Summer Movie Preview

[Udaman]

The pollen is almost off the trees. I spread mulch all weekend. The playoffs are here. That can mean only one thing...the summer movie madness is about to begin. Time for that "long Friday lunch" that allows you to see the blockbusters on the day they are released. Time for forking over $50 if you take your family to see Shrek 3 (unless you artfully sneak in food).

So let's breakdown the releases by week. We can call this the summer blockbuster party...because when all is said and done, that is what we'll have (lots of huge movies making huge money). It all starts off with:

May 4: Spiderman 3. The best comic book adaptation by far (though Batman Begins was really good) seems to only get better. Spidey 2 was better than a great Spidey 1, and the third could be the best of them all. This one easily tops $300M.

Lucky You: With the first blockbuster comes the first bomb. Umm...this is built like a "chick flick" except it revolves around poker, which most women really don't like that much. Plus, for poker enthusiasts, a fictional movie about poker does nothing - the whole point of poker is the excitement of wondering who will win. With a movie, you know it is fake (this is why Casino Royale disappointed me, at least the poker part). This one will be "lucky" to break $45M.

May 11: 28 Weeks Later. Yawn. Spidey will still smoke everything this weekend. Might break $40M, but doubtful.

May 18: Here comes Shrek to take on Spidey. There will be room for both. Shrek also likely tops $300M...though the competition will be fierce with next week bringing another major movie.

Captivity. Call this the "Hostel for people who want to see Cuthbert barely dressed." I won't watch it...but I bet it makes $15M in its first weekend.

May 25th: Now we have Spidey, Shrek and Pirates of the Carribean. Can all three break 300M? My guess is yes.

June 1: Knocked Up. The first romantic comedy of the summer. But will it play in Peoria? Somehow I doubt it...

Mr Brooks. This one actually looks pretty good to me with Kevin Costner as a serial killer. My prediction for one of the darkhorse films of the summer.

June 8: Oceans 13. I'll say this - it can't be worse than Oceans 12. Not possible. I think this one will actually be pretty good (they seem to have gotten the message) and will break $150M

Surfs Up. My kids are pumped to see this. I think it is another solid sleeper that could easily break $100M

Hostel 2. Who watches this garbage? Seriously?

June 15: Fantastic Four. I actually liked the first one (thought it was summer popcorn fun) and the previews for this one look pretty good. I think it will do fine (easily break $100M).

Nancy Drew. Will bomb, however. Teenage girls won't care. Under 10 don't read it that much.

I Could Never Be Your Woman. How far has Pfeiffer fallen? This one bombs as well.

June 22: Evan Almighty. The most expensive comedy ever made. But it will be worth it. Steve Carrell is on my short list of people that I see no matter what they are in (along with Ryan Gosling, Mark Ruffalo and a few others). Jim Carey is nuts for not taking this role on, and this movie will be huge. Amazing how far Carrell has come since the first one.

D.O.A. Dead or Alive. Women with swords on an island. Shouldn't this have gone straight to video game? Can't imagine this one breaking $40M

June 27: Live Free or Die Hard. I think this one struggles. Fact is Die Hard used to be the type of movie nobody really did, and now it is par for the course. The theme has been ripped and spoofed and redone to death. I like Bruce Willis, and I'll go see it. But I bet the critics really tear this one apart. It will have a big weekend...but not much after that.

June 29: Ratatouille. It's Pixar...so it should be good...but I also have a mixed feeling on this one. I think Cars slipped a bit..and Pixar is due for a let down. Then again...there is nothing really out for kids under 8 at this point, so it will have the market all to itself for the next month. I bet all said and done it will clear $200M, but I think the critics start taking some shots at Pixar on this one.

July 4: Transformers. Like Jason Evans, I was majorly luke warm on this until I saw the preview. I think this movie could do really, really well. The 8-14 year group will see this over and over. Another strong $200M candidate. Except that...

July 13: Harry Potter and the Order of Phoenix goes after the same crowd, and with the hoopla from the last book coming out the next weekend...I think Transformers will fall off strong the 2nd week. Phoenix will easily top $200M, but I don't think it does better than Goblet of Fire.

1408. My other dark horse candidate. Previews look scary as hell. I also really like John Cusack, so I am biased here.

July 20: Doesn't really matter because every kid between 7 and 18 will be reading Harry Potter (as will most of their parents). The movies that are out are

Hairspray - I think will bomb. Might do better than Phantom...but might not.

I Now Pronounce you Chuck and Larry. A tired joke that has been done before. Adam Sandler used to make really good comedy movies, but he's lost it a bit. Might have a decent opening weekend (because nothing else is out there, and it plays to the 25-40 male crowd), but unless the critics really like it, which they won't, this one will sputter quickly.

