Did he model the probability of Lawson's toe healing?
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...?articleid=586
UNC has a 42% of winning; Duke 30%.
Did he model the probability of Lawson's toe healing?
He has Wake with a 13.2% chance of winning, which seems a little low to me. If I could place a bet on Wake at 8-1 odds, I'd probably do it.