This site predicts Duke preseason #1

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't mind being under the radar again.

[El_Diablo]

Maybe they saw the Villanova game.

[bluebear]

Another article on the site has Duke #3..even with losing G...

[Jarhead]

There's a retired Nun at a convent in Alexandria, VA that owns a hamster that predicts anything better than MSNBC Sports, or even ESPN.

[Icarus09]

There's a retired Nun at a convent in Alexandria, VA that owns a hamster that predicts anything better than MSNBC Sports, or even ESPN.

And where does it have us ranked next year? I need to start preparing now...

[gumbomoop]

Per NBC Sports these are the 15 teams to watch next year. Where the f*** is Duke??? I will heretofore disregard anything MSNBC sports has to say about anything. They list the Tar Heels and Wake. This is such bull sh*t.

First, here's the link, which is worth a gander, even if it is, ummmm, inconsistent: http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/3152981/

There are actually 2 stories here: the "Beyond the Arc" list of top 25 is rather more sensible than what dukeforester here refers to, namely, the "Early Contenders" piece.

This latter list is pretty wacky, starting with a glance at admirable but hardly preseason top 6-ish FSU! The idea that FSU won't miss a beat in Douglas' departure is dubious in the extreme. They do indeed have some fine fellows returning, and a future star in Michael Snaer, but replacing Douglas is tough.

But most wacky is absence not only of Duke but 'Nova. In the "Beyond the Arc" list, however, Duke is #3 and 'Nova #11, probably a tad high for us [unless...], low for 'Nova.

[-jk]

I'll say it again: any projection before next year's rosters are set are futile. Fun, perhaps, but futile.

And definitely not worth getting worked up over.

-jk

[gumbomoop]

I'll say it again: any projection before next year's rosters are set are futile. Fun, perhaps, but futile.

And definitely not worth getting worked up over.

-jk

Fellow posters: Mod -jk is a Grinch-like party pooper, all the more insufferable for being sort of correct. Press on; have fun; ignore the poop.

[Icarus09]

I'll say it again: any projection before next year's rosters are set are futile. Fun, perhaps, but futile.

And definitely not worth getting worked up over.

-jk

Of course it's futile. Do we really ever do anything on this board besides talk (which I love by the way)? I like to think of DBR as one big support group for all those people out there who are afflicted with the Duke obsession.

[G man]

He had us second behind Kansas if Gerald does not leave

[whereinthehellami]

Im not that familiar with Kansas and I'm not really that impressed, so what am I missing? Collins and Aldrich are really good but what is there after that? They play good D and have some length but I don't think that is enough to be a title contender. I would take UNC over them. UNC has enough to throw at Collins and Aldrich to shut them down, with much more talent to spare.

MSU and KY (with Wall) would be my early favorites. MSU loses Suton and Walton but I think they have some tough, talented frontcourt players that will lessen that blow. And I think Lucas looks special. Throw in the athletic Roe, Morgan, and Summers and they will be a tough matchup.

KY has Meeks, Patterson 6-8, Cousins 6-10, and Orton 6-9. If they add Wall to what is probably the best frontcourt in the country, they are big and athletic. Outside shooting might be a little questionable but I like their athletiscm and frontcourt.

[proelitedota]

Similar article from rivals.com.

http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/...asp?CID=933183

[quickgtp]

If they assume G is leaving then I am fine with it. If G stays I see us as maybe a top 10 team. If G leaves, maybe top 20. No PG, no big and not much athleticism...not good.

[gumbomoop]

If they assume G is leaving then I am fine with it. If G stays I see us as maybe a top 10 team. If G leaves, maybe top 20. No PG, no big and not much athleticism...not good.

We have an honest, but quite substantial, difference of opinion.

I grant you that we have real question marks, as of this moment the PG issue in particular. As for bigs, I've posted regularly, and as constructively critical as I know how, about the several inconsistencies of LT and Z. Each had his moments, but too few. Further, I've posted that I think Z should redshirt, for his and team's intermediate [i.e., '10-'11 season] benefit. He's still a project, with real, but as yet clearly unrealized, upside. He needs skills development. But I don't expect a redshirt year for him, so I'll predict situation minutes for him next year, even if he starts some of the time. Ditto for LT, who could become a Dave McClure next year. Is that overly optimistic? I don't think so, but it's arguable.

But we got 2 other bigs, the MPs. Many posters this year plugged for more PT for MP1, and Singler's on record as in MP1's ear toward improvement. Perhaps more than you - which I can only assume, given the ref to "no big" - I was actually pretty impressed with MP2's athleticism and smarts in the McD All-Am game. I think MP2, and MP1, both got some game. MP2 can surely get real minutes at both 4 and 5-spots. I realize you are not nearly so optimistic on these points.

