Better team on paper: 2003-2004 Duke (final four) or next year's team?

[jimsumner]

"but JJ was THE best SG overall compared to JS. Better passer and stronger legs for his shot...NO COMPARISON"

Redick a better passer than Scheyer? Seriously?

FWIW, last season Scheyer had 83 assists and 37 turnovers. In 2004 Redick had 58 assists and 70 turnovers. For his Duke career Redick had 306 assists and 296 turnovers.

Scheyer has played a fair amount of PG for Duke over the past two seasons. JJ never played a second of point guard at Duke.

Scheyer will have to go a long way to match Redick's junior and senior years. But he is a better ball-handler and passer right now that Redick ever was at Duke. And again, assuming Scheyer doesn't have a dramatic and inexplicable fall off, the totality of Scheyer's '09 game and Redick's '04 game seems pretty close to me. And that was the original comparison.

[Edouble]

Scheyer has played a fair amount of PG for Duke over the past two seasons. JJ never played a second of point guard at Duke.

No one has ever played PG at Duke, we have players, not positions. Ha ha

[Johnboy]

Ah, I see that I was answering a different question/proposition. In my mind I thought the debate was, "Who would you rather have?" and that meant projecting out several years.

But it's really "Who would you rather have for ONE SEASON," and in that case then sure, I can see how some might pick Junior Scheyer over Sophomore Redick.

Actually, that's not really it, either. The question, as I understand it, is as follows: based on what we knew about our team before the 2003-04 season and what we know about our team this coming season, which appeared to to be stronger team? It's a great question for speculation, because before that season, it appeared that Duhon and Shav were not meeting expectations, Redick was a gunner and Shelden was really good but not great, and we were excited about the heralded freshman Deng, but feared he might be a little raw - really super athletic, but otherwise an unknown quantity to most fans.

This season, on paper, we are deeper, we have a couple guys who look like they may blow up and we have a similar level of experience and athleticism outside the post. I might still go with the 03-04 team on paper, but only because I was pretty confident that Shelden would be a monster for us inside, especially on defense and the boards; I like this year's offensive balance much better than our prospects going into 03-04. For me, it's a close call, and it's been fun to think about - we might be scary good this season, and I think a tough out for anyone. As is often the case, every opponent will be circling their calendar and seeing our game as an opportunity to knock off one of the best teams in basketball.

[CDu]

I'll generally take the team with the better point guard and the better post presence unless that team has an unbelievable disadvantage at the wings. The 2003-2004 team was certainly not lacking in wing talent. The 2008-2009 team is probably better on the wings and is certainly deeper on the wings (although I think depth is overrated as Coach K tends to prefer to play his best 7-8 anyway). But the 2003-2004 team had the better point guard and the better post player and the advantage at the wings for the 2008-2009 teams is (in my opinion) small.

And I certailny don't mean this post to be a disparaging remark about the 2008-2009 team. That 2003-2004 team turned out pretty good. Hopefully this team will be close to as good but with better luck in the tournament.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

03-04 team look to 'fit' together better than the 08-09 team.

On paper this team is just harder to predict their success because we don't know how they are going to fit together. Looking at the 03-04 team it was pretty easy to see how they would operate. You knew who was going to do what and how the team was going to play. I have no clue with this years team.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

I'd take this kid as a soph.

I've never heard the net swish so sweetly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLQ_ULUMSY4

[Ignatius07]

Why are you so confused? In 03-04 we both lost our best player (Dahntay Jones) and added a top-5 prospect (Luol Deng). That is a bigger jolt than losing only our best player (DeMarcus Nelson), and adding a highly-regarded (but certainly not top-5) freshman who plays the position we are deepest at (Elliot Williams). The biggest questions are how much will the rising sophomores have improved and if Zoubek will stay healthy, but chemistry should not be a major issue. The starting line-up will include four players who have been major contributors and played with each other for two years.

[jimsumner]

"Looking at the 03-04 team it was pretty easy to see how they would operate."

In retrospect, yes. But there were some questions at the time. We forget how criticized Duhon was going into that season. He had been picked as pre-season ACC POY going into the 2003 season and then struggled quite a bit, ending as third-team All-ACC. More than a few fans hoped that sophomore Dockery would take over from the incumbent senior at the point. [hmm]

Then there was Randolph, who started like gang busters the year before but saw his PT drop off the shelf, amidst injuries and ineffectiveness. Now he was healthy and surely would take over as PF, with Deng playing the 3 and Ewing coming off the bench as the sixth man. Williams had shown promise over the second half of the 2003 season but would that improvement continue? Would Michael Thompson compete for PT? Would a reserve pout at a lack of PT and, oh, I don't know, transfer at mid-season?

