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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Gonzaga is a tough four

    and we should all be Gonzaga fans for the next two weeks!

  2. #22
    North Dakota State!

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Here's what I have in one of my money brackets:

    - Biggest 1st round upset? Utah St, WKU, Wisconsin
    - Lowest seeded team in the Sweet 16? BYU over UConn, USC over MichSt
    - Lowest seeded team in the Elite 8? BYU
    - Upset you don't have the guts to pick but really, really want to? Cornell over Mizzou, ETSU over Pitt
    - Upset that's not really an upset? USC over BC and then Mich St.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    and we should all be Gonzaga fans for the next two weeks!
    I agree, and I have the Zags beating UNC in half of my brackets. Because this tournament is going to be cra-zee, Gonzaga might actually end up being the best team UNC has to face on the way to the national championship (if the Zags aren't upset before the Sweet 16). My greatest fear is UNC going to the Final Four and finding like two 4 seeds and a 7 seed waiting for them or something like that.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Pitt is going to be tough. I like their toughness and experience.

    I attached my Duke centric bracket that I'm going to use to fill out my picks. I love me some March Madness.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogue View Post
    Ok,, many of us fill out a bracket sheet.
    How many this year will pick Duke as our National Champion ?

    Since about 1990, I've probably picked Duke,, at least 16 times to win the tourney. Also, I've never won a pool.
    There are at least three times you should have won your pool by implementing this method.

    I always pick Duke too, I feel like I'm being unfaithful if I don't.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City

    Final Four Prediction: All Four Number One Seeds ...

    ... Will lose.

    Last year was the first team all four number one seeds made it to the final four, and I don't think any of them will this year.

    I like Memphis, Duke, Gonzaga and West Virginia. And I like Duke to beat Memphis in the championship.

    I think Gonzaga is going to catch UNC napping, get Hansb(*%(*& in foul trouble and stun the heels in the Sweet 16. I think Wake's height and a rejuvenated Jeff Teague will take care of Louisville in the Sweet 16, but they will lose to Huggy-Bear in the Elite Eight. I see Duke beating FSU for a fourth time after the Seminoles use their height to wear down DeJuan Blair and Toney Douglas goes off against Pitt. And finally, I see Memphis beating BYU in the regional final. BYU will pull the biggest upset of the tourney beating UConn in the second round.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  8. Since this is the thread where we're going to discuss brackets...I'll repost my thoughts on each region (from the dedicated regional threads) here:


    EAST

    This is a decent draw for Duke. There are a few potential red flags but overall, this is a decent bracket because of potential upsets that can happen which would prove favorable to us.

    Texas is definitely a dangerous opponent. I personally fear teams with talent that underperformed in the regular season -- some of those teams have the tendency to finally play to their potential when every game is potentially their last. Texas would certainly qualify. However, there is a reasonable chance that they would get upset by Minnesota. Minnesota is a very good defensive team and Texas' problem is offense. If Tubby can beat Barnes, Minnesota would be a very favorable second round match-up for us.

    Villanova looms as a potential Sweet 16 opponent. Unfortunately, it seems like we got the strongest 3 seed (I'd much rather play against Kansas, Missouri or Syracuse). Villanova can hurt us with their quick guards, but they don't have anyone inside that will cause us to deviate from our normal game plan. But look who Villanova would have to go through to get to the Sweet 16: UCLA or VCU. It'll probably be UCLA, a senior laden team with good guards. Further, Howland's teams usually play great defense. I think there is a very good chance that UCLA can upset Villanova, and UCLA would be a reasonable team for us to face in the Sweet 16. Don't forget that UCLA is another team highly ranked in the preseason.

    Pittsburgh is our 1 seed. Again, this looks bad because we probably got the second worse 1 seed for us (UNC being the worse). But I think Pitt can potentially have a very, very tough path to the Elite 8. First, they will have to play Tennessee or Oklahoma St. I think the latter is overrated, but the former is underrated -- Tennessee is well coached and played the second toughest schedule in the country. The Vols have a chance of upsetting Pitt. I'm not sure Florida State can get to the Sweet 16 (they have an incredibly tough first round against a disciplined Wisconsin team and will likely have to beat Xavier), but IF Florida State can meet Pitt in the Sweet 16...I smell upset. Rematches are difficult on the team that won the first time, and Pitt just narrowly beat FSU this season. If FSU can get there, they have a decent chance of beating Pitt.

    And even if we do end up playing Pitt in the Elite 8, I still like our chances. It'll practically be a rematch of last year's game, where Pitt beat us in OT, but since then we've improved much more than they have.

    We're peaking at the right time this year and the bracket -- if not favorable -- is at least decent. I have a good feeling about April.


