What Is The Realistic Expectations For This Year's and Next Year's Team

[Zeke]

IMO we will have trouble getting through the 2nd day of the ACC and the first weekend of the NCAA. I hope Henderson and Singlar stay but the money they will be offered will be very tempting.

[jv001]

This year: Strictly depends on our match ups. If we draw a team that has 2 quick guards, we are in for a lot of trouble. I say that we make it to the Sweet Sixteen by luck of the draw. Then we are in lot's of trouble.

Next year: I say we get Gerald and Kyle back. However the key will remain Nolan Smith and his adjustment to running the team. I do not think we will land John Wall(handlers). I look for Nolan to step up his play and we make the FF. Winning it is another matter. Too much luck involved to predict. Go Duke!

[Devilsfan]

This year we're a team of over achievers. A team to be proud of considering our power inside game and our guard play.

Next year I only hope we over achieve again. We still won't have a strong inside game and we will have two of our three guards back.

[kinghoops]

Hi,

Kinghoops, I've enjoyed reading your posts and your responses to mine. I feel we are both on the same side. You are just looking at things a bit differently than I, that's great. As Coach Wooden once said, "If everyone is thinking the same, then nobody is really thinking." I feel that Nolan Smith has shown flashes of brilliance. I agree he was steadier earlier in the season, but once one gets into conference play the pressure is different. We can go back and forth on one player or another or on the general level of play.

I would prefer to have a team with upside on the 12th of February than a team that can no longer get better because it has none. The players, and that includes G and Kyle, still have upside. I don't think they have peaked this season. Might I be wrong? Sure, let's see what transpires.

GO DUKE!

you are very correct that we are on the same side. i want to see this team win games as much as anyone, i just feel there has been a drop off since conference play started. and from reading most of the threads on this board, it seems most are content to say well carolina played well, and they did, but imo duke contributed to them playing well. and i agree this team does have some upside, but i want to see it come to fruition. and to be honest, i just dont see that right now.

[devildownunder]

It's all about matchups and getting on a hot streak in the NCAAs. Two eight seeds - Wisconsin and UNC - made it to the Final Four in 2000, and #11 seeded George Mason made the FF in 2006.

Teams can get on a roll. Don't lose hope.

Y'know what, a lot of people say this but I don't buy it. I think it's just what the losing side says to demonstrate why, let me turn it around. K is considered the best coach of his generation. Why is that? Primarily because of 7 FFs in 9 years and 3 national championships. But if tournament success is all based on hot streaks and the luck of the draw, then why should K -- or any coach -- be able to build a reputation on the strength of postseason success?

I agree that the one-and-done format does make upsets a greater possibility but I think that the vast majority of teams that have tournament success earn it with strong play that is indicative of the strengths they developed over the course of the year.

Season in and season out, the tournament produces teams that are surprises but are most of them due to teams just getting lucky or is it far more often the case that the public was simply unaware of how good a team was? I submit that it's more likely to be the latter.

The blue devils' struggles in the NCAA tournament lately haven't been the result of luck, IMO, any more than their successes were in the past. I think the recent editions have had some flaws to try to overcome that get tougher and tougher to handle as the competition gets better.

...But I won't lose hope!!!

[devildownunder]

I don't think anything is obvious in this regard. At the time, was the 1991 Duke team considered to be a "national championship caliber team"? They'd been to the NCAA finals the year before but they got beat by 30. They had 7 losses and before the NCAAs were only 7-5 against ranked teams (1-2 against out-of-conference ranked teams). They got clobbered in the ACC tournament.

It sounds like it was before your time, but NC State in 1983 and Villanova in 1985 were not considered to be national championship contenders, nor was Arizona in 1997. This year's Duke team is as good as any of those teams.

Personally, I think you should keep your internal expectations low enough so that you'll be disappointed but not devastated if/when they lose. At the same time, you shouldn't be overly critical of your team or give off negative vibes. Beyond that, I see no value in laying on the pressure of high expectations or of placing the restrictions of low ones. Let the team shoot for the stars and then be happy wherever it takes them.

