2018-19 Regular season picking contest (degenerate gamblers rejoice!!)

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11-20-2018, 02:45 PM
ChillinDuke

Quote:

Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

I took Duke even at -10.5 for these exact reasons. Playing the #8 team in the country on a neutral court and Vegas gives us 10.5 points? That's saying a lot about the confidence in Duke. I think Auburn gets intimidated 3/4 of the way through the first half and wilts under the big lights.

Objectively, I'd take the 10.5 and go with Auburn.

But I agree, LHL, it's hard to bet against Duke in this one.

I was gonna pick Duke at -8 or so. Now at 10.5. Woof. I may still pick us. Which says a lot.

- Chillin
11-20-2018, 03:54 PM
BandAlum83

Quote:

Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

Duke opens at -10.5 on Auburn. Cha-ching.

I took Duke and the under (168.5)

89-78 gets me the double!

I'll predict 92-71 Duke with the win.
11-20-2018, 04:18 PM
ChillinDuke

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

Objectively, I'd take the 10.5 and go with Auburn.

But I agree, LHL, it's hard to bet against Duke in this one.

I was gonna pick Duke at -8 or so. Now at 10.5. Woof. I may still pick us. Which says a lot.

- Chillin

Still at 10.5.

I'm struggling to pull the trigger. Every objective part of me thinks it makes no sense to take Duke, although my gut says Duke covers.

- Chillin
11-20-2018, 04:26 PM
brlftz

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

So, umm, doesn't the above statement almost exactly describe the Kentucky game? I guess Kentucky wasn't as experienced in the backcourt, but they sure were in the frontcourt. Auburn simply does not have NBA kind of talent on their team. And while they are used to being the most versatile and athletic team on the floor, I suspect they will be overwhelmed when they realize Duke is far more athletic and versatile than they are.

If an experienced and athletic team can keep it close late in the game, that's what I'm calling game pressure. I wouldn't say we faced a whole lot of game pressure being up by 30+ in the second half.
11-20-2018, 04:28 PM
Green Wave Dukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

Still at 10.5.

I'm struggling to pull the trigger. Every objective part of me thinks it makes no sense to take Duke, although my gut says Duke covers.

- Chillin

I went with my gut as soon as someone alerted us the line was out. I’ll just tell ya, gonna keep taking the Blue Devils until they don’t cover. Even though i agree, it’s too many points and against sound logic. But hey, it’s only points, right?
11-20-2018, 05:40 PM
JasonEvans

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green Wave Dukie

I went with my gut as soon as someone alerted us the line was out. I’ll just tell ya, gonna keep taking the Blue Devils until they don’t cover. Even though i agree, it’s too many points and against sound logic. But hey, it’s only points, right?

We failed to cover against Army.

By the way, some Vegas casinos now have the line at 11.
11-20-2018, 07:09 PM
ChillinDuke

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

We failed to cover against Army.

By the way, some Vegas casinos now have the line at 11.

I couldn't take it. I went with Auburn and the under.

If you removed the names and the context and the hype from this matchup, #10 vs #1 on a neutral floor at +11 and o/u 170?! Those numbers would seem frankly insane.

An 11 point spread for a 9 point disparity in KP is craaaaaaaaazy rare. And I've got two years worth of Degenerate Data to prove it.

- Chillin
11-20-2018, 07:28 PM
Troublemaker

One thing I'll say is that it doesn't make much sense to me to bet both Duke AND the over. We all know that if Duke gets a lead, we're going to see stallball, AND if Duke has a big enough lead, we'll even see deep bench subs. Those two things completely neuter scoring. If you had the over against SDSU, you got a taste of what that's like. The game was sailing over for awhile but then the final 5 minutes or so when Duke called off the dogs got the game to go under, and by more than 1 possession, IIRC. It's either Duke OR under but not both, imo.

Now that I've posted that, watch Duke cover and go over, haha.
11-20-2018, 08:55 PM
ChillinDuke

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

One thing I'll say is that it doesn't make much sense to me to bet both Duke AND the over. We all know that if Duke gets a lead, we're going to see stallball, AND if Duke has a big enough lead, we'll even see deep bench subs. Those two things completely neuter scoring. If you had the over against SDSU, you got a taste of what that's like. The game was sailing over for awhile but then the final 5 minutes or so when Duke called off the dogs got the game to go under, and by more than 1 possession, IIRC. It's either Duke OR under but not both, imo.

Now that I've posted that, watch Duke cover and go over, haha.

Over looks tough at this point. Would have to be a monster 2nd half. But if anyone can do it it's Auburn bombing threes.

- Chillin
11-21-2018, 10:42 AM
ChillinDuke

Duke opens at -7.5 tonight against Gonzaga. Another line that's frankly too big, but nowhere near the order of magnitude of -11.

KP #1 vs #6 on a neutral court should be a pick 'em. Or close to it. +/- 2, max, I'd expect. Maybe you stretch to +/- 3 in certain cases. -7.5 is another WOW number.

165 is also pretty wow on the o/u.

