MD game

[Troublemaker]

"but how are we going to score?"

this year's unending question.

Word. It's especially tough against Maryland because Greg, our best shooter, is going to have a 6'5" athletic guy in his face, whether it be Strawberry, Vasquez, or Jones. Penetration won't be so easy for Markie, either. And Jon has to deal with what Greg deals with as well. We won't know what we're going to get with Josh, as always. This would be the kind of game where it'd be really nice to get some scoring production from Lance/Dave off of midrange shots or drives. They're probably a year away, though.

[Clipsfan]

Word. It's especially tough against Maryland because Greg, our best shooter, is going to have a 6'5" athletic guy in his face, whether it be Strawberry, Vasquez, or Jones. Penetration won't be so easy for Markie, either. And Jon has to deal with what Greg deals with as well. We won't know what we're going to get with Josh, as always. This would be the kind of game where it'd be really nice to get some scoring production from Lance/Dave off of midrange shots or drives. They're probably a year away, though.

I don't know whether having a taller guy guarding Greg makes as much of a difference as you'd think. Greg tends to take his shots in the flow of the game, not when someone is closely guarding him. He takes them in transition, or when he's not closely guarded after a screen or a lazy moment by his defender. If he was the sort to try to get the shot off by dribbling and stepping back etc, then it would be a bigger issue. That said, I think the question for every game we play is going to be: Where do the points come from?

[Troublemaker]

I don't know whether having a taller guy guarding Greg makes as much of a difference as you'd think. Greg tends to take his shots in the flow of the game, not when someone is closely guarding him. He takes them in transition, or when he's not closely guarded after a screen or a lazy moment by his defender. If he was the sort to try to get the shot off by dribbling and stepping back etc, then it would be a bigger issue. That said, I think the question for every game we play is going to be: Where do the points come from?

Good point. It's still a factor because taller, more athletic players can recover better to challenge shots after being screened. There's a psychological impact as well. When a shooter knows he can get his shot blocked, there's a tendency to rush shots or arc it higher than normal, which leads to misses.

[smklin]

"This would be the kind of game where it'd be really nice to get some scoring production from Lance/Dave off of midrange shots or drives"

i totally agree on that point troublemaker, but i just keep on seeing those two being hesitant with their shots and when they do go up with it, they're not confident. It was nice to see lance two games ago take it into two defenders, draw the foul, and finish as he falls to the floor. really showed why he was such a big recruit. as far as the taller defenders issue goes, i tend to agree with clipsfan. paulus has been taking open 3's. when he does create off the dribble, he almost always ends it with a floater from the middle of the lane. my prediction is that this is going to be a breakout game for demarcus.

[smklin]

Does the new wrinkle in the offense tip the scales in Duke's favor? I don't think Duke ran the weave at MD.

i think the new weave is a great addition for this part of the season. we were struggling so much with late-game stagnation, and this has done a lot to alleviate that. it just creates a lot of motion and opportunities for the open jumper or for a pick and roll for josh.

[heyman25]

We need some 12 to 15 ft shot attempts. Both Scheyer and Henderson are quite good at this. It would be great to shoot well from 3 pt land,but I think we can score on Maryland by dribble penetration. Josh's line drive shots are going to miss more than going in. I think our defense will be good though Maryland will pound it into the paint. If we block out well and limit our turnovers I think we stand a good chance of a home win.

[riverside6]

Well, for at least the 3rd time this season (that I can remember), Duke goes into this matchup with the Efficiency Predicted Score being a tie. The other two were Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech at the beginning of the season.

I just don't know what to expect in this matchup, but I have to believe that how Paulus plays, both shooting the ball and handling the MD defensive pressure is the key.

Go Duke!

[mus074]

Rebounding will be the biggest factor this game. Maryland's success has been unusually highly correlated to rebounding, and they are actually pretty bad it on a season average basis. If Duke outhustles Maryland for rebounds, we have our best shot of winning.

[mus074]

I think Gary will have watched some tape of this, though. I expect Maryland to be the best prepared for our weave of all teams yet.

[DankeShane]

I just hope we really come out amped up for this game. I know it's probably a cliche and can sometimes backfire if emotions get to high, but my impression of our games with Maryland over the past 3 years or so is that we come out a little too "cool, calm, and collected" whereas MD looks like they've been strapped into restraint chairs Clockwork Orange-style, and have just been forced to watch 6 hours worth of doctored footage of Duke players killing puppies and assaulting grandmas.

