Originally Posted by
CDu
First, Johnson wasn’t a top-10 recruit. He was #11, about where Matthew Hurt was (#12). The hope was that Johnson would play like a top-5 or top-10 recruit, but he wasn’t either of those things. So in hindsight, expecting him to be what guys like Bagley, Carey, Okafor, etc., were was a mistake on our part. I would argue that his per-minute production was comparable to Carey’s (fewer points and rebounds, similar blocks, but more assists and steals and a far better A/TO ratio). I don’t think anyone would say that Carey wasn’t really good when he was on the court.
Second, I think you are guilty of letting the quitting or preseason expectations bias your assessment here, as Johnson’s on-court performance was better than most of those guys. Unquestionably better than Duval, Jackson, Reddish, Steward, Stanley, Trent, Giles, Rivers, Ingram, Tatum, and Maggette; slightly better than Winslow; better even than Barrett and Bagley, though those guys deserve credit for being way more consistent; in line with Parker, Carter, Carey; not as good as Zion; hard to compare with Jones and Irving, who were really good but so different as players.
For some reason (likely the frustration with how this season played out and Johnson’s contribution to that, likely also because I didn’t spell it out enough given how controversial Johnson was), folks have entirely missed my point. To bring it back for clarity: Kedsy mentioned AJ Griffin’s drop in recruiting rankings this year and compared it to Johnson’s drop last year as a point of concern. My point was that we shouldn’t necessarily be concerned about Griffin’s drop, because what made Johnson a huge disappointment wasn’t the talent. It was that he quit on the team. But that when he was on the court, his overall play was really good. I am not going to post the per-100-possession numbers for all of those guys because that is too time-consuming. But Johnson’s were better than most of those guys’ numbers. I illustrated it with Winslow (RSCI #12). Again, not saying that Johnson wound up with a comparable season to Winslow, just that - when he was actually on the floor -he was more productive. Worth noting that Winslow, too, was not exactly consistent (nor were almost all of the guys on that list. He threw up a bunch of early/midseason duds before really coming on down the stretch. I would venture that Johnson’s comparable segment of the season was way better than Winslow’s. The issue, again, wasn’t talent and ability to produce. It was something else, like maybe an uncoachability or a lack of buying in type of thing. But that almost certainly isn’t what caused the drop in RSCI.
So, I will say again, my point was never to say that Johnson had as good a season overall as our typical one-and-dones. Just that he was really good in the limited time when he did play. He wasn’t available nearly enough. if Griffin comes in and puts up per-100 numbers like Johnson does, we should be thrilled. Because (for a variety of reasons ultimately stemming from the uniqueness of this year’s and Johnson’s situation) I don’t think we will have to deal with Griffin quitting on the team. So back to my ultimate point, I don’t think the drop in Griffin’s RSCI should be viewed as a huge concern in light of the Jalen Johnson experience, because if Griffin is as productive as Johnson was per-possession and plays the whole season, I think we will be thrilled with that.