2019 ACC Picking Contest (Degenerate Gamblers Rejoice!!)

Ok, you all should know how this works by now. You go to Covers.com, you sign up and you join our contest. Then you make picks in units of 100-500 and we see who is best at picking games.

You are only allowed to pick ACC games. I swear, if anyone picks a game that does not involve 2 ACC teams, I'm just gonna boot them from the contest. They will be out. No exceptions. We have done this enough so that folks should know the rules.

Contest Name: DBR 2019 ACC Hoops picking contest
Access Password: GoDuke
Start Date: Dec 31 2018
End Date: Mar 19 2019
Click Here To Join: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePo...6-a9c401230d85

-Jason "any questions?" Evans

Reminder to folks to sign up and start picking games! The first contest you can wager upon is today (Jan 1), the Va Tech Notre Dame game.

-Jason "I love VT, but 10.5 is a lot of points for a ND game" Evans

Thanks, Jason.

Are we ending the ACC non-conference contest and declaring a winner, or do you want us to make bets in both contests because of the overlap?

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I swear, if anyone picks a game that does not involve 2 ACC teams, I'm just gonna boot them from the contest. They will be out. No exceptions. We have done this enough so that folks should know the rules.

-Jason "any questions?" Evans

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So you're saying it's OK if I pick tonight's Marquette v. St. John's game? :cool:

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Thanks, Jason.

Are we ending the ACC non-conference contest and declaring a winner, or do you want us to make bets in both contests because of the overlap?

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Please no

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Originally Posted by Rich

So you're saying it's OK if I pick tonight's Marquette v. St. John's game? :cool:

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Invoking the Wojo proximity principle, that should count. 😳😊

After completely flaming out in the pre-season match, I'm ready to defend my Two-Time ACC Crown. Hopefully, Luck will strike a third time. :cool:

Are Notre Dame and Virginia Tech really ACC schools?

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Thanks, Jason.

Are we ending the ACC non-conference contest and declaring a winner, or do you want us to make bets in both contests because of the overlap?

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The non-conference contest should automatically close this week or next. Who is leading in the standings right now?

I dipped my toe in with a 100 point wager today...I haven't spent a lot of time looking around the contest site yet....can you see other peoples' wagers in real time?

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

The non-conference contest should automatically close this week or next. Who is leading in the standings right now?

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Me, by a pretty healthy margin if you don't count contestants that owe money (for making illegal bets). Since the ACC regular season has started, I was just hoping to be declared the winner of the ACC preseason contest and receive my props so I don't have to keep my eye on that contest for the next week or so.

That said, I will obey the rulings of Sportsbook Manager Jason Evans so I can keep making wagers at his sportsbook. It's been a profitable relationship for me.

I'll keep my eye on that contest, and in a week's time, the results should likely (but not guaranteed) be the same.

how is someone already 2-0 with a +1000 in the ACC Reg Season contest? Has there been a second game I don't know about?

EDIT: ah, never mind...I see Fish went 500 on VT and got the O/U right. Nice thousand point game...

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

how is someone already 2-0 with a +1000 in the ACC Reg Season contest? Has there been a second game I don't know about?

EDIT: ah, never mind...I see Fish went 500 on VT and got the O/U right. Nice thousand point game...

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No worries, I can lose faster than I can win ...

Don't forget to place your bets on Harvard at anti-Harvard today.

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Originally Posted by thedukelamere

Don't forget to place your bets on Harvard at anti-Harvard today.

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I wouldn't do that:

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I swear, if anyone picks a game that does not involve 2 ACC teams, I'm just gonna boot them from the contest. They will be out. No exceptions. We have done this enough so that folks should know the rules.

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Originally Posted by thedukelamere

Don't forget to place your bets on Harvard at anti-Harvard today.

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Oh no, you put those bets in. Pray that you have a losing day so you can continue in this contest.

Always read the rules beforehand, my friend.

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Originally Posted by thedukelamere

Don't forget to place your bets on Harvard at anti-Harvard today.

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DUDE!!!! Are you kidding me?!?! Your first wagers and you bet on 3 non-ACC games.

Sigh...

I have asked the Cover folks to remove you from the pool. But, because I really think this was an innocent mistake and I like DukeLamere, once they kick you out I will allow you to re-join. You must skip the next 2 weeks of games as punishment for your bad deeds. If you re-join, you will do so on 1/16.

-Jason "this might actually be a benefit to you if you were going to pick games wrong this weekend" Evans

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

DUDE!!!! Are you kidding me?!?! Your first wagers and you bet on 3 non-ACC games.

Sigh...

