Phase I - 2009

[Jumbo]

It's here! Woohoo! Gameday! And the first phase of the season. Let's define this as today through the end of the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney. Assuming Duke makes it to New York, that's only five games (that Rhode Island contest is thrown in the middle), but it's a good test and a nice place to stop and evaluate, before plowing forward. Anyway, here's what I'll be watching as we build toward a potential matchup with UCLA.

To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that?
I think this team wants to run. But we've wanted to run the past couple of years, too, and bogged down against good teams. I'm hoping to see more trapping and pressing on D. But a key thing to look for are quick hit-aheads. If Duke really wants to run, the guys need to advance the ball with the pass, not the dribble. This is especially true without a pure point guard. So, I don't want to simply see a big guy grab a board and outlet to Paulus and Smith, who try to push it up the floor off the bounce. I don't want to see Singler, Henderson or Scheyer grab a board and take off up the floor. I want to see if Duke can locate a first outlet pass quickly, then make a quick hit-ahead down the wing, past halfcourt. That's how you run, and Duke should have enough versatile players to make that work.

How will Duke utilize Singler?
When last we left Kyle, he was standing outside, launching three after three. He has a nice jumper, but that's not the strength of his game. He can score off the bounce. He has legit post moves. He has an in-between game. Singler needs to start inside and work his way out. He has to give Duke some kind of a post presence, especially given that he'll be playing more 4 this year, giving him better matchups on the block. He needs to get to the FT line and help balance the offense. Obviously, we'll run a ton of pick-and-roll with him, and he'll get his share of jumpers. But let's see what K does to get him involved inside.

Who initiates the offense?
I don't think it's simply going to be the point guards. I expect Duke to run a lot of its offense through the wings. In particular, I'm interested to see how much Scheyer has the ball in his hands, and how often Paulus and Smith don't have the ball, setting up in the corner instead. For my money, Scheyer is the top playmaker on the team. I'm interested to see if K hands him the ball and lets him set up his teammates.

Will we see more motion?
Connected to the issue above, last year's offense was fairly stagnant. Duke looked to spread the floor (as always) and attack off the dribble. This team can do that, but also is built fairly well for more movement off the ball, screens, motion. The differences will be subtle, but I'm anxious to see if K has tweaked the offense to rely a little less on side ball-screens.

Who finishes the game at the point?
Smith? Paulus? Both? If we get to NYC, we could get our first look at how this will play out.

How does Duke adjust its man-to-man with Zoubek in the game?
This is a really interesting issue. Duke has to make some adjustments to accomodate Zoubek's defensive limitations if he's going to be a factor. So, let's how the Devils defend the pick and roll with Zoubek in there and how the ball pressure changes.

What can we reasonably expect from Plumlee and Williams?
Strong D out of both guys and some rebounding from Plumlee will be enough for me.

What will Duke's rotation look like in a close game?
I'm thinking it's nine guys for sure, maybe 10. You've got the current starting five -- Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Plumlee. Paulus, Zoubek, Williams and Thomas are definitely in. McClure is on the bubble. I think Pocius will be on the outside looking in. I don't see any way Czyz plays in a close game.

Just how much has Henderson progressed?
Everyone seems to think he's ready for a major star burst. Perhaps. But he still had a lot of room for improvement at the end of last season, notably his left hand, his court visions, his shooting range and his on-ball D.

Edit: Adding this one -- Will the new three-point line matter?
I'm guessing it won't, but we'll see.

There are many, many, many more questions to answer. But I'll be looking for clues to these during the first phase.

[Bob Green]

It's here! Woohoo! Gameday! And the first phase of the season.

Thanks for another great job analyzing the team. I've added my two cents on a couple of your points.

To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that? I think this team wants to run. But we've wanted to run the past couple of years, too, and bogged down against good teams. I'm hoping to see more trapping and pressing on D.

Hopefully we utilize our depth and pick up full court for long stretches of time. We should be able to run many teams right out of the gym by rotating in fresh players and playing continuous uptempo basketball.

How will Duke utilize Singler? He has to give Duke some kind of a post presence, especially given that he'll be playing more 4 this year, giving him better matchups on the block. He needs to get to the FT line and help balance the offense.

