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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Los Alamos, New Mexico
    I really, really wanted to pick Portland State over Xavier, but just couldn't do it and have FSU beating them instead.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lompoc, West Carolina
    I'm a homer. I don't care what anyone says about me for being one.

    I made my final four forecast in snrub Sunday night and I'll stick with it, favorites and upsets.


    They are:


    Duke/Oklahoma(I wish it weren't so)
    Louisville/Connecticut

    That's as far as I go for now.

  3. #43
    I want to see as man upsets as possible. The sooner the Big East teams and UNC leave the field the better.

    I have VCU as my big upset, BC and Purdue going to the Elite Eight, Clemson beating Oklahoma, and Syracuse in the Final Four.

    I'd LOVE to see North Dakota State pull off a big upset, and if Binghamton wasn't matched up with us I'd like to see how far they could go. THAT IS NOT THE CASE ANYMORE! GO DUKE!

  4. Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    This confuses me. We played Purdue, not Michigan State in the Challenge, and we beat them pretty handily. UNC destroyed Michigan State in the Challenge. Also, Michigan State is not #2 in the RPI, they're either #5 or #6.
    Oops -- I actually meant we (the ACC) barely beat them (the Big 10) and they (the Big 10) are #2 in RPI. Sorry about that.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Los Alamos, New Mexico
    Quote Originally Posted by captmojo View Post
    I'm a homer. I don't care what anyone says about me for being one.

    I made my final four forecast in snrub Sunday night and I'll stick with it, favorites and upsets.


    They are:


    Duke/Oklahoma(I wish it weren't so)
    Louisville/Connecticut

    That's as far as I go for now.
    I have the exact same final four. I haven't gotten one completely right for as long as I can remember, but I have picked two national champions right this decade, with Duke and Kansas.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lompoc, West Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by gwwilburn View Post
    I have the exact same final four. I haven't gotten one completely right for as long as I can remember, but I have picked two national champions right this decade, with Duke and Kansas.
    I usually only look one day at a time with the exception of examining Duke's region in depth, imagining scenarios. This time I tuned out the talking heads on the tube and went one region at a time, coming up with this. i hate having to go against Capel, but if it happens...it does.

    I don't see very many upsets. I do see many that may take Maryland too lightly.

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by captmojo View Post
    I do see many that may take Maryland too lightly.
    IMO, the larger question is whether Maryland will take Maryland too lightly.

  8. #48
    I agree that Pitt has to be one of the frontrunners. However, one must not forget that Pitt has never made it past the sweet 16. Of course, this is probably their best chance. I just thought that was interesting.

  9. #49
    There are a couple of picks that are giving me trouble.

    The first is (5) Illinois vs. (12) Western Kentucky. Yes, Chester Frazier is hurt. Yes, last year's WKU squad made a Sweet 16 run (which I had in my brackets). This year's WKU squad, however, is NOT last year's. They are awful defensively despite playing at a nearly 5 possessions/game slower pace. They get a third of their scoring from the perimeter. Illinois is superb defensively, on the perimeter in particular, and took care of Michigan without Frazier.

    The second, and you will all think I'm nuts here, is BYU-UConn. Play along with me for a moment and assume BYU wins its first round game. BYU, on paper, legitimately looks like they could beat UConn. They are efficient at both ends of the floor: high FG% from inside and outside the arc, low turnovers, supberb defensive rebounding. They've got four starters above 37% from 3 on significant attempts, and also have some real height (3 players at least 6-10, 3 starters at least 6-6).

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    North Florida & Bozeman, Montana

    Lightbulb WSJArticle: AccuScore ran 10,000 game simulations...

    with very interesting upset possibilities.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123724570347948481.html

    Check chart and %s for first round games. See Duke and UNC and Pitt.



    Best--Blueprof

  11. #51
    Hmmm, no one's mentioned Gonzaga over Cackalacky in the Sweet 16 yet. Recall Gonzo took a fully healthy UConn to overtime early in the year.

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Actually

    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    Hmmm, no one's mentioned Gonzaga over Cackalacky in the Sweet 16 yet. Recall Gonzo took a fully healthy UConn to overtime early in the year.
    I did, at the beginning of page 2 of this thread. I think it's a great upset pick (like Wisconsin over FSU, sad to say).

  13. #53
    Wisconsin is actually favored over FSU according to Pomeroy rating as well as the predictor component of Sagarin's rating. Same thing with USC over Boston College, in fact USC is actually fairly heavily favored (66% by Pomeroy).

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Wilmington
    DUKE/ ok

    vs the winner of

    Kansas / Memphis

    DUKE over Memphis ( tidbit, Calipari played basketball for UNCW 1980, I sort of wish he'd had take the NCSU job just to get into roy's head )


    unc-ch loses to Oklahoma in Memphis.
    My neice goes to Ok,, should be some interesting text that day

  15. #55

    Talk Me Down

    Ok, someone please talk me down on some of the upsets I really want to pick.

    The first one is N. Dakota St. over Kansas. My reason: four seniors, first time in tourney, and DID YOU SEE THAT CROWD ON SELECTION SUNDAY? Also, Kansas, in my opinion, has not looked impressive at times this year.

    The next one is Portland St. over Xavier. My reason: I haven't watched Xavier much this year, but I've felt that they were overrated ever since we beat them. Also, their conference tourney play was not impressive, and they've stumbled a bit at the end of the season. More importantly however, Boise is rather close to Portland, and I think this will feel like a home game to Portland St.

