What Is The Realistic Expectations For This Year's and Next Year's Team

[dukelifer]

Of course, Kyle today is far from his ultimate potential but when he eventually reaches the level of experience of someone like a Luke Walton or a Matt Barnes, I can foresee Kyle being as good or better an NBA player.

I agree he will find a niche but I don't think he is a lottery pick this year or perhaps ever unless he become a NPOY. The discussion has been about Kyle leaving. Unless he is not enjoying being a student, I can't see a reason why he would leave after his sophomore year.

[_Gary]

Ridiculous as it may sound, BC is now a very big game for us. If we come out, shut down Rice, and dominate then we can say that this is still a good (and confident) team that struggled with some very good/great teams. We won't drop much in the polls, our NCAA buzz remains strong, etc. If we are in a close game or (heaven forbid) lose then I think we're looking at a tailspin.

Fair or not the assumption will be "another February collapse." We'll plummet in the polls, our seeding will look shaky, and I suspect the team will mentally go "not again." A lot of questions were answered on Wednesday (unfortunately) and a lot more may be answered on Sunday. I hope K has us ready to give a good one.

Unfortunately, I think you are spot on with that analysis. The upcoming game is huge, huge, huge! I'd almost call it a must win at this point.

I'm also with the group that thinks if we lost Kyle and Gerald next year we could potentially be very shaky for an invite to the Big Dance. Note, I said "potentially", not definitely.

[OldSchool]

I agree he will find a niche but I don't think he is a lottery pick this year or perhaps ever unless he become a NPOY. The discussion has been about Kyle leaving. Unless he is not enjoying being a student, I can't see a reason why he would leave after his sophomore year.

I too would be very surprised if Kyle left this year, even though it is reputed to be an especially weak draft. Putting the monetary aspect aside, life in the NBA is a business and a grind and a rookie like Kyle would be basically a nobody relative to the stars in the NBA. On the other hand, other than during exam week, life as an undergrad student and basketball star at Duke is highly enjoyable. I've heard Luol make statements suggesting he would have preferred to come back to Duke, but he had a unique family situation with his father in particular encouraging him to step up to the responsibilities and opportunities of a professional career.

G is a different story. It is not inconceivable he rises to lottery level this year. The question is what is his ultimate potential. If he can really improve his handles and court vision, then to my mind his ultimate potential is on the level of someone like (don't laugh) Dwyane Wade. But again, you can never really get those lost college years back once you leave early and the NBA will still be there if G sticks around another year. And it remains to be seen how G will finish out this year.

[TwoDukeTattoos]

Yes, due to Duke's past success, we are a spoiled fan base. Given that, I am simply going to enjoy watching these kids play. I have no expectations. Honestly, it's quite possible to lose any game we play. With no post presence, we are as vulnerable as anyone.

[DukeDevilDeb]

I too would be very surprised if Kyle left this year, even though it is reputed to be an especially weak draft. Putting the monetary aspect aside, life in the NBA is a business and a grind and a rookie like Kyle would be basically a nobody relative to the stars in the NBA. On the other hand, other than during exam week, life as an undergrad student and basketball star at Duke is highly enjoyable. I've heard Luol make statements suggesting he would have preferred to come back to Duke, but he had a unique family situation with his father in particular encouraging him to step up to the responsibilities and opportunities of a professional career.

G is a different story. It is not inconceivable he rises to lottery level this year. The question is what is his ultimate potential. If he can really improve his handles and court vision, then to my mind his ultimate potential is on the level of someone like (don't laugh) Dwyane Wade. But again, you can never really get those lost college years back once you leave early and the NBA will still be there if G sticks around another year. And it remains to be seen how G will finish out this year.

I have Kyle in class... he is a really bright kid who seems to value the academic and peer side of things as well as the athletic. But he also has to have the NBA as his ultimate goal. I think he'll stay another year at least unless there is a quantum leap in his skill level between now and the end of the NCAA tournament.

I watch G sometimes and think "Man, don't do that well.. we don't want you to leave!" Then I hit myself! But with a senior class of G, Lance, Zoubs, Jon and Marty, with Kyle and Nolan as juniors, and so on... we could be very good.

