Past Duke Recruits

[BD80]

Watching Kyrie Irving on ESPN - which makes much of the recruiting rankings - there was a list of the top 10 2008 recruits, which had Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, and six guys now in the pros.

We have had unparalleled success in bringing in guys that are highly ranked, so this is an unfair question - but I am having trouble remembering guys whose performance exceeded their rankings. Chris Carawell surprised many with his improvement his senior year, but he was still a top 30 recruit. JJ out performed his ranking, but he was still fairly highly ranked. I think Wojo would be my choice for an over achiever, his selection for the McDonald's AA team was widely criticized. KDog would be another choice.

I concede that ranking an individual's performance in a team sport such as basketball is highly imprecise and subjective - the front page story on Shane is indicative of that. Duke players tend to score less than if they were the focal point of a lesser team, and tend to be more team oriented players. Duke players (like Big 10 players) also suffer statistically because good defensive teams like Duke extend the average time of possession and thus reduce the number of offensive possessions.

I also understand players recruited by Duke tend to rise in the rankings - making it difficult or unlikely to exceed the ranking.

Duke has done well in getting players drafted highly, but my question is restricted to performance at Duke. Which players most outperformed their ranking? Oh yeah, pre-season pick-up games don't count - so we needn't discuss Nick Horvath.

[COYS]

I also understand players recruited by Duke tend to rise in the rankings - making it difficult or unlikely to exceed the ranking.

I think this pretty much answers your question.

[Ignatius07]

I believe JJ was a top-15 recruit, so it'd be difficult to say he overachieved. And if Wojo was actually a McD AA, the same would be true for him.

[roywhite]

Mike Dunleavy was ranked around #25 as a recruit, had some All-America mention at Duke, and was the 3rd pick overall in the NBA Draft.

Going back some, Brian Davis and Thomas Hill probably exceeded expectations.

[MChambers]

Laettner and Brand both outperformed their rankings. So did Grant Hill, for that matter.

[doctorhook]

David Henderson comes to mind

[BobbyFan]

I'd add Capel and Avery.

Also, remember that when dealing with players that are so highly ranked, it is mathematically more likely that they fall short of expectations than exceed them. Let's say a guy was ranked #4 in his class; if you told his college coach that he would wind up being exactly that good, #4, he would take it 10 times out of 10. And it's difficult for such players to significantly overachieve (Brand, Hill, etc).

[slower]

KDog

Who is "KDog"? Is this supposed to be some commonly-known nickname for a Duke player?

[COYS]

I'd add Capel and Avery.

Also, remember that when dealing with players that are so highly ranked, it is mathematically more likely that they fall short of expectations than exceed them. Let's say a guy was ranked #4 in his class; if you told his college coach that he would wind up being exactly that good, #4, he would take it 10 times out of 10. And it's difficult for such players to significantly overachieve (Brand, Hill, etc).

I completely agree. I mean you could say that a guy like JJ didn't overachieve because he was a top 3 shooting guard coming in, but at the same time, did anyone expect him to become Duke and ACC's all time leading scorer? I think a better measure for how successfully Duke develops players is to look at the very large number of recruits that reach their potential.

[Ignatius07]

Laettner and Brand both outperformed their rankings. So did Grant Hill, for that matter.

I always got the impression that Brand and Hill were both top-5 or at least top-10 recruits? Perhaps the point is moot if rankings weren't released back then.

[happydays1949]

Who is "KDog"? Is this supposed to be some commonly-known nickname for a Duke player?

Thanks for asking that question. I assumed I was the only one who didn't know Kdog.

[CDu]

Laettner and Brand both outperformed their rankings. So did Grant Hill, for that matter.

I don't know that I'd describe anyone who was a high school All-American as someone who outperformed their rankings. If you were a top-15 recruit and remained a top college player, that's meeting (admittedly high) expectations.

Brand won a high school player of the year award and was a top-10 prospect. People knew he was going to be great. I don't remember if Laettner and Hill were, but I imagine that they might have been.

With regard to the original question, I'd have to believe that it's been a long time. The best examples are probably from the 1980s, back when Coach K didn't have his pick of high school All-Americans. It's hard to have people really outperform expectations when the expectations are already really really high.

[CBDUKE]

I don't know who KDog is either, but a wild guess might be Kenny Dennard.

[MChambers]

I always got the impression that Brand and Hill were both top-5 or at least top-10 recruits? Perhaps the point is moot if rankings weren't released back then.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Brand and Hill were top 5. I don't follow recruiting as much as some, but I remember seeing a Street & Smith that had Brian Reese (a unc recruit) ranked higher than Hill.

I definitely remember that Brand was not top 5 at the time he committed, although the little bits I saw of the high school all star games later made it clear that he was the best of the Duke recruits.

[gvtucker]

With regard to the original question, I'd have to believe that it's been a long time. The best examples are probably from the 1980s, back when Coach K didn't have his pick of high school All-Americans. It's hard to have people really outperform expectations when the expectations are already really really high.

