There would be a lot more banners in CIS if things held to the way I picked my bracket.
Ok,, many of us fill out a bracket sheet.
How many this year will pick Duke as our National Champion ?
Since about 1990, I've probably picked Duke,, at least 16 times to win the tourney. Also, I've never won a pool.
There would be a lot more banners in CIS if things held to the way I picked my bracket.
Duke loses to Villanova. And if we get by them we will lose to Pitt. Pitt will be the national champion.
I simply cannot pick against Duke. The folks in my pools love that fact, but a fact it remains.
Duke wins. Every year.
-jk
Having watched many games in the BE and having watched WVU beat Villanova like a drum, I think that Duke can beat them and I would not pick against Duke in that game if I were you.
And having watched the BE and the ACC, I think Duke has as good of a chace as anyone. They win my bracket.
~rthomas
Western Kentucky over Illinois AND Gonzaga in the south.
The Hilltoppers are the new Gonzaga. But they can't hang with the heels...
This seems a popular choice. I don't get it. We score more per game (78 to 76) and allow fewer (65 to 67) and we have a much harder schedule (SOS of 3 vs SOS of 30)
I say we handle Nova, and give Pitt a game that could go either way.
EDIT: Hold that, I think that UCLA could bet 'Nova before they even get to us.
Last edited by Exiled_Devil; 03-16-2009 at 12:11 AM. Reason: UCLA note
I completely agree with regards to Nova. WVU is a dangerous team. They are in Pomeroy's top 10 (www.kenpom.com) and are good on offense and on defense. Quite frankly, I'd rather see Nova. To that end UCLA is also perfectly capable of knocking off Nova and, provided we advance, I would not be surprised to see the bruins lurking in the sweet sixteen in place of the Wildcats.
I usually participate in 2 pools, and I submit a different bracket for each. Probably about 85% of my picks are the same in each, but I've always picked one with my heart and one with my head. So I always have Duke winning it all in one, while in the other I have the team I truly think will win. Sometimes, that's Duke as well. This year, I think it'll have to be Pittsburgh. This has been my favorite Duke team since at least my freshman year, which was 2005 (when we were picked to finish 5th in the ACC preseason and ended up a 1 seed in the tournament, and had the unforgettable 71-70 win over UNC at home). However, I'm just not sure it's our year. If G stays, I believe next year is our year.
Don't know if this is worth creating a new thread yet, but is there going to be a DBR group in the ESPN Tournament Challenge like last year? I did really well picking Kansas/Memphis then, and can probably go nowhere but down.
I do not have stats to back this up but it is only from memory. Teams that are not suppose to win their conference championships but surprisingly do ,usually do not fare well in the tournament.
It this is true than Temple, Miss.St, and USC might be early round exists.
This does include Duke, Purdue or Missouri who were not surprise winners of their conference tournaments even though they were not number 1 seeds.
Teams that surprisingly win their conference tournaments should not be expected to do very well in the NCAAs. Simply by the fact that they weren't supposed to win, we can infer that there are better teams in their conference (based on the regular season). The regular season should be a better predictor of NCAA tournament success than conference tournaments, as there is a lot more information. So a weaker/bad team that gets hot/lucky and wins their tournament should, on average, return to their weaker/bad form and do poorly in the NCAA tournament.
To go a bit further, teams that surprisingly win their tournaments are much more likely to be higher (i.e. worse) seeds in the tournament. Thus, they're likely to be underdogs even in the first game. For example, the teams you listed (Temple, Miss St, and USC) are are all double-digit seeds. They will be expected to lose in the first round. And if they happen to pull an upset in the first round, they will be heavily expected to lose in the second round.
of 24 NCs won their conference tourney in the same year.
Four of the NCs came from conferences that did not have a conference tourney.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/sp...onference.html
Best regards--Blueprofessor
I pick Duke every year. This year will be no different. 1995 was a long time ago, but I believe I went on strike and did not complete a bracket. In 1996, we were an 8 seed and I still had us going all the way. Unfortunately, when your champion loses in the first round, you aren't going to do very well.
What do you guys have for Cinderellas/upsets in your bracket?
Maybe some categories are needed:
- Biggest 1st round upset?
- Lowest seeded team in the Sweet 16?
- Lowest seeded team in the Elite 8?
- Surprise Final Four team?
- Upset you don't have the guts to pick but really, really want to?
- Upset that's not really an upset?
- Anything else you can think of
I recommend choosing lots of upsets for your bracket this year. Don't get suckered into picking chalk just because four #1 seeds made it to the Final Four last season in an unusually strong year for college basketball. There's a lot more parity this year and I expect a wild tournament.
If you want some objective data for this opinion, check out Pomeroy: http://kenpom.com/stats.php Compare the ratings for the top teams this season to the tops teams in seasons past. 2009 looks a lot like 2006. Even if you disagree with a specific team's rating (I think UNC is a better team than Memphis, for example), odds are, Pomeroy does a good job capturing the strength (or lack thereof) of the overall field.
Now, obviously, the odds of you picking the right upsets are pretty low. That's the nature of the beast. But at least you'll stand a chance of getting lucky, picking correctly, and winning your office pool with an upset-minded approach. Meanwhile, the chalk-filled brackets are going to get blown up, imo -- you don't stand any less of a chance going for upsets as you would going for chalk. Like I said, I'm expecting a wild tournament.