Basically, tonight is the same story they tried with Auburn, just a little less insane. For now...

- Chillin
11-21-2018, 11:55 AM
left_hook_lacey

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

Duke opens at -7.5 tonight against Gonzaga. Another line that's frankly too big, but nowhere near the order of magnitude of -11.

KP #1 vs #6 on a neutral court should be a pick 'em. Or close to it. +/- 2, max, I'd expect. Maybe you stretch to +/- 3 in certain cases. -7.5 is another WOW number.

165 is also pretty wow on the o/u.

Basically, tonight is the same story they tried with Auburn, just a little less insane. For now...

- Chillin

I'm picking Duke to cover, and picking the under. I'm a mad man.

A fool and his money...

Update: Down to -7 Duke now.
11-21-2018, 01:45 PM
jhmoss1812

Just 16 picks (8 on the spread and 8 on the O/U) for +3000 today.

I'm trying to bet on every spread and O/U this season just to gauge how well I would do if I started betting for real.

46-36-2 for far (23-20 for +500 on spread and 23-16-2 for +90 on O/U)
11-21-2018, 04:19 PM
ChillinDuke

I waited patiently and just jumped at the under at 168.

If I had guts (spoiler alert: I don't), I'd take Gonzaga and the points as my other bet.

Didn't love any of the other ACC lines. I kicked around GTech and the spread but dropped it after further deliberation.

- Chillin

PS - Is BandAlum out after falling in the hole over 5000 simoleans?
11-22-2018, 03:29 PM
Fish80

I will never learn. I took UVA and the over at 124.
11-22-2018, 09:54 PM
jhmoss1812

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish80

I will never learn. I took UVA and the over at 124.

Good call on the over. 66 + 59 = 125
11-23-2018, 09:09 AM
NYBri

Am I the first one to be out? :cool:
11-25-2018, 10:54 AM
Fish80

Why don’t they list the Florida State - Villanova game? Or the Miami game?
11-25-2018, 11:24 AM
jhmoss1812

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fish80

Why don’t they list the Florida State - Villanova game? Or the Miami game?

Both are now listed. It is frustrating that they aren't listed all at the same time though.
11-26-2018, 08:15 AM
Troublemaker

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYBri

Am I the first one to be out? :cool:

I think BandAlum got you beat there. You win some, you lose some, eh? Even though this competition didn't go well for you, NYBri, you still own two prestigious Green Jackets from winning two ACC Conference Degenerate titles. It's really the Masters event of our degenerate tour. Preconference and NCAA tournament schedules can vary wildly from year to year, but the ACC Conference slate is close enough to the same year after year, kind of like how Augusta might modify the greens a bit but it's still The Masters.

I'm coming for my own Green Jacket starting in about a month, NYBri. You will not 3-peat.

P.S. Good calls on the Auburn game, Chillin'. I wasn't able to pull the trigger myself but leaned that way.

https://ae01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1tMgII...y-baseball.jpg
11-28-2018, 04:02 AM
left_hook_lacey

1 Attachment(s)

I can't get ahead...or behind. Just slowly getting eaten by the vig. They call me even Steven.

Attachment 8849
11-28-2018, 01:10 PM
Troublemaker

What a bloodbath our league experienced last night (including me).

Better luck tonight!
11-28-2018, 04:13 PM
Fish80

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

What a bloodbath our league experienced last night (including me).

Better luck tonight!

I too took a bath. I’m done, -5150. 🙃

Good luck to all still in it.
11-28-2018, 04:34 PM
Green Wave Dukie

Misery Loves Company

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

What a bloodbath our league experienced last night (including me).

Better luck tonight!

Glad I was not alone. In my state of depression last night (Picked mostly losers and put 500 on them; and picked WCU to cover against Wake Forest, and put 200 on that one) I went in at 500 against the spread on the challenge games for tonight. Fear I might soon be in the red, headed toward the dreaded -5,000 mark.
12-01-2018, 11:25 PM
Troublemaker

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

It is back! Time for our college hoops picking contest! As always, you go to Covers.com to make your picks. Details on signing up is right here. The Password to enter the group is GoDuke.

https://contests.covers.com/OfficePo...0-a98f00deda09
Contest Name: DBR ACC Hoops contest (pre-conference season)
Access Password: GoDuke

As in past years, you make wagers of between 100 and 500 units and can bet on both the line as well as the over/under. YOU MAY ONLY PICK GAMES INVOLVING ACC TEAMS!! So, if you pick the Kansas-MSU game, you will automatically lose (and if you win you will have to make enough wagers to lose that amount x2, which is a lot harder than it looks). Everyone starts at 0 dollars and you can keep on betting until you get to -5000 in losses. Once you hit -5000, you are done and are out of the contest.

We will keep this contest going through the end of the year and then start a new contest for the meat of the ACC conference season. Consider this the non-conference contest even though there will be a few conference games contested.

Post in this thread if you have any questions.

