Originally Posted by
calltheobvious
Um, no, I'm not kidding about the playcalling. I'm not arguing that the official's call was correct, nor, obviously, about the outcome of the play/series had the ruling been different.
I'm saying that given the circumstances, a run on 2nd and goal from the six had a higher expected pay-off than a pass, not least because the downside of a run is incredibly small. If Duke hadn't run the ball very well on that possession, I wouldn't have recommended a run there, but you simply can't ignore the in-drive rushing performance in thinking about the quality of the play-call. Nor should you decide that it was a good play-call just because it might have worked had the play been officiated better--clear hindsight bias.
Regardless, though, I think Cut's indignation here is a little overblown. If Miami had wanted to, they'd have punched in another touchdown at the end of the game. You can't while away the points Duke gave up in the fourth quarter just because they probably should have had an additional TD.
And not for nothing, but from a momentum standpoint the missed FG was far more damaging to Duke's psyche than not getting 7 there. Hell, had Duke come away with three there, the rage from that call might have given the defense enough hate-adrenaline to generate a stop that they couldn't have otherwise. But you can't alibi a missed 31-yd FG. You just can't.