Top boxoffice hits of Summer 2011 (new and revised!!)

NOTE-- THIS IS THE NEW THREAD TO REFLECT THE INCLUSION OF THE XMEN FILM I ACCIDENTALLY LEFT OUT OF THE ORIGINAL THREAD!

We have talked about it and now it is time! You will have almost two weeks to vote. The poll for the Top 5 movies of the summer will close on May 6th, the date Thor opens.

Remember, you will vote for 5 films in the poll. Do not vote for less or more than 5 or you will have no chance of winning. We are yet to have anyone get all 5 movies right for a summer contest.

The films in the poll will be listed in order of their release date. Here are the 14 nominees... we leave one space blank for "other" and you must explain in a post what you voted for if you vote other.

Thor (May 6)
Pirates of the Carib 4 (May 20)
Hangover II (May 26)
Kung Fu Panda II (May 26)
X-Men: First Class (June 3)
Super 8 (June 10)
Green Lantern (June 17)
Cars II (June 24)
Transformers 3 (July 1)
Zookeeper (July 8)
Harry Potter 7.2 (July 15)
Captain America (July 22)
Cowboys and Aliens (July 29)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Aug 5)

Good luck. Please post explanations of your votes and feel free to discuss/converse with other about your votes.

-Jason "Top 5 is determined by Boxoffice (aka: ticket sales)" Evans

Only the trailer for Super 8 has piqued my interest and the rest of the summer fare seems rather lame. Because of that there will probably be a couple of surprises in the top 5. I think the top 5 will be Harry Potter (the only no brainer), Super 8 (the trailer), Cowboys and Aliens (Favreau has a great track record), Cars II (Pixar even though the trailers are lackluster) and Kung Fu Panda II (kids movie, repeat viewings).

My guess is Transformers comes in big but I just cannot pick the Bay/LeBeouf combo.

I went with mostly kid friendly movies (Cars II, KFP II, Pirates IV, and HPVII.2) and The Hangover, for the gross adults. Kids draw!

Well, then, I'll reiterate what I already said:

I think POTC4, Transformers 3, Cars 2, and Harry Potter 7.2 are locks. The hard one is the last one in my book. Will Hangover 2 pull a Hangover? Will Kung Fu Panda 2 build on the first's success and bring in the kiddies? Kids movies usually do really well in the summer. I haven't seen the buzz for Thor, Green Lantern, or Captain America. The problem with those is that it's hard to pick between them. I've heard interesting things about Super 8, but top 5? I'm going to have to think about this some more.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Thor (May 6)
Pirates of the Carib 4 (May 20)
Hangover II (May 26)
Kung Fu Panda II (May 26)
X-Men: First Class (June 3)
Super 8 (June 10)
Green Lantern (June 17)
Cars II (June 24)
Transformers 3 (July 1)
Zookeeper (July 8)
Harry Potter 7.2 (July 15)
Captain America (July 22)
Cowboys and Aliens (July 29)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (Aug 5)

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It is interesting to look at the release schedule and think about how it may help or hurt some films.

Thor gets 2 weekends with no competition (Priest opens May 13th, but is not going to impact Thor very much). Every other film has a weekend to itself but then faces a new big-time competitor the following week. The only possible exception is Transformers which gets what will probably be a somewhat lightweight competitor its second weekend in The Zookeeper. Still, almost all these films will face a real challenge to be #1 at the boxoffice more than 1 weekend in a row.

There are enough similar films, with similar kind of buzz and built in audience so that the determining factor will almost certainly be word of mouth and reviews. Guessing at that is a very inexact science, though I plan to study directors and screenwriters more than usual in making my choices.

In my opinion, the only sure thing is HP 7.2. There are 2 or 3 others that seem extremely likely to make the Top 5, but if the reviews are horrible and buzz is bad, they could come up short. Potter is the exception. First of all, we already know the story and it is pretty good. But, the real reason is that so many folks have grown up with these characters and this story and they NEED to see the end of it. Nothing will stop that film from making $300 million... nothing.

I could make an argument for any of the other movies not being in the Top 5... but not for Potter.

-Jason "oftentimes one 'new' film makes the Top 5 -- so which of Cowboys, Super 8, or Zookeeper do we like best?" Evans

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

In my opinion, the only sure thing is HP 7.2. There are 2 or 3 others that seem extremely likely to make the Top 5, but if the reviews are horrible and buzz is bad, they could come up short. Potter is the exception. First of all, we already know the story and it is pretty good. But, the real reason is that so many folks have grown up with these characters and this story and they NEED to see the end of it. Nothing will stop that film from making $300 million... nothing.

