Duke in ACC Tournament and NCAA Tournament -- just the facts
Here are Duke's stats from the last 10 ACC Tournaments:
year/seed/expected exit round from seeding/actual exit round/+/- or even achievement
2005/3 seed/3rd round/4th round champs/+1
2006/1 seed/4th round/4th round champs/even
2007/7 seed/2nd round/1st round/-1
2008/2 seed/3rd round/3rd round/+1
2009/3 seed/3rd round/4th round champs/+1
2010/1 seed/4th round/4th round champs/even
2011/2 seed/4th round/4th round champs/even
2012/2 seed/4th round/3rd round/-1
2013/2 seed/4th round/2nd round/-2
2014/3 seed/third round/4th round lost/+1
In the past 10 ACC tournaments ...
4 times Duke has outperformed seeding (2005, 2008, 2009, 2014)
3 times it has performed to seeding (2006, 2010, 2011)
3 times it has failed to perform to seeding (2007, 2012, 2013).
Only 1 time has Duke failed to perform to seeding by two rounds (2013)
In sum: 70% of the last 10 ACC tournaments Duke has performed at, or exceeded its seeding. 5 championships. Only 1 time has it failed to perform to seeding by two rounds.
Here are Duke's stats from the last 10 NCAA tournaments:
year/seed/expected exit round from seeding/actual exit round/+/- or even achievement
2005/1 seed/5th round/3rd round/-2
2006/1 seed/5th round/3rd round/-2
2007/6 seed/2nd round/first round/-1
2008/2 seed/4th round/2nd round/-2
2009/2 seed/4th round/3rd round/-1
2010/1 seed/5th round/champs/+1
2011/1 seed/5th round/third round/-2
2012/2 seed/4th round/first round/-3
2013/2 seed/4th round/fourth round/even
2014/3 seed/third round/first round/-2
1 time Duke has outperformed seeding (2010)
1 time Duke has performed to seeding (2013)
8 times Duke has failed to perform to seeding (05,06,07,08,09,11,12,14)
6 of these 8 times Duke has failed to perform to seeding by two or more rounds (05,06,08,11,12,14)
In sum: In the last 10 NCAA tournaments, only 20% of the time has Duke performed at, or exceeded, seeding. 1 National Championship. 80% of the time it has failed to perform to seeding. 60% of these 10 years it has failed to perform to seeding by two or more rounds
Though my affection for Duke basketball doesn't vary from the ACC tournament to the NCAAs, over the past ten years Duke's performance to seeding varies wildly from the ACC tournament to the NCAAs. Furthermore, with the exception of 2010, for whatever the reasons, Duke has underperformed to seeding in the NCAAs for the past decade.
I'm grateful for this great year and proud to be a Duke fan. Hope reigns eternal for the next campaign.
Early Departures and Injuries
I believe are the cause(s).