Originally Posted by
JasonEvans
How does 49-49 or 50-48 happen? Is there another seat that will not be filled after November? I guess you are thinking of Louisiana, which also has a jungle primary that generally results in a run off, but Louisiana does their runoff fairly quickly (generally first week of December) and that seat is very likely to remain in GOP hands in the end.
Also, if a Dem wins the White House and the Senate is 50-49 Democrats then the seat isn't nearly as important as if the GOP leads 50-49 with a Democratic VP waiting to break the tie. I should mention that the opposite is possible if Trump wins re-election, but the odds that the Dems take that many senate seats in a year where Trump wins the White House seems nearly impossible.
It will be very interesting to see how many folks jump into the jungle primary in GA. Odds are there will be a Dem and Republican to each come out in the end, but if it is a crowded field, it raises the possibility of just one party taking the top two spots. It would take a huge mess on the other side, but lets say D1 gets 25%, D2 gets 22%, and then R1, R2, and R3 each get 15-20%.
--Jason "Unlikely, but possible... and would be the kind of thing that ranked choice voting would instantly solve" Evans