NCAA Darkhorses

[A-Tex Devil]

So I am talking about teams that are going to be 4 seeds or worse that could make some noise, knock off a 1 seed in the sweet 16 and even make the final four. One team that I have seen twice in the past week is Baylor. They have every piece needed to make a run -- quick guards, good three point shooters including one great one, solid inside play including the nation's leading shot blocker.

I'll always wonder how Scott Drew convinces those kids to go to Waco, but considering where this program was in 2003, this is pretty outstanding.

Anyway, thoughts on others? Notre Dame with Harangody back could be a scary team to see (although I think Duke matches up well). I don't want to see Maryland in my bracket either, although they are very jekyll and hyde.

[Wander]

Murray State!

I agree about Baylor - they might be the #1 team seeded 3rd or lower that I do not want any part of, and that includes Villanova.

[mehmattski]

Actually I think Baylor will only barely qualify for your "4 seed or worse" restriction, the latest bracketproject projection has them as a 4 seed and they could potentially go up with a deep run in the BigXII tourney.

One team that will almost certainly be underseeded is Utah State. Ranked #21 overall by Pomeroy, the Big Blue have an efficient offense with a balanced attack (similar percentage of their points from 2 and 3). They also shoot the ball really well, particularly from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. They have also been good on the defensive boards. While their schedule has been weak (resulting in low rankings in Sagarin and RPI), they do have a win over potential 5-seed BYU in November. They should win the WAC tournament with ease and head in to the NCAAs with a 19 game winning streak.

Similarly, I could see Cal being seeded as an 8 or 9, and knocking off a #1 seed in the second round. Cal also has an extremely efficient offense, and have gotten those stats against the better teams of the Pac-10. Former Blue Devil Jamal Boykin has one of the best individual offensive ratings in the country, and has shot nearly 60% from the floor this year.

Overall I see this as a year when the committee, who are instructed to not consider margin of victory, makes big mistakes with seeding. Last year they did a pretty good job with it, and there were no "Cinderellas" to speak of. I think that changes this year.

[blazindw]

Baylor would be a definite darkhorse if they're a 4-seed. However, the way they're playing, I think they may actually get a 2 or 3 seed. Maryland could be a darkhorse along with Pitt or Georgetown, which I think will both be 4 seeds unless Georgetown wins the BE Tourney. Tennessee could make some noise as well.

[Daniel tosh]

If Notre Dame gets in with the way they are playing right now,they could surprise a few people.

[pfrduke]

Actually I think Baylor will only barely qualify for your "4 seed or worse" restriction, the latest bracketproject projection has them as a 4 seed and they could potentially go up with a deep run in the BigXII tourney.

One team that will almost certainly be underseeded is Utah State. Ranked #21 overall by Pomeroy, the Big Blue have an efficient offense with a balanced attack (similar percentage of their points from 2 and 3). They also shoot the ball really well, particularly from beyond the arc and at the free throw line. They have also been good on the defensive boards. While their schedule has been weak (resulting in low rankings in Sagarin and RPI), they do have a win over potential 5-seed BYU in November. They should win the WAC tournament with ease and head in to the NCAAs with a 19 game winning streak.

Really tough to tell how Utah State's performance will translate when they play a good team. The BYU game was many months ago, and also many months ago they had a home loss to St. Mary's. Since then, they haven't played a single team ranked (at least in Pomeroy) higher than 70th. After essentially four months of playing games against teams that are the rough equivalent of Rutgers, getting thrown up against a Georgetown (just as an example) would require a lot of adjustment.

[Tim1515]

Based on the bracket posted...put me down for Cal and Georgetown.

Georgetown runs a patient offense with good passing. They are the type of team that could be any of the big boys because of it. At the same time...they could lose first to a hot shooting mid-major.

I really think Cal could surprise some people.

[A-Tex Devil]

You are right about Baylor moving up. I was looking more at ranking than seed projection.

As a Duke fan, I don't worry about a team like Utah State. (1) because our good Duke teams don't lose to mid-majors (2 losses in 20 years, correct? Unless you count Cincy in '98-'99), and (2) I'll play anyone who is depending on the 3 pointer for success. We defend it too well.