    SOUTH

    UNC has got to be the overall favorite in this tournament, and they HAVE to be the prohibitive favorite to come out of this region. True, they are worse off without Ginyard, but consider they still have a disruptive PG, an extremely productive center, lots of shooters and lots of big men. This is a team built for post-season success.

    Not only that, but this bracket is about as favorable as can reasonably expected for our beloved Tar Heels.

    Butler is a nice mid major team. LSU is the class of the SEC, but that's not saying much considering how pathetic the SEC is this year. UNC should crush them both.

    Gonzaga won the last 9 out of 10 matches, and handily too, but they were all against inferior conference opponents. Except Tennessee, every decent team they've faced -- Memphis, Utah, Arizona -- they've lost. And even against the Vols they won in OT. Gonzaga is probably the weakest 4 seed, and UNC got 'em.

    The other side of the bracket has a lot of good teams -- but that's exactly why it's favorable to UNC. Arizona State, Syracuse, Clemson and Oklahoma all have a decent chance of making it to the Elite Eight. If any of the teams besides Oklahoma get there, it'll have to be considered a big gain for UNC. Arizona State is a good but not great team. Syracuse got a 3 seed because they overachieved in the Big East tournament, not because they truly are one of the nation's 12 best teams. Clemson is dangerous but have faded down the stretch.

    The *only* game that should give UNC pause is a Griffin-powered Oklahoma. Even then, UNC's guards are more than capable of winning this game even if Hansbrough is neutralized. Further, Oklahoma hasn't looked the same since Griffin became injured and I'd argue pre-injury Oklahoma was overrated anyway due to a favorable schedule.

    This year, there are simply NO EXCUSES for our biggest rival. If they're not in the Final Four they have no one to blame but themselves. This bracket is just about as good as they could've possibly asked for.


    WEST

    By far the region with the most question marks. The West can either be wide open or a battle at every round.

    #1: Just how good is UConn without Dyson? We don't have a very good benchmark because their three losses since then were against Pittsburgh, who had a good chance of beating them even with Dyson, and Syracuse in an epic 6 OT match. I submit that we don't know just how good UConn is today compared to the UConn that had Dyson in the lineup.

    #2: Memphis is a huge mystery. They did not do well in nonconference play when they had to face good teams. They did extremely well in conference play where they had to face lousy teams. Which Memphis is the real Memphis?

    #3: Sure, Missouri did well in a weak Big 12, but this is also a team that lost to Nebraska and Illinois out of the Big 12. I'm also generally suspicious of teams that rely on the press in the NCAA tournament. No clue really just how good this Tigers team is.

    Beyond the top three seeds, this bracket is definitely tough. You have Maryland, a giant killer that Memphis may have to deal with in the second round. Purdue is the Big 10 tournament champ and Washington is the best the Pac-10 has to offer. Marquette may have lost one of its leaders but it's still good enough to lose to Villanova by only 1 point in the Big East tournament.

    IF the top three seeds are strong teams, then this region is tough.

    IF the top three seeds turn out to be weak teams, then this region is wide, wide open, because there are a lot of lower seeded teams that can cause the upset.

    For my bracket I'm assuming that Memphis is a contender while UConn is the pretender.


    MIDWEST

    I actually think this might be the toughest region.

    Louisville and Michigan State are strong 1 and 2 seeds. Michigan State is a balanced team that has played very well since getting their big man back. Moreover, they won the Big Ten handily and the Big Ten is a strong conference this year. We barely beat them in the Challenge and they are #2 in the RPI. Watch out for the Spartans -- they can really do some damage this year.

    In addition to a strong top line, this bracket is tough because there are so many lower seeded teams that can cause the upset:

    - WVa, definitely the most dangerous 6 seed in the tournament. This is an underrated, well coached team that defeated Pitt in the Big East tournament. If I was Kansas I'd be sweating a potential match against WVa. This is the one 6 seed I did NOT want to see in Duke's bracket.

    - Boston College are proven giant killers and Michigan State may have to face them in the second round! Yikes. I'm sure Louisville fans will be doing a lot of cheering that game.

    - Is there any more difficult 4 seed than Wake Forest? This is a team formerly ranked #1 in the nation! Louisville would have a very difficult time getting past them in the Sweet 16 should they meet. If Wake plays with maturity (i.e. not like a freshman team as they did in the ACC tourney), they have a reasonable chance of winning this entire region.

    - Finally, the easiest 5-12 upset pick for me is Utah-Arizona. Arizona is a team with two first round NBA draft talent. They should win and give Wake a brief scare before folding.

    This is a tough, tough region. I wouldn't want Duke to be Michigan State in this bracket. About the only weak thing in this region is Kansas as a 3 seed, and even then, the defending champs aren't exactly chopped liver.


