Originally Posted by
CDu
jyuwono, this is a great discussion point. But let's do a sensitivity analysis:
Let's say there's a 33% chance of making a 3 off an inbounds play and 14% chance of making a long three off a rebound (slightly different assumptions). Here's the analysis:
Intentional miss (assume 100% probability of missing):
14% chance of Butler winning.
Attempted make:
Assume a 60% chance of Zoubek making the FT (i.e., 40% chance of miss).
So 40% of the time, the scenario is exactly the same as the intentional miss scenario (14% chance of Butler winning).
The other 60% of the time, Butler gets the inbounds play. So there is a 33% chance of going to overtime. In overtime, let's assume it's a 40% chance of winning for Butler.
So the probability of Butler winning is:
60%*33%*40% + 40%*14% = 13.5%
So by those assumptions, Butler's probability of winning was LESS if Zoubek attempts to make the FT. The difference is very small, and the decision is VERY sensitive to the other assumptions, though. Bas