Most Improved Player?

[BlueintheFace]

I miss actual Duke basketball threads so I figure it's time for a little more off-season speculating...

Who do you think will see the greatest improvement in their game this year?

Last year it was definitely Paulus. Anytime you cut your turnovers in half as a pg and become a go-to scorer in the clutch you pretty much take the award, but what about this year?

I am tempted to say that it will be Gerald. This seems to be the logical choice, but my heart wants the answer to be Zoubek. Arguments can certainly be made for Nolan or Lance aswell. I think Kyle's game is so well rounded right now that it will be hard for him to make huge visible improvements in any one area... the same goes for Scheyer. So what are your thoughts?

[Ders24]

I'm going with Brian. I think last year he would have been pretty good has he not been injured. I'm also saying this because I think him being most improved would have the most impact on our team, so I hope it's him.

[mgtr]

I agree with the choice of Zoubek. I have stated in other posts if he can give us 15-20 good minutes per game, it will transform our team. Here's hoping!!!!

[ACCBBallFan]

Relative to low expectations Zoubek, Paulus and very possibly Marty, maybe Lance too.

I am not sure expectations are low, but Noaln Smith will be very improved.

As ususal expectations for all three frosh are too high.

Singler, Henderson and Scheyer are already so good, hard for them to be the most improved, though they may be the best three players.

McClure is a known quantity, very steady but not likely to improve a whole lot.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

Mr Lance Thomas

[chrishoke]

It will not be Brian.

[Acymetric]

It will not be Brian.

I'm not entirely sure, but I'm predicting that it will either be Brian, Greg, or Gerald. People will say "but he's already so good!" but a lot of people, myself included, are hoping for a break out year from him. If he really takes his game up this year its very possible that he will turn out to be most improved. I think either G or Brian improving would have the best impact on the team.

Of course I think everyone will improve, but we're talking about the most improvement. Can I just say that I'm really excited about basketball season? Its a good thing I've got football to distract me until November.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Thad Lewis. And he's still a work in progress under the best QB teacher in the game.

[Newton_14]

I am going with Nolan and Kyle in that order. The biggest jump normally comes in the 2nd year and I really expect we will see a big jump in Nolan's contribution. Kyle will likely get better too, but he played at such a high level last year, the biggest improvement for him will likely be sustaining a high level of play into the post-season. If Kyle is hitting on all cylinders in the tourney's we will be difficult to deal with...

[DevilCastDownfromDurham]

I am going with Nolan and Kyle in that order. The biggest jump normally comes in the 2nd year and I really expect we will see a big jump in Nolan's contribution. Kyle will likely get better too, but he played at such a high level last year, the biggest improvement for him will likely be sustaining a high level of play into the post-season. If Kyle is hitting on all cylinders in the tourney's we will be difficult to deal with...

I think Nolan's a great answer. I agree that the Fr-Soph bump will be major, but he'll also benefit from a greatly-increased role on the team. I expect Jon to take Markie's spot in the starting rotation, but I suspect Nolan will log heavy minutes doing what Markie did so well for the team: acting as a defensive stopper. If he can handle PG duties as well, Nolan may have the sort of "starting 6th man" role that Jon had last season.

Also agree that Kyle should improve, particularly if he can stick to his natural position a bit more, especially on the defensive end. The best news, IMO, is that almost everyone on this team is in a position to make a big jump. I'm very excited to watch this team grow.

I'll also add a half-serious dark horse candidate: Coach K. I think the combination of everything he's learned from the Olympics (esp the new carefree attitude) and finally being able to give his full attention to an exciting team will bring out the best in K.

[RainingThrees]

It will be Gerald. Some people will say the surgery hurt his development but I disagree. Last year he could only go to his right which is his dominant hand. With his right hand out he had to do everything left handed. This will be huge for his game since he will be able to hit that mid-range shot going either way, or drive for a layup either way. Much harder to guard.

[Uncle Drew]

I love threads where terms like "most improved" are left up to interpretation. By that I mean if a player averaged 2 points and 1 rebound last season, then gets 4 points 2 rebounds next year. I could say player X doubled their scorring and rebounding, hence they MUST be the most improved player on the team.

