Great post, I agree with your overall evaluation.
I'm excited about this team because we have someone who I think is the best player in the country in Singler, a smart, crafty senior guard who never turns the ball over in Scheyer, and a breakout talent in Smith who gives Duke a much-needed option to break defenses down off the dribble. I believe most great (championship-caliber) teams need to have at least 3 primary scoring options. Not only does Duke have that, but all three guys have plenty of experience to complement their talent.
As I have mentioned in other game threads, I believe the most important keys for this team are:
- limiting offensive turnovers
- developing a consistent scoring post presence (Miles and Mason, but more so Miles)
- developing secondary scorers (Dawkins, Miles, Mason, Kelly)
I believe this team's size and personnel will allow Duke to be able to count on a fairly consistent rebounding advantage. Defensively we will be playing more zone this season, but I think we can expect a solid defensive team, but obviously not a team that can play all-out man-to-man for a full game the way we've grown accustomed to with Coach K squads.
For this team to be elite and to have a good chance at the Final Four, it will come down to significantly improving our offensive efficiency compared to the past several seasons. Because of the talent of our 3 star players and the talent of the rest of the roster, including the freshmen, I am hopeful that we will see a much better Duke team in March than we've seen in quite a long time (barring those pesky injuries, of course).