Put the kayak on the rack, headed to the river before it gets hot as blazes. Upper ‘60’s now, nice. Just need Sunrise.
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Put the kayak on the rack, headed to the river before it gets hot as blazes. Upper ‘60’s now, nice. Just need Sunrise.
It is Zeptember and the Christmas stuff is out.
They couldn’t wait until Rocktober?
*Trying not to get too PPB but this is what happens when you threaten to tariff stuff. And they’ve got to put it somewhere.
So, my parents went on a cruise to Newfoundland...
Dad passed out twice this am. Paramedics did an EKG and checked his vitals. Everything checked out normal.
Still very scary to get a call from a crying mother right when it happened.
I had a similar cruise to Newfoundland (on the way to Northern Europe) courtesy of Uncle Sam’s Yacht Club. Played tag with a hurricane up the East coast of the USA, leaving ports early to try to stay ahead of it. Somewhere in my attic are a bunch of pictures of a Guided Missile Cruiser acting like a submarine occasionally. Fun times. It was interesting to see which of the newbie sailors could throw up the most and farthest.
Not sure how my statements were partisan? They stake no position on the merits of tariffs and whether we should or should not be applying them.
An important thing for many of these Christmas items is not just when you order and are billed* but when and from where the goods are delivered or at least hit our shores. Customs duties/tariffs are due at that point(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Custom..._United_States). I didn't work with retailers, I have worked for manufacturers that supplied to distributors to retail and worked with other industry, some that were particularly seasonal. If ordering in advance of need can be balanced against tariff costs for materials, we would do it. But that obviously had to be weighed against the carrying cost of that inventory, the ability of suppliers to deliver before the tariff deadline, as well as others risks. If we could save money, we would. If shipping early and our customers would allow it, we would. Often times that depended upon the triggering mechanism for how the customer paid us. One large customer allowed us to pack their warehouse with materials, but they were not billed and obligated to pay(Net 30) until they actually picked the material so that it could be used in their process. "Okay, you'll let me store these goods in your warehouse which I've looked at and have minimal issues with regards to the safekeeping of my goods?"+ So, why not optimize truck and rail quantities, setup times on manufacturing processes, our own warehousing costs, etc.? Balanced with the risks of shrinkage, spoilage, changes in materials costs, etc. Simple b-school/supply chain stuff.
What did I observe today? A retailer who is putting out goods nearly 3 months in advance of when I expect they would normally sell them. I also saw some nice optimization of footprint. Some things that were likely domestically supplied(foodstuffs such as peanuts) had a reduced footprint. That says to me a couple things:
1) the carrying cost of that Christmas inventory is really low(likely facilitated by low interest rates**) relative to the gross margins on those items and
2) getting those Christmas items here even earlier than the now normal mid-October time frame that many of us consumers lament is of economic benefit to someone in the supply chain.
So, I'm not sure how, "this is what happens when you threaten to tariff stuff. And they’ve got to put it somewhere." is partisan? Maybe the use of threaten was wrong? I should have said this is when happens when you tariff stuff that did not have tariffs before or increase tariffs on items that already had them. Ultimately, all I saw from my vantage point was the supply chain reacting to a potential change in costs. You state, "Its display now is just the commercialization of the season." I agree wholeheartedly!
*Depends on how you are paying the bill also. Are you making upfront payment? Paying for raw materials in advance? Paying in full when it lands on US shores but generally in advance of your ability to see them? I never got too involved in those contract negotiations. But they were often long and complicated.
+ This practice did cause me to have to travel to Cape Girardeau, Missouri in a small 6 passenger commercial plane during the winter of '97. During a storm. One of the scariest flights of my life. Luckily, the error was on their part, not ours, as they did not follow the agreed to specifications for storage.
**Wait, did I just stake out another PPB position?
Dad's doing ok for now. They kept him at the hospital overnight and are keeping him again tonight. His blood pressure dropped again last night and they aren't sure why. Thanks to everyone for the prayers and good vibes!
Where have I been? In a funk. And I don't really feel like explaining why. At least not today.