Originally Posted by
DavidBenAkiva
Now that the season is over, I thought it would help me and maybe some of you to get my thoughts down on where I see things and where they are going. Here is my understanding on where things stand with regards to the current roster:
Probably gone (95% likely): Matthew Hurt
Maybe gone (66% likely): Jordan Goldwire, Patrick Tapé
Testing the waters (33% chance gone): DJ Steward, Mark Williams
Probably returning (<10% chance leaving): Joey Baker*, Wendell Moore, Jaemyn Brakefield, Henry Coleman, and Jeremy Roach
Incoming Players: Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin
My assumption here is that both of Goldwire and Tapé are going to be gone after this season. They are college players and have the opportunity to move on with their lives in whatever capacity suits them. For Tapé, Duke presented an opportunity to earn a Masters Degree towards his goal of becoming an urban planner. For Goldwire, he could try to find professional playing opportunities overseas or really do anything he wants in life. The world is in front of them both. They will have more limited playing opportunities next year, which makes me think they will leave Duke. Goldwire will forever be one of my favorite development stories.
While I think DJ and Mark have pro potential, it serves them both well to come back. Both need to develop strength and a full offseason conditioning and strength program could do wonders. Basically, they have a lot to gain from staying at Duke and not a lot to lose.
Joey Baker is an interesting case. He has a skillset that could be useful and found his shooting form after a rough start to the year. He's about the same age as Jaemyn Brakefield, so I still think there could be improvement from him. He's certainly trying to be a better overall player. If he gets another year at Duke out of this whole COVID situation, I think he could end up as a great 6th man in 2022-23. Does he want to stay? He seems to love being at Duke. We shall see if he stays.
Otherwise, my full expectation is that everyone but Matt and the seniors will be back and Duke will add two extremely talented players in Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin. It should be a more mature, experienced, and talented roster than in 2021.
As far as recruiting, Duke is still waiting for more. They have offers out for Patrick Baldwin, Jr. and Trevor Keels. Both have been "trending away" from Duke. Several reports and Duke insiders have indicated that Baldwin may stay home and play for his father at Milwaukee while Keels will commit to Villanova. That would be a shame as one or both could be a big difference maker for Duke next season (or beyond). My expectation is that Duke will wait until the very end to hear from these two before pivoting to other options. There are several other options available, such as Auburn transfer Justin Powell (6'6" G) and HS SR TyTy Washington (6'3" G). There will be many, many transfers on the market this offseason, even more than normal. The NCAA has indicated they will allow a one-time transfer exception for this summer and then vote on a permanent exception for the future. What this means is that Duke will have options, either among incoming freshmen or transfers, should Baldwin and Keels not commit.
For now, my expected roster for Duke heading into 2021-22 is as follows:
SR: Baker
JR: Moore
SO: Brakefield, Coleman, Roach, Steward, Williams
FR: Banchero, Griffin, 1-2 TBD (or transfers)
There's at least one high-quality player here at every position, although depth at PG and C is thin. DJ Steward, and to a lesser extent Wendell Moore, could slide into the backup PG spot for 5-10 minutes a game if needed. If there's a real position of need, it is in the backcourt. I expect at least one player will join the roster as a freshman or through transfer. With Banchero at about 6'10" and 240 lbs or so, he has the size to easily play the C position in college and I do think we'll see him do that for a lot of the season, about 10-15 minutes a game. It would be nice to have a backup C behind Williams, though. Perhaps this is where another player might commit, like Enoch Boakye or a transfer, under the assumption that more playing time will be available in 2022-23 and beyond. I'm not sure where things stand with regards to C targets, to be honest. Duke had expressed interest in Boakye before he committed and then de-committed from MSU. And Duke also reached out to Charles Bediako, a top 50 C that is uncommitted. We'll see if they ramp up the recruiting interest now that it seems Williams won't be as likely to stick around for a third year as it did in December.
There should be movement on the recruiting trail later this month or in April.