What do you guys have for Cinderellas/upsets in your bracket?
Maybe some categories are needed:
- Biggest 1st round upset?
- Lowest seeded team in the Sweet 16?
- Lowest seeded team in the Elite 8?
- Surprise Final Four team?
- Upset you don't have the guts to pick but really, really want to?
- Upset that's not really an upset?
- Anything else you can think of
I recommend choosing lots of upsets for your bracket this year. Don't get suckered into picking chalk just because four #1 seeds made it to the Final Four last season in an unusually strong year for college basketball. There's a lot more parity this year and I expect a wild tournament.
If you want some objective data for this opinion, check out Pomeroy:
http://kenpom.com/stats.php Compare the ratings for the top teams this season to the tops teams in seasons past. 2009 looks a lot like 2006. Even if you disagree with a specific team's rating (I think UNC is a better team than Memphis, for example), odds are, Pomeroy does a good job capturing the strength (or lack thereof) of the overall field.
Now, obviously, the odds of you picking the
right upsets are pretty low. That's the nature of the beast. But at least you'll stand a chance of getting lucky, picking correctly, and winning your office pool with an upset-minded approach. Meanwhile, the chalk-filled brackets are going to get blown up, imo -- you don't stand any less of a chance going for upsets as you would going for chalk. Like I said, I'm expecting a wild tournament.