The Official Krzyzewski Career Wins Vigil (903)

[throatybeard]

With the hullabaloo over the 1K game, I think the time has finally come when we can start counting down. Barring serious illness, assassination by Maryland fans, or unlikely rendezvouses with the New Jersey Nets, Mike Krzyzewski is around a season away from passing Dean Smith on the all-time wins list.

1) RMK 902
2) Dean 879
3) K 853, as of the Carolina game

At Dean minus 26, I think we're looking at something like the January/February border next year. A good postseason this year would accelerate that.

At Knight minus 49, you're most likely looking at something like mid 2012. Wouldn't it be awesome if Coach Knight is in the crowd for that. I think he'd do it. The PR would be superb.

Of course, you know what the Carolina fans are going to do as soon as K gets to 880. They're going to start talking about all-time wins at one school, which Dean will still hold. K had 73 wins at Army, so to make it the most at one school, K would have to keep his 25-30 pace up possibly into the 2013-14 season, maybe late 2013 season. 2014 would be his age 66-67 season. If he does that, he'd be very close to 950 wins. BTW, Dean retired a little short of his 67th birthday. (And on my 21st. FTW).

The all-time ACC wins list looks like this:

1) Dean 364
2) K 304
3) Gary Williams 178

I believe that excludes ACCT games. If someone wants to count out how many ACCT games both men have won, have at it. K has won 11 ACCTs and Dean 13, so that's 33 and 39 wins, respectively, right there just in those tournaments.

Dean minus 60 league wins is harder to forecast. Krzyzewski has one advantage and one disadvantage here. His disadvantage is that he "loses" four seasons at Army. His advantage is that he's spent more time with 14- and 16- game seasons and Dean spent more with 12- and 14-game seasons.

Six ten-win seasons would get Coach there, but then you're looking at 2016, his age 69 season. OTOH, just five twelve-win seasons would be needed.

Dean's record in the league was just obscene. He only lost 136 games; K is already at 133, and so will never have a better win percentage in the league. I guess you could argue that the ACC has been more competitive 1998-present than it was 1962-80, but I don't know if I would.

Coach is 147 wins shy of 1000. That is unlikely to occur before 2015 with even the rosiest forecast. If he coaches to age 70, I feel pretty good about 1000 wins.

Also, if K surpasses Dean, I submit that his new nickname be "The Provost." We can call him "The Chancellor," when he overtakes RMK.

[cbnaylor]

Nice work. Even if K doesn't break these records for unknown reasons, he still goes down as the greatest basketball coach in my mind. "I'm a leader who happens to coach basketball"-Coach K

[hurleyfor3]

At Dean minus 26, I think we're looking at something like the January/February border next year.

And whom do we always play in early February? Would that ever be tasty, passing Dean against them. I believe wins #500 and 600 were both against unc. #500 was the Wojo-hugging-K comeback in 1998.

The all-time ACC wins list looks like this:

1) Dean 364
2) K 304
3) Gary Williams 178

I believe that excludes ACCT games. If someone wants to count out how many ACCT games both men have won, have at it.

The ACC Media Guide has already done this. Going into this season, it's Dean 422, K 342.

Dean's record in the league was just obscene. He only lost 136 games; K is already at 133, and so will never have a better win percentage in the league. I guess you could argue that the ACC has been more competitive 1998-present than it was 1962-80, but I don't know if I would.

K has a higher ACC Tournament winning percentage, though: .730 (46-17) versus .716 (58-23). It's not inconceivable for K to finish with more ACC Tournament wins AND fewer losses.

I think of the ACC as being at its most competitive during the mid/late 1960s (State, Wake and USC were all pretty good, although most people just remember Duke and unc), then a quite long stretch from the late 1970s through the mid 1990s. Remember the ACC would routinely get six teams into the NCAAs as an eight-team league.

[Duvall]

Of course, you know what the Carolina fans are going to do as soon as K gets to 880. They're going to start talking about all-time wins at one school, which Dean will still hold. K had 73 wins at Army, so to make it the most at one school, K would have to keep his 25-30 pace up possibly into the 2013-14 season, maybe late 2013 season. 2014 would be his age 66-67 season. If he does that, he'd be very close to 950 wins. BTW, Dean retired a little short of his 67th birthday. (And on my 21st. FTW).

Boeheim will crush this, even if K does not. He currently has 846 wins, all at Syracuse.