July 27: The Simpsons Movie. Cannot wait. Should roll in the D'oh! Pa dum dum.

August 3: The Bourne Ultimatum. The last blockbuster of the summer, and one that should do well. Matt Damon is a talented actor, and this is Mission Impossible done the right way.

Underdog: Why? Why? Why? This one will be a disaster. Kids won't get it. Adults won't like it.

August 10: Rush Hour 3. I've never understood the allure of Rush Hour...and I think finally this time most people will agree with that. I think this one struggles.

August 17: The Invasion. Yawn. Body Snatchers set for today. School is starting and nobody will really care.

That's it. I will say that Halloween is being released in August (which is amazingly stupid - in October it might actually make some money opening weekend), and the movie Trade (which comes out in September) looks amazingly powerful.

Otherwise, the summer movie marathon will be over, and we'll start counting the days to the Holiday bonanza with Bee Movie, Fred Claus (which looks hysterical), American Gangster, and others.

[Chard]

Thanks for the info. I'm really looking forward to Spidey3. I don't spend much money on going to the theater anymore. It's just not worth it. However, I will spend money on...Transformers. Yeah, I know, geek. I can't help it. This is my childhood on the big screen. I don't think it will translate well on the small screen which is another reason why I'll be there.

Honorable Chard spends money this summer mention...Pirates, Harry and Bourne.

[allenmurray]

There's no need to fear, Underdog is here!

Don't dis the dog. That is one bada** beagle.

[JasonEvans]

A couple comments--

I agree that Evan Almighty looks awesome. I saw some extended clips a couple weeks ago and was howling. This one will be huge, I think.

Ratatouille will be great. Mark it down. Pixar will have a bomb someday, but this won't be it. The film is written and directed by Brad Bird, the genius behind The Incredibles and The Iron Giant. Some people are sure-things. Brad Bird is one of them.

In early July you left out License to Wed with Robin Williams, Mandy Moore, and John Krasinski from The Office. Heck, half of the staff from the Office is appearing in this film. Moore and Kras are a couple getting ready to get married and Williams is the nutso preacher who requires them to go through all kinds of lunacy before they can tie the knot in his church. While I doubt it will be some $100 million comedy stud, I could see it pulling in more than $50 million and begin down the path of making Krasinski a real star (which could be bad for the future of The Office).

I'm also looking forward to Resurrecting the Champ with Josh Hartnett and Sam Jackson in early August. Story of a newspaper writer who thinks a homeless man may be a long-lost former boxing champion.

I've been out of the movie preview game for a few months, but I am sure I will see some of the films in this thread early. As I do, I'll be sure to let all of you know what I thought of them. This is the summer of the sequel. Its pretty likely that all the top films will all be from established franchises (Spidey, Shrek, Potter, Pirates, Oceans, Almighty). Aside from Pixar's Rat, I see the franchises as the top movies of the summer at the boxoffice.

--Jason "hmmm, maybe we need a pick-the-boxoffice-champs-of-summer game or poll or something" Evans

[Clipsfan]

Unfortunately, the reviews coming out for Spidey haven't been all that good, which may partially explain why Maguire is thinking about hanging up his mask for good. There comes a time when just redoing the same formula again seems to get a little old.

I should be seeing some prescreenings of the holiday movies as well, and I'll try to put some thoughts up here. Take what I say about Fox movies with a grain of salt, as I'm supposed to say good things I know that I will see 28 Weeks Later a few days early, and I'm hoping that it is good. I was a fan of the first one, and I'm hoping that the sequel lives up to the promise of the first.

[Clipsfan]

I also meant to mention Hollywood Stock Exchange (the website is www.hsx.com ), which is a fake stock exchange for the movie industry. It's both sort of fun (although you have to be really bad to actually LOSE lots of money) and gives an indication as to what the industry thinks about upcoming movies. If you do set up accounts there, feel free to say I was your reference so I get more fake cash in my account. My user name there is WilyFox (caps matter). You get to buy both movies and actors, with the movies being the risky play and actors being more of a sure thing. Feel free to let me know if you have any questions. I haven't been doing it long, and haven't had much time to look at it over the last few months, but did manage to grow my portfolio pretty quickly at the start.

[Udaman]

Jason - Thanks for including License to Wed. I got too caught up in Transformers to include that. I think it might do OK because people will go to see it when Transformers is sold out, or watch that while their kids see Transformers.

Also, had not heard much about Resurrecting the Champ - looks good (except I really, really, really don't like Josh Harnett).