    FINAL FOUR

    In my Final Four I have Louisville defeating Michigan State, Memphis defeating UConn, UNC defeating Oklahoma, and Duke defeating Pittsburgh. I know, I went all chalk in drawing up the Elite Eight. But there's a good reason. Just like last year the top four teams -- i.e., the four 1 seeds -- distinguished themselves from the rest of the field, so is the case this year with the top eight teams. UNC, UConn, Pitt, Louisville, Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma and Memphis all season long have been clearly a cut above everyone else (though I'd add Wake Forest to that mix). The national champ will arise from this group.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    What do you guys have for Cinderellas/upsets in your bracket?
    I hate to say this, because I root for 91.67% of the league, but three of the most probable upsets are (12) Wisconsin over (5) Florida State, (10) USC over (7) BC, and (10) Michigan over (7) Clemson.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by jyuwono View Post
    Michigan State is a balanced team that has played very well since getting their big man back. Moreover, they won the Big Ten handily and the Big Ten is a strong conference this year. We barely beat them in the Challenge and they are #2 in the RPI. Watch out for the Spartans -- they can really do some damage this year.
    This confuses me. We played Purdue, not Michigan State in the Challenge, and we beat them pretty handily. UNC destroyed Michigan State in the Challenge. Also, Michigan State is not #2 in the RPI, they're either #5 or #6.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, NC
    I always pick Duke to win when I fill out my brackets.

    I've won my pool three times. (1991, 1992 and 2001).

  12. #32
    I'm picking a UConn/unc final. If the armageddon scenario happens at least I'll make a buck out of it.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC

    bracket strategy

    If I'm in a money pool, I'll pick the opposite of what I want to happen in real life. That way no matter what happens, I'll still be happy. Of course, winning a few bucks is little consolation for UNC winning it all

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    better name

    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    If I'm in a money pool, I'll pick the opposite of what I want to happen in real life. That way no matter what happens, I'll still be happy. Of course, winning a few bucks is little consolation for UNC winning it all
    for what you are doing is an emotional hedging strategy. I do it, too. But I don't think I can pick UNC.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Memphis, TN

    My Final Four

    Midwest: Wake v. Kansas - Wake wins
    West: Ucon v. Mizzou - Mizzou wins
    East: Duke v. Pitt - Duke wins
    South: UNC v. 'Cuse - UNC wins

    Wake v. Mizzou - Wake wins
    Duke v. UNC - Duke wins

    NC Game: Duke v. Wake - Duke wins (78-75)

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Wilmington

    Unhappy

    Quote Originally Posted by HaveFunExpectToWin View Post
    There are at least three times you should have won your pool by implementing this method.

    I always pick Duke too, I feel like I'm being unfaithful if I don't.
    Actually, I have picked the national champion, but that doesn't guarantee a pool win.. brackets can get busted early if you don't pick well in all four regions.. I don't

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    for what you are doing is an emotional hedging strategy. I do it, too. But I don't think I can pick UNC.
    I do the emotional/financial hedging as well, but I will pick UNC to win because I am usually wrong.

  18. #38
    Biggest 1st round upset?
    Mississippi State over Washington. I have not been convinced all year that Washington is that good, and Mississippi State is just hot lately.

    - Lowest seeded team in the Sweet 16?

    Maybe Western Kentucky. Haven't settled on that one yet. If I chicken out on that pick, then Boston College.

    - Lowest seeded team in the Elite 8?

    West Virginia

    - Surprise Final Four team?

    Missouri

    - Upset you don't have the guts to pick but really, really want to?

    North Dakota State over Kansas. I love Ben Woodside and the Bison, and they are a terrific story this year, but they haven't played anyone of the Jayhawks' caliber and I'm afraid they will not pull this off. Look for Woodside to make some headlines by proving he can play with Collins, though.

    Also, LSU over UNC. It could happen. LSU is way underseeded (so is Butler, for that matter), and either team will really be a tough second-round game for the Heels. But I'd be lying if I said I didn't think Carolina could pull it out. Wouldn't it be great if they didn't though?

    - Upset that's not really an upset?

    I think most of my upsets really are upsets. It seems a lot of people are picking W. Kentucky over Illinois, and I am too. I like BC over MSU as well as West Virginia over Kansas in the Midwest (ACC and Big East > Big 10 & 12).

    - Anything else you can think of

    Games I still can't decide: Clemson/Michigan and Utah/Arizona. Clemson hasn't looked the same of late, and Duke fans know what Michigan can do when they're on. Depends which Michigan team shows up. As for Utah/Arizona, I think Utah was way overseeded, but I think Arizona never should have been in the field. This Arizona team is the worst team with two future lottery picks I can ever remember. I don't want to pick the upset that everyone seems to be picking because I'm bitter about their inclusion, but I think it might happen. Lots of people didn't think George Mason belonged in the tournament in '06, and look what they did. They were out to prove something.

