WBB: #16 Duke 57, #9 ND 52

In the last couple of games Lawson has used Kennedy Brown as a high-post distributor, with decent success. This draws out the defending post player and has resulted in some good movement and scoring opportunities. What has not worked is to feed Brown in the low post where she gets pushed around and either travels, loses the ball, passes wildly or misses a shot. I'm hoping that going forward Duke can use what works and abandons what does not. Brown's defense and rebounding have been very good so she deserves starter's minutes with Heide as her backup.

I'm so impressed by what Coach Lawson, her staff, and the team has done this year. Looking forward to seeing how much noise we can make in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. Congrats to the team on the win over the Irish!

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Originally Posted by DoubleBlue

In the last couple of games Lawson has used Kennedy Brown as a high-post distributor, with decent success. This draws out the defending post player and has resulted in some good movement and scoring opportunities. What has not worked is to feed Brown in the low post where she gets pushed around and either travels, loses the ball, passes wildly or misses a shot. I'm hoping that going forward Duke can use what works and abandons what does not. Brown's defense and rebounding have been very good so she deserves starter's minutes with Heide as her backup.

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On the broadcast one of the announcers said what I have been thinking all year- Brown needs to have more patience down low. She rushes her shots and does not finish. She needs a pump fake or two to at least get to the line. She is a good defensive player and can rebound.

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Originally Posted by DoubleBlue

Thanks, hadn't heard if they wanted to use the extra year and stay at Duke.

Plus these are Kara's incoming 2023 recruits:
Jadyn Donovan #3 ESPN
Oluchi Okananwa #27
Delaney Thomas #29
I think these are verbal commits at this point.

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No, all three are signed and sealed commits

We could very well be ranked in the top 10 tomorrow. The #8, 10, 11, 12, 14, and 15 teams all lost this week, and most of them were bad losses. And of course we just beat the #9 team on the road. #8 and #10 lost to higher ranked teams, but #10's loss was to #8 by 36 points(!) and is their 4th loss in the past 5 games. #14 lost to #22, and the others lost to unranked teams.

The #13 team is Virginia Tech, who we beat 10 days ago by 11 points, and of course we sit alone atop the conference so we should be ranked over them.

I know the rankings are what they are, but recruits (and transfers) notice. We're losing our entire frontcourt (those who see minutes) except for Kennedy. Our only other returning player over 6-0 is 6-3 Shay, who hopefully will be ready after a year in the program and using this time further recovering from her high school knee injuries. Our only recruit over 6-0 is 6-2 Delaney. We'll get 1 year out of the incoming 6-5 Emsbo, hopefully she will be ready after tearing her ACL in October.

I expect Kara to grab at least 1 more big from the portal, and a very good one. There will be playing time available. I know this is looking ahead (because I am very much enjoying the now), but my main reason for this post is that I expect Kara to get 2 top-10 bigs from the 2024 class. You have to have top-10 (and hopefully top-5) recruits to get to where we want to go. Kara has now beaten all 4 teams who got 1st-place votes in the ACC preseason, and we were barely picked to finish in the top half. If we hold on for a top-4 finish and double bye, she's a lock for ACC COY. If we remain on top of the best conference in the country, she'll grab some National COY honors. And how can you not like her? Recruits are going to want to play for her.

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Originally Posted by dudog84

I expect Kara to grab at least 1 more big from the portal, and a very good one. There will be playing time available. I know this is looking ahead (because I am very much enjoying the now), but my main reason for this post is that I expect Kara to get 2 top-10 bigs from the 2024 class. You have to have top-10 (and hopefully top-5) recruits to get to where we want to go. Kara has now beaten all 4 teams who got 1st-place votes in the ACC preseason, and we were barely picked to finish in the top half. If we hold on for a top-4 finish and double bye, she's a lock for ACC COY. If we remain on top of the best conference in the country, she'll grab some National COY honors. And how can you not like her? Recruits are going to want to play for her.

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The coach from FSU might end up winning the ACC COY.. it's a toss-up right now. They were picked to be 9th, and she lost most of her team to grad transfer in the off-season. If they finish with the #1 seed with a head to head victory over Duke, then she will probably win the honor.

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Originally Posted by triaddukefan

The coach from FSU might end up winning the ACC COY.. it's a toss-up right now. They were picked to be 9th, and she lost most of her team to grad transfer in the off-season. If they finish with the #1 seed with a head to head victory over Duke, then she will probably win the honor.

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Good point, and their remaining schedule is much easier than ours. Heck, their entire schedule is a joke. Those 4 teams that got 1st place votes in the preseason...Duke plays them 6 times, FSU got them each once (and preseason #5 uNC once). I miss the days of home-and-home conference matchups.

What a weekend for Duke basketball!

Early in the season, I said I thought Duke could compete with a chance to win against any team in the country outside the top 5. I still think it.

