Originally Posted by
tommy
You don't have to be pretty sure. The evidence is already there and continuing to pile up.
Of the 30 kids rated #30 through #59 in the 2020 RSCI, here's how it breaks down. Four of them never played in college at all, so it's a group of 26, not 30. Of those 26 who played as freshmen this past year, seven have already announced they're transferring, four are going to the draft, and 15 haven't indicated that they're going to transfer or declare, at least not yet, so let's consider them as staying for their sophomore years at the school at which they started. So 11 of 26 are gone from the program. That's 42% of recruits in this range, and unfortunately it includes both Jaemyn and Henry. 58% appear (at least now) to be staying for a second year. Even if you take the guys declaring for the draft out of the mix, still you'd have 7 of the remaining 22 transferring, which is 32%.
Your assertion was that guys in this range wouldn't wait around until their junior years at the school at which they started their careers. 42% of them didn't even make it to their sophomore years, though I guess leaving before their sophomore years does in a way constitute not waiting until their junior years.
A bit surprisingly, though, there does not appear to be much of a difference in minutes played for the transferring group vs. the "staying" group? The 15 guys in the "staying" group averaged 15.7 minutes per game as frosh. If you take UNC's Puff Johnson out of the mix because he was injured basically the whole year, the remaining 14 averaged 16.5 mpg. Eleven of the 14 averaged at least 10 mpg.
The seven who have already announced they're transferring averaged 14 mpg, so only 2 mpg less than the guys who stayed. Four of the seven averaged 20 mpg or more. Jaemyn averaged 12 mpg and Henry 5.