[davekay1971]

Butler, probably not a Cinderella to anyone, could certainly make a run to the elite 8.

Murray State and Siena have nice squads.

None of them strike me as a legitimate possibility to make it to the final four, but they could all bust a bracket pretty hard.

[noyac]

If Cal wins 2 games in the NCAA's I think everyone will be surprised. I think they are not as bad as everone thinks but when you watch them you have to consider they are playing other PAC-10 teams. Are they really that good?

[rsvman]

What about BYU? Jimmer Fredette is the real deal (scored 45 in their game last night).

The last two tournaments they have been beaten in the first round by the same team (Texas Tech, if I remember correctly) and both games have come down to the last few seconds.

I think they are a better team this year. They lack a strong inside presence but have all the other pieces of the puzzle.

[pfrduke]

What about BYU? Jimmer Fredette is the real deal (scored 45 in their game last night).

The last two tournaments they have been beaten in the first round by the same team (Texas Tech, if I remember correctly) and both games have come down to the last few seconds.

I think they are a better team this year. They lack a strong inside presence but have all the other pieces of the puzzle.

Texas A&M, actually. I was at the game a couple years ago (and the 2nd round where A&M almost knocked off UCLA); and it was extremely hard fought.

I'm sure both teams are glad that they won't see each other in the first round this year. Second round (3/6 or 4/5 game) is a possibility, though.

[crimsonandblue]

Texas A&M, actually. I was at the game a couple years ago (and the 2nd round where A&M almost knocked off UCLA); and it was extremely hard fought.

I'm sure both teams are glad that they won't see each other in the first round this year. Second round (3/6 or 4/5 game) is a possibility, though.

It was a clean block. Clean, I tell you.

[pfrduke]

It was a clean block. Clean, I tell you.

To LA's credit, that picture* was on the front page of the sports section in the LA Times the next morning.

*or one very much like it. For some reason I have a recollection of the shot in the Times being a little more from the sideline, but that could just be fuzzy memory.

[arydolphin]

I'm going to take a team that will be in the 7-9 seed range that could make some noise: Northern Iowa. They are a very experienced team that went 28-4 and won the Missouri Valley Conference. They won't be able to outscore teams, but they really lock teams down on defense. A second round matchup between Kansas and Northern Iowa would be really interesting, for example.

[Franzez]

Baylor. They can run with anybody in the country, and they would be a terror to play in the 2nd Round.

Morgan State. They are a well coached team that doesn't get much credit for their talent.

[DU Band Prez 88]

So I am talking about teams that are going to be 4 seeds or worse that could make some noise, knock off a 1 seed in the sweet 16 and even make the final four. One team that I have seen twice in the past week is Baylor. They have every piece needed to make a run -- quick guards, good three point shooters including one great one, solid inside play including the nation's leading shot blocker.

I'll always wonder how Scott Drew convinces those kids to go to Waco, but considering where this program was in 2003, this is pretty outstanding.

Anyway, thoughts on others? Notre Dame with Harangody back could be a scary team to see (although I think Duke matches up well). I don't want to see Maryland in my bracket either, although they are very jekyll and hyde.

Baylor is now a #3 seed in today's Lunardi bracketology, would definitely be that high if they win the Big 12 tournament.

I think this tournament is going to be very, very much like 2000 and 2006 - another George Mason-type team in the Final Four is not out of the question.

Others to consider:
Mid-majors: Butler, Richmond and N. Iowa
Major conferences: Tex. A&M, Notre Dame, Tennessee

Still, so hard to predict, even after the brackets are out. Who would have ever predicted George Mason's run, or to a lesser extent, UNC as an 8 seed making the Final Four in 2000?

[Native]

Cornell - almost knocked off Kansas earlier this year.
Montana - had a guy score 42 in the Big Sky final.

[brevity]

Richmond in the Atlantic 10 -- but not that Duke has to worry. The Selection Committee can't resist the opportunity of putting them in a pod with Syracuse, for old times' sake.