I know that as fans we like to rib MD for not being one of our rivals, but the players really need to treat it as such in order to match the fevered intensity Gary has brainwashed into them vs. us.

[mus074]

I just hope we really come out amped up for this game. I know it's probably a cliche and can sometimes backfire if emotions get to high, but my impression of our games with Maryland over the past 3 years or so is that we come out a little too "cool, calm, and collected" whereas MD looks like they've been strapped into restraint chairs Clockwork Orange-style, and have just been forced to watch 6 hours worth of doctored footage of Duke players killing puppies and assaulting grandmas.

I know that as fans we like to rib MD for not being one of our rivals, but the players really need to treat it as such in order to match the fevered intensity Gary has brainwashed into them vs. us.

Last year they came to our place and folded like a cheap, sweaty suit. We won 76-52 and it wasn't even that close.

Pomeroy gives us 5 points, Vegas gives us 6 and at Tradesports people are (a) buying Duke minus 5.5 contracts for 51 and (b) buying Duke straight up for 70.5. The money really likes us here.

[Duke15304]

they are tough matchup and they are playing real well, but so are we, its a rivarly game, its at cameron, i think its a game we can win

[jacone21]

I think Gary will have watched some tape of this, though. I expect Maryland to be the best prepared for our weave of all teams yet.

Agreed. This may also be the first game of his career in which Greg is going to be guarded as an outside threat. That last game has really called attention to his red-hot shooting from outside the arc. I bet Gary has talked about shutting Greg down, and he's probably the first coach to do it this year. I don't expect too many of those wide open looks for Greg in this game. If GP can recognize that and maybe use a little pump fake from time to time, he might be able to create some breakdowns with penetration. It would be really nice if Jon can pick up the 3PT slack.

[gw67]

The Terps have the best three-point defense in the ACC (30.1%). For the last 2-3 years, they have been terrible and this has been a point of emphasis. Vasquez and Hayes are tall, have long arms and have begun to play decent defense. Having said that, ND and UVA shot lights out from behind the arc for portions of their games.

gw67

[mus074]

Agreed. This may also be the first game of his career in which Greg is going to be guarded as an outside threat. That last game has really called attention to his red-hot shooting from outside the arc. I bet Gary has talked about shutting Greg down, and he's probably the first coach to do it this year. I don't expect too many of those wide open looks for Greg in this game. If GP can recognize that and maybe use a little pump fake from time to time, he might be able to create some breakdowns with penetration. It would be really nice if Jon can pick up the 3PT slack.

If his man comes out to guard him and we try the weave, we should get better interior looks of Nelson, Henderson, Thomas and McRoberts breaking to the ball. As good as we are when GP gets open looks, we look even better when we get interior passing lanes. That makes our offense click, because it creates spacing and flow with the other players. Relying on outside shooting can be streaky and is difficult to reignite once momentum is lost. Interior passing gets everyone moving without the ball, generates fouls and keeps the momentum in more players. Balance can be our great strength, which is a huge improvement from recent years.

[mus074]

The Terps have the best three-point defense in the ACC (30.1%). For the last 2-3 years, they have been terrible and this has been a point of emphasis. Vasquez and Hayes are tall, have long arms and have begun to play decent defense. Having said that, ND and UVA shot lights out from behind the arc for portions of their games.

gw67

Maryland's defense allows only 29.2% 3pt shooting on the year, which is 3rd in the nation. They also allow very few attempts as a ratio of FGAs. However, the offenses they have played rank SOS of 43rd, so they're not necessarily world beaters. For a point of reference our D allows only 29.8% 3pt shooting (8th) against the no. 2 offensive SOS.

Maryland's offense and defense are both highly correlated with rebounding. If they want to come out and guard GP and JS at the arc, let em. We need to scoop up the boards to win this game.

[jacone21]

Just had a look at the ESPN schedule tonight. Looks like Nova at UConn is the 7:00 game. Don't expect to see the first few minutes of the Duke game. The last few 9:00 games on ESPN have picked up at about the 18 minute mark. Let's hope that's as bad as it gets tonight. But don't worry, they'll be sure to give you a Program Alert on the Bottom Line presented by Outback Steakhouse. And if the first game goes to OT, you can at least look for the 30 at 30 update.

[dukestheheat]

again, we become much more competitive versus MD if we control our turnovers and also keep them from running; they are athletic, slash, and those types of teams last couple years have given duke trouble.

i see duke controlling the to's and holding the game to a lower score.

GO DUKE!

dth.