You think this year's Duke team, right now, is as good as Arizona was throughout the regular season in 1997?

[burns15]

I believe strongly that we may be seeing the exact reverse of what happened after last years UNC game. Throughout that game and in the weeks following Carolina was still figuring out all the pieces they had and how they best fit together, especially once lawson returned. We on the other hand took a sharp downturn not long after that game causing most people to say we had "peaked" too early.

So what if the shoe is on the other foot now? What if the greatest team ever peaked last night in Cameron?

Obviously this Duke team has not put it all together offensively yet. From what we know of our guys offensive abilities and the way they have produced in the past, we know that we have not played our best offensively yet all year. What if the team has not peaked yet and will peak when the time is right in March? If I am not mistaken thats what a lot of people on here wanted last year. They complained we have peaked too early the past 5-6 years. Well maybe Coach K has figured it out and has a plan to help us play best in March. I for one trust that he does and trust that he knows what he is doing. The clincher for me was his press conference after the game saying, "We are not as good as we can be, we are still improving," while sounding immensely confident that he knew where this team was going and how to get it there. If Coach K is not concerned, Im not

[Uncle Drew]

I wasn't surpised at the result of the UNC game, but I was scratching my head in the way things played out. Duke got down and it looked like it could be on the verge of an ugly game to watch. Then they came back and not only took the lead but took a nice lead and seemed to be playing well. I don't think the technical killed momentum, I think it was gone shortly before the half. But at some point in the second half it looked as if Duke couldn't buy a basket (relying way too much on 3's) and couldn't stop UNC (Lawson to be specific) from adding to their lead.

The thing I feel about this team and last years team is "teased". I don't know really a better word for it. When McRoberts went pro and there was so much tallent returning around the conference I pictured a down year, a VERY down year. But by adding a few new wrinkles in the same old game plan Duke looked great most of the year going into February. Then the slide started and it looked like the rest of the year they would struggle to beat a high school team. Losing Nelson I pictured about the same kind of year if not worse this year. But for whatever reason Duke looked good early in the year and it all seemed to climax against Matyland when they looked like world beaters.

So it's odd when I say my expectations have been low the last two seasons only to be pleasantly surprised going into February. Yet both years, I don't know if it's oposing coaches figuring out what works against Duke, Duke players hitting slumps or the wall. But it's been kind of like going on a blind date. You're pessimistic thinking she's going to be less than hot and you meet her and she looks like a model. Then you go out with her and find out despite awesome looks she has two or three traits / habits that are obvious flaws and deal breakers. Don't get me wrong I'm not giving up on this team and I didn't give up on last years team until the final buzzer sounded. But both teams seemed to be totally on or totally off and it could last a few minutes or and entire game like against Clemson. I don't know what the switch is that "energizes" the players or makes them look like they are playing in wet concrete. But as confusing as it is to the fans I'll bet it's even puzzling to the coaches and players.

I don't want to say this team has peaked, because just like last season there is a ton of improvement that could be made between now and March. The thing is I'm not sure I see signs of that improvement. Past years to lose it took Duke having a bad night and the other team having a career night. The last two seasons it seems like under the right circumstance they could beat or lose to anyone. I said in a thread after the Michigan loss that this team and last years team played down or up to their competition. People disagreed with me and said as much. But aside from the Maryland and a few other games against much lesser opponents they have seemed to be on cruise control.

I think devildownunder makes some very valid points saying it hasn't all been bad match up draws when Duke has lost in the NCAA's. And truthfully even against those foes IMO Duke has played into the hands of those teams by hoisting up (even open) three's and keeping guards from getting to the paint. If you look at what this teams true strengths are, they are not a great three point shooting team. And despite a dominant inside game they are a decent if not good rebounding team. I'd like to see Duke at least try to work it inside more even if the ball gets kicked out. But it seems they have lost confidence in getting the ball down low and then having players cut to the rim for a pass or tip in rebound. Sure if Duke is firing on all cylinders from three they are deadly and it even opens up the inside as well. But logic says some inside baskets (even fouls) opens up the outside just as much if not more. I'm sure players are bummed as we fans are a little bummed but the energy and ball movement isn't there for 40 minutes a game.

