If he keeps playing like he did against Wake tonight he will.
My line is Mark Alarie. Alarie scored over 2000 points, was ACC 1st team twice (I think - soph and senior), and went to a national final. His jersey is not retired. He was a graduate, a great teammate, and a building block of K's program. So he is the measuring stick to me. Beat his career and I'll support hanging your jersey. As a junior, and as great as he can be, Gerald Henderson is not there yet.
Again, name a player aside from Elton Brand -- who did not graduate from Duke University, thus making him ineligible for the number retiring honor -- who has won the NOPTY award and not seen his jersey hoisted to the top of Cameron's rafters?
If Gerald would come back and win a NPOTY award next year, as well as go on to graduate, his number finds retirement.
Unofficially, the standard for getting your jersey retired has been 2 years at an All-American level. Gerald is very close to having one this year, but he needs to come back next year and play at the same level he's been at the last two months all year and make some noise in March/April.
It's not a sure thing, but he's definitely got a shot.
I don't know if he's a top 10 pick, but I think it's fair to say that he's unlikely to stay barring a sudden trend back downward, or an injury. I really am not saying this to dampen the enthusiasm on this thread -- it's great to have such high level play from one of our players that this sort of discussion can even be entertained -- but the reality of today's situation is that Gerald would be foolish not to go after this year, with such a weak draft, and with his stock rising so fast.
But I know that's for another thread (probably more than one in the coming weeks).
Gee, DDDeb, I did say IF twice in my post. It is too early to seriously consider G for jersey retirement, but as Coach K said in the post game interview with Bob Harris, tonight's game vs. Wake was a signature game for G, and he was fabulous. My favorite play of his was late in the game when we led 90-82 and the shot clock was winding down; G kept dribbling until the clock reached 2 and then he drilled a 3. He knew what he wanted to do and he knew he was going to make the shot. Ice water in his veins! He continues to play like this the rest of this year and next, and he wins the NPOY awards (at least some of them if not consensus), we likely would do very well in the post season and then this conversation is appropriate, and maybe a foregone conclusion. But first he has to finish this year and then come back for his senior season.
Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!
Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
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This is basically how I think about it. I have no doubt G has the ability to come back to Duke next year, contend for NPOY honors and win at least one of the major ones, and lead Duke deep into the tournament. If this happens there is an excellent chance #15 will be retired.
I still think it is unlikely at this point. G will have a lot of incentives to leave after this season; among other things this year's draft class is extremely weak. Even if he stays, he'd have to remain healthy, and elevate his game like he did last night over the course of an entire season. Neither is trivial, to say the least.