4/13/2019 - Arkansas Derby, Lexington Stakes
Folks,
Tomorrow is the last big chance for horses to move up in the points race, or to get some needed conditioning, towards the Kentucky Derby (not thinking about the Derby Trial which is usually a week before the Derby).
The horse that is #20 into the KY Derby has 19 points. There are a slew (pun intended) of horses that are racing tomorrow that are below 19 points, including: Anothertwistafate, Sueno, Harvey Wallbanger, Improbable, Six Shooter, Galilean, Gray Attempt, Zenden, Roiland, Knicks Go, and Country House. Plus others with just above 19 points who will fall below the line once points are distributed, like Omaha Beach. And horses with no points at all.
In the Arkansas Derby, Improbable needed the last race, but Long Range Toddy won the Rebel with a big kick. Omaha Beach just beat Game Winner, who came up short again in his last time out in the Santa Anita Derby (seconditis in his second year). There will be a lot of horses going for it in this intriguing race. I would think a Omaha Beach/Improbable/Long Range Toddy Triple box would be fun here. With Galilean as a possible spoiler.
Note that there is a chance of a sloppy track. Omaha Beach shows that he steps up in the slop. Best hold your bets till late!
In the Lexington, Anothertwistafate looks like a tough horse. In the absence of speed in the race, he might just take the lead. Several of these horses are stalkers (like Anothertwistafate), but he has the best numbers. Shang may be tough from the 1 hole, with top jockey Irad Ortiz.
Larry
DevilHorse