I have asked the Cover folks to remove you from the pool. But, because I really think this was an innocent mistake and I like DukeLamere, once they kick you out I will allow you to re-join. You must skip the next 2 weeks of games as punishment for your bad deeds. If you re-join, you will do so on 1/16.

-Jason "this might actually be a benefit to you if you were going to pick games wrong this weekend" Evans

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I'm self banishing myself. My illiteracy has literally been confined to these degenerate gamblers threads, so the Man upstairs must be trying to tell me something. Ymm, Beer is clearly more my speed!

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Originally Posted by thedukelamere

Ymm, Beer is clearly more my speed!

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Yeah, well, devildeac has way fewer rules than JasonEvans, and Jason only has one. ;)

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Originally Posted by Tripping William

Yeah, well, devildeac has way fewer rules than JasonEvans, and Jason only has one. ;)

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The first rule of JasonEvans is, don’t talk about JasonEvans.

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Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

The first rule of JasonEvans is, don’t talk about JasonEvans.

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JasonEvans who?

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Originally Posted by NYBri

JasonEvans who?

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Exactly.

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Originally Posted by NYBri

JasonEvans who?

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That would be Jason "Who the heck is Jason Evans anyway" Evans...

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Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

The first rule of JasonEvans is, don’t talk about JasonEvans.

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I'm partial to the seventh rule: JasonEvans will go on as long as he has to.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I'm partial to the seventh rule: JasonEvans will go on as long as he has to has to has to has to has to.

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FIFY

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I'm partial to the seventh rule: JasonEvans will go on as long as he has to.

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Originally Posted by Indoor66

FIFY

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That would be "JasonandonEvans."

The O/U for NC State v Miami is at 155.5. Did Miami stop playing defense this year?

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Originally Posted by Fish80

The O/U for NC State v Miami is at 155.5. Did Miami stop playing defense this year?

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You are aware that NCSU is averaging almost 90 points per game this season, right? They trail only Gonzaga, Duke, and UNC in PPG (4th in the nation, 3rd in the triangle). Miami scores a fairly robust 77+ ppg. If they both hit their averages, we are talking 167 points.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

You are aware that NCSU is averaging almost 90 points per game this season, right? They trail only Gonzaga, Duke, and UNC in PPG (4th in the nation, 3rd in the triangle). Miami scores a fairly robust 77+ ppg. If they both hit their averages, we are talking 167 points.

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Their scoring averages this year, NCSU's and Miami's, are skewed by the cupcake factor.

Man, that game played out nothing like I expected. Happy to get the split on NCSU and under. Vig never tasted so good.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Man, that game played out nothing like I expected. Happy to get the split on NCSU and under. Vig never tasted so good.

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I question the motives of the person who posted this week's schedule. He/she listed Miami first so I assumed State was the home team...verbs be damned, I generally skip em. What idiot bets State to win on the road, much less cover? Turns out I did. The moral? Sometimes it pays not to read.

The cupcake theory is disproven. Neither team plays any defense. Their lack cost me $550 dothrackian drachma. I picked up 500 on the wolves covering.

Only the second game in, and I violated my own rule: early season offense is better than early season defense.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

You are aware that NCSU is averaging almost 90 points per game this season, right? They trail only Gonzaga, Duke, and UNC in PPG (4th in the nation, 3rd in the triangle). Miami scores a fairly robust 77+ ppg. If they both hit their averages, we are talking 167 points.

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I said 167... the game actually went to 169. I was sooooo wrong ;)

Just went to the site, wanted to register my Duke Clemson wagers before the lines changed...and I was only able to see where to bet on today's games. When will the Saturday picks be available?

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

Just went to the site, wanted to register my Duke Clemson wagers before the lines changed...and I was only able to see where to bet on today's games. When will the Saturday picks be available?

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They are not usually available until the day of the game, and even at that, the game listings come in dribs and drabs.

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

Just went to the site, wanted to register my Duke Clemson wagers before the lines changed...and I was only able to see where to bet on today's games. When will the Saturday picks be available?

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What lines? As of the time of this post, I don't see any sportsbook (Vegas or online) that have the lines up for college basketball.

Keep in mind, when people talk about the lines on DBR (e.g. the "This Week in the ACC" thread), they are often talking about kenpom projections.

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Originally Posted by rasputin

They are not usually available until the day of the game, and even at that, the game listings come in dribs and drabs.

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This was true in the non-conference season, but during conference season, the lines will usually be out on Covers in the (late) evening the day before.

Usually the real sportsbooks release the college basketball lines between 5 to 9pm the day before, and then Covers uses those lines for their contests after a short delay (but usually same day) from when the real books release.

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Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

That would be "JasonandonEvans."

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You can try the Macaulay Culkin angