Recruiting in Pandemic Times

Instead of nestling this in one of dated recruiting threads, or in the transfer threads, I figured I'd start a new one since I'm curious about what people think, and it applies to all sports.

Fall sports are likely toast. There is a decent chance that winter isn't going to be played either. What are the implications on recruiting and the makeup of current teams?
Each year we assume that players in the high profile sports are going to leave early; and also every year we play the "who is leaving game" after the season is over. Some guys have played themselves into consideration, others have played themselves out. But the coaches, regardless of the sport, have not stopped recruiting their replacements.
Long story short, when sports do swing back into play, who gets left out in the cold? Football players often stick around for 5 years; will a basketball player elect to do the same if he wasn't able to play this season? Will the coaches allow it, or kick him/her to the curb?

Lastly, how are coaches evaluating prospective talent if they can't see them play?

Well for us the only senior that could potentially be affected is Goldwire. In the scenario where the NCAA allows fall sport athletes a fifth year of eligibility, I guess it's conceivable that he could choose to return. But relative to other schools who have multiple seniors in the rotation I think this is a minor concern for us. We're still going to recruit an elite point guard for 2021.

As far as the rest of the roster, if the season gets wiped out then that definitely throws a wrench into things. Johnson might choose to leave, but I would imagine everybody else would stay. That would be quite a shift across the entire college basketball landscape, to the point that it's probably not worth worrying about because things would be bonkers for everybody. If all the top teams retain the majority of their rosters, then we'll see a lot of high-level players going to smaller less prominent schools. Which would actually be kind of cool in the big picture of the sport.

As for how coaches evaluate players when they can't see them, the NCAA has extended the recruiting dead period basically indefinitely. Duke can find tape of the players that it would be recruiting. Smaller schools are going to be at a major disadvantage though, without summer events where they could see some of these kids.

It’s the high school seniors who would be most hurt by losing their season (in any sport) if they were a “late bloomers” and were going to really up their game and get a scholarship somewhere. The top 100 would be fine but the 100-400 (or lower) kids wouldn’t be able to suddenly be able to catch some coaches eye.

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Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE

It’s the high school seniors who would be most hurt by losing their season (in any sport) if they were a “late bloomers” and were going to really up their game and get a scholarship somewhere. The top 100 would be fine but the 100-400 (or lower) kids wouldn’t be able to suddenly be able to catch some coaches eye.

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How about if college sports lose a full year, and there's a log jam of players and scholarships? Two years of incoming players and an extra year of eligibility for those who missed a full season of sports.

Doesn't seem that far-fetched, and sounds like a logistical nightmare.

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

How about if college sports lose a full year, and there's a log jam of players and scholarships? Two years of incoming players and an extra year of eligibility for those who missed a full season of sports.

Doesn't seem that far-fetched, and sounds like a logistical nightmare.

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Yeah, I've wondered how (for example) they'll pay for all the extra lax players on scholarship next year...

I do suspect, though, that lots of high level hoopsters will just say adios and head for the NBA...

I can't see how Winter sports (e.g. hoops) can possibly begin in November...a major delay waiting for a vaccine may be the only hope.

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Originally Posted by budwom

Yeah, I've wondered how (for example) they'll pay for all the extra lax players on scholarship next year...

I do suspect, though, that lots of high level hoopsters will just say adios and head for the NBA...

I can't see how Winter sports (e.g. hoops) can possibly begin in November...a major delay waiting for a vaccine may be the only hope.

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But like, not everyone can go to the NBA. It just feels that way sometimes as a Duke fan.

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

How about if college sports lose a full year, and there's a log jam of players and scholarships? Two years of incoming players and an extra year of eligibility for those who missed a full season of sports.

Doesn't seem that far-fetched, and sounds like a logistical nightmare.

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That scenario is exactly what I had in mind when I opened this thread. I think it is very possible. Someone is going to get left out in the cold unfortunately.

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

But like, not everyone can go to the NBA. It just feels that way sometimes as a Duke fan.

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Indeed. 350 D1 schools, 13 schollies, divided by 4 years of eligibility suggests more than 1100 players per class.

-jk

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Originally Posted by -jk

Indeed. 350 D1 schools, 13 schollies, divided by 4 years of eligibility suggests more than 1100 players per class.

-jk

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And that's just basketball. Football teams have huge numbers of students, with many if not most playing 5 years due to redshirt freshman years. There will not be room for everyone; coaching staffs are going to have some heady choices to make.

Given that Football and Basketball generate most of the income used by other sports, if these sports are not held in 2020-21 then the number of scholarships for all sports may be reduced or like Stanford programs eliminated.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...orts-programs/

I suspect several factors are going to lead to a delayed season with limited or no fans and limited travel. First and foremost, there is too much TV money involved to cancel the entire college basketball season outright. Second, (hopefully) the continued success of youth and professional sports at holding competition without mass transmission of the virus will lead high schools and colleges to give sports (and other activities) a chance with proper procedures. Youth/travel sports have been alive and well in my area for over a month with strict protocols and so far so good. Third, a combination of better testing/treatments (maybe even a vaccine) and the public eventually tiring of sacrificing due to the pandemic will eventually lead to a return to more normal life activity. “June Jubilation” anyone?

Like others, I suspect that without a season many of the top 2020-2021 would be freshman will turn pro. Still, even with those players leaving college, there would be to a ton of extra rostered college basketball players (who would presumably be granted an extra year of eligibility a la spring sports) and probably a whole lot of graduate transfers. It would be interesting how college basketball would handle the next few seasons with the glut of players. College baseball, for instance, is allowed to have expanded rosters and now able to provide players need-based aid without counting the money against their scholarship limit. Hopefully, the NCAA would get creative.

ESPN has an article up on this.

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In years past, we would be finally settling down after a grueling monthlong period that saw college coaches and grassroots teams from around the country traveling to different tournaments from South Carolina to Las Vegas. NCAA-sponsored camps were added to the fold last year, as were three weekends of events in the month of June. The action would have come to a close and we would be entering peak recruiting season, where prospects cut their lists and then take official visits to their final five schools every weekend.

It's a landscape that has all but disappeared in 2020.

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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...s-disadvantage

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Originally Posted by -jk

Indeed. 350 D1 schools, 13 schollies, divided by 4 years of eligibility suggests more than 1100 players per class.

-jk

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If the so called NBA experts are correct and Carey, Cassius and Tre fall to the 2nd round, that could be a case for freshmen players to stick around for a year. However, I do realize that a good percentage of kids who learn how to bounce a basketball at the age of 5 think they are going to be NBA HOF players.

GoDuke!

I guess if we have no season at all, Jalen Johnson would be a lock to go pro. The other recruits, not having really played a minute of college ball, it's hard to tell what they would do. But if Johnson were to be the only one who would leave early, then the following season would look really great.So many unknowns right now.