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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    NCAA qualifying trouble? That's just silly.
    Silly? I'm not saying they wouldn't qualify under those circumstances, just that they will be on the bubble. I'll break it down for you. Duke is 20-4 right now with 7 games left and with the way they are playing/looking i say they will finish out with 4 wins and 3 loses (24-7). Add in 1-2 ACC tourney wins and they are at 26-8. Obviously they are in the NCAAs.

    Without Singler and Henderson, Dukes lineup for next year will look something like this:

    Smith 6-2 JR
    Williams 6-4 SO
    Scheyer 6-5 SR
    Thomas 6-8 SR
    Zoubek 7-0 SR

    Plumlee 6-10 FR
    Kelly 6-9 FR

    That is a decent lineup but the issues of this year will be magnified greatly. Its not hard to imagine Duke losing 4-5 more games next year than they did this year. 1-2 out of conference games, at least 2 more loses in the ACC and a quick out in the ACC tourney and you are at 18-19 wins. And that is the bubble.

  2. #42
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by whereinthehellami View Post
    Silly? I'm not saying they wouldn't qualify under those circumstances, just that they will be on the bubble. I'll break it down for you. Duke is 20-4 right now with 7 games left and with the way they are playing/looking i say they will finish out with 4 wins and 3 loses (24-7). Add in 1-2 ACC tourney wins and they are at 26-8. Obviously they are in the NCAAs.

    Without Singler and Henderson, Dukes lineup for next year will look something like this:

    Smith 6-2 JR
    Williams 6-4 SO
    Scheyer 6-5 SR
    Thomas 6-8 SR
    Zoubek 7-0 SR

    Plumlee 6-10 FR
    Kelly 6-9 FR

    That is a decent lineup but the issues of this year will be magnified greatly. Its not hard to imagine Duke losing 4-5 more games next year than they did this year. 1-2 out of conference games, at least 2 more loses in the ACC and a quick out in the ACC tourney and you are at 18-19 wins. And that is the bubble.
    You ignored Plumlee the elder and (possibly, but maybe unlikely) Pocius. But I agree with your overall point. I think that we'd probably still find a way in with that roster, but it's a very real possibility that such a team would be on the bubble.

    Granted, it's very reasonable to think that Singler and Henderson could be back next year, making such a concern a non-issue.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by whereinthehellami View Post
    Silly? I'm not saying they wouldn't qualify under those circumstances, just that they will be on the bubble. I'll break it down for you. Duke is 20-4 right now with 7 games left and with the way they are playing/looking i say they will finish out with 4 wins and 3 loses (24-7). Add in 1-2 ACC tourney wins and they are at 26-8. Obviously they are in the NCAAs.

    Without Singler and Henderson, Dukes lineup for next year will look something like this:

    Smith 6-2 JR
    Williams 6-4 SO
    Scheyer 6-5 SR
    Thomas 6-8 SR
    Zoubek 7-0 SR

    Plumlee 6-10 FR
    Kelly 6-9 FR

    That is a decent lineup but the issues of this year will be magnified greatly. Its not hard to imagine Duke losing 4-5 more games next year than they did this year. 1-2 out of conference games, at least 2 more loses in the ACC and a quick out in the ACC tourney and you are at 18-19 wins. And that is the bubble.
    What about the other Plumlee?

    I honestly don't remember, was the 2007 Duke team on the bubble? If so, I'll take it all back, but I don't recall anything like that. IMO, the team you describe is better than that team.

  4. #44
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    Feb 2008
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    Charlotte, North Carolina
    For this year Duke should still aspire to be a final 4 team. I'm not turning a blind eye to the last 5 games. But, putting it in perspective I saw 3 bad halves in 5 games (the whole Clemson game and the first half against Miami), but an overall very good performance against a Wake team that was, at the time, playing like a final four team, a dominating performance against Virginia, a GREAT second half against Miami, and 30 minutes of really good basketball against the Greatest Team Ever. The results - 2 good wins, a really bad loss, and 2 losses against top 5 teams. Duke needs to get better if we're going to get to the final four, but there's no reason to give up hope on that.

    As for next year, I'm not going to begin to speculate until we know if we'll have Singler and Henderson back. With them, we have national championship aspirations. Without, we probably don't.

  5. #45
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    What about the other Plumlee?

    I honestly don't remember, was the 2007 Duke team on the bubble? If so, I'll take it all back, but I don't recall anything like that. IMO, the team you describe is better than that team.
    The 2007 team had a young Henderson, an underrated McRoberts, and a veteran Nelson. And that team was a #6 seed. Next year's team could be better than that team, but they could be much worse.