We need Singler at the 4 creating match-up problems for the opponent. In order for Singler to thrive at the 4, the combination of Plumlee and Zoubek have to get the job done in the post. The key is these two guys being a legitimate threat that occupies the attention of our opponent's big man allowing Singler to go to work against their second inside player. The main things we need from Plumlee and Zoubek are rebounds, putbacks off the offensive glass, good free throw percentages, and inside disruption of the opponent's offensive flow. If Plumlee and Zoubek play good to above average, Singler will have an All America quality season.

Who finishes the game at the point? Smith? Paulus? Both? If we get to NYC, we could get our first look at how this will play out.

This is the $64,000 question. I really hope Duke and UCLA play in the Championship Game so we can get an early indication of who is going to be on the court late in tough games.

What will Duke's rotation look like in a close game? I'm thinking it's nine guys for sure, maybe 10. You've got the current starting five -- Smith, Scheyer, Henderson, Singler and Plumlee. Paulus, Zoubek, Williams and Thomas are definitely in. McClure is on the bubble. I think Pocius will be on the outside looking in. I don't see any way Czyz plays in a close game.

I agree that the rotation will be nine or ten deep even in close games. We have 10 fundamentally sound scholarship players who are ready and able to contribute. We need to force the tempo and run teams into submission. When the fast break isn't there and we set up our half-court offense, we need to pound the ball inside with the dual benefit of getting to the free throw line and getting our opponent in foul trouble. A side benefit of being deep is being able to gamble with foul trouble ourselves.

We are solid, solid, solid at the 2, 3 & 4. The positions/players I will be intently observing during Phase 1 are point guard (Smith, Paulus, Scheyer) and center (Plumlee & Zoubek).

[gw67]

Jumbo - I like your list. The area that I will be watching during the Phase I games that I can watch will be passing, both on the fast break and in the half court. As you pointed out, last year there was a lot of one-on-one play by the wings. I hope that there is more motion and making the extra pass this year.

gw67

[dukelifer]

Just how much has Henderson progressed?
Everyone seems to think he's ready for a major star burst. Perhaps. But he still had a lot of room for improvement at the end of last season, notably his left hand, his court visions, his shooting range and his on-ball D.

My sense is for Duke to be great, Henderson needs to be very consistent this year- averaging in the mid to high teens - game in and game out - and be a very good rebounder- picking up the slack of not have Demarcus on the floor this year. In the last two years- he has disappeared at times with 4 -8 point performances. He has to pace himself better and explode when needed. Duke can certainly win without Henderson being great- but his ability to play at a high level consistently will ultimately determine how far this team goes at the end of the year.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Who finishes the game at the point?
Smith? Paulus? Both? If we get to NYC, we could get our first look at how this will play out.

I love this question, and think it can apply to Plumlee / Zoubek also. I think it's a better determining factor of need than who started. I'm not sure we won't have a good answer until we play (hopefully) UCLA. If any of these games is a blowout, then we will have to ask who was last on the floor before the final subs came in.

[Jeffrey]

We are solid, solid, solid at the 2, 3 & 4. The positions/players I will be intently observing during Phase 1 are point guard (Smith, Paulus, Scheyer)....

Hi,

IMO, we are solid at the point. Nolan Smith will be one of the best PG's in the country this year. Next year... watch out!

Best regards,
Jeffrey

[BlueintheFace]

I would also add, to what degree do we see our big men get the ball on the block? This is not something that ever really happened last year. However, I have a feeling that K might feel that a little offensive diversity here will only help the team in March this time around... especially if what I hear about Plumlee's passing ability out of the block is correct. I'm not saying "feed the ball down low" will ever be our game plan, but I expect that we will do this a little bit more than last year...

