Major League Baseball - 2019 Season

It's time to begin our discussion of MLB for the upcoming season. Pitchers and catchers begin to report to training camp next week and by mid-month all the teams will have players at spring training.

Just to kick off discussion, here's an article by Duke alum Barry Svrluga of the WaPo on the current activity -- really, lack of activity -- in the free agent market. He gives credit to his hometown Washington Nationals for their efforts to fill gaps and needs but points that the Nats have spent more than 14 other teams combined.

And, of course, the mega-talented Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sagegrouse

He gives credit to his hometown Washington Nationals for their efforts to fill gaps and needs but points that the Nats have spent more than 14 other teams combined.

---

The Department of Defense laughs...

This may be my only post on the thread for this season.

There used to be a team in Detroit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by weezie

This may be my only post on the thread for this season.

There used to be a team in Detroit.

---

As a Twins fan, I feel your pain.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by weezie

This may be my only post on the thread for this season.

There used to be a team in Detroit.

---

I'm not sure I can name five guys on our formerly heroic team. Once again, the DirecTV Bezbol package will have to soldier on without me. We traded all our stars for a sack of beads.

This doesn't really have any bearing on the 2019 season, but tough break for the A's, as Kyler Murray, their first round pick last spring (9th overall) says he's committing fully to football. They surely knew there was some risk when they drafted him, but it's still tough to lose such a high pick. They will retain his rights, but get no draft pick compensation.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/st...fl-quarterback

Machado stays in SoCal and signs with the Padres. No terms yet, but supposedly they'd offered him $250MM for 8 years, so presumably in that neighborhood.

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...09714153811968

Edit - 10 years, $300MM. Not too shabby.

https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1097911249399177221

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Blue in the Face

Machado stays in SoCal and signs with the Padres. No terms yet, but supposedly they'd offered him $250MM for 8 years, so presumably in that neighborhood.

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...09714153811968

Edit - 10 years, $300MM. Not too shabby.

https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1097911249399177221

---

I'm amazed by such. Maybe he could turn that around and put a 20% down payment on the Padres franchise.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Blue in the Face

Machado stays in SoCal and signs with the Padres. No terms yet, but supposedly they'd offered him $250MM for 8 years, so presumably in that neighborhood.

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/statu...09714153811968

Edit - 10 years, $300MM. Not too shabby.

https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1097911249399177221

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by camion

I'm amazed by such. Maybe he could turn that around and put a 20% down payment on the Padres franchise.

---

Hmmm...dude who doesn't even pretend he likes to hustle gets a 10-year deal to run into his late 30s...this should go well.

Meanwhile, there's growing frustration here in Atlanta about how even though the Barves' revenues from their tax-funded boondoggle, I mean stadium-centered real estate project, are higher than expected and still climbing, and the team recently sold off a significant chunk of said real estate at a profit, they still aren't plowing the money back into payroll as promised.
It's almost as if a corporate entity 1400 miles from Atlanta doesn't actually care about the team's fortunes, and is just in the whole thing to make a buck! 400 million tax dollars to make burgeoning profits while the team keeps plodding along and calling itself "mid-market" despite inhabiting the 8th- or 9th-largest US metropolitan area (depending on who you ask) is one heck of a deal, especially in Cobb County.
In case it wasn't clear, I'm still pissed and the Barves are still dead to me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by wilson

Hmmm...dude who doesn't even pretend he likes to hustle gets a 10-year deal to run into his late 30s...this should go well.

---

More like mid-30s...he will start the final season of that contract at age 35 (and he can also opt out at age 31). The Padres are locking up an elite player (who already has three seasons of at least 6 WAR, and another at 5 WAR) for several seasons as he is entering his prime.

off the top of my head, I can't think of too many ten year baseball contracts that have ended well.

To me, this represents the absolute opposite of The Belichick Approach (not that I like the man, but he knows how to manage salaries to remain competitive, albeit in a different league with much different circumstances).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by El_Diablo

More like mid-30s...he will start the final season of that contract at age 35

---

This is a fair point; theoretically, there shouldn't be that much of a dropoff in production due to age or decline, unless there's an injury.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by El_Diablo

(and he can also opt out at age 31).

---

This, though, strikes me as more of a negative than a positive. If one accepts the general book on Machado that he's not much of a hustler (which I do), then why would he opt out of a $30 million annual payday? I think this runs the risk of 5ish years of good but not great production at a very premium price.

In short, I don't think Machado warrants the biggest free agent contract in the history of North American sports, and I think it's a particularly bad investment by a team with limited resources like the Fathers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by budwom

off the top of my head, I can't think of too many ten year baseball contracts that have ended well.