OFFENSE

Possessions: 63.7 (slow, as usual)
oRtg: 0.90 (not good, but Notre Dame has an excellent defense, so who knows what our adjusted O might be?)
eFG%: 43.6% (not good, not horrible)
3pt%: 25.0% (room for improvement; on the bright side, we shot 40% on threes in the 2nd half)
2pt%: 46.2% (not great, but our best 2pt shooting in our last four games)
%threes: 29.1% (close to the sweet spot)
FT rate: 21.8% (meh)
OR%: 29.4% (not awful)
TO%: 22.0% (could have been better)
a/to: 0.9:1 (eleventh game in a row of 1:1 or worse)
%assisted: 59.1% (still sharing the ball well, though)
fast break pts: 6 (10.5% of points; meh)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.82 (good; 20th game out of 23 under 0.883)
eFG%: 43.3% (also good)
3pt%: 27.3% (again, good)
2pt%: 43.9% (you guessed it: good)
%threes: 21.2% (nice and low)
FT rate: 26.9% (pretty good)
DR%: 75.0% (strong)
TO%: 22.0% (good for some teams; but it's our 4th-lowest forced TO% of the season and 3rd straight game under 23% (after nine straight games over 25%))
a/to: 0.5:1 (17th straight game under 0.7:1)
%assisted: 33.3%
stl%: 4.7% (anemic; 2nd-worst steals% of the season)
blk%: 9.8% (2pt shots) (only fair, after three straight block rates over 20%)
fast break pts: 9 (17.3% of points; worse than ideal)


Our defense was very good, as it almost always is. Our offense didn't quite rise to the level of goodness, but it was enough to win. Notre Dame is a really good team, so if we could calculate adjusted numbers, they might paint a prettier picture. Even so, beating a top ten team on the road is a huge achievement.

I have seen about 70% of the women's games this year. Offensively, they can be tough to watch but defensively they are pretty incredible. Celeste Taylor should be must watch viewing for any player that wants to know what it takes to be an elite defender. She is fearless and seems to have a motor that never stops. It is a joy watching her play. I don't know if she qualifies for an extra year of eligibility, but I sure hope she does.

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Originally Posted by dukelifer

On the broadcast one of the announcers said what I have been thinking all year- Brown needs to have more patience down low. She rushes her shots and does not finish. She needs a pump fake or two to at least get to the line. She is a good defensive player and can rebound.

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I agree with the premise but wanted to point out that the announcer made the comment after a rushed shot at the end of the shot clock. I was thinking at the time that it wasn’t a fair critique of the play because of that. But sometimes maybe she rushes when she doesn’t need to.

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Originally Posted by nmduke2001

I have seen about 70% of the women's games this year. Offensively, they can be tough to watch but defensively they are pretty incredible. Celeste Taylor should be must watch viewing for any player that wants to know what it takes to be an elite defender. She is fearless and seems to have a motor that never stops. It is a joy watching her play. I don't know if she qualifies for an extra year of eligibility, but I sure hope she does.

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There's pretty solid word out there that Celeste plans to forego her last year of extended eligibility and go pro after the season. Yes, she qualifies, but don't let that get your hopes up, unfortunately.

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Originally Posted by Phredd3

There's pretty solid word out there that Celeste plans to forego her last year of extended eligibility and go pro after the season. Yes, she qualifies, but don't let that get your hopes up, unfortunately.

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Given how well she’s playing, it’s easy to see why she’d think she can be drafted decently high for the WNBA. We will miss her badly next year

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Originally Posted by loran16

Given how well she’s playing, it’s easy to see why she’d think she can be drafted decently high for the WNBA. We will miss her badly next year

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Even if she's not drafted highly (and that would surprise me, it's not a big draft and there's lots of really good seniors this year), she'll be sought overseas for sure. I do expect to see her on an WNBA court, just not from being "highly" drafted. She'll be a second rounder if called.
That being said, she's in this mock at 20, and they have that as a 19 position jump from their previous.

https://www.lines.com/wnba/drafts/big-board/2023

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Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred

Even if she's not drafted highly (and that would surprise me, it's not a big draft and there's lots of really good seniors this year), she'll be sought overseas for sure. I do expect to see her on an WNBA court, just not from being "highly" drafted. She'll be a second rounder if called.
That being said, she's in this mock at 20, and they have that as a 19 position jump from their previous.

https://www.lines.com/wnba/drafts/big-board/2023

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Fair point, it’s easy to forget it’s only a 12 team league, but still middle of the second is an impressive result and I expect her to make money somewhere even if overseas. She’s graduating this year and I don’t think would have a chance at a title next year so it makes sense for her to go.

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Originally Posted by Phredd3

There's pretty solid word out there that Celeste plans to forego her last year of extended eligibility and go pro after the season. Yes, she qualifies, but don't let that get your hopes up, unfortunately.

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Makes sense for Taylor. What about Balogun? Why has she indicated she's not returning?

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Originally Posted by loran16

Fair point, it’s easy to forget it’s only a 12 team league, but still middle of the second is an impressive result and I expect her to make money somewhere even if overseas. She’s graduating this year and I don’t think would have a chance at a title next year so it makes sense for her to go.

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As we all know, for women, that's where THE money is at. But still, being on a WNBA roster carries prestige, and I imagine she'll be sporting a jersey.
I do HOPE she'd have a chance at a title next year, but I agree, this is a good year to take her chances, especially while healthy. No need to put knees at risk for another season, go make that money!

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Originally Posted by DoubleBlue

Makes sense for Taylor. What about Balogun? Why has she indicated she's not returning?

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Sorry, I didn't see this right away. Elizabeth Balogun does not have eligibility remaining. She played a year for Georgia Tech, two years for Louisville, and this is her second season for Duke. She got the extra one due to COVID, but she's already used it.

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Originally Posted by Phredd3

Sorry, I didn't see this right away. Elizabeth Balogun does not have eligibility remaining. She played a year for Georgia Tech, two years for Louisville, and this is her second season for Duke. She got the extra one due to COVID, but she's already used it.

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Thanks, Phredd. She's listed as a Senior, rather than a Graduate student, so I guess she's finally able to get her degree only this year.