It's easy to see how things fit together in hindsight. But there were some questions going into the season. Just because we now know the answers doesn't mean the questions didn't exist.

[Classof06]

Why are you so confused? In 03-04 we both lost our best player (Dahntay Jones) and added a top-5 prospect (Luol Deng). That is a bigger jolt than losing only our best player (DeMarcus Nelson), and adding a highly-regarded (but certainly not top-5) freshman who plays the position we are deepest at (Elliot Williams). The biggest questions are how much will the rising sophomores have improved and if Zoubek will stay healthy, but chemistry should not be a major issue. The starting line-up will include four players who have been major contributors and played with each other for two years.

It's a little deeper than that, though. The 08-09 team has questions littered across its frontcourt. Will Zoubek be healthy for the entire year? If he is healthy, how effective will he be? How will Czyz and MP1 adapt to the college game?

With the 03-04 team, you had players like Shelden, Shav and Michael Thompson, each of which would be the best big man on the current roster. And even if the 03-04 team lost its best player, they still had a national champion PG who has been there before, not a kid who hasn't gotten out of the first weekend of the tourney. And while EW is a big addition, you're right, it's at a position we're deep at; Luol Deng filled a void that Duke desperately needed; an athletic wing who could shoot from the perimeter and attack the rim, all while being able to defend multiple positions. Dahntay was pretty good in that role but Deng just seemed to complement the surrounding talent much better.

For me, it's hard to call a team that narrowly escaped consecutive first-round tourney exits a strong bet to make the Final Four. It's possible but I wouldn't bet on it. Not until I see that frontcourt.

[jimsumner]

"they still had a national champion PG who has been there before, not a kid who hasn't gotten out of the first weekend of the tourney"

If you're referring to Greg Paulus here, then you are factually incorrect.

FWIW, no one on the 1986 Duke team has ever made it out of the first weekend of the tourny either.

[Ignatius07]

I don't think 08-09 Duke is a strong bet for the Final Four either, I was just making the argument that it is not necessarily difficult to predict how this year's team will play together (see ForeverBlowingBubbles' post).

For the record, Paulus has been out of the first weekend of the tournament, but no, he's not as accomplished as Duhon was. Besides, I don't think Duke gets to the Final Four without Nolan either earning a starting position or at least getting Greg's equal in minutes.

Also, I take issue with saying that Shelden, Shav, or MT would start on this year's team. I would take (a healthy) Zoubek over MT hands down, first of all. Comparing summer 03 expectations of Shav to summer 08 expectations of Zoubek, I think I was higher on Shav, but KNOWING how Shav fared in 03-04 vs. my own predictions for Zoubek in 08-09, I would take Zoubek and the unknown.

[RepoMan]

Redick a better passer than Scheyer? Seriously?

FWIW, last season Scheyer had 83 assists and 37 turnovers. In 2004 Redick had 58 assists and 70 turnovers. For his Duke career Redick had 306 assists and 296 turnovers.

Scheyer has played a fair amount of PG for Duke over the past two seasons. JJ never played a second of point guard at Duke.

Scheyer will have to go a long way to match Redick's junior and senior years. But he is a better ball-handler and passer right now that Redick ever was at Duke.

Jumbo would be so proud.

[houstondukie]

houstondukie, here's another way of looking at it: if you were building a team over the next four years, who would you take?

Sophomore Redick, who you know FOR SURE is destined to be the all-time points leader in the ACC (until Hansblah at least)

OR

Junior Scheyer, who MAY improve, MAY stay the same or MAY actually regress (we don't know)

Come on. To me the answer is obvious. Scheyer may end up better than Redick, but that's a big assumption you're taking. (Putting aside that this is one useless academic exercise...but that's what bball fans do in the summer).

That's like saying which stock would you rather take (knowing what you know now): Google before they launched AdWords, or Cuil, who claims they have 3x Google's number of pages indexed but whose future is uncertain. I'd take Google any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

You have completely misunderstood. I love Scheyer but even if he continues to improve, I don't think he will ever be as great as JJ Redick.

That said, the point I was making is that if we compare JJ Redick the sophomore (who averaged 15 ppg, mainly as a 3 point shooter, and played mediocre defense) to Jon Scheyer of next season, I think Scheyer will be the better player next year.

[rsvman]

I'll generally take the team with the better point guard and the better post presence unless that team has an unbelievable disadvantage at the wings. The 2003-2004 team was certainly not lacking in wing talent. The 2008-2009 team is probably better on the wings and is certainly deeper on the wings (although I think depth is overrated as Coach K tends to prefer to play his best 7-8 anyway). But the 2003-2004 team had the better point guard and the better post player and the advantage at the wings for the 2008-2009 teams is (in my opinion) small.