    The reason it's not silly to say we could be a bubble team is that you're relying on a lot of unknowns to step up (will any of the bigs be ready to produce? will Williams be ready?). Comparing to 2007 is kind of pointless, because we don't have any idea whether next year's team will be better than the 2007 team.

  6. #46
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    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.
    I think that this team has struggled with coming to terms with how it wants to attack on offense for much of the season. I also think that that ambivalence has been resolved. Let me be more specific.

    I think it was intended that this year the offense would look to initiate offensive play a reasonable amount of time through feeding the ball inside, with the first option being a big man making a scoring attempt. That doesn't mean that the first pass made had to be an entry pass--just that the entry pass would, a fair amount of time, be what the team was after, and that the gambit/strategy was to play off the need of the defense to help stop the inside score.

    For obvious reasons, I think that the team and the coaching staff just danced with this concept, and that it never really took hold.

    I think that a decision has been made to jettison that inside-out type play (my term) as an integral part of the offense, and that a more all out commitment has been made to other options. That is what we saw in the last two ball games.

    I think that cutting the string has its pluses and minuses. The plus, Duke can be a very, very potent offense without the ambivalence. The minus, there are a number of advantages to be gained if you can play for close-in baskets by a big that Duke gives away. I think that K was reluctant to jettison that aspect of this year's offensive attack for just such reasons, but that he decided that he needed greater predictability, and the aggressiveness on offense that such predictability can inspire, so he decided to cut it loose.

    Bottom line, I think K said it all after the Carolina game. His team is real good, and played very well against Carolina, and that that was just not good enough to beat Carolina. Thankfully, few teams have lineups that can compare to Carolina's, and few teams will get the kind of performance Carolina got from a number of its players the other night. What that adds up to, I don't think that you want to play Duke in the tournament, especially in the early rounds. This team will get after people on both ends; they will not go gently into the night.

  7. Ridiculous as it may sound, BC is now a very big game for us. If we come out, shut down Rice, and dominate then we can say that this is still a good (and confident) team that struggled with some very good/great teams. We won't drop much in the polls, our NCAA buzz remains strong, etc. If we are in a close game or (heaven forbid) lose then I think we're looking at a tailspin.

    Fair or not the assumption will be "another February collapse." We'll plummet in the polls, our seeding will look shaky, and I suspect the team will mentally go "not again." A lot of questions were answered on Wednesday (unfortunately) and a lot more may be answered on Sunday. I hope K has us ready to give a good one.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Without Singler and Henderson we suddenly look like a very good mid-major team, IMO.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Aug 2008

    Next Year

    I am not sure how much trouble we will be in next year once conference play starts.

    Even without Kyle and Gerald.

    Would their defections decimate the team? Hels yeah.

    Welcome to next year's ACC.

    Who will be the power in the conference next year?

    UNC graduates two of their top 3 players, and 3 of their top 7. Two others might go pro. Of their current starters, only Thompson figures to return, and if he has a stretch run of games playing like he did against us, he might go pro also. UNC getting Ginyard back will help, and they have a solid recruiting class. It is a team capable of competing for the ACC reg season title. But it won't be a walk. They will be without the top flight PG that Roy likes to have. The will lose several games.

    WFU: Some here in Winston are delusional about it, but that team will suffer major attrition this year. Easily 2, and probably 3, of their Big 3 will go to the NBA. They will have good remaining players and solid recruits, so they will be OK. If either Johnson or Aminu returns, with the rest of the team and the incoming recruits WFU might be a co-favorite to win the league, but they will still drop a couple of games.

    GT looks great, if, and only in, Lawal returns. Oh, with their returning players and recruits, they will be a good team in the NCAAs even without Lawal. But with Lawal and Cousins down low, GT looks like a co favorite in the ACC.

    BC: Loses Rice
    Miami: Loses McClinton
    FSU: Loses Echefu and Toney Douglas.
    UMD: Unless Lance Stephenson comes, they will be OK, not great.
    Clemson: Good looking team. Maybe conf Favorite.
    The Rest: Eh.

    While Duke would take a step back without Hendo and Kyle, virtually every other team does also. Now, if Wake shocks the world and brings Teague AND Johnson back (Aminu is a lottery lock and gone) they'll be fantastic, and Clemson might be also.

