Originally Posted by
CDu
We've basically hit the turn in the ACC schedule, with teams having played 7-9 ACC games so far. Right now, I think four teams are a given for the big dance: Duke, UNC, Wake, and Clemson. What is interesting to me is that four other teams have a reasonable shot at making the tournament as well: BC, FSU, Miami, and Va Tech.
Their cases:
BC - they are 6-3 in conference with a marquee win on the road against UNC. They wrap up the season with @Miami, FSU, @NC St, Ga Tech. The losses to Harvard and SLU aren't doing them any favors, but I think winning two of those four (getting them to 8-8 in the conference) and winning a game in the ACC tournament would be enough.
FSU - RPI top-30, 4-3 in the ACC, with wins over Cincy, UF, and Cal, no bad losses. Beating UNC would have REALLY helped. They don't have that marquee road win, but solid non-conference wins help. They have lots of winnable games left, with UVa, Va Tech, @Va Tech, Miami, and @BC. Stealing one against Clemson would really help their cause. Otherwise, they have to win 4 of those 5 games against the middle/lower teir ACC teams.
Miami - top-50 RPI (maybe higher), 4-5 in the ACC, big win over Wake and a win @UK. They have two opportunities with @Duke and UNC to make a strong case for themselves. They also close with @FSU, BC, @UVa, @Ga Tech, and NC St. They can't lose any of the last three if they want a strong case, but getting to 8-8 isn't out of the question.
Va Tech - top-40 RPI, 4-3 in the ACC, win over Wake, but some not-so-good losses to Seton Hall and @UGa. They have four winnable games in a row with NC St, Ga Tech, @Maryland, @UVa. If they win those four, they have a good case. The problem is that they can't then go 0-5 down the stretch with those bad losses. They'll probably need a win against FSU or against one of the big boys to seal it.
It's very unlikely that all four bubble teams get in. At least one will get in almost certainly, and I think at least two would be a safe bet. But it would be interesting and not out of the question for all four to have a good case come tourney time.