Paolo and Mark are gonna be absolute beasts down low next year.
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Coaching staff would be smart to find another guard. Foul trouble and injuries are always a possibility. It is called common sense. Recruiting pundits think Keels goes elsewhere. Moore Roach and Steward should improve but insurance policy is needed. Europe, Australia, grad transfers and the guy withdrawing from Creighton. Someone is needed as a good backup.If Goldwire returns then it is possible to not have that additional guard.
Let's assume, for the moment, that Mark Williams, Paolo Banchero, and AJ Griffin occupy three starter, big minute spots in our rotation. Let's further assume that Jeremy Roach, DJ Steward, and Wendell Moore are on the team, but both Jordan Goldwire and Trevor Keels are elsewhere. Under those circumstances, IF we can find another guard, there are several possibilities:
(a) the new guard is good enough to start and two of Roach, Steward, and Moore will come off the bench;
(b) the new guard is a developmental type of the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency variety, and other than in blowouts will only play in case of foul trouble and/or injury; or
(c) the new guard is willing to be the 7th or 8th man in our rotation;
My guess is that an (a) guard will be awfully hard to find at this point in the recruiting cycle, and that it will be pretty difficult to come up with a (c) guy who's talented enough to meaningfully contribute. That leaves us with (b), which I believe will be a good thing to have, but who very likely will not have a significant impact on our success or failure next season (think Jordan Goldwire as a freshman, 60 total minutes after January 1, almost entirely in blowouts).
Maybe the new one-time transfer rule, if it actually happens, will allow us to attract an (a) guard. I wouldn't count on it. And I'm not even sure if I'd root for it, as it would be nice to see Jeremy and DJ and Wendell get every chance to develop and succeed.
I don’t know why Goldwire would leave. Certainly not to transfer or declare for he draft. Maybe he’s in a hurry to move on from being a leader and a key contributor at Duke?? Unless someone in the know has some intel otherwise, I assume Goldwire will be back. Tape may want to try to get more PT somewhere else , if rules allow, but finishing up a graduate degree at Duke isn’t a bad option for a Columbia grad. If he wanted to find out what his NBA prospects are, I think he got his answer. He can add Vrank level depth at Duke next year if he comes back. Not a bad career move if he’s interested in a post-college basketball career in media, coaching, sport’s management, etc.
Baker might be the biggest transfer threat but it’s still not clear to me that he can transfer and still get a pandemic do-over year like he can at Duke. Baker has made progress. He made some heady plays on defense this year and he still has 2 years to put it all together. He’s probably not going to be in Duke’s top 7 but he could a difference maker in some games and seems to love Duke so hope to see him back.
There are some good reasons for Hurt to come back but improving his draft stock probably isn’t one of them. Duke will certainly be stacked in the post if he does though. I expect Matt to declare and try to carve out a roll in the NBA. He’s not Bird but his ability to shoot the rock from anywhere on the court is real.
I mean, the 2001 team had just 2 guards. The 2004 team had just 3 (and just one PG). The 2011 team dominated most of the season with just 3, and one of those was freshman Tyler Thornton. The 1998 and 1999 teams had just 3 and 2, respectively. The 2015 team had just 3 once Sulaimon was kicked off. The 2018 team had just 3 (and one of those was a freshman Jordan Goldwire, and the 2019 team had just 2 (and one was sophomore Jordan Goldwire. The 2010 team had just 2 plus a non-ballhandling freshman wing who wasn’t really ready and played fairly sparingly.
Having 3-4 true guards isn’t critical to having a Final Four contender. I would argue it isn’t even a regular thing for our Finsl Four caliber teams over the last 20-25 years. If you have sufficient ballhandlers at multiple positions, then having a deep group of true guards isn’t critical.
Obviously having more capable guards is a good thing. But it isn’t essential. In other words, if we go into next year with “just” the two sophomore guards and Moore and Griffin as the options as primary ballhandlers, that shouldn’t be inherently cause for alarm.
I would certainly like to get another guard, especially one with multiple years of eligibility though, more for the future years as Kedsy notes. From a program continuity perspective, it isn’t ideal to have all of your recruits from a class gone after 1-2 years.
The reason folks think Goldwire is leaving is because he posted an IG (or Twitter) post about the Louisville game being his last game in Cameron. Obviously not a guarantee that he is gone, but it certainly gives an idea where his head is at the moment.
I don’t want to get too deep into transfer speculation, but I would say that Baker doesn’t seem to me like the biggest transfer risk at Duke.
I really hope Goldwire comes back. I have no idea what is going on in his life so I am not one to judge, but it seems like a no-brainer to me. He is not going to make a lot of money playing basketball, and I'm guessing that if he has a job lined up, it can be deferred. Though I would have stayed in college forever, there are many who are ready to move on to other things and I completely respect that decision - he doesn't have to ask me or any of us for permission.
