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I think NashvilleDevil is looking really good right about now...Quote:
Originally Posted by BD80
Of course, Transformers could suck so bad that no one goes to see it... in my dreams!
-Jason "I've been itching to pick Godzilla all spring... shoulda pulled the trigger on it (though I doubt I would have dropped Spidey from my list, probably would have dropped Cap" Evans
Jason,Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonEvans
I thought I was the one who picked Godzilla ... and Nashville Devil picked Guardians?
I only bring this up because this is the first time I've ever been in contention for one of these polls (and I've entered them all). I've always let me own prejudices spoil my choices. This time I swallowed by own interest to vote for trash like Transformers ... if I were to lose because this public finally got tired of that awful series, I would be a very happy loser.
PS I've got to admit that personally, the trailers for Guardians look better than the Godzilla trailers ... and that's coming from someone who actually liked the Matthew Broderick Godzilla (understanding that it was a bad movie -- a classic guilty pleasure). I also think the original Japanese Godzilla (not the Raymond Burr Americanized version) is one of the most significant movies of the 20th Century.
You picked Godzilla and the way the promotion for that movie is going I am regretting not picking it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Olympic Fan
Jason is better at projecting but I do not think that was the 2nd weekend numbers needed by Spider-Man to make the top 5. After two weekends Captain America was at $158 million and Spidey is currently at $147 million. With Godzilla opening this weekend I think Spidey will be fortunate to get to $220 million. Neighbors may be the raunchy comedy of the summer, like Jason said these type of movies have legs.
Rotten Tomatoes agrees with you regarding Spidy 2 vs. Cap America 2 -- suggesting that Spidey is running significantly behind Cap. They do estimate that Spidy finishes at $210-220 million (making it the lowest grossing Spidy film ever, despite the highest prices) ... probably not good enough for our purposes.Quote:
Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil
The track on Neighbors is interesting. In the first place, its opening weekend was the second-best ever ($51.1 million) for an R-rated summer comedy (trailing only Ted). But RT reported that it was drawing disappointing CinamaScore of B and they wonder if it has legs. Even if it does, its opening is probably not going to propel it into the top 5:
http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/neig...1_from_spidey/
The CinemaScore score of B is really, really bad news for Neighbors.
I saw it, and that's about what I would give it as well. It was good. Had its moments. Made me laugh a few times, but it was too long, way too formulaic, pretty unbelievable at parts, and the greatest gag in the film (that happened 4 times) was something that absolutely could never happen (though it did make me laugh). The real issue is that the movie couldn't decide what it wanted to be. Was it a story about 30 somethings struggling with being parents and how that impacts your life? Was it a story about older people wanting to feel young again? Was it a story about college kids facing the fact that once they graduate everything changes? Was it a fraternity riff? Was it about the struggle to define true friendship in trust while in a fraternity? Just tried to do too much. Again, I liked it, but there's no way I would go see it again, and I wouldn't strongly encourage it to many of my friends (would say, wait to rent it or watch it on HBO).
Spiderman I'm still confused about. Thought it was good. Really surprised that it's now almost certainly looking at less than Captain America 2, which I thought was worse.
Those of you congratulating yourselves on getting the top 5 correct (with either Godzilla or Guardians), I would caution. A Million Ways to Die could still make the top 5. So could Apes, or Jupiter Rising. There is plenty of time for a sleeper to sneak in. And I'm still not convinced on X-Men Days of Future Past. The X-Men First Class was an excellent movie, and it didn't break $200M. Maybe a ton of people have watched it on cable and now want to see it, but I'm not sure. I trust JE on his comments about early buzz, but we'll have to see.
I am, however, beginning to think that Spidey 2 won't make the Top 5, and I thought it was an absolute sure thing, as did 95% of us.
I've seen everything from $210 mil to $235 mil as a predicted final total for Spidey 2. Prior to it opening, I would have bet anyone it would make $250 mil so this has to be seen as a disappointment. If it gets to $230+ then I think it will make the top 5, but $215 or $220 may not get it there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Udaman
Of course, we have no way of knowing what will be the contenders that could knock it out.
I am loving the Million Ways to Die in the West trailers and they had everyone rolling in the aisles when I saw Neighbors, but this feels like a summer with a lot of strong raunchy comedies (Neighbors, Tammy, 22 Jump Street) and I have to wonder if any of them will capture the public attention for long enough to become a $200+ mill hit. I think Million Ways is a lot more likely to make like $120-$150 mil than it is to make $200 mil.
The early reviews for Godzilla are strong, but not overwhelmingly positive and I think a monster movie has a tough road to get to $220+ million. I mean, the critics just raved about Pacific Rim and it only managed to make $101 million. There is no way a Godzilla movie can be a hit across multiple demographic groups (women and older adults are not going to go see it) unless you have a big name star or director attached. Even with good reviews and Brad Pitt, World War Z only made $201 million last summer and did not crack our Top 5. Most initial estimates are that Godzilla is going to do about a $75 mil opening this week. It will need strong legs to get to $230 mil if it opens below $80 mil.
So, the bottom line about Spidey is that we would be foolish to write it off at this point. While it is doing worse than expected, I still think it has a very good chance to be in our Top 5 of summer.
-Jason "trust me on one thing -- XMen:DOFP is going to be huge. It will open north of $100 million and will make $250+ mil" Evans
Does anyone think there is a movie that will make $300 million this summer? My guess would be Transformers because the previous three hit that mark. Reading through this thread, $250 million-$275 million seems to be the ceiling for the contenders.