[elvis14]

Great list Jumbo. Here are a couple of things I'll be looking for as well:

1. Passing in the paint and on the pick and roll. Last year our offense was build around drive and kick and the 3. I'm OK with that. At the same time I would like to see us get some more layups by driving and dishing in the paint in addition to the kick outs. This helps us in a couple of ways. First it makes the kick out for the 3 even more open (if teams have to respect the interior a bit more) and I think it'll get us to the free throw line more putting the other teams bigs in more foul trouble. A similar issue is simply making good entry passes off of the pick and roll. This is where I think Zoubek could be useful. Last year there were times where Z would set a pick and roll to the paint putting himself in great position (almost like he'd been well coached!) for an entry pass with a smaller defender sealed behind him and the pass didn't happen. I think we are giving up some solid points there. Also if someone has to double down on Z or Miles on the pick and roll...well there's another open 3 for Duke! In either case I just want to see a little more passing in the paint, easy baskets, and fouls. Note, I'm not suggesting we abandon our offense, just take easy shots when they are given. I'd love to see Nolan beating his man into the paint and hitting Singler for easy layups once Singler's man rotates to help.
2. I'm one of the people that have been calling for Nolan to start since he got here. I really hope he steps up and plays well.
3. I agree with what Jumbo says about using the pass to run the floor. We need to rebound well on the defensive end to make this happen.
4. What will we get out of Lance Thomas (great guy, works hard, but IMHO just isn't rebounding and scoring enough) and Dave McClure (great guy, has been injured, no offense, great defense and intangibles)?
5. Will Henderson take his game up a notch. If he can consistently play well and occasionally play great (meaning have games where he is unstoppable) we are really going to enjoy this season
6. I have tickets to the second came Tuesday in CIS...doesn't really add anything to the conversation I'm just really really happy about that!! Whoo Hoo!

[COYS]

To what degree will Duke look to force a desired pace/tempo, and how will the team accomplish that?
I think this team wants to run. But we've wanted to run the past couple of years, too, and bogged down against good teams. I'm hoping to see more trapping and pressing on D. But a key thing to look for are quick hit-aheads. If Duke really wants to run, the guys need to advance the ball with the pass, not the dribble. This is especially true without a pure point guard. So, I don't want to simply see a big guy grab a board and outlet to Paulus and Smith, who try to push it up the floor off the bounce. I don't want to see Singler, Henderson or Scheyer grab a board and take off up the floor. I want to see if Duke can locate a first outlet pass quickly, then make a quick hit-ahead down the wing, past halfcourt. That's how you run, and Duke should have enough versatile players to make that work.

Great point, as always, Jumbo. This was a big concern of mine last year, but my hope is that the play of Zoubek/Plumlee in the post will take care of a lot of this just by grabbing boards. Hopefully our guards won't have to worry about crashing the boards quite as much as last year and can concentrate on getting in position to receive a quick outlet and then pass the ball up the court quickly. If we can do this successfully, the efficiency of our offense will increase dramatically, we'll play to the strength of our perimeter guys and to our depth, and we'll run many teams out of the gym. Against the better teams, even just a few fast break opportunities created by good passing will be key to get a few extra high percentage shots, which could be the deciding factor in a close game. Although I think our post play will be much improved this year, there still will be games when the threes and other jumpers aren't falling and our half-court offense seems a little weak. If we still can't get easy buckets by dumping the ball into the post, creating our own fast breaks off of defensive rebounds will be key to preventing scoring droughts and jump-starting the offense.

[mkirsh]

I agree with Bob - in order for Singler to have a great year and truly be an inside-out threat, we need good production from Plumlee/Zoubek and I would throw Thomas in there as well. If those 3 can play the 5 position, that will free up Singler to play the 4. If those 3 don't produce, you will see a lot of the Singler-Henderson-Scheyer-Smith-Paulus small ball lineup, which limits Singler's effectiveness and wore him down a lot last year. We all know Coach K does tend to prefer to go with a smaller and more mobile lineup, so Plumlee, Zoubek, and Thomas have to play very well to prevent that tendency (and the subsequent 10,000 small ball threads on DBR that I hope not to read this year).

[whereinthehellami]

Can Duke get to the next level with only Singler being a 1st team ACC player? It seems like alot of fans are pinning Duke's expectations on the chest of Henderson. What happens if Henderson is still inconsistent or isn't the MAN? Can Duke get to the next level? I think they can to an extent. With the talent and experience that Duke has I think they can get to the final 4.

[sagegrouse]

Can Duke get to the next level with only Singler being a 1st team ACC player? It seems like alot of fans are pinning Duke's expectations on the chest of Henderson. What happens if Henderson is still inconsistent or isn't the MAN? Can Duke get to the next level? I think they can to an extent. With the talent and experience that Duke has I think they can get to the final 4.

I agree that Singler is a known quantity and should improve this year from the starring role he played last year as a freshman.