    But I see a lot of the other teams in the league with real problems. Absolutely worst cast scenario, Duke projects as the Fifth best team in the Conf. Depending on what happens at GT and WFU, Duke could move to as high as third pre season. Second if UNC were to suffer some truly unexpected defections.

    We won't be the conf favorite, but we would be solid in a very competitive ACC next year.

    Much as I dread the derision for the following comment, please consider it before ripping me.

    If Gerald goes, I hope Kyle goes with him. I think of it like taking a band aid off. I would rather rip it off all at once than slowly.

    If Hendo leaves and Kyle returns, Kyle will be the man a la JJ his Sr year. The rest of the team will subsume themselves to his game. It will work pretty good, and Duke would contend for the ACC titles. But he would then leave and we would have to start over.

    Without Kyle, more of our younger players will play. Kyle plays a very similiar game to both our incoming Frosh. If he stays, he will play 35 or so MPG, and they won't play much, period. One will, but the other will only get spot MPG.

    Next year would be a learning experience. We would have experienced Guards and Fs ready to welcome a talented Frosh class. Barnes or Dawkins would be the athletic WF, with solid Frosh off the bench, that would make for a NC caliber team.

    Now, if one of the frosh is better than advertised and capable of doing real damage, or if we miraculously get Wall, then I hope Kyle comes back. Next year is a national title team.

    But, if we don't get Wall, and the Frosh need some time to adjust to college, then Kyle would become the crutch for the team. They would lean entirely upon him to their own detriment.

    I hope G and K come back, but given the deficincies of the team, we may have to take a long term view to get back to the top.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    You ignored Plumlee the elder and (possibly, but maybe unlikely) Pocius. But I agree with your overall point. I think that we'd probably still find a way in with that roster, but it's a very real possibility that such a team would be on the bubble.

    Granted, it's very reasonable to think that Singler and Henderson could be back next year, making such a concern a non-issue.
    I didn't forget them but I don't see them being part of the regular rotation. I'm not sure Pocius will be back next year.

    I just don't see Singler and Henderson coming back for next year. I'm not sure who goes but I don't see them both coming back.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The 2007 team had a young Henderson, an underrated McRoberts, and a veteran Nelson. And that team was a #6 seed. Next year's team could be better than that team, but they could be much worse.
    McRroberts, a young Henderson, and Nelson would be stars on this possible team we are talking about for next year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    Without Singler and Henderson we suddenly look like a very good mid-major team, IMO.
    I think that is spot on. If the above lineup does happen for next year, it is what it is. A down year. It happens. Help is on the way with the following class but that lineup would struggle against alot of teams.

  11. #51
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    Mar 2007
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    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Diddy View Post
    If Hendo leaves and Kyle returns, Kyle will be the man a la JJ his Sr year. The rest of the team will subsume themselves to his game. It will work pretty good, and Duke would contend for the ACC titles. But he would then leave and we would have to start over.

    Without Kyle, more of our younger players will play. Kyle plays a very similiar game to both our incoming Frosh. If he stays, he will play 35 or so MPG, and they won't play much, period. One will, but the other will only get spot MPG.

    Next year would be a learning experience. We would have experienced Guards and Fs ready to welcome a talented Frosh class. Barnes or Dawkins would be the athletic WF, with solid Frosh off the bench, that would make for a NC caliber team.

    Now, if one of the frosh is better than advertised and capable of doing real damage, or if we miraculously get Wall, then I hope Kyle comes back. Next year is a national title team.

    But, if we don't get Wall, and the Frosh need some time to adjust to college, then Kyle would become the crutch for the team. They would lean entirely upon him to their own detriment.

    I hope G and K come back, but given the deficincies of the team, we may have to take a long term view to get back to the top.
    I say enjoy Kyle's game for as long as you can. He is special. Henderson gets all the flashy headlines and highlights but take a look at the stats. Kyle dominates them. Without Kyle for next year we become a soft team that will have minimal frontcourt presence. The freshman are going to struggle with strength and the speed of the ACC. They are going to get eaten alive on the boards and on defense. Thomas and Zoubek will no douhbt step up somewhat but they are and will be role players.

    This is Duke's big chance to make a deep run into March unless Henderson and Singler both come back next year. If they both leave or only one comes back then it could be awhile (2010-2011) before Duke is able to make another long run into March.

  12. #52

    Talking Speculation about Duke's NCAAT seed

    So what kind of seed do you think we will be looking at in the tourney? Obviously the loss to Carolina didn't help us out with the #1, so I'm thinking the best we can do is #2. I have a feeling we might even slip to #3. Lunardi has us at about a 3. I like how http://ncaa-bracket.com updates theirs on a daily basis. What do you guys think?