Hollywood Stock Exchange doesn't seem to think so. The highest priced film this summer is XMen 5 at $239 million (projected boxcoffice through first three weekends of release). If it is at $239 mil after three weekends, it probably ends up in the $280-$290 mil kind of range. They project Transformers to be at $229 mil after three weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil
-Jason "something will break out and hit $300 mil, but I am not sure what it will be -- I'd put my money on XMen or HTTYDragon 2" Evans
as one of those getting excited by the prospects of being in contention, believe me, I'm not already congratulating myself on getting the top 5 correct. A long, LONG way to go. Here's what I AM counting on: I feel confident that Cap'n American will make it ... and I feel certain that the Tranformers (which I hate) will make it. And I trust Jason's prediction that X-Men will make it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Udaman
My biggest concern: Godzilla ... I didn't love the preview. And I'm not sold that How To Train Your Dragon 2 will be a $250 million film -- I only picked it because there is almost always a kiddie flick in the top 5 and that's easily the best candidate.
And Spidey still worries me ... the early reports that it's falling short are good, but even $220 million COULD be Top 5.
Could be famous last words, but I have no fear that A Million Ways to Die in the West will top $200 million. And little fear of Jupiter Rising. Neither will touch Spidey ... The Apes could do it.
I'm feeling good about my picks, but not celebrating just yet ...
IMO, Captain, HTTYD2, and Transformers are the three locks at this point. That leaves two. I agree that XMen is probably a good bet, but I don't think it's a lock. I think there are 4 or 5 films with realistic chances for those last two slots.
I am seeing estimates that Godzilla is going to make $65-$75 million. To me that does not bode well for its top 5 chances especially with X-Men coming out next week.
All that matters is the legs. Can it hold up over time or does 60% of the audience flee every weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil
I saw it 4 days ago and I suspect it will not hold up well enough to be in the top 5. It is a bit too much of a "genre" flick to stretch across multiple demographics. It was good, but not great and really suffered from a wooden lead actor as well as a plot that had me scratching my head several times (which is a bad thing as I want to remain locked into the magic of the movie, not constantly stepping back to ask questions about what is going on). Anyway, while I think the opening will be in the $70-80 mill range, I think it won't have the legs to get to $220 mil (which is where I suspect Spidey 2 will end up as the baseline to be in our top 5). I think Godzilla will end up around $185-$200 million.
I will add that there is a scene/moment towards the end of the movie that brought the entire theater to their feet in applause -- one of the best "kill shots" in cinematic history!!
-Jason "we will know a lot more in a couple days when we have a Cinemascore on it" Evans
Hmmmm... I may have written the big fella off too soon.
The overnight screening numbers are in and they came in at $9.3 million. Most folks in Hollywood had expected more like 6.5-7.5 million. Here are some recent comparison numbers of Thursday late-night numbers:
Catching Fire - $25.3 mil
Man of Steel - $21 mil
Iron Man 3 - $15.6 mil
Cap 2 - $10.2 mil
Godzilla - $9.3 mil
Hobbit 2 - $8.8 mil
Spidey 2 - $8.7 mil
Thor 2 - $7.1 mil
Pacific Rim - $3.6 mil
This is not a complete list, obviously, but shows some similar kind of films all released in the past year (reducing the impact of ticket price inflation on the numbers). Given that list, the $9.3 mil start is really, really strong for Godzilla.
Still, no one is expecting it to maintain that lead on Spidey and pull in over $90 mil this weekend. Most analysts still seem to think that we are looking at a start in the mid-70s. If it touches $80 mil, that will be a strong sign. Less than $70 mil would be a real problem in terms of it reaching the Top 5.
-Jason "anyone see it last night and want to talk about it?" Evans
Where's your review?Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonEvans
I hear the main character really chews up the scenery.Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonEvans
It looks like everybody underestimated the big guy. Friday night box office numbers topped $38.5 million (the biggest single-day box office of the year) and projections now have Godzilla earning between $93-98 million this weekend:Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonEvans
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmen...ould-top-100m/
It had a better first Friday number than Spidy or Cap'n America. Of course it's early and we'll have to see if the big rush is sustained. But it looks like the King of Monsters is going to stomp into our top five.
(Now I have to sweat How to Train Your Dragon 2)
The opening weekend number for Godzilla appears to be $93.2 million. That's better than Spidey ($91.6 mil) though not quite as good as Cap 2 ($95.0 mil). It got a B+ Cinemascore, which is good, but not great. I still wonder how well it will do outside the fanboy world. Next weekend will be a big test.
But there is no question Godzilla is now a very strong contender, very likely to earn more money than Spidey. Is there anyone who had Godzilla but not Spidey in their top 5?
-Jason "I gave a lot of thought toward picking Godzilla, but there is almost no chance I would have dropped Spidey to put the big fella in" Evans
That would be me (everybody else who picked Godzilla also picked Spiderman) ... Feel good about Godzilla and Cap'n America ... I'm confident about X-Men and Transformers ... My biggest worry right now is whether How to Train Your Dragon can top $200 million (which it will need to do to top Spidey).Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonEvans
Excuse me if it sounds like I'm boasting or counting my chickens -- but I've entered every contest we've had without ever winning (I've gotten 4 of 5 a couple of times). I'm so juiced to be in contention for a change that I can't help myself.
Olympic - there is zero doubt (zero) in my mind that HTTYD2 will be in the top 5. Zero. Only kids movie (really) and huge buzz from kids. Don't let that movie make your nervous.