Either way, I'm really glad that both Gerald and Kyle chose to come to Duke.

Go Devils!

[devildownunder]

Oh, I almost forgot, that Arizona team had (wait for it) no inside presence. Their season long rebound margin was 2.4, including their six wins in the NCAA tourney (ours is 5.1), and they only had 2.9 blocks per game (we have 4.3). And despite having Mike Bibby, their team assist-to-turnover ratio was only 1.1 (ours is 1.05). They pretty much relied on 3 big time players (Bibby, Simon, and Dickerson, although they also had an underachieving Jason Terry scoring 10 ppg). They only outscored their opponents (again, including the NCAAs) by 10, while we outscore our opponents by almost 16.

The more I think about it, the current Duke squad is a much better team than that Arizona team was, at least before the NCAA tournament started.

I'll concede your point about their regular season performance, I actually didn't realise so many of their losses were in conference, but you couldn't be more wrong about their lack of an inside presence:

Forward - #21 Bennett Davison, Jr. (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg)
Center - #42 A.J. Bramlett, So. (8.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg)

Let's see, that's 18 and 13 between the two of them, on average, all year.

By the way, here are the starters and key reserves for that team. Interesting to note that Jason Terry came off the bench.

Bennett Davision and A.J. Bramlett were MAJOR contributors for that team in its run to the title. While neither was a big-time back-to-basket scorer, they were both agile, ran the floor well, played interior defense and could score off feeds from Jason Terry and Mike Bibby.

That was anything but a doughnut team.

[Devilsfan]

I don't think Kyle leaves. He'll be our one true DUKE player. Jon will be Mr. Intangible. I think our front line will not be more experienced or deeper just a new three or four headed monster of role players. Our front line players will not have two or three years experience just one years experience two or three times. How do you say "ground hogs day?". Ryan will probably spell Kyle, as for the guards the beat goes on. Good but no Duhon, Jwill, JJ, or the like as of now. We may be saying wait 'till next year in 2009-2010. That's just my opinion and I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

[gwwilburn]

I'm no expert, but I don't think we've seen the last of this years team. I don't think we make it to Detroit this March, but the Sweet Sixteen is a very realistic possibility. As for next year, a little more inside presence can't hurt, and Zoubek and Thomas will be seniors, so if Gerald and Kyle stay, Duke looks to be the favorite in a conference that is going to be decimated by early departures this year.

[pfrduke]

I'll concede your point about their regular season performance, I actually didn't realise so many of their losses were in conference, but you couldn't be more wrong about their lack of an inside presence:

Forward - #21 Bennett Davison, Jr. (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg)
Center - #42 A.J. Bramlett, So. (8.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg)

Let's see, that's 18 and 13 between the two of them, on average, all year.

By the way, here are the starters and key reserves for that team. Interesting to note that Jason Terry came off the bench.

Bennett Davision and A.J. Bramlett were MAJOR contributors for that team in its run to the title. While neither was a big-time back-to-basket scorer, they were both agile, ran the floor well, played interior defense and could score off feeds from Jason Terry and Mike Bibby.

That was anything but a doughnut team.

I think the point is that their forwards and our forwards are similar. I mean, Singler and Zoubek (our starting 4 and 5 for most of the season) collectively average 21.4 and 12.6.

I honestly can't remember watching the 1997 Wildcats play. I have no idea whether Bramlett and Davison successfully guarded big, talented post players or not, but the point is that they had no more of a typical inside presence than we do.

[Rich]

If he can really improve his handles and court vision, then to my mind his ultimate potential is on the level of someone like (don't laugh) Dwyane Wade. But again, you can never really get those lost college years back once you leave early and the NBA will still be there if G sticks around another year. And it remains to be seen how G will finish out this year.

G needs to develop going to his left. Not having that skill will be exploited at the next level.

[devildownunder]

I think the point is that their forwards and our forwards are similar. I mean, Singler and Zoubek (our starting 4 and 5 for most of the season) collectively average 21.4 and 12.6.

I honestly can't remember watching the 1997 Wildcats play. I have no idea whether Bramlett and Davison successfully guarded big, talented post players or not, but the point is that they had no more of a typical inside presence than we do.