I agree with other posters that a few players played at a high enough level last season to take them out of the mix. That being said, I think if Henderson and Zoubek are healthy they both contribute MUCH more in key times than last year. And we don't know what McClure and Marty will be able to do coming off injury, both have shown flashes of stellar play over the years. My money would have to go on Lance IF he has put some time in the weight room. His athletic abilty is just screaming to breakout, he just hasn't had the body mass to impose his will on opposing teams yet. If not Lance then Smith as I can see him being used to dribble penetrate as well as anyone on the team.

[SilkyJ]

It will not be Brian.

any explanation? b/c expectations are so low, i think it could be him. 8pts/8rebs gets him the award almost certainly, maybe even 7/7.

[heyman25]

My 3 are 1 Lance Thomas 2 Nolan Smith 3 Martynas Pocius
If Brian Zoubek makes major improvements I will be happy for him and the Team
Lance is always too jittery. If he lets the game come to him he will be a big part of our improvement.
For Nolan I am expecting to be consistent and steady this year.

I always liked Martynas. He is the only player I had a chance to meet in person.
I hope he worked hard improving his defense and lateral speed. He could always score.

I expect Henderson, Singler and Scheyer to lead the team in scoring and be the go to guys. They should be the Kobe LeBron Dwayne for Duke this season.

[A-Tex Devil]

Scheyer are already so good

I'll disagree here. Scheyer has a lot of room to improve. Love his potential game, but I just don't get the folks saying he was one of the best players on our team last year (I would argue Nelson, Singler, Paulus, Henderson and Smith were all better than him last year). His great games overshadow those games (which were a lot) where he was a non-factor.

Just MHO, but he could definitely step up this year and be the most improved. I like the idea of us playing like the Olympic team. Looking forward to this year.

[ACCBBallFan]

I said Jon Scheyer was good, not that he was appreciated by the masses.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/teams/...t=freeThrowPct

Take a look at team per game stats:

Minutes played - 3rd
Points per game - 4th
Rebounds - 4th
Assists - 3rd
Turnovers - 6th better than any you mentioned
Assist ot Turnover - 1st
Steals - 3rd
Blocks - 7th
Fouls - 8th where higher is better with so many minutes
FG% - 7th where guards score lower in this metric
FT% - 2nd @ 88.9% only to Marty's 4 for 4 100%
3 pt % - 2nd
Points per shot - 1st

On gross metrics:

FG Made - 5th
FG Attempted - 5th
FT Made - 1st
FT Attempted - 3rd
3 pt Made - 3rd
3 pt Attempted - 3rd

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm going with Zoubek. Going into the season uninjured (knock on wood) can only make things better for him.

[jv001]

Most Improved Nolan Smith
Next; Brian Zoubek
If Nolan improves as much as I think he will, we will be really good and if Brian improves as much as I hope he does, we will be very very good.

[sagegrouse]

I love threads where terms like "most improved" are left up to interpretation. By that I mean if a player averaged 2 points and 1 rebound last season, then gets 4 points 2 rebounds next year. I could say player X doubled their scorring and rebounding, hence they MUST be the most improved player on the team.

I think the best metrics would be arithmetic increases, not geometric increases. I.e., how many more minutes, PPG, rebounds, assists, etc. Ratios (geometric increases) are not good measures unless the denominators are comparable.

Now, what are the best metrics? I think they would be highly correlated. I might even argue that an "input" measure like minutes played might be relevant (as opposed to "output" measures like points, RB, assists). I mean, if the coaching staff decides to put a player on the floor for 20+ minutes per game who played only sparingly last year, he must be valuable to the team.

But here's an illuminating example:

Last year Lance was 18.5 min./4.3 pts./ 3.3 RBs.
Brian was 10.5/3.8/3.4.

It is conceivable that both players could average 20 mins. this coming season. Based on productivity last year (i.e., similar outcomes, many fewer minutes), you would expect Brian to have the better statistics. We'll see -- either one could really take off -- which is fine with me.

Random thoughts, but it's before 7AM.

sagegrouse

[Diddy]

Just MHO, but he could definitely step up this year and be the most improved. I like the idea of us playing like the Olympic team. Looking forward to this year.

I agree with you re: Scheyer, but this board needs to tone down the "play like the olympians" rhetoric.

In China, K had Lebron, Kobe, and D-Wade, arguable the three greatest players alive today, and certainly the three best wing players in the world. While our wings are good, the probably are not the best wing tandom in the nation, and may not be the best wing group in the state. Also, we don't have a post like Redeem had.

I know that people are talking about style of play, but what worked in Beijing will not work for Duke. We don't have players that much better than everybody we will play.