Nor on the overall athleticism of the team. Well, I've also posted that I see real improvement from the very athletic Nolan and EWill as key to our season. I recall K/coaches reported as having told Scheyer his soph year that he was deferring too much, that he was recruited to play like a star. My opinion is that Nolan and EWill need to be told same thing. I believe it will harm the team if Nolan is as tentative as this year. He made some wonderful - very athletic - drives this year, but of course far too few.

The athleticism of JS and KS is underappreciated, too. Neither "looks" athletic, probably not bouncy enough and not enough hops, but we can all think of a few amazing[ly athletic] plays by JS; and KS is - surely - one of a very few leading candidates for ACC POY next season. Also preseason All-Am. Yes?

So, halucinating for your and others' benefit, I repeat that, even in so-called "worst-case" scenario - no G/Wall/Bledsoe, and therefore no traditional solution to PG issue - I expect us to be better next season. Preseason top 7.

[geraldsneighbor]

I'd like some feedback on some of my expectations for next season of our top players if we lose G. Statistically:
Singler 19 pts 9 reb
Scheyer 15 pts 3 apg
Smith 11 pts 3 apg
Williams 9 pts 5 reb


Obviously it is highly contingent on if we get a PG and if we get anything from MP2. I think for the most part they are reasonable progressions. You figure Scheyer won't start ACC play shooting 20% again from the field. Then, you look at Kyle who I think is on a mission to show he is the best player in the conference next year. I like Nolan to progress from 5 ppg as a fresh to 8 as a soph to 11 as a junior who will have added responsibilities and move back to a natural position on the wing. Elliot will develop his jump shot and I think he is the biggest wild card of all of them. If he gets a midrange game I could see his sophomore year going very similarly to that of Gerald averaging near 12 a contest.

Thoughts?

[whereinthehellami]

We have an honest, but quite substantial, difference of opinion.

I grant you that we have real question marks, as of this moment the PG issue in particular. As for bigs, I've posted regularly, and as constructively critical as I know how, about the several inconsistencies of LT and Z. Each had his moments, but too few. Further, I've posted that I think Z should redshirt, for his and team's intermediate [i.e., '10-'11 season] benefit. He's still a project, with real, but as yet clearly unrealized, upside. He needs skills development. But I don't expect a redshirt year for him, so I'll predict situation minutes for him next year, even if he starts some of the time. Ditto for LT, who could become a Dave McClure next year. Is that overly optimistic? I don't think so, but it's arguable.

But we got 2 other bigs, the MPs. Many posters this year plugged for more PT for MP1, and Singler's on record as in MP1's ear toward improvement. Perhaps more than you - which I can only assume, given the ref to "no big" - I was actually pretty impressed with MP2's athleticism and smarts in the McD All-Am game. I think MP2, and MP1, both got some game. MP2 can surely get real minutes at both 4 and 5-spots. I realize you are not nearly so optimistic on these points.

Nor on the overall athleticism of the team. Well, I've also posted that I see real improvement from the very athletic Nolan and EWill as key to our season. I recall K/coaches reported as having told Scheyer his soph year that he was deferring too much, that he was recruited to play like a star. My opinion is that Nolan and EWill need to be told same thing. I believe it will harm the team if Nolan is as tentative as this year. He made some wonderful - very athletic - drives this year, but of course far too few.

The athleticism of JS and KS is underappreciated, too. Neither "looks" athletic, probably not bouncy enough and not enough hops, but we can all think of a few amazing[ly athletic] plays by JS; and KS is - surely - one of a very few leading candidates for ACC POY next season. Also preseason All-Am. Yes?

So, halucinating for your and others' benefit, I repeat that, even in so-called "worst-case" scenario - no G/Wall/Bledsoe, and therefore no traditional solution to PG issue - I expect us to be better next season. Preseason top 7.

If G leaves and Wall doesn't come to Duke, Duke will be a solidly good team but not a national title contender. With the system Duke plays that team would just be too flawed to stop long athletic teams in the NCAAs (of which there will always be some). And people talk about Duke being an undersized jump shooting team. Duke just does not shoot it that well. No where near well enough to compensate for their lack of athletiscm and frontcourt production.

[gumbomoop]

If G leaves and Wall doesn't come to Duke, Duke will be a solidly good team but not a national title contender. With the system Duke plays that team would just be too flawed to stop long athletic teams in the NCAAs (of which there will always be some). And people talk about Duke being an undersized jump shooting team. Duke just does not shoot it that well. No where near well enough to compensate for their lack of athletiscm and frontcourt production.

Still some substantive disagreement here.

(1) Lack of athleticism - if that means 4-5 dribble/drive penetrators, a la 'Nova or recent Memphis teams, I agree with you. But I see Nolan and EWill as very athletic; but, yes, they must become both better ballhandlers and more assertive players. So, if they only improve marginally next year, their very real athleticism won't count for much.