-Jason "I'm sure NYBri will win again. He's a freaking savant at this" Evans

Jason, this contest doesn't end until Jan 7th? Are you sure you don't want to end it before the ACC season starts and then begin anew with a fresh contest for conference games? Or maybe that wasn't an option?

As always, thanks for running this contest, my friend!
12-02-2018, 09:35 AM
JasonEvans

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Jason, this contest doesn't end until Jan 7th? Are you sure you don't want to end it before the ACC season starts and then begin anew with a fresh contest for conference games? Or maybe that wasn't an option?

As always, thanks for running this contest, my friend!

I just put a date on it that ensured we would capture all pre-ACC season games. We will start a new one, for sure, when ACC season rolls around.
12-02-2018, 09:40 AM
jhmoss1812

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I just put a date on it that ensured we would capture all pre-ACC season games. We will start a new one, for sure, when ACC season rolls around.

I know that UVA plays FSU on 1/5 though
12-02-2018, 09:48 AM
CameronBlue

Well this little slow roll to Hell is over for me. What an utterly stupid contest. What's the startup date for the next one?
12-02-2018, 09:51 AM
JasonEvans

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhmoss1812

I know that UVA plays FSU on 1/5 though

Yup, and we will have the ACC contest started by then.
12-02-2018, 10:03 AM
jhmoss1812

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Yup, and we will have the ACC contest started by then.

Gotcha. Does that mean I can pick the UVA-FSU game for the current contest as well?
12-02-2018, 02:32 PM
JasonEvans

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhmoss1812

Gotcha. Does that mean I can pick the UVA-FSU game for the current contest as well?

I will likely I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. down the current contest when we start the ACC one. One contest at a time. Make sense?
12-02-2018, 02:34 PM
JasonEvans

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I will likely I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. down the current contest when we start the ACC one. One contest at a time. Make sense?

Shut down. The “I” and the “U” are next to each other and created a nasty typo error when I wrote “shut.”
12-02-2018, 03:36 PM
devildeac

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I will likely I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. down the current contest when we start the ACC one. One contest at a time. Make sense?

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Shut down. The “I” and the “U” are next to each other and created a nasty typo error when I wrote “shut.”

Yeah, right Jason :rolleyes:. Trying to circumvent the filter again. Shameful.

;)
12-02-2018, 08:02 PM
jhmoss1812

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I will likely I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. down the current contest when we start the ACC one. One contest at a time. Make sense?

Makes sense. I promise I won't ask any more questions LOL
12-03-2018, 06:48 AM
Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

Quote:

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I will likely I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. down the current contest when we start the ACC one. One contest at a time. Make sense?

This is shameful. I am contacting a mod.
12-05-2018, 06:05 PM
Green Wave Dukie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green Wave Dukie

Since Illinois beat the spread last night, I've got 400 points to try to return to the field. So, in an attempt to get out of jail as quickly as possible, I'm not sitting around trying to roll doubles, I've put the 400 on Texas A&M +3 over Washington. Hopefully I have a one night sentence in the slammer. (and I'm impatiently looking for the line on tonight's game vs Auburn)

Just to clean this one up, for the record, back on November 20th Washington beat Texas A&M 71-67, so I 'won' by losing with Texas A&M +3. So, I am officially out of Jason's Jail.

Coming after you Trouble!
12-09-2018, 09:25 AM
Troublemaker

Quote:

Originally Posted by Green Wave Dukie

Coming after you Trouble!

You got me! Congrats on moving into 1st place, GWD! It's time for me to become the hunter again.

Really, really great job by jhmoss, too. Frankly, 58% on that volume of picks is more impressive than anything I've done.
12-09-2018, 10:26 AM
jhmoss1812

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

You got me! Congrats on moving into 1st place, GWD! It's time for me to become the hunter again.

Really, really great job by jhmoss, too. Frankly, 58% on that volume of picks is more impressive than anything I've done.

Thanks Trouble but I don't know about that. I've debated increasing my bet size (I was betting irregularly earlier in the contest) but I'm really just interested in seeing what my percentage on picks would be over the course of the season. Thus, I'm sticking to $100 bets only. I'm afraid that if I start betting more, I'll be out of the contest LOL.
12-23-2018, 08:38 AM
Troublemaker

Quote:

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

It's time for me to become the hunter again.

And the hunt is over. Back in 1st!

The cream always rises, folks :-)
12-23-2018, 08:42 AM
Troublemaker

Quote:

Originally Posted by jhmoss1812

Thanks Trouble but I don't know about that. I've debated increasing my bet size (I was betting irregularly earlier in the contest) but I'm really just interested in seeing what my percentage on picks would be over the course of the season. Thus, I'm sticking to $100 bets only. I'm afraid that if I start betting more, I'll be out of the contest LOL.

I completely understand, jh. If I were doing what you were doing, I'd be deathly afraid that as soon as I up my bet size, the losing streak would immediately start.

Terrific season from you, no matter what happens.
12-28-2018, 03:51 PM
rasputin

Having done so poorly in the pre-conference contest, I'm eager for the conference season contest to start.

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