If I had to predict right now I'd guess Duke will make it to Saturday in the ACC Tournament, with a 50/50 shot of making it to Sunday where they would NOT be favored. We don't know what is going to happen the rest of the season so seeding right now will be hard to predict for the NCAA's. But as a #4 seed or higher I can see the first game in Duke's favor and then a 75% chance of beating their second opponent to make the round of 16. Now teams get hot and teams go cold. If this team decides they want it bad enough I can see them making some real noise. But I wouldn't bet either of my ex wives on it at this point.

On a final note Clemson took a lot of heat in the polls because everyone thought same old Clemson before they have shown they are a different team than past years. Well frankly I think Duke was shown a lot of respect in the polls due to being Duke they may not have deserved with February apporoaching. I know which team I think is playing better ball right now and I'd much rather face the heels or Wake again as opposed to the Tigers. Thank you for your time, feel free to disagree. I still bleed Dark blue and as always Go To Hell Carolina Go To Hell.

[NYC Duke Fan]

I believe strongly that we may be seeing the exact reverse of what happened after last years UNC game. Throughout that game and in the weeks following Carolina was still figuring out all the pieces they had and how they best fit together, especially once lawson returned. We on the other hand took a sharp downturn not long after that game causing most people to say we had "peaked" too early.

So what if the shoe is on the other foot now? What if the greatest team ever peaked last night in Cameron?

Obviously this Duke team has not put it all together offensively yet. From what we know of our guys offensive abilities and the way they have produced in the past, we know that we have not played our best offensively yet all year. What if the team has not peaked yet and will peak when the time is right in March? If I am not mistaken thats what a lot of people on here wanted last year. They complained we have peaked too early the past 5-6 years. Well maybe Coach K has figured it out and has a plan to help us play best in March. I for one trust that he does and trust that he knows what he is doing. The clincher for me was his press conference after the game saying, "We are not as good as we can be, we are still improving," while sounding immensely confident that he knew where this team was going and how to get it there. If Coach K is not concerned, Im not

Sorry to respectfully disagree but I don't think that Coach K is thinking what you have posted. He just doesn't have the players...no inside presence, no penetrating PG, no athletic big man. I know that he tried with Patterson and Monroe, both of whom would have made a world of difference, and I know that he tried with Boynton, who would make a huge difference next year. But for reasons only known to the three players, none of them wanted to come to Duke to play for Coach K.

I hope that I am mistaken, but I just cannot see Duke, with the current personnel, winning 6 straight games...5 against quality ones.

At the beginning of the year there was great hope that this team was going to be special. Not to take anything away from the players, it has become a good Duke team but not a special team.

[Davidson09]

This year's Duke team is very good. But it lacks a strong inside presence that will be necessary to take on some of the tougher teams out there (read: UConn, Wake). I think as of now, this team will be a 2 seed again, getting into the Sweet 16, and losing to an underranked 3.

Next year, though, if everyone stays healthy, and G and Scheyer and Singler come back, with Nolan Smith at the PG and developing big men (Ryan Kelly, Plumlee, more of Zoubek), Duke could be unstoppable.

But I don't think this is the year.

BTW I don't know if any of you saw/care, but Davidson lost to College of Charleston on Saturday night at home. We had won 43 consecutive regular season conference games up to that point. The Southern Conference record is 44, set by West Virginia in the 50s. So, that stung a little bit. Obviously any and all losses here on out (excluding Butler) will hurt us quite a bit.

But we drew Butler in the Bracketbusters, and the game will be on ESPN at noon on Saturday, Feb. 21.

