyer was interviewed on First and Ten, and said he heard conflicting instructions from the bench. It sounded like Zoubs was instructed to intentionally miss the second if he missed the first (clearly the right choice because a two point lead wouldn't have mattered since Butler was not likely to get close enough in 3.6 seconds to take a two-point shot).

    However, the instructions may have been different once he made the first - but were not clearly communicated.
    Could be.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Was there any chance that Z gets the rebound on a missed free throw?


    Mike Greenberg was going on, and on, and on, ... about the WORST that could happen if Z made the second free throw was overtime. I didn't realize that games could end in a tie.

    Another issues is the number of timeouts remaining. I don't think we had one, and I wouldn't have take one anyway to give Butler a chance to plan for its options. Without a timeout, I would be less comfortable instructing the team to intentionally foul on the inbound pass (assuming Z made the second FT), and putting the game into the hands of the refs -where they could call a shooting foul or an intentional foul - particularly if Butler gets to run an inbound play and catch the ball much farther downcourt (remember "Pacer" and Bryce Drew's shot for Valpo with 2.5 seconds in '98?) or at least catch it moving fast toward the offensive end ala Ty Edney (went the length of the court in 4.8 seconds in '95).
    We had nobody else in the lane (or at least nobody but Zoubek tried for the rebound). The odds of the shooter getting the miss are VERY small. Further, there's the possibility that Zoubek gets an over-the-back call if he tries harder to get the rebound. I'm guessing the probability of Zoubek getting the rebound is smaller than the probability of Zoubek getting called for a foul.

  19. #39
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane05 View Post
    If you make, the worst they can do is tie.
    Ask UNC fans about the 2007 regional final and what their chances in overtime were against Georgetown. Ask Memphis fans about the 2008 national championship and what their chances in overtime were against Kansas after the Chalmers shot. Both teams lost a late lead, went to overtime, and got pasted by their opponent. It is emotionally jarring to lose a late lead and go into overtime, especially on a buzzer-beater shot [as was the case with the Chalmers shot and would've been the case against Butler if Duke had a 3-pt lead], and most teams aren't in the right frame of mind to play the overtime period.

    Consider also the events leading up to the last possession. Nolan had just missed a layup a couple of possessions ago. Kyle had nearly air-balled a wide-open 15-footer on the previous possession and traveled on another late possession. Z in the postgame press conference lamented a couple of rebounds late that he couldn't grab. Duke, as is, was already tightening up late in the game [which isn't a criticism by me, by the way, as I realize that the vast majority of human beings would feel the pressure in such a tense, amazing game, and Duke overall played great, as did Butler]. I really don't think we wanted any part of overtime, especially if Butler had hit a buzzer-beater to tie and been buoyed by a raucous crowd, and I think it's possible our guys would've ended up thinking too much about some missed opportunities late and tightened up even more. Our true odds of winning in overtime were much less than 50/50, imo.

    With all that said, I don't know whether I agree or disagree with Coach K's decision to miss the second FT on purpose. My gut tells me that I would've asked Z to try and make the FT [no guarantee he would make it, of course] and then have the team try to foul immediately after what probably would've been a long pass attempt to at least the midcourt area on the Butler inbounds, but I really don't know if that is the correct percentage decision. The emotions and the mindset of our players as to what they could execute at that point in time and what they could execute in a possible overtime play such a large role in the decision. The emotions are complicated and something we can't simulate and can only hazard a guess at, as I did above.

    By asking Z to miss the free throw, Coach K also simplified what had to be done on the court. Instead of having two possible avenues of action (1. guard the inbounds attempt on a made FT; 2. guard the rebounder on a missed FT), K reduced it to one avenue. The value added of this task simplification in a such tense game could be meaningless or could be large. It's hard to say.

    Again, I have no idea what the the correct percentage play was. It's complicated with many factors involved. I only know that we ended up forcing a halfcourt shot that missed, making me very happy.

  20. #40
    People keep saying, "the worst thing that can happen is a tie".

    No, the worst thing that can happen is tie, and then we lose in OT.

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