MBB: Duke v Clemson (Tue 1/14, 7:00 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread
It is a new era of college basketball, my friends. The Clemson Tigers will be coming home to celebrate their first victory in Chapel Hill after 93 years of futility. And on Tuesday night, less than 24 hours after the football team attempts to defend their national title, the basketball team will host the Blue Devils at Littlejohn Coliseum. Will the mood be one of jubilation or more of a hangover?
Clemson is coming off an important win that, if nothing else works out this year, will serve as the high water mark on a season that is otherwise looking like another see-saw affair. In fact, Clemson will be looking to secure the Triangle Trifecta after consecutive wins over NC State and UNC. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils might be peaking ahead to a Saturday night showdown with Louisville back in Durham. That game will feature the College GameDay crew outside of Cameron Indoor Stadium. Will Duke walk into a trap in Clemson?
The most dangerous tiger this year is JR F Aamir Simms (6'8" 250 lbs), who leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and is second on the team in assists. He's been playing very well of late, averaging nearly 18 points, 7 rebounds, a tick under 3 assists, and a tick over a steal and block per game in the past 6 games. Simms presents an interesting matchup for Duke in that he has the size and heft to bang with about anyone but can and will step out to shoot the 3 with accuracy. He leads the Tigers in 3-point shooting and is hitting over 50% in the last 6 games from distance. Brad Brownell is not playing a deep rotation this year and relies on Simms for a lot of the offense and rebounding. Putting pressure on Simms to defend without fouling will be an important factor for the Blue Devils.
Clemson is ok on offense. They take a lot of 3's but do not make them at a good rate, ranking in the bottom half of teams in 3-point percentage in spite of their prolific 3-point shooting rate, which is 25th-most in the nation. The offense could really use a point guard. They do not have one and opt to share the ball-handling and distributing responsibilities. Look for Duke to apply pressure early and often. Even without a traditional PG, the Tigers do not turn the ball over that much. The Tigers's defense has a lot of teeth. They are good at generating turnovers, forcing bad shots, limiting offensive rebounds, and generally being a pest. And they don't send teams to the free throw line that often, either. Teams are opting to shoot over the interior defense rather than take the ball inside this year. About 45% of opponent shots are coming from beyond the arc this year, one of the highest rates in the nation. Duke will have to shoot the ball well from 3 in this one.
Besides Simms, the Tigers employ a mix of athletic but not particularly skilled guards and wings. FR G Al-Amir Dawes sees a lot of time on the court but has had a lot of freshman struggles. Other guards include 6'5" SO John Newman III, 6'6" SR Tevin Mack, 6'4" SR Curran Scott, and 6'4" JR Clyde Trapp. Trapp missed the first half of the season but has inserted himself into the starting lineup now after playing the past 5 games. None of these players have stood out for consistent performance, although Mack has been solid. Up front, Clemson employs a couple of sophomore forwards, both about 6'8" and between 200 and 215 pounds apiece. They are Tyson Hunter and Khavon Moore. Moore was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school but has yet to establish himself much in the college game. In 3-5 minute spurts, Brownell will also play SO C Trey Jemsion (7'0" 250 lbs) to do tall man things like shoot the ball near the basket and block a shot.
The Tigers are much better on defense than on offense. From a scoring perspective, they are just so-so. It's a collective effort after Simms. Containing Simms is the key to this one. I expect to see Duke put pressure on the interior with Carey getting a lot of early touches. If Carey is having trouble guarding Simms, we could see a lot of Javin and Jack lineups. On offense, Duke will look to continue its hot shooting. Duke is not one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the country, although the Blue Devils attempt relatively few jumpers per game. Where life could get tough is on the offensive boards. Duke is one of the best teams on the offensive glass while Clemson is pretty good at cleaning up opponent misses. If the Blue Devils struggle to collect their own missed shots, the game could get too close for comfort. My hope is that Clemson has a hangover after the big OT win over UNC while Duke does not look ahead to Saturday night.