[Saratoga2]

All I can respond to is what has happened on the court. We have three excellent all around players in Singler, Henderson and Scheyer.

With them, we have McClure who plays excellent defense and can guard most players on the floor, perhaps with the exception of really big forwards/centers.

Nolan has improved and is getting more aggressive on the offensive side. His main weapon is his speed. His main drawback has been his inexperience at point. If he plays in the NBA it will be at point, so he needs to continue to develop his court awareness. I expect him to add a lot going down the stretch this year and be one of our better players next year.

Paulus has been playing much more aggressively and has contributed in the last couple of games. He can help us in our tournament run and won't be around for next year.

Thomas is showing signs of being more competitive. He is not a premier forward at this point, but is giving valuable minutes. Zoubek is also doing some good things, but is also not a premier center.

Given the status of Thomas and Zoubek, I often wonder why Plumlee is not getting more minutes. He has the athleticism and size to make a contribution now.

I also see a lot in Williams. He has ball handling equivalent to Henderson, great athletism and equivalent size. Clearly he needs to develop his court awareness. Giving him minutes in games may keep other wing players fresher while not hurting the team too much. Next year he should play get a lot more minutes.

Neither Pocius or Czyz show well in game situations and won't help us this year. Maybe next year but we shall see.

This team has deficiencies inside and at the point. I think our point play will improve going into th tournament which will still leave us vulnerable against the top tier teams. How far we go will depend oon matchups.

For next year,we will have Kelly and Plumlee II coming. If we don't lose Singler, we will have a lot of blgs competing for time. Maybe Miles, Mason or Ryan will add muscle and contribute at our weakest spot.

If we get Wall, we have a second legitimate point player and will be very effective at that position.

If we lose Henderson, we may have to play 3 big players in the lineup. Too early to tell how good we can be, but relying on freshmen to contribute is risky. Perhaps we will have another Singler in Plumlee or Kelly.

[whereinthehellami]

If Henderson goes pro next year, Duke takes a big step back. If Singler also goes pro, Duke is in some serious trouble (NCAA qualifying trouble).

Duke isn't getting Wall.

[Kedsy]

You think this year's Duke team, right now, is as good as Arizona was throughout the regular season in 1997?

That Arizona team lost 7 conference games (9 overall), including 5 conference losses to unranked teams and two conference losses to teams ranked #23 and #24. Once conference play started, their only victories over ranked teams were a one point victory (at home) over #21 Stanford and a nine point victory (also at home) against an overrated Tulane team.

So, actually I think this year's Duke team is better then that Arizona team, at least based on performance.

[Kedsy]

If Henderson goes pro next year, Duke takes a big step back. If Singler also goes pro, Duke is in some serious trouble (NCAA qualifying trouble).

NCAA qualifying trouble? That's just silly.

[NYC Duke Fan]

If Henderson goes pro next year, Duke takes a big step back. If Singler also goes pro, Duke is in some serious trouble (NCAA qualifying trouble).

Duke isn't getting Wall.

Totally agree with everything that you say. I assume that Coach K thought about both possibilities and I am not sure what his contingency plan is.

If Henderson decides to stay I would assume it is because he thinks that Duke has a legitimate chance for a championship, otherwise there is probably no reason for him to stay.

[CDu]

NCAA qualifying trouble? That's just silly.

Well, I don't think we'll be in NCAA qualifying trouble, but I don't think suggesting the possibility is silly. If we don't have Henderson and Singler next year (along with no Paulus and no McClure), we're looking at:

Smith
Scheyer
Williams
Ma Plumlee/Thomas/Kelly
Thomas/Zoubek/Mi Plumlee

With a bench of maybe Jordan Davidson (if he decides to return), maybe Pocius (ditto), whomever doesn't start in the frontcourt, and Czyz.

There's certainly the potential to be a really good team with just those guys, but it's asking for quite a bit of improvement from a lot of guys and/or big impact from the incoming frosh. It certainly wouldn't be unheard of for us to be a bubble team in that scenario.

