"My decision to go to Duke wasn't a surprise to people who really knew me because I was always a Duke fan growing up," -Brandon Ingram
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Garrison Brooks says he will play at ‘Mississippi State, where his father is a coach.
https://www.wralsportsfan.com/brooks...year/19629427/
Theo John is very intriguing to me. Love the experience he brings as a three year starter. His 1.8 blocked shots per game over the last three years is impressive. Tough defender. As far as realistic transfer big options out there, he's right there at the top of my list.
I'm worried about his lack of rebounding. How are his advanced stats?
He appears to be a strong offensive rebounder. As a soph he was the 6th best at OReb rate in the Big East. He was 7th best in the BE as a junior. Last season he slipped to be only 22nd best in the conference... but there appears to be ample evidence that he can grab some ORebs. His DReb stats have always been a shade worse than his OReb stats. Not awful, but not as good.
To compare him to some Duke players, this past year he was a better OReb than Hurt or Brakefield but worse than both of them at DRebs.
As you know, he's an outstanding shot blocker, 97th in the nation at block rate this past season. He was 17th and 39th in the country at shot block rate as a soph and junior. Really, his soph season was his best season from an advanced stat standpoint.
Jason is perhaps being a bit generous. In 2020-21, John's DR% was worse than Wendell Moore's. And the Big East only has 22 starting bigs, so 22nd in OR% isn't so hot.
Overall, his senior year advanced stats were similar to but not as good as Javin DeLaurier's senior year stats:
Other than blocked shots (in which John has been very good) his career advanced stats are again similar to DeLaurier's and also Chase Jeter's, but not really as good as either:Code:Player pts p40 pf p40 oRtg dRtg PER eFG FTR OR% DR% asst% TO% stl% blk% usg
Theo John '21 12.1 4.3 109.7 101.1 16.6 58.3 52.9 7.3 14.3 9.4 22.5 1.4 6.0 16.1
Javin DeLaurier '20 10.6 6.8 113.8 88.2 17.1 56.1 52.7 10.1 19.0 6.2 19.0 2.5 6.0 13.2
Code:pts p40 pf p40 oRtg dRtg PER eFG FTR OR% DR% asst% TO% stl% blk% usg
Theo John career 11.4 6.1 107.6 98.9 15.7 57.8 60.1 9.2 15.8 6.3 20.8 1.2 8.4 15.4
Chase Jeter career 14.4 5.8 111.2 98.9 16.9 56.4 62.7 9.7 18.9 5.3 16.0 1.1 3.4 18.6
Javin DeLaurier career 10.1 6.9 119.2 90.4 17.8 66.2 56.0 12.1 17.8 5.0 22.5 2.8 6.2 11.7
The stats Kedsy presented are rate stats. So they take pace out of the equation as they are on a per-possession basis. And they show John to be pretty much exactly what we are looking for: a solid backup big with elite shotblocking ability. He's a mediocre rebounder for his career (a bit above average his sophomore and junior years but below average this past year) but a really good shotblocker. Like, career block% better than Shelden Williams good. Ideally, he's a fringe starter or backup on a really good team. But you know he can give you solid minutes against major competition.
With Coleman, there is a big unknown. As has been said numerous times, he had good rate stats but they were accumulated almost exclusively in short stints in blowouts. So it's hard to say if that will translate to more minutes or to more competitive games.
So there is risk either way: passing on John puts us at the risk of being undermanned at the frontcourt spot (especially if there is an injury). Picking up John puts us at risk of losing Coleman for the 2022-23 season.
My preference is probably to maximize our chances this season. Get the more known quantity. Then, work hard to try to keep Coleman invested. If they can get Coleman regularly into games, even in a 5-10 minute role, that can help, as can doing your best to assure Coleman that he has a role as an upperclassman. And heck, if Coleman beats out John (as he did Tapé this year), then it's a moot point anyway. But I'd hate to pass on a fringe starter/solid backup for a title contending team from fear of maybe hurting a future team that we have no idea the makeup.
I believe Coleman's defense was the reason Coach K used him for what few minutes he did get. If the young man can develop an offensive game, I believe he'll be real good by his junior or senior year. I love his toughness. He reminds me of Nate James in that regard but not so much on the offensive side. I would hate to see Henry leave the Duke program because he doesn't get playing time. I would love to see him improve over the offseason to where he can get 10 or more mpg. I see us losing after this coming season; Banchero, Williams and Griffin to the NBA and if Wendell reaches his potential this season, we might lose him as well. I don't expect Roach or Keels to leave for the NBA but you can't predict transfers.
I have a solution for you: Pronounce his last name like he's French. That gets you to Bac-Os, which were horrible imitation bacon bits sold by Betty Crocker in the '70s - an absolute mockery of your favorite food. Entirely artificial, it turns out that Bac-Os were discontinued because it was discovered that one of those artificial ingredients was also a carcinogen, which should remind you of the school he's from.
Problem solved.
Mine either! (Just ask my wife )
I know Coleman guarded the opposing 5 in short intervals last season and sparingly...but I can see relying on him to do so on a more regular basis when Mark isnt in. I know Banchero is capable of guarding the 5, but it could be a case where they want to keep Banchero out of the post on defense to maximize his offensive energy. John gives us that backup body to bring in and bang when Mark needs a rest. And Coleman can be used to give rest to the 3/4 spot. Most importantly for me, if we're talking in terms of Coleman's progression is, John offers someone in practice that will improve his game, his strength. I mean lets be honest, that isnt going to happen against Worthington or Bates Jones.
But I do understand the reservation about it causing Coleman to leave. I dont want to see that either as he brings a tremendous energy to the floor. Maybe we're assuming too much here in terms of Coleman transferring, maybe he would welcome the challenge.