---

There haven't been all that many of them, period. Pujols' deal with LAA is pretty infamous, but he was 32 when he signed it. A-Rod's first 10-year deal worked out quite well, at least in the sense that his on-field performance justified the contract. Machado's one of the best players in the game, he's only 26, and inflation will take some of the sting out of those later years. Even if he's overpaid in the last 2-3 years of the deal, he should be productive enough in the earlier years to make it worthwhile. Yea it's a risk but IMO an acceptable one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by wilson

Meanwhile, there's growing frustration here in Atlanta about how even though the Barves' revenues from their tax-funded boondoggle, I mean stadium-centered real estate project, are higher than expected and still climbing, and the team recently sold off a significant chunk of said real estate at a profit, they still aren't plowing the money back into payroll as promised.
It's almost as if a corporate entity 1400 miles from Atlanta doesn't actually care about the team's fortunes, and is just in the whole thing to make a buck! 400 million tax dollars to make burgeoning profits while the team keeps plodding along and calling itself "mid-market" despite inhabiting the 8th- or 9th-largest US metropolitan area (depending on who you ask) is one heck of a deal, especially in Cobb County.
In case it wasn't clear, I'm still pissed and the Barves are still dead to me.

---

And here's the other end of the spectrum, a team that had an obvious hole in RF this winter and filled it with another year of Nick Markakis, rather than taking a risk on Harper or even someone like McCutchen. The narrative the Braves are trying to sell is complete crap IMO. We've got a pretty good, fringe-y playoff team that needs some additions to make the leap to serious contender, but management is risk-averse beyond the point of reason.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Matches

...The narrative the Braves are trying to sell is complete crap IMO. We've got a pretty good, fringe-y playoff team that needs some additions to make the leap to serious contender, but management is risk-averse beyond the point of reason.

---

I think it's even worse than this (though, to be fair, my read of Barves management's actions is pretty much always apt to be more skeptical and negative than others'). It seems to me that this is an active bait-and-switch, disinformation campaign. For half a decade, the Liberty Media people have been promising that the added revenues from the stadium project would offset lost revenues from the Barves' (embarrassing, abject joke of a) weak TV contract, and that once that new cash flow hit balance sheets, at least some of it would be invested in the on-field product.
Instead, corporate offices are now enjoying rising profits from the team, and payroll isn't climbing at all. Again, it's a hell of a deal from notoriously tax-averse Cobb County, and it's pretty much exactly what I (and many others) predicted when we (it seems rightly) saw right through the promises of competitiveness and rising payroll, and saw that Barves management just wanted yet another public subsidy for private stadium profits. It would be infuriating if I lived in Cobb and/or hadn't fully divested from any interest in the team.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Matches

... And here's the other end of the spectrum, a team that had an obvious hole in RF this winter and filled it with another year of Nick Markakis, rather than ...

---

What were they thinking? Last year, he only played in 162 games and batted .297, won a Gold Glove, and was an all-star.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Reilly

What were they thinking? Last year, he only played in 162 games and batted .297, won a Gold Glove, and was an all-star.

---

The gold glove probably shouldn’t have been, and he’s 35 with 4 of the past 6 seasons he played like a guy who shouldn’t be a starter.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CDu

The gold glove probably shouldn’t have been, and he’s 35 with 4 of the past 6 seasons he played like a guy who shouldn’t be a starter.

---

He's also never had any power, but he occupies a power position for most teams, and his production fell off pretty significantly after last year's all star break.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by wilson

He's also never had any power, but he occupies a power position for most teams, and his production fell off pretty significantly after last year's all star break.

---

Well, he has had SOME power. A perennial ~15 HR guy, who at his peak was a 20+ HR guy. But that was 10 years ago.

I care less about the power honestly. Especially with the power available at SS and 2B. If he’s productive, he’s productive. I just don’t expect him to be productive.

Markakis doesn't hit a ton of HRs but he does have some gap power. But his numbers from last year aren't likely to be repeated. He played out of his mind for the first 2-3 months, then came back to his career norms. He's not going to repeat those stats this year. He'll either be at his (solid but unspectacular) career norms, or below them.

RF was the obvious spot for the Braves to upgrade the offense, and they didn't do it. If Donaldson returns to form and has a big year, maybe that won't matter, but given the team's public statements that they intended to be big players in the FA market this offseason, rolling with Nick for yet another year is a letdown.

And yea, the GG was a joke. He's at best an average defensive OF.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by budwom

off the top of my head, I can't think of too many ten year baseball contracts that have ended well.

---

And it is doubly bad when a small market team does it. See Cincy/Joey Votto. Not that he has been awful(last year wasn't great), but the ensuing roster inflexibility means you can't make any mistakes.