I do like your predictions for summer blockbuster - which does the best. My top 5 would be:

1. Pirates
2. Spidey
3. Shrek
4. Transformers
5. Harry Potter

Wow - that leaves off Evan Almighty, Rattatouille, The Simpsons Movie, The Bourne Ultimatum, Surfs Up and Ratatouille. Top 5 is no gimme.

My predictions on flops (shows that don't do nearly as well as the studio hopes are):

1. Die Hard (might not break $100M)
2. Rush Hour 3
3. Hairspray
4. Lucky You
5. Underdog

My darkhorse surprise winners are

1. Surfs Up
2. Mr. Brooks
3. 1408

(though I'm reaching on the last two - clearly due to my own bias for wanting to watch these).

[bird]

with special effects in promos for Spiderman 3. Too unrealistic, too CGI-ish for my taste.

[JasonEvans]

Wow - that leaves off Evan Almighty, Rattatouille, The Simpsons Movie, The Bourne Ultimatum, Surfs Up and Ratatouille.

Wass this a joke or a mistake? Kinda funny either way.

-Jason "time for a top movies of the summer poll" Evans

[Udaman]

I'm typing double today...been that type of day.

[Dukiedevil]

Also, had not heard much about Resurrecting the Champ - looks good (except I really, really, really don't like Josh Harnett).

Udaman, I agreed with you completely until I saw Lucky Number Slevin. He was pretty funny in that movie. Now rather than detest him, I somewhat tolerate him.

[Udaman]

Will it break the 3 day weekend record? My vote...yes.

[DukeUsul]

You know my wife and I are usually all about the big blockbusters, often going to the theater on opening night, or the midnight showing the previous night if there is one. But you know Spidey just doesn't do it for us. I'm not sure when we'll see if it at all.

I'm definitely going to be in line early for Transformers and HP5. I was very psyched when I heard that they'll have the original voice actor for Optimus Prime. That alone will make the movie - that voice is second only to JEJ as Darth Vader as memories from my childhood.

We're not just into blockbusters, we also like the random ones. You know what was great? Hot Fuzz. If you liked Shaun of the Dead, you'll love Fuzz. If you haven't seen Shaun of the Dead - you need to. These guys (Edgar Wright, Simon Pegg) are comedic genius.

[Udaman]

Boy was I right on the early bombs. Lucky You won't even break $10M (seriously, at times you have to wonder who is running things out in LA. Did anyone really think that a movie about poker - where the viewers know that it is just a movie, and thus there is no real tension at all - would somehow do well during blockbuster season?).

28 Weeks Later won't break $40M.

More bombs on the horizon (I Know Who Killed Me, I Could Never Be Your Woman, Live Free or Die Hard, Hairspray, and I think I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry).

Early surprise will be Surf's Up. The previews look really, really funny, and my kids can't wait to see it. I'm also getting a bit more excited about Oceans 13.

[BlueDiablo]

I think Once is probably going to be the best movie I'll see this summer, and is also the best-reviewed movie of the year. Reviewers (and not just me) are ecstatic about this movie. It's still in limited release, but it's doing very well on a per-screen basis.

My review is available here and I've also posted my interview with the filmmakers here.

[BlueDiablo]

In early July you left out License to Wed with Robin Williams, Mandy Moore, and John Krasinski from The Office. Heck, half of the staff from the Office is appearing in this film. Moore and Kras are a couple getting ready to get married and Williams is the nutso preacher who requires them to go through all kinds of lunacy before they can tie the knot in his church. While I doubt it will be some $100 million comedy stud, I could see it pulling in more than $50 million and begin down the path of making Krasinski a real star (which could be bad for the future of The Office).

I like The Office a lot, but I saw a preview for this movie and it looked terrible. Robin Williams is becoming more and more annoying in each film, and if the previews are any indication, the annoying factor goes all the way to 11 in this one. Williams has had lots of box office flops, but he's also had plenty of flops ("RV"? "Man of the Year"? Come to think of it, Williams and Sonnenfeld really need to reconsider their collaborations). It wouldn't surprise me at all if this movie flops. Krasinski might have to wait a while to transition to movies.

[Clipsfan]

I like The Office a lot, but I saw a preview for this movie and it looked terrible. Robin Williams is becoming more and more annoying in each film, and if the previews are any indication, the annoying factor goes all the way to 11 in this one. Williams has had lots of box office flops, but he's also had plenty of flops ("RV"? "Man of the Year"? Come to think of it, Williams and Sonnenfeld really need to reconsider their collaborations). It wouldn't surprise me at all if this movie flops. Krasinski might have to wait a while to transition to movies.