[SilkyJ]

Also, if K surpasses Dean, I submit that his new nickname be "The Provost." We can call him "The Chancellor," when he overtakes RMK.

I only subscribe to one nickname: Coach K.

[hurleyfor3]

Boeheim will crush this, even if K does not. He currently has 846 wins, all at Syracuse.

So Boeheim's only seven behind K rightthisverymoment? With all the various Eddie Suttons, Lute Olsons and Jim Calhouns dropping like flies or threatening to I had been thinking K's "competition" had completely been thinned out. He might pass K this year!

[throatybeard]

The ACC Media Guide has already done this. Going into this season, it's Dean 422, K 342.

Dean minus 80 instead of Dean minus 60. That makes it tougher. Supposing an average season of 12-4 plus an average of two ACCT wins, you're looking at five full seasons just to get 70. And 12-4 is pretty lofty. This might require K to outlast Dean by an age-season or two.

Wait, those numbers don't add up. If he has 304 RS and 46 ACCT, that's 350, not 342. Oh, OK, that doesn't include the 8 RS wins this year. So it's 422 to 350 right now. Let's ballpark Duke at a 4-2 finish in the league and a 2-1 ACCT. Could be better than that, but he'd finish this year trailing by about 66 ACC RS + T wins. I still think we're looking at 2014 at the earliest, his age 67 season.

Come to think, how many NCAAT games did they play against league teams? How many "league wins" does Dean "lose" not having the Big 4 tournament counted? How many times have ACC teams played each other in a non-conference game in the RS, as we did GT in 1994-95? Well, this is getting a little silly.

[Duvall]

So Boeheim's only seven behind K rightthisverymoment? With all the various Eddie Suttons, Lute Olsons and Jim Calhouns dropping like flies or threatening to I had been thinking K's "competition" had completely been thinned out. He might pass K this year!

No, I think I was mistaken. He has 823 wins.

Serves me right for getting my information from Wikipedia.

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

Boeheim will crush this, even if K does not. He currently has 846 wins, all at Syracuse.

Wikipedia shows Boeheim with 823 through Wednesday.

[hurleyfor3]

Come to think, how many NCAAT games did they play against league teams? How many "league wins" does Dean "lose" not having the Big 4 tournament counted? How many times have ACC teams played each other in a non-conference game in the RS, as we did GT in 1994-95? Well, this is getting a little silly.

Don't know about the true regular season, but Dean has one other "off the grid" win against an ACC opponent: Virginia in the 1981 national semifinal.

[CameronBlue]

Don't know about the true regular season, but Dean has one other "off the grid" win against an ACC opponent: Virginia in the 1981 national semifinal.

And another against Duke in the 1971 NIT. Duke went 1-3 against the Tools that year.

[moonpie23]

Of course, you know what the Carolina fans are going to do as soon as K gets to 880. They're going to start talking about all-time wins at one school,

that gift card has already expired when Coach Knight ran the nose down...

they can say whatever they want, but it's a big deal and has ALWAYS been a big deal that deano had that record...


it's gonna chap the Tar Heels good if it it happens...

[-bdbd]

throatybeard: "...Mike Krzyzewski is around a season away from passing Dean Smith on the all-time wins list.
1) RMK 902
2) Dean 879
3) K 853, as of the Carolina game
At Dean minus 26, I think we're looking at something like the January/February border next year. A good postseason this year would accelerate that.

At Knight minus 49, you're most likely looking at something like mid 2012. Wouldn't it be awesome if Coach Knight is in the crowd for that. I think he'd do it. The PR would be superb.

Of course, you know what the Carolina fans are going to do as soon as K gets to 880. They're going to start talking about all-time wins at one school, which Dean will still hold.

...I guess you could argue that the ACC has been more competitive 1998-present than it was 1962-80, but I don't know if I would.

Coach is 147 wins shy of 1000. That is unlikely to occur before 2015 with even the rosiest forecast. If he coaches to age 70, I feel pretty good about 1000 wins. "

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DEAN WHO??? Throaty, kudos on the string, but I object to the title. Who ever worries about surpassing #2??? The "pursuit," if it is such a thing, is targeting RMK, The General, and first place all-time.

But yes, the heels will have some nit-picking way to focus away from K's achievement -- e.g. he's coached during a period of longer seasons, he's got a lower ACC win percentage, etc. But they'll know they've been beaten, regardles. A pretty tough pill for the snooty "entitlement" crowd there. BTW, another theme will soon pop up along the lines of "How soon 'till 'ole Roy passes K..."