    [/QUOTE]

  19. #39

    Some stats

    Prediction models:
    (1) Associated Press (AP) poll of sportswriters
    (2) Coaches poll by ESPN/USA Today
    (3) Seedings by the tournament selection committee
    (4) Ratings Percentage Index (RPI)
    (5) Sagarin ratings published in USA Today
    (6) Massey ratings
    (7) Las Vegas betting odds
    • Sheridan’s odds
    • Game-by-game Vegas point spreads from Statfox (Vegas)
    • Kaplan and Garstka’s method (KG) that derive team ratings

    Conclusion: Vegas picks are the best, but they are game-by-game, so you cannot use them to fill out your bracket. For the best bracket picks, use Sheridan’s odds against winning.

    Best to worst: Sheridan>Massey>AP>ESPN=Seed>KG>Sagarin=RPI

    Source: Kvam, P. & Sokol, J.S. (2006). A logistic regression/Markov chain for NCAA basketball. Naval Research Logistics, 53 (8), 788-803.

    Here are some stats I gathered a couple years ago (so slightly out of date):

    First round
    High seed Low seed High win pct
    1 16 100%
    2 15 95%
    3 14 83%
    4 13 80%
    5 12 67% At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the first round every year except one since 1988. Over the last six tournaments, #5 seeds are only 13-11 vs. #12 seeds.
    6 11 69%
    7 10 60%
    8 9 47%

    Second round
    Seed(s) Pct that make Sweet 16
    1 86%
    2 56% vs #10 seeds
    3 45%
    4 44%
    10/11/12 47% when win first round
    13/14 19% when win first round

    Sweet Sixteen
    #1 Seeds: Overall, 61 of 88 (69%) have made it to the Elite 8.

    Elite Eight
    #1 Seeds: 21-21 (50%) make the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seed. When playing any seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 15 of 19 games (79%).

    Cinderallas end here: Large underdogs (defined by being 4 or more seeds lowers) have won 5 of 28 games in this round (18%).


    Predicting the Final Four

    Looking at the #1 Seeds:
    Since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985, how many teams in the Final Four were seeded #1?
    All Four: one time (2008)
    Three: three times (1993: three #1s and a #2; 1997 & 1999: three #1s and a #4)
    Two: ten times
    One: eight times
    Zero: one time (2006)

    There have been 88 Final Four teams in the last 21 years. Their seeds:
    Seed / Number of teams / Pct of total that has been this seed / Percentage of total this seed or higher
    1 36 40 40
    2 19 22 63
    3 12 14 76
    4 9 10 86
    5 4 5 91
    6 3 3 94
    7 0 0 94
    8 3 3 98
    9 0 0 98
    10 0 0 98
    11 2 2 100

    Championship
    • 13 of the last 23 champions were #1 seeds (57%)
    • Since 1979 (when the NCAA started seeding teams), the #1 team in the polls going into the tournament has only won the National Championship four times (1982 North Carolina, 1992 Duke, 1995 UCLA and 2001 Duke).
    • Since 1979, only five times has a championship game featured two #1 seeds.
    • Undefeated and one-loss teams: No team entering the tournament in this status has won the championship since Indiana in 1976. There have been five such teams that lost.

    Factors proven to matter:
    (1) Overall Record
    (2) Experience
    (3) Road Results
    (4) Recent Play (last ten games)
    (5) Hidden Home Court Advantage
    (6) Easy Buckets (assist/turnover ratios and points in the paint)
    (7) Points per Game
    (8) Conference vs. Non-Conference Play
    (9) Individual Matchups
    (10) Consistency
    (11) Lower seeds – Automatic bids or at-large berth?

    Factors that have proven not to matter:
    (1) Bench depth
    (2) Conference Champions from major conferences
    (3) RPI

    Having said all that, I think I'll have Pitt, Lville, UNC, and Memphis in final four with Pitt taking it all. Upset specials in the first round include arizona over utah, southern cal over bc, miss st over washington, maryland over cal, vcu over ucla, western ky over IL, and michigan over clemson.

  20. #40

    Wake Forest

    I think Wake Forest may be primed to make the biggest splash in this tourney. If UCON makes it far enough (which I don't think they will, because the Big East will be exposed as usual) to play Wake, the only thing that UCON has for them is size, and they will not bother WF. Without Dyson, UCON is done. Wake has a very good chance of winning this region. If I were a betting man, that is where I would put my money for upsets.

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