I could make an argument for any of the other movies not being in the Top 5... but not for Potter.

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Jason, I totally agree about the Potter film. It 's the one absolute lock on the list.

But curious, we've already had one voter leave it off. I'd really be interested to hear why?

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Originally Posted by Olympic Fan

Jason, I totally agree about the Potter film. It 's the one absolute lock on the list.

But curious, we've already had one voter leave it off. I'd really be interested to hear why?

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The person who left Potter out of their Top 5 is KDogg. This may be because KDogg only voted for 1 film. He apparently thinks that Pirates 4 will be so huge, it will occupy all 5 of the Top 5 spots ;)

--Jason "I keed, KDogg. I am sure he simply did not know how the multiple-choice poll worked" Evans

Transformers 3 - I'm a believer.

HP7.2
TF3
Cars 2
Hangover 2
PotC 4

All sequels. So I know that's not right. But that's what I voted for. Thor, Capt America, KF Panda and Super 8 (as this year's inception) are only other movies with a chance.

Green Lantern looks awful. I never knew the backstory, but if that's it, it looks like a bad CGI version of the Last Starfighter or something. And I'm a Ryan Reynolds fan.

So that's seven sequels, five adaptations, an homage and Zookeeper, whatever that is.

It's going to be a long summer.

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Originally Posted by Duvall

So that's seven sequels, five adaptations, an homage and Zookeeper, whatever that is.

It's going to be a long summer.

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i'm hoping zookeeper is some sort of bizarre zoolander prequel.

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Originally Posted by Duvall

So that's seven sequels, five adaptations, an homage and Zookeeper, whatever that is.

It's going to be a long summer.

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Originally Posted by NovaScotian

i'm hoping zookeeper is some sort of bizarre zoolander prequel.

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Not quite.

From Wiki --

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The animals at the zoo adore their overweight caretaker Griffin Kayes (Kevin James), an amiable but lonely guy who's never quite fit in. Finding himself more comfortable with a lion than a lady, Griffin decides he should leave the zoo and get a life.

When the zoo animals discover his plan, they decide to break their code of silence and reveal their biggest secret: they can talk! Now they won't shut up and they're teaching Griffin nature's best mating rituals. To help him win the girl of his dreams (Rosario Dawson) and save their happy family, they're willing to do — or say — anything.

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Among the actors providing the voices of the animals, Adam Sandler as a monkey, Sylvester Stallone as a lion, Maya Rudolph as a lioness, Billy Crystal as a llama, Don Rickles as a frog, Kiefer Sutherland as an ape, David Spade as a flamingo, Mike Myers as a zebra, John Favreau as a bear, and Cher as a lioness.

It is going to make at least $125 million... perhaps a lot more if it is actually good and funny.

-Jason "if talking animals are what counts as an original idea in Hollywood, I fear for our entertainment future" Evans

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Not quite.

From Wiki --


Among the actors providing the voices of the animals, Adam Sandler as a monkey, Sylvester Stallone as a lion, Maya Rudolph as a lioness, Billy Crystal as a llama, Don Rickles as a frog, Kiefer Sutherland as an ape, David Spade as a flamingo, Mike Myers as a zebra, John Favreau as a bear, and Cher as a lioness.

It is going to make at least $125 million... perhaps a lot more if it is actually good and funny.

-Jason "if talking animals are what counts as an original idea in Hollywood, I fear for our entertainment future" Evans

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don rickles as a FROG? mike meyers as a ZEBRA, of all things? What will they think of next?

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Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil

All sequels. So I know that's not right.

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Same here: Kung Fu Panda 2, Super 8, Cars 2, Transformers 3, Harry Potter 7.2. I never even saw Super 1-7!

I went against my nature and picked a Memorial Day weekend release; usually there are two, and they cancel each other out. But Kung Fu Panda 2 will be the lone animation film for a full month, so it seemed worth the risk.

I decided that none of the 4 superhero movies would make my shortlist. X-Men: First Class has all of the heroes you want, and none of the actors you remember. I might have picked Captain America had it been released May 6 instead of Thor. Finally, I saw the Green Lantern trailer and thought: does most of the film take place away from Earth? If so, why should I care?

I found myself emotionally unable to fill my ballot with sequels. That's why Super 8 and Cowboys and Aliens are on my list even though I doubt that even one of them will make the top five.

I'm still curious about the thinking behind NOT picking the Harry Potter sequel.

I'm not cricizing -- I don't claim to be a whiz at predicting this stuff and it's possible you three people are right. But would somebody who DIDN"T pick Potter, please offer your reasoning. It seems like the most clearcut no-brainer on the list.