That being said, he would really fill out the roster nicely next year. Obviously, I would love to have Keels, but having this year's guard rotation with another year of maturity and development works well with the riches we have up front. That being said, I would really like to bring in another guard. It doesn't have to be a star. In some ways I would almost rather it not be a star - I would like to have a continuity guy. We were very lucky with Goldwire - he was one of the lowest ranked scholarship players we have brought in and he developed into a valuable contributor - credit first and foremost to his hard work, and also to the coaching staff.
I wouldn't count on a repeat of Goldwire's development. I would like someone a notch above him who can develop into the player he is now, without it being as steep of a growth curve. Tell this player that his minutes might be minimal next year if Goldwire comes back, but look at how things developed for Goldwire and the same could happen to him. I know that most HS kids think that they are destined for the NBA, but I'm guessing that there are also plenty of more realistic players out there who realize that multi-million dollar basketball contracts are not in their future, and being a part of the brotherhood could pay off big time for them in whatever line of work they choose.
Why is no one considering the continued development of the #30 kid, Michael Somethingorother? I hear he's had good coaching all his life! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/i...es/devil9f.gif
2001? Nate James started the entire regular season alongside Jason Williams. I have to consider him a guard, as were Williams, Duhon and Andre Buckner.
2004? Chris Duhon, Daniel Ewing, J.J. Redick and Sean Dockery.
2011? Nolan Smith, Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Tyler Thornton and Irving for 11 games.
2015? T. Jones, Cook, Allen, M. Jones.
2018? Duval, Allen, Goldwire, O'Connell, Trent (rarely)
2019-Jones, Reddish, Goldwire, O'Connell.
A lot of these guys were 2/3s, as is Moore. But if we're going to count Moore as a guard, then we have to count Nate James, Matt Jones, Alex O'Connell, et. al. as guards.
1998 and 1999 are the closest analogs to what MIGHT happen next season if we assume that Moore can fill the Chris Carrawell role and play the point when and if necessary. But I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Roach and Steward aren't the only pure guards on the team.
These three-guards-on-the-roster lineups only work if you've got one or two guys who can go 35 minutes per game on a regular basis and nobody gets injured or ill for an extended period. That's really rolling the dice.
2015. Cook, T. Jones, Allen, M. Jones
My hope for Goldwire is that we have misinterpreted what he meant by playing with the Mob for the last time. Could that be a nickname the bench players had for themselves when he started and the post was a nod to Buckmire and the walk-ons? If he had said playing for the last time in Cameron with the Brotherhood it would have been more certain. I hope he comes back because I love the story of his development.
Nate James was not a guard, he was a wing. And Buckner was essentially a walk-on who barely played.
Forgot Dock somehow in 04.
Reddish was not a guard, and O’Connell was iffy.
Matt Jones was not a guard, he was a wing.
Dawkins was not a guard, he was a wing.
Trent was not a guard, he was a wing/forward.
1998, 99, 2001, 2010, and 2015 are the best analogs in terms of two guards and a wing.
Matt Jones and Gary Trent were definitely guards! Dawkins too. Come on.
I wager the three of them defended the other team's 2 faaaaaar more often than the other team's 4.
Ok. My definition of positions would be the ones they play on defense. In that sense Matt Jones is a wing because he guard 1-3. Nolan would be a guard because he guards 1-2. Outside of centers, players should be able to guard multiple adjacent positions and that gives me a consistent methodology to define the position a player plays regardless of their offensive capabilities.
So imo, next year we'll have 3 guards in that sense in Moore, Roach, and DJ. 4 if Goldie returns.
So since 2010 in notable years
2010: 3 guards
2015: 4 guards
2018: 5 guards
2019: 4 guards. I don't remember if Cam guarded pgs.
2020: 5 guards.
2021: assuming JGold returns will have 4 guards.
https://twitter.com/jakeweingarten/s...552701952?s=20
According to Jake we've reached out or will be. Seems like could be a good fit for us and our guard situation next year.
247 thinks he will be a 5* at next update and describes him.
Consistently productive point guard with good size and length. Solid frame with plenty of room to add strength. Has nice combination of scoring and creating for point guard position. Has ball skills and vision to consistently create for others while his jumper is playable to the perimeter. Finishes well at rim due to physical tools. Has ability to defend both guard positions at next level due to instincts and length. Projects as high major starter with professional upside if game continues to progress.
What makes him really attractive on the college level is that Washington is just as dangerous playing off of the ball because of his scoring. The ability to play him with another point guard and give an extra ball handler is a strong selling point to those looking to get involved.