Originally Posted by
CDu
That's not a very sound argument in my opinion. You decisions based on the probability of an outcome. In either case, there's a chance of winning and a chance of losing. Ultimately, the outcome that occurs is just one of a nearly infinite number of potential scenarios that could occur. The resulting outcome does not prove that either strategy is right or wrong.
It sounds weird, I know, but to analyze the decision you have to ignore the outcome and consider the probabilities of the various outcomes for each decision. There is an empirically correct answer based on the probabilities of the potential outcomes. I don't know which decision is correct, and to be honest I would say it is VERY difficult to confidently say which decision that is (it would require a lot of data and a lot of calculations). But that answer is the correct decision regardless of the subsequent outcome.
You make a decision that maximizes the probability that you win, with the understanding that there is a probability of losing with any decision you make.