BTW, I was looking for some thoughtful, adult movies to look forward to (maybe Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris" ... or "Bad Teacher"? ... or "Crazy, Stupid Love" ... "The Help"? None will be in the top five, but I think all have potential) and I started to think about he summer's worst ideas -- movies that sound just downright awful -- both as box office poison AND as terrible concepts. My top (or is it bottom) five:

(1) The Beaver -- Mel Gibson as a suicidal man who find redemption by addressing the world through the hand puppet of a Beaver that he wears on his left hand. Proof that coke is still a problem in Hollywood.

(2) Mr. Popper's Penguins -- Jim Carrey as a driven, unhappy real estate developer, who finds redemption when he adopts six penguins.

(3) Conan the Barbarian -- Two words: No Arnold ...

(4) The Change-Up -- ANOTHER body switch movie ... this time between Justin Bateman and Ryan Reynolds.

(5) Don't Be Afraid of the Dark -- A TV star (Katie Holmes) in a remake of a TV movie, about goblins who dwell beneath the fireplace. Okay, it's directed by Guillermo del Toro, but still ... ugh.

There is a film called Passion Play coming out in limited release in the next couple weeks that is widely rumored to be one of the worst mainstream films ever made. It stars Mickey Rourke, Megan Fox, and Bill Murray. Here is a plot description from IMDB:

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Down-and-out trumpet player Nate Pool (Rourke) meets Lily (Fox), an angelic creature working as a circus sideshow attraction. As they fall in love, the couple must stay one step ahead of the gangster (Murray) who wants Lily for himself.

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Ummm, aren't Mickey Rourke and Bill Murray like twice as old as Megan Fox? Passion Play is getting a quick theatrical release and then will be going very quickly to DVD only a couple weeks later. It is also being offered "on demand" the same day it arrives in theaters. That is a good sign that the film is a stinker.

Mickey Rourke has been sorta trashing the film even though he is the star. When asked by reporters why the film is only getting a limited release he said, "because it is not very good."

The film was originally screened at the Toronto Film Festival. People apparently walked out.

--Jason "Megan Fox's character in the film actually has wings -- she's like a living angel or something" Evans

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Ummm, aren't Mickey Rourke and Bill Murray like twice as old as Megan Fox?

--Jason "Megan Fox's character in the film actually has wings -- she's like a living angel or something" Evans

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Murray's probably closer to 3x her age.

The critics have gotten a look at Thor and they seem to like it.

Most of the reviews so far come from international critics -- US critics are generally embargoed from publishing reviews until the day a film opens. Still, with 39 reviews in the database, Rotten Tomatoes has Thor at 95% fresh... a really good number. Metacritic has only 3 reviews posted, but the Metacritic score so far is 77, which is extremely high (that would make it the best reviewed movie currently in theaters).

I am really torn about voting for Thor. On the one hand, Kenneth Branaugh seems like an excellent director to make this gods and humans story work. But, one the other hand, I think the mythology of Thor is going to be a bit of a tougher sell to domestic audiences than the stories of humans like Spiderman, Batman, Iron Man and the such. Plus, Thor has never been one of the most beloved comic book characters and seems a bit hokey at times.

I just don't know... are audiences dying to see this film? I don't really get that impression. The competition for Top 5 is going to be so tough this year with so many established franchises going up against each other... I am still torn.

--Jason "if it had a bigger name than Chris Hemsworth..." Evans

Every year I talk about what kind of boxoffice haul it will take to make the Top 5. Looking at the past is sometimes a good indication of the future.

In 2010, the threshold was $250 million dollars in ticket sales. Despicable Me was our #5 film and it ended up with $251 million. The #6 film was Shrek Forever After at $238 mil.

In 2009, Star Trek's $257 million came in at #5. But there was a huge gap to #6. Ice Age, Dawn of the Dinosaurs was our runner up with #196 million.

In 2008, WALL*E's $228 million took the #5 spot with Kung Fu Panda's $215 mil just a shade behind.

In 2007, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix came in 5th with $292 million. It was well ahead of the #6 film, The Bourne Ultimatum at $227 million.

So, what will it take this year? With ticket price inflation and almost everything coming out in 3D as well as 2D, all signs point to a very big figure. I won't be shocked to see us break the $300 million mark...

...but there is something else to consider. The competition is intense this summer, with established franchises hitting theaters almost every week. It is going to be a real challenge for most of these films to stay in the public consciousness for more than a week or two. We may seem lots of $80-$120 million opening weekends from films that are barely in theaters a few weeks later.

--Jason "just food for thought" Evans