It is really a highly unrealistic stretch to say that Coach K has EVER had his pick of high school All-Americans. He's always missed on recruits, he's just had more hits than most coaches.

In regards to the original question, Roshown McLoed and Dahntay Jones come to mind. Dunno if transfers count, but they weren't NBA players when they came to Duke, that's for sure. As noted before, T. Hill wasn't a highly rated recruit, nor was David Henderson. I don't recall Phil Henderson being a big time recruit, either.

[MChambers]

I don't know that I'd describe anyone who was a high school All-American as someone who outperformed their rankings. If you were a top-15 recruit and remained a top college player, that's meeting (admittedly high) expectations.

Brand won a high school player of the year award and was a top-10 prospect. People knew he was going to be great. I don't remember if Laettner and Hill were, but I imagine that they might have been.

With regard to the original question, I'd have to believe that it's been a long time. The best examples are probably from the 1980s, back when Coach K didn't have his pick of high school All-Americans. It's hard to have people really outperform expectations when the expectations are already really really high.

Brand was top 10, yes, but he wasn't the top recruit. Obviously, though, he became the best player in his class. So I'd say that's outperforming.

Laettner was considered to be very good, but I don't think anyone figured he'd end up being national player of the year.

So I think both were highly ranked, but outperformed even those rankings.

[Olympic Fan]

I could be wrong, but I don't think Brand and Hill were top 5. I don't follow recruiting as much as some, but I remember seeing a Street & Smith that had Brian Reese (a unc recruit) ranked higher than Hill.

I definitely remember that Brand was not top 5 at the time he committed, although the little bits I saw of the high school all star games later made it clear that he was the best of the Duke recruits.

You remember wrong.

Elton Brand, Shane Battier and Chris Burgess split the major national prep player of the year awards in 1997. Shane won the Naismith Award, Elton won the Wooden ...

All three were consensus top 5 recruits. Brand was not a sleeper or a late developer -- he was the clearcut star of one of the great AAU teams of all time, along with Ron Artest, Erik Barkley and the infamous Bootsie Thornton. He averaged 41 points a game at Peekskill HS. While he was there, then NY governor George Pataki made the famous statement that he was only the second most famous Peekskill product -- after Brand.

I agree that it's tough to be underrated when you are a McDonald's A-A ... but Redick was a borderline top 10 prospect and he did end up as the consensus national player of the year -- does that qualify? Laettner was rated about even with fellow Duke recruit Crawford Palmer. Certainly he was not close to top 10 coming out of high school and he ended up as a national player of the year and one of the 5-10 greatest players in college basketball history. Was he underrated?

Grant Hill was a concensus top 10 pick. He would have been consensus top 5, but after he unexpectedly picked Duke over UNC, a couple of Tar Heel leaning gurus dropped him in their rankings (hey, Bob Gibbons!)

I could argue that Chris Carrawell (a Parade A-A, but not a McDonald's A-A) overachieved, but you do have to go back to Brian Davis and Thomas Hill to find outstanding players who didn't win any A-A honors. Go back a little farther and you get David Henderson, who was totally overshadowed by top 5 prep prospect Curtis Hunter -- of course, Henderson turned into a MUCH better college player.

[BD80]

I don't know who KDog is either, but a wild guess might be Kenny Dennard.

To know him is to love him. Unless you were playing aganst him.

[chrisheery]

As you have pointed out, perhaps unintentionally, it is very difficult for a Duke recruit to outperform his ranking. This is probably multifactorial.

1. We tend to only recruit guys that are very highly ranked in national recruiting outlets.

2. After we sign a guy, his ranking seems to go up just by virtue of being a Duke recruit.

For instance, I have seen rankings that had Nolan Smith anywhere from the 7th best recruit (overall!) to being ranked somewhere in the high 20s overall. In almost all of those rankings, though, he was not highly regarded as a PG, which is what we recruited him to play, primarily. So, if you go by the (rather obsurd) 7th overall ranking, there is no way he can out perform that number. Even if you go by him being ranked 30th overall, he really can't outperform that either.

The best chance we have had in years to find a diamond in the rough is probably Olek, but we won't know the verdict on that for at least another year, probably 2. Every other guy we get is wanted desperately by at least 4 other schools.

Personally, I think its a pretty good probably to have. That being said, it would be nice to occasionally get a nice surprise. Particularly if it were to be a 6'10" power player who could catch and finish in the lane with authority and never lost out on rebounds anywhere in his area.

[MChambers]

You remember wrong.

Elton Brand, Shane Battier and Chris Burgess split the major national prep player of the year awards in 1997. Shane won the Naismith Award, Elton won the Wooden ...

All three were consensus top 5 recruits. Brand was not a sleeper or a late developer -- he was the clearcut star of one of the great AAU teams of all time, along with Ron Artest, Erik Barkley and the infamous Bootsie Thornton. He averaged 41 points a game at Peekskill HS. While he was there, then NY governor George Pataki made the famous statement that he was only the second most famous Peekskill product -- after Brand.

Guess what I'm remembering was that it seemed that Battier and Burgess were bigger names when they signed. But Brand wasn't chopped liver.