In any event, I will predict now, that the day of the game when K is about to pass The Nose, the N&O will have a front-of-the-Sports-section headline/write-up on "Dean vs K" and focusing on every needling way that Dean was supposedly superior. It would just be so much in character for them.

Regarding relative league competitiveness, I would argue that NATIONALLY there was generally much less competitiveness before circa-1980, when the NCAA took off in the age of ESPN. The talent pool simply wasn't as deep then, as opposed to now with all of the camps, AAU teams, TV showing all of the games (spurring interest and showing star player's moves to be mimicked), plus big-money NBA dreams, etc. In the 1950's, 1960's, and even into the 1970's it was much easier for a coach to bring in a few top-calibur players and then dominate much less talented teams -- think UCLA, KY, UNC and just a few others.

ALSO, IMPORTANTLY, K HAS SUFFERED BY COMPARISON TO DEAN B/C DURING HIS "ERA" OF DOMINANCE MANY OF HIS BEST RECRUITED PLAYERS HAVE LEFT EARLY OR EVEN WENT STRAIGHT TO THE PRO'S. NOT SOMETHING EL DEANO HAD TO CONFRONT UNTIL THE VERY END. How many more wins would K have if he'd had Deng and Magette for another three years, Kobe and Sean Livingston for four, Brand and Avery for another two, and Jay Wil and Dunleavy for another one. We're probably talking another 2+ NC's in that mix...

Always very hard to compare eras, obviously.

[Newton_14]

The ACC Media Guide has already done this. Going into this season, it's Dean 422, K 342.



K has a higher ACC Tournament winning percentage, though: .730 (46-17) versus .716 (58-23). It's not inconceivable for K to finish with more ACC Tournament wins AND fewer losses.

The math is off. If K has 304 ACC Reg Season wins, and 46 ACC Tourney wins, then his total is 350, not 342.

[hurleyfor3]

The math is off. If K has 304 ACC Reg Season wins, and 46 ACC Tourney wins, then his total is 350, not 342.

I tried to make it pretty clear those totals were going into this season.

[throatybeard]

If next year's team is good, I'm beginning to think it more or less impossible that Krzyzewski passes Smith in a game against the Tar Heels. The "problem" is that we're doing too well this year.

He's at 856, or Dean minus 23. We have four regular season games left; let's assume we lose at Maryland and win the rest. Let's also assume about 5 postseason wins, 2.5 in the ACCT and 2.5 in the NCAAT, just as a working o/u. This would put Coach in the neighborhood of 864 going into next year, Dean minus 15. We don't know what will happen, but this is a reasonable working assumption.

The first Carolina game is delayed out of a "natural" rotation in the ACC because, realizing football is bigger than basketball in this country, ESPN likes to promote rivalry week or something like it the week after the Super Bowl. So this year, Carolina was our 24th game on the schedule. The 15th game was at Georgia Tech and the 16th home with Boston College. If we have our usual one-, two- or three-loss early season, this only gets win 880 somewhere into mid- or late January. Even in 1995, we were 9-2 going into Coach K's last game that year, the first league game, home with Clemson.

It's not impossible that we'd be something like 15-8 going into next year's Carolina game. But we'd all like to think the 2011 MBB team will be better than that.

[airowe]

Coach just passed the schnozz in ACC Road Wins:

- Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski moved past former North Carolina head coach Dean Smith for the most ACC road victories in conference history on Sunday. Krzyzewski earned his 134th career ACC road win and is now 134-86 (.609) all-time on the road in league play.

[hurleyfor3]

Going into the Final Four it's now

Knight 902 (K+36)
Dean 879 (K+13)
K 866

With our postseason success it's reasonable to project passing Dean right around the start of conference play next year, and passing Knight rather early in the 2011-12 season.

[Matches]

Not totally out of the question that K could pass RMK late next season. Would it be better for it to happen in a late-round NCAA tournament game (where it be more dramatic but might also be a distraction), or in an early-season game the next season?

[OldPhiKap]

Going into the Final Four it's now

Knight 902 (K+36)
Dean 879 (K+13)
K 866

With our postseason success it's reasonable to project passing Dean right around the start of conference play next year, and passing Knight rather early in the 2011-12 season.

Two more wins this year, 33 next year, and K catches Knight in next year's FF.

Just sayin'