That said, next year is a long way away. We don't know if Singler or Henderson will leave. We don't know how good the other players will get. It requires too much speculation.

[CDu]

Totally agree with everything that you say. I assume that Coach K thought about both possibilities and I am not sure what his contingency plan is.

If Henderson decides to stay I would assume it is because he thinks that Duke has a legitimate chance for a championship, otherwise there is probably no reason for him to stay.

There are a few possible reasons why Henderson might stay, including:
- improve his draft stock (we don't know if he's a lottery pick right now)
- maybe he really likes his college buddies
- maybe he likes playing for Coach K
- maybe he wants another shot to win vs Carolina in Cameron (not a likely reason, but you never know)
- just doesn't feel ready for the NBA game/lifestyle, and wants another year of success in college ball

To say that there's no reason for him to stay other than a championship is very limiting. We don't have any idea exactly what all will go into Henderson's decision.

[Johnboy]

Season in and season out, the tournament produces teams that are surprises but are most of them due to teams just getting lucky or is it far more often the case that the public was simply unaware of how good a team was? I submit that it's more likely to be the latter.

The blue devils' struggles in the NCAA tournament lately haven't been the result of luck, IMO, any more than their successes were in the past. I think the recent editions have had some flaws to try to overcome that get tougher and tougher to handle as the competition gets better.

...But I won't lose hope!!!

I never said the NCAAs were ALL about hot streaks and luck of the draw. no need for reductio ad absurdum. What I said (or meant, anyway) is that we are perfectly capable of getting on a hot streak (like the one we saw in the first half of the game) and we may get matchups that are favorable, so we should adopt a wait and see attitude.

I also think this team has a whole lot of upside left to find, despite some of the weaknesses that UNC exploited.

[Kedsy]

You think this year's Duke team, right now, is as good as Arizona was throughout the regular season in 1997?

Oh, I almost forgot, that Arizona team had (wait for it) no inside presence. Their season long rebound margin was 2.4, including their six wins in the NCAA tourney (ours is 5.1), and they only had 2.9 blocks per game (we have 4.3). And despite having Mike Bibby, their team assist-to-turnover ratio was only 1.1 (ours is 1.05). They pretty much relied on 3 big time players (Bibby, Simon, and Dickerson, although they also had an underachieving Jason Terry scoring 10 ppg). They only outscored their opponents (again, including the NCAAs) by 10, while we outscore our opponents by almost 16.

The more I think about it, the current Duke squad is a much better team than that Arizona team was, at least before the NCAA tournament started.

[miramar]

I think that there are two factors coloring our impressions right now: 1) Duke is going through a rough patch, and 2) Duke doesn't match up well with Carolina.

As far as #1 is concerned, Carolina had the same problem a few weeks back and righted the ship, and I expect that Duke will do the same. If you think abut it, we have been terrible four out of the last six halves: Clemson first (-12) and second (-15), Miami first (-13), and Carolina second (-22!).

Duke's shooting has been horrendous in those halves: Clemson first (33.3%, 16.7% 3PT) and second (28.6% for both), Miami first (19.4%, 25%), and Carolina second (36.1% and 13.3%). Obviously we can expect Duke's shooting to improve dramatically, but it needs to happen soon. This season seems to have gone by fast for me, and I can't believe that there are only two home games left.

#2 is far more problematic since Carolina is tough on the inside and they have the penetrating point guard that Duke has had trouble with the last few years. As has been noted, Lawson is Lawson, and Duke will always have trouble with him when he's on, but I have no doubt that Duke can do a better job against him. We seem to do better with Hansbrough than most teams, even with our lack of size.

My biggest disappointment is that it seems that Coach K has decided that the freshman will not be able to contribute this year, and that is something that I was really counting on, especially in the paint. I can only hope they stay positive and that we don't have the Burgess, King, Boyken, Boateng problem again.

As far as next year is concerned, it all depends on who returns and how much this year's freshman class develops.