(2) "too flawed to stop long athletic teams" - I doubt there are lots of such teams in any particular year, but, true, all it takes is the one you lose to. I see substantial improvement both offensively and defensively by athletic Nolan and EWill as key next year.

(3) lack of frontcourt production - I harbor optimistic views re the MPs. I think we can expect both offensive and defensive improvement at the 5. Between Singler, Kelly, and the MPs, not to mention spot minutes from Z, I'd be truly surprised if we rely nearly as much on the 3 next year.

(4) "solidly good but not national contender" - My prediction is more than merely solidly good, though certainly not a "lock" for Final 4. It seems reasonable to me to expect improvement from Nolan, EWill, MP1, Z, LT, important contributions from both Kelly and MP2, and utterly sterling play from KS and JS.

(5) I don't have a convincing argument re PG problem. Both JS and Nolan have become combo guards. JS is solid in that capacity, Nolan must improve, become a fine, confident player.

[gumbomoop]

I'd like some feedback on some of my expectations for next season of our top players if we lose G. Statistically:
Singler 19 pts 9 reb
Scheyer 15 pts 3 apg
Smith 11 pts 3 apg
Williams 9 pts 5 reb


Obviously it is highly contingent on if we get a PG and if we get anything from MP2. I think for the most part they are reasonable progressions. You figure Scheyer won't start ACC play shooting 20% again from the field. Then, you look at Kyle who I think is on a mission to show he is the best player in the conference next year. I like Nolan to progress from 5 ppg as a fresh to 8 as a soph to 11 as a junior who will have added responsibilities and move back to a natural position on the wing. Elliot will develop his jump shot and I think he is the biggest wild card of all of them. If he gets a midrange game I could see his sophomore year going very similarly to that of Gerald averaging near 12 a contest.

Thoughts?

Your projections seem reasonable to me. I see real improvement from Nolan and EWill as crucial, whether G departs or not, but obviously much more if he does.

At some level, having a wing with EWill's talent, and a combo guard with Nolan's, each averaging only about 10 would be disappointing. But since I expect points from Kelly and both MPs, and since KS and JS will surely score 15-20 each per game, and since we're not going to be a fast-break team [absent Wall], those 2 aren't going to average 14-15.

Frankly, EWill getting to 10-11 a game depends more on improved free throw shooting than jump shot. He definitely does need to develop a midrange game, but he's an impressive slasher, and such fellows get to the line... where they must convert at 70%+.

Nolan must become, as I assume he has been and will be encouraged to become, fiercely assertive. He is an effective driver, reverse lay-up-er, tear-drop-er. Do it. No more Mr. Nice Guy for Nolan. If Nolan plays soft, doesn't work. Hard. Relentless. Like his father, and like Johnny Dawkins, actually.

[jv001]

Your projections seem reasonable to me. I see real improvement from Nolan and EWill as crucial, whether G departs or not, but obviously much more if he does.

At some level, having a wing with EWill's talent, and a combo guard with Nolan's, each averaging only about 10 would be disappointing. But since I expect points from Kelly and both MPs, and since KS and JS will surely score 15-20 each per game, and since we're not going to be a fast-break team [absent Wall], those 2 aren't going to average 14-15.

Frankly, EWill getting to 10-11 a game depends more on improved free throw shooting than jump shot. He definitely does need to develop a midrange game, but he's an impressive slasher, and such fellows get to the line... where they must convert at 70%+.

Nolan must become, as I assume he has been and will be encouraged to become, fiercely assertive. He is an effective driver, reverse lay-up-er, tear-drop-er. Do it. No more Mr. Nice Guy for Nolan. If Nolan plays soft, doesn't work. Hard. Relentless. Like his father, and like Johnny Dawkins, actually.

I agree that Kyle and Jon will score somewhere around 15-20 pts per game. Going on the premise that Wall does not come to Duke, I would say that improvement in several players must take place for Duke to be top ten nationally. First Elliot needs to get better in shooting the ball from the perimeter in order to be able to drive to the basket. He also needs much work on using his right hand. I think his freethrow shooting will get better. We need improvement and consistency from Nolan. Play without thinking so much. We need Zoubek to improve over the summer as much as he did this year. And we need some production from one or two of these guys; MP1, Mason, Kelly, Lance. Like you have stated, if we don't land Wall I don't see us being a top scoring team next year without some big improvements from some key players. However I think we will get that improvement and be a top ten team. Go Duke!

[DUKIECB]

I tend to be one of type to totally discredit preseason polls, especially this early. With that being said, the sporting news has unc at #7 and Duke at #9 next year. And that is assuming G stays! Their list looks like this:

1) Syracuse
2) Kansas
3) Michigan State
4) Kentucky
5) USC
6) Xavier
7) unc
8) Texas
9) Duke
10) Purdue