Gerald is the big question to me -- not his talent level, but the whole package including cockiness, determination, and a "give me the damned ball" attitude. His emergence would give us two legitimate all-ACC level players.

Now, to my surprise, Gerald was picked pre-season first team all-ACC. Where did this come from??? I refuse to believe the scribes watch a lot of film and build elaborate tables of strengths and weaknesses. I guess it has a lot to do with the Hansbrough episode and the fact that all publicity is good publicity, no matter the apparent context.

I don't want to overlook known quantities like Scheyer, who will play a Jim Spanarkel-like role as the glue that holds the team together, and Paulus, whose shooting can be deadly. I have high hopes that Nolan will be a good point guard and a defensive stopper, the latter being the most important given the skills of the folks mentioned above.

Also, we need something in the middle. Seems like we should expect the equivalent of one serviceable big man out of the combination of MP1, Zoubs and LT. Anything beyond a little bit of offense, decent defense and aggressive rebounding is gravy.

sagegrouse

[Bob Green]

IMO, we are solid at the point. Nolan Smith will be one of the best PG's in the country this year. Next year... watch out!

I believe we have the potential to be solid at the point and Nolan Smith has the potential to be one of the best PGs in the country. However, Smith has to go out on the court and prove it. I'm optimistic he will.

[COYS]

I agree that Singler is a known quantity and should improve this year from the starring role he played last year as a freshman.

I know you didn't mean this to disparage Singler in any way, but I think that he's only a known quantity in that he was great last year and we expect him to be great again this year. The question is, how great can he become? I firmly believe that with his improved strength, conditioning, and experience, he may actually be the biggest breakout player on Duke's team this year. I understand why everyone is excited about Hendo, and I certainly am, too. But I still expect to see Singler leading the team in scoring this year and, if he's improved as much as it seems he has from the reports from the exhibition games, he may push that scoring average well up into the upper teens. Last year, he was really good, and unbelievable for a freshman, but he battled inconsistency late in the season as he wore down. His a/to ratio was also lower than I think he's capable of. If he improves his already solid playmaking ability and adds that to increased scoring and rebounding numbers, I think he's got the potential to sneak up on everyone (even some of the fans) and have a monster season.

[Devil07]

Although I don't think we will know unless we (hopefully) play UCLA, I'm most interested to see who finishes the game at the 5. I'm inclined to think it will be Singler, but late game rebounding really killed us last season. Although not having to guard the opposing team's center all game should keep Singler fresh for the last few minutes, I do worry about going small at the end of games. If Plumlee/Zoubek are trusted with finishing games I think that would give us a lot more crunch time flexibility.

[Wander]

Perhaps we will see more offense/defense micromanagement than usual at the end of close games? (quick subbing between Paulus and Smith). I can't imagine not having Paulus in there, but I also don't want to see Singler at the 5.

[Jumbo]

I'm adding one:
Will the new three-point line matter?
I'm guessing it won't, but we'll see.

[BlueintheFace]

I'm adding one:
Will the new three-point line matter?
I'm guessing it won't, but we'll see.

My guess is that the player who it will impact most is G. If he hits threes this season, then defenders will be forced to push out on him, thusly opening up more space for him to get by with that first step or two. This of course, means that he will have more space to decide: A) whether or not to take it to the hoop depending on how fast the help defense is rolling, and B) if the defense rotates, where the open man is for the kick out (presumably left corner or right corner at the three point line).

... the same goes for scheyer if he can get that defender to hesitate on that shot-fake he loves so much long enough to initiate the drive.

[socaldukie]

It still amazes me how under appreciated a guy like Scheyer is. He means so much to this team and contributes in so many ways. Yet, most all want to talk about is Singler and Hendo.

I have every bit of confidence in Scheyer taking over games and being one of the main reasons we have a long run into March/April.

All I am saying is I think he is much, much more than just a glue guy.

[Jumbo]

It still amazes me how under appreciated a guy like Scheyer is. He means so much to this team and contributes in so many ways. Yet, most all want to talk about is Singler and Hendo.

I have every bit of confidence in Scheyer taking over games and being one of the main reasons we have a long run into March/April.

All I am saying is I think he is much, much more than just a glue guy.

See my Phase 0 thread ...