I know what the point was, and I'm saying I strongly disagree with it. Singler is a completely different kind of player than Bramlett or Davision. Those guys' jobs were to rebound, defend, get garbage points and finish when Bibby and company set them up with penetration, and by tournament time, they were doing all 3 very well.

Singler, on the other hand, helps on the interior because we need him to but is much more of an outside player than either bramlett or davision. So much so that to add his totals to Zoubek's for the year and call that our "inside presence" -- traditional or otherwise -- is inaccurate. Zoubek scores a ton of points out on the perimeter or in making moves on the perimeter for drives, Arizona's starting forward and center that year did nothing of the kind.

[Constantstrain 81]

Maybe a little bit of sky falling here. Midway through the second half of the UNC game - it was anyone's game. Our problem seemed to be execution, some poor coaching reaction to Ty Lawson, and just some bad luck.

We stopped moving the ball inside out. We had shots rattle out. We had had some balls bounce off the wrong hands. Hansguy hits a lucky 3 at the end of a shot clock. etc. etc.

Ty Lawson drove to the hoop and shot layups the whole half. The first guy was not the problem. It was the lack of height and intimidation at the end of the play. Where was Zoubek? Where was Plumlee? I am not a legendary coaching genius, but I can make that call. They could not have done worse than what we were doing.

Cut the guys a break. We have had a great season and that will continue. It will be all right. We may have a UNC hangover against BC, but quality will out and we are quality.

[devildownunder]

Ugh, reading over my last post demonstrates why I should never write anything after wandering into the computer room on the way back to bed at 7am.

Sorry but Z doesn't play much on the perimeter, Singler does, however. And it'd Davison, not Davision. Nice.

[Kedsy]

I know what the point was, and I'm saying I strongly disagree with it. Singler is a completely different kind of player than Bramlett or Davision. Those guys' jobs were to rebound, defend, get garbage points and finish when Bibby and company set them up with penetration, and by tournament time, they were doing all 3 very well.

Singler, on the other hand, helps on the interior because we need him to but is much more of an outside player than either bramlett or davision. So much so that to add his totals to Zoubek's for the year and call that our "inside presence" -- traditional or otherwise -- is inaccurate. Zoubek scores a ton of points out on the perimeter or in making moves on the perimeter for drives, Arizona's starting forward and center that year did nothing of the kind.

Forget Singler and try this:

1996-97, Bramlett and Davison, combined average stats:

52.2 mins per game
17.8 pts per game
13.3 rebs per game
1.7 blks per game

2008-09, Zoubek, Thomas, McClure, Plumlee combined average stats:
(note: I had to use four players to get roughly the same number of minutes)

53.4 mins per game
14.8 pts per game
12.9 rebs per game
2.3 blks per game

Say what you want, but I think the two teams have/had a similar inside presence. They certainly had pretty much the same stats.

To add to this, I happened to attend the 1997 Final Four and my recollection is none of Arizona's big guys did much of anything. (I checked the stats for those two games and it turns out Bramlett and Davison combined for an average of 50.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 12.5 rpg, and 3.5 bpg.) Now, I realize it's a very small number of games, but compare that to our performance against UNC, where our big guys had 50 minutes, 9 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks. Again, the same. Almost exactly.

I suppose it's possible Arizona's two guys played great defense. I don't remember them standing out in that way, but it was 12 years ago. However, I would argue that between McClure, Thomas, Zoubek, and Plumlee (who combined play around the same number of minutes as Arizona's duo) we get some pretty good defense ourselves.

So, once again I conclude that we're getting pretty much the same from our 50 big man minutes as 1997 Arizona got from theirs. Obviously you can disagree if you wish, but unless you're basing your opinion on something other than the stats and watching a handful of games on TV, I'm not sure why you would.

[ice-9]

Some good points Kedsy. No doubt this Duke team is capable of making a serious run in the tourney. But like the '97 Wildcats, it'll require us a to have streak of good shooting games to do so. We're not the kind of team that can have bad nights against good competition (or against certain types of match-ups) and still win.

[pamtar]

They is good.