    That's it for the big ones. However, I do have Missouri going to the Final Four, beating Memphis in the Elite 8. This is simply based on the "eye test." I've watched Missouri a couple times this year, and I really liked the way they play. I don't think Tyreke Evans will handle the pressure well. Any thoughts?

    A few other points: I like Michigan over Clemson, because I think Beilen can get his guys focused and ready for one great performance at least. I like Siena over Ohio St., but because the game is in Dayton, I feel OSU gets the edge. And, like most everyone else, I think Western Kentucky will beat Illinois.

    My Final Four (unless convinced otherwise): Louisville, Missouri, Pitt, UNC.

    Championship: L-ville, UNC.

    Winner: L-ville

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    Cleveland state with the huge upset... count on it!

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    Exclamation Any serious interest in doing a DBR NCAA (free) pool for fun?

    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Don't know if this is worth creating a new thread yet, but is there going to be a DBR group in the ESPN Tournament Challenge like last year? I did really well picking Kansas/Memphis then, and can probably go nowhere but down.
    I've set up a couple pools on ESPN already, and it isn't difficult. Is there serious interest in doing one here?


    I have UNC and Duke meeting in the FF, and a Louisville/Memphis matchup on the other side. Alas I am a "emotional insurance" guy too -- so I have UNC vs MEM in the finals, with Kerlina winning it all in a close one (based on TH shooting about 30 freethrows...and all of the Louisville Bigs getting fouled out by the refd on marginal calls).


    Upsets? I like VCU to beat an underperforming UCLA squad. I think Mich is dangerous for Clemson (which is certainly NOT peaking). I think LSU could challenge UNC in round 2 (but not predicting the upset at this point). W. Kentucky to beat IL - I like thast one. Minor upset: Expect Syracuse to beat OK in the Sweet 16. USC seems ready to do some damage - first BC for sure, then maybe MSU??? I do think Wake could surpise, or even beat Louisville. First round could be tough on the ACC, then get much better in rounds 2 and 3. Big East is similar.

    In the pool I run in my office, UNC seems the most popular N.C. right now, with Louisville next most popular to win it all, then Pitt. And a surpring number of Memphis picks. I actually like Duke's odds better than UCON(victs) - and so does Sagarin...

    -BDBD

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    I am going to ride the Duke horse all the way -- best chance in a while. However, I am afraid of Pitt and Oklahoma. The others don't scare me. I may be brain-damaged, but they don't scare me as those two do.

  19. #59

    ACC Teams

    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    What do you guys have for Cinderellas/upsets in your bracket?

    Maybe some categories are needed:
    - Biggest 1st round upset?
    - Lowest seeded team in the Sweet 16?
    - Lowest seeded team in the Elite 8?
    - Surprise Final Four team?
    - Upset you don't have the guts to pick but really, really want to?
    - Upset that's not really an upset?
    - Anything else you can think of


    I recommend choosing lots of upsets for your bracket this year. Don't get suckered into picking chalk just because four #1 seeds made it to the Final Four last season in an unusually strong year for college basketball. There's a lot more parity this year and I expect a wild tournament.

    If you want some objective data for this opinion, check out Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/stats.php Compare the ratings for the top teams this season to the tops teams in seasons past. 2009 looks a lot like 2006. Even if you disagree with a specific team's rating (I think UNC is a better team than Memphis, for example), odds are, Pomeroy does a good job capturing the strength (or lack thereof) of the overall field.

    Now, obviously, the odds of you picking the right upsets are pretty low. That's the nature of the beast. But at least you'll stand a chance of getting lucky, picking correctly, and winning your office pool with an upset-minded approach. Meanwhile, the chalk-filled brackets are going to get blown up, imo -- you don't stand any less of a chance going for upsets as you would going for chalk. Like I said, I'm expecting a wild tournament.
    A lot of smoke has been blown by coaches in the major conferences pointing to how tough each said their conferences were. Any team can lose in a single elimination tournament with bad matchups, with tough calls and also with injuries. It should be more indicative of the quality of ball to look at how well teams from the conferences do. I have WF, BC, Maryland, FSU, Duke, UNC and Clemson advancing out of the first round. I have WF, FSU, UNC, Duke and Clemson into the sweet sixteen. Beyond that, I have Duke and UNC into the great eight.

    To compare, I have Louisville, WVa, UConn, Pitt and Syracuse into the great 8, leaving only one other spot, which I expect Missouri to hold.

    I think the Big 10 will wash out as usual as well as the Pac 10 (12).

    Would love to see the ACC do a little better and in my view, FSU has a shot if they play Pitt.

    I noticed ND struggling last night in the NIT against UAB. Maybe the Big East isn't as good as claimed. Time will tell.

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    My two big upset picks:

    1) VCU over UCLA - I think a lot of people have this, so it probably won't happen.

    2) Gonzaga over UNC. Something about this game strikes me as a huge potential upset. First of all, I think Mark Few can outcoach Huckleberry Hound 7 days a week. Second he'll have 5 days to prepare. Third, you just have to think the Gonzaga players have been hearing UNC hype all year and would just love to make some noise by upsetting the Greatest Team Ever.

    THE TOE doesn't come into this upset prediction at all. I think Huckleberry's milking it for all it's worth, waiting for another Tar Heel-manufactured Willis Reed moment. But IF Lawson is really unable to play, look out for Butler.

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