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham

    My Prognosis

    As far as this year is concerned, I would think we can make it to the Sweet 16 but I can't objectively sit here and say I think we're an Elite 8 or Final 4 caliber team. As of 2/13/09, that's just not the case. The one caveat I will throw in is that we have a lot of really good shooters but have yet to shoot well as a team. Last year, we peaked too soon; this year, I believe we have yet to peak. We still haven't shot anywhere near as well as we did last year and you have to think things will click at some point. That is something I will keep a very close eye on as we near March because we all know that when this team makes shots, they can play with anyone (see last 15 minutes of 1st half Wednesday night)

    As far as next year goes, I still personally feel quite confident that both Henderson and Singler return; Singler moreso than Henderson but confident in both nonetheless. I know I may be in the minority on that but it is what it is. Furthermore, for the first time in as many as 3-4 seasons, Duke will finally have frontline depth (whether Krzyzewski decides to use it or not remains to be seen). We'll have a 7-foot Zoubek, the two 6-10/6-11 MPs and a 6-10 Ryan Kelly. Whether two of them are freshman or not, that will automatically make Duke a better team, IMO. For these reasons, I believe Duke will be arguably the best team in the country. Clearly, we need to see them on the floor before we can say anything definitively. But on paper, there's no reason Duke can't make a Final Four in '09-10.

    Just one man's opinion..

  14. #54
    Lunardi has Duke as a 2 seed now. Duke's RPI and SOS is real high and I think if Duke can finish strong they will be a 2 seed. I like the region they currently have us in. Teams we would have to beat en route to a FF would be Kentucky, Nova, and Oklahoma. Obviously lots can change so I'm going to remain focused on BC Sunday. Hopefully we can pick up a W in Chestnut Hill.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St Augustine, FL
    To early to tell, but we probably need some help to get back into consideration for a #1 seed.

    UConn, Oklahoma, UNC and Pittsburg all look pretty strong.

    UConn and Pitt still face each other twice, 2/16 and 3/7. So one of them might pick up a couple of losses there.

    Even if we win out, including a win at UNC, we might not get to a 1 seed unless one of those 4 gets another loss or two.

    Louisville just got spanked by the Irish, so they might slip a bit.

    But who knows. There are still a lot of games left to play, just about another month.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by whereinthehellami View Post
    I say enjoy Kyle's game for as long as you can. He is special. Henderson gets all the flashy headlines and highlights but take a look at the stats. Kyle dominates them. Without Kyle for next year we become a soft team that will have minimal frontcourt presence. The freshman are going to struggle with strength and the speed of the ACC. They are going to get eaten alive on the boards and on defense. Thomas and Zoubek will no douhbt step up somewhat but they are and will be role players.

    This is Duke's big chance to make a deep run into March unless Henderson and Singler both come back next year. If they both leave or only one comes back then it could be awhile (2010-2011) before Duke is able to make another long run into March.
    I'm not going to debate who's more important between Singler or Henderson because both are phenomenal players. All I'll say is that while Kyle has the stats to back up his play, Duke's problem is their inability to get to the basket when the shots don't fall...and the shots haven't really fallen. Henderson is the only player on that roster that's capable of getting to the rim at will; take him away and Duke becomes so easily guardable it's scary. Like "barely a Top 25 team" scary.

    Singler does so many things for this team that the average fan will never pick up. But there have been times (especially recently) where it's been Gerald and four other players out there.

  17. #57

    Kyle and the NBA

    Kyle is a talented college player -no doubt- but does his game really translate to the NBA? I have a hard time coming up with a comparable player in the current NBA. What player's game in the NBA is comparable?

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA

    Don't think about wins or losses

    It is interesting to hear everyone's opinions about expectations, but I hear a lot of linear thinking that I have heard for several years that we need to rethink as fans.

    First, as we compare this team to team's in the past (and I mean back to the 1980's) all Duke teams except perhaps the 1999 Duke team have had issues to deal with. The role of the coaching staff is to try to focus on the team's strengths and hide the deficiencies by game planning.

    Second, since we are fans of Duke we see all of the flaws in our team and not those of other teams. You can not tell me that LSU, VCU or West Virginia were perfect teams. They had flaws but we did not exploit those flaws and those other teams did exploit our flaws because over the past few years Duke has become predictable.