Spot. On.

[ForeverBlowingBubbles]

I don't think 08-09 Duke is a strong bet for the Final Four either, I was just making the argument that it is not necessarily difficult to predict how this year's team will play together (see ForeverBlowingBubbles' post).

For the record, Paulus has been out of the first weekend of the tournament, but no, he's not as accomplished as Duhon was. Besides, I don't think Duke gets to the Final Four without Nolan either earning a starting position or at least getting Greg's equal in minutes.

Also, I take issue with saying that Shelden, Shav, or MT would start on this year's team. I would take (a healthy) Zoubek over MT hands down, first of all. Comparing summer 03 expectations of Shav to summer 08 expectations of Zoubek, I think I was higher on Shav, but KNOWING how Shav fared in 03-04 vs. my own predictions for Zoubek in 08-09, I would take Zoubek and the unknown.

I understand what your saying in your last post and this one.

I still think there are a lot more questions about this years team.
Paulus could improve drastically. He could play worse than last year and give up his starting spot.
Nolan could be legitimately good enough to end up starting at PG.
E-Will could be too good to keep off the court. Maybe even Pocious.
Will Gerald or Kyle or both step up and consistently be 'the man'?
Will Lance average as many rebounds per minute as our 6'1 shooting guard did last year? Will Miles take some minutes? Has Zoubek learned to hold on to a basketball? Can anyone on our team slow down Hansbrough? Can our frontcourt stop any dominant big man? Who's going to make up for Nelsons' 6 rebounds per game? Are any of these questions relevant? Did the 04 team have bigger Q marks?

Will we keep the same style of play? How many will K fit in the rotation?


Just a few q's right off the top of my head.

[Bluedog]

For the record, Paulus has been out of the first weekend of the tournament, but no, he's not as accomplished as Duhon was. Besides, I don't think Duke gets to the Final Four without Nolan either earning a starting position or at least getting Greg's equal in minutes.

On a kind of unrelated note, but I didn't want to start a new thread. I just noticed that Paulus was voted as the Gatorade Player of the Year for all sports while in high school. The other recipients? LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Greg Oden, and Kevin Love. Quite elite company. This is not meant to bash Paulus as he clearly hasn't lived up to the hype of those others. I personally think Paulus has taken far too much unfair criticism - he works damn hard, is a fierce competitor, and a good shooter and passer. Yes, his quickness, speed, dribbling skills could be even better, but he's one of my fav on the teams, and one just has to watch the game in Chapel Hill last year to see what he can do. I just thought it was interesting who were the other players on the list. An important note though: Paulus was listed for football. I'd like to see Greg and Nolan split the duties, with Greg taking the minutes in crunch time, but being fresh since Nolan has also played significantly.

[Edouble]

The question, as I understand it, is as follows: based on what we knew about our team before the 2003-04 season and what we know about our team this coming season, which appeared to to be stronger team?

Is that the question... because I'm not sure that it is. Is seems to have turned into that, but the original question was asking us to compare this year's team on paper to the last Duke team to go to the Final Four. There was never any caveat saying that we should compare our perspectives of the 2003-04 team at this time of the year to our perspective of this year's current team.

[CameronCrazy'11]

Is that the question... because I'm not sure that it is. Is seems to have turned into that, but the original question was asking us to compare this year's team on paper to the last Duke team to go to the Final Four. There was never any caveat saying that we should compare our perspectives of the 2003-04 team at this time of the year to our perspective of this year's current team.

I read it that way too.

[Papa John]

Is that the question... because I'm not sure that it is. Is seems to have turned into that, but the original question was asking us to compare this year's team on paper to the last Duke team to go to the Final Four. There was never any caveat saying that we should compare our perspectives of the 2003-04 team at this time of the year to our perspective of this year's current team.

But the way I see it, you can only accomplish that comparison by speculating where this team will be at year's end (and thereby comparing your projection to the actuals of 2003-04) or to look at what you thought about the 2003-04 team going into that season compared to what you think about this team, based on the immediately preceding season's performance... Either way, it's all just fun speculation, of course...

Now, having said all that, I agree with CDu and have to go with the team that has the strong PG and established post presence, which would clearly be 2003-04... Of course, I will continue to optimistically hope that Gerald continues his development into a dominant talent ala Grant Hill and that Kyle blossoms into a gritty warrior with an uncanny ability to not let his team lose ala Laettner... Wouldn't that be nice?