I think that you meant to say that Williams has had both hits and flops, but just in case you're calling RV a flop, it did surprisingly well. I'm sure it turned an ultimate profit, but the only number I know for sure is that it brought in almost $72 million at the domestic box office. I'm guessing that you're confusing the quality of the movie (awful...I barely sat through it and I was on a 12 hour flight) with whether it was a flop. Man of the Year, on the other hand, only brought in $37 million and I don't know that it will turn an ultimate profit.

[DevilAlumna]

I like The Office a lot, but I saw a preview for this movie and it looked terrible. Robin Williams is becoming more and more annoying in each film, and if the previews are any indication, the annoying factor goes all the way to 11 in this one. Williams has had lots of box office flops, but he's also had plenty of flops ("RV"? "Man of the Year"? Come to think of it, Williams and Sonnenfeld really need to reconsider their collaborations). It wouldn't surprise me at all if this movie flops. Krasinski might have to wait a while to transition to movies.

RV was awful. G*dawful. This next movie looks even worse, though I didn't think that was possible.

However, Williams has been decent in his non-comedic movies -- I really liked Insomnia, set in Alaska, pitting him against Al Pacino. I don't know if I'd call Death to Smoochy a comedy either, but I love that movie more and more each and every time I watch it.

And, I had the amazing fortune to get to see him doing standup, just a week ago today. (He uses Seattle as a testing ground for new material; he scheduled one show, and ended up doing 3. Same thing happened 2-3 years ago.) If he comes to a town near you, GO SEE THE SHOW. For one, he was his usual, manic, hilarious self -- my sides hurt for two days, from laughing so hard. And for two(?), it's Robin Williams -- the man is, even now, a comic legend. One day, you'll be able to tell your kids you saw Mork in person. And they'll mock you endlessly for saying "mork" with a straight face.

[JasonEvans]

I think that you meant to say that Williams has had both hits and flops, but just in case you're calling RV a flop, it did surprisingly well. I'm sure it turned an ultimate profit, but the only number I know for sure is that it brought in almost $72 million at the domestic box office. I'm guessing that you're confusing the quality of the movie (awful...I barely sat through it and I was on a 12 hour flight) with whether it was a flop. Man of the Year, on the other hand, only brought in $37 million and I don't know that it will turn an ultimate profit.

RV will certainly turn a profit (though Hollywood can fudge the books to make anything look like a loser). RV cost about $50 million to make and you can bet they spent another 30 million or so on marketing, prints, and other costs associated with putting the movie into theaters. It made another 15 million in foreign boxofffice ticket sales and was somewhat successful on DVD.

Man of the Year almost certainly lost money. Most estimates are that it cost about $65 million to make and probably another 20 million or so to get it into theaters. It made just 37 million in the US and a paltry 3 million in overseas boxoffice (a movie about a bungling US president didn't sell well overseas? I'm shocked!). It did nothing on DVD either so I am betting this film lost a lot of money.

Robin Williams track record as a star of a live-action film is not good lately. He's done fine as a voice actor in Happy Feet and as a bit player in Night at the Museum, but when he is a main character it is not good news.

- The Night Listener bombed.
- The Final Cut was so strange, it never really made it into wide release.
- One Hour Photo was also strange and never found much of an audience, though critics liked it and I thought he was good in it.
- Insomnia was great, and was a decent boxoffice hit. But it was certainly not a comedy.
- Death to Smoochy tanked at the boxoffice in a big way. I thought it had its ups and downs.
- Bicentennial Man was a disappointment, making just $58 million when Williams was thought to be a biig star.
- Jacob the Liar did very little boxoffice and was more an art-house film than mainstream.

You have to go back to Patch Adams in 1999 to find a film starring Williams that made more than $75 million dollars. Yikes!

Still, I will be rooting for License to Wed as I love all those Office folks and I think it would be good if Robin Williams would get back to his comedy roots.

-Jason "Williams has always chosen unusual movies-- anyone remember Toys or What Dreams May Come?" Evans

[DevilAlumna]

June 27: Live Free or Die Hard. I think this one struggles. Fact is Die Hard used to be the type of movie nobody really did, and now it is par for the course. The theme has been ripped and spoofed and redone to death. I like Bruce Willis, and I'll go see it. But I bet the critics really tear this one apart. It will have a big weekend...but not much after that.

Not a good sign that I saw the TV preview for this and my first thought was, "my goodness, that looks as bad as Transporter 2, with even worse special effects." I mean, at least Jason Statham was still good-lookin' and drove a nice car.