    That brings me to the non-linear line of thinking. I believe the Clemson game was a wake up call for Coach K. Up until then he was letting the team try to find its own energy during a game. (The exception was the Maryland game. Even when the score was 60-20 he was up giving instructions and trying to give energy to the team.) He also has tried to work with a "traditional" line-up; PG, SG, SF, PF and C. I know we tend to think that Coach K does not put people in positions but up until the Clemson game he was trying very hard to put a traditional team on the floor. Nolan as PG, Jon as SG, G as SF, Kyle as PF and Zoubs or Thomas as center.

    During or slightly after the Clemson game I think he realized he needed to make a change and do something to restore confidence in his team. Unfortunately that meant that a week before the toughest game of the year he could not fully concentrate on developing game plans to beat Miami or UNC but instead had to keep internally focussed. That being said the two games were successful. I believe the team has some confidence again.

    Furthermore, I believe Coach K now realizes with 7 games left in the regular season that he has to try things to exploit Duke's strengths and force other teams to worry about the mismatches that Duke can create. Will Zoubs, Williams, Plumlee and Pocius have a role in this? I think so. Coach K will play the players that best give other teams match-up problems, which may mean going big when needed (which possibly means that Zoubs and Plumlee will get more time) or going small (which means Williams and Pocius will get more time).

    (As an aside UNC has good to great players at all positions so in fact they have very few weaknesses to exploit and it will take some exceptional game planning to beat them.)

    Duke can go 4-3 or 7-0 over the next few weeks. It does not matter to me which they do (although I would prefer 7-0). What I will be looking for is for Duke to be unpredictable in how they attack each team.

    So try a lineup with Greg, Nolan, Jon, Gerald and Elliot for a few minutes. Put both Zoubs and Plumlee down low for awhile. Use the 1-3-1 trap that showed up against Miami for a few possessions. Keep in mind unlike years past, we have three scoring threats that teams have to prepare for and each brings a different matchup problem for the defense. We also have several other players that could be wildcards if ignored.

    So after all of this rambling my expectations are not wins and losses in the regular season, but for Coach K to work on lineups that will make it hard for teams that have not played Duke to figure out a good game plan.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Kewlswim View Post
    Hi,

    I know I have been a bit flippant in some of my posts recently, but I am serious about this one.

    You don't think that Lance is starting to play much better and be more assertive? You don't feel that Greg is starting to add more than he has in quite a while? You don't think Kyle might have been a little tired for a couple of games and is now playing really well? You don't feel that Coach K is using his bench more than in recent years and giving lots of players a chance to contribute? You don't feel that Coach K is looking more and more "into it" as the season progresses?

    Are you accounting for the level of competition? We haven't lost to bad teams that are unranked in this recent skid. However, we did lose to Michigan and then the ship was righted.

    I feel people are being harsh, way too harsh, on this team. I think one must take into account the level of the competition and where games are played. The Devils were one play from winning at Wake. I feel that at Clemson the whole thing could have gone south, but it didn't! The ship was righted against Miami. Do you really feel that the team played poorly last night? Do you not give any credit to the Tar Heels playing well? Is every Duke loss because Duke is playing badly?

    Let's see what happens on the road on Sunday. I think that is more of a litmus test than losing to a team that was supposed to go undefeated and their point guard plays like an NBA lottery pick. I don't think many if any teams would have been able to withstand the Tar Heels defensive pressure and offensive prowess demonstrated last night. Who knows maybe the Heels peaked last night and the Devils are just starting their ascent?

    GO DUKE!
    Excellent post.

    I do believe their is something strange about Duke this year. Certainly we have looked terrible at times (e.g. Clemson), especially on the offensive side of the ball. However, at times we have also looked like a beautiful, fun motion offense firing on all cylinders (e.g. Maryland, Xavier, UNC last 10 min of first half). Our defense (UNC second half notwithstanding) has been amazing and statistically one of Duke's best ever.

    So my heart tells me that Duke this year is too good to not make a run in the tourney. I just hope this team has not peaked early like it has in the past several seasons.

    I guess what I'm saying is that this year will be a very, very unpredicable tournament for Duke. We could easily lose in the 2nd round again, but have the talent and defense to make a Final Four run.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Kyle is a talented college player -no doubt- but does his game really translate to the NBA? I have a hard time coming up with a comparable player in the current NBA. What player's game in the NBA is comparable?
    Of course, Kyle today is far from his ultimate potential but when he eventually reaches the level of experience of someone like a Luke Walton or a Matt Barnes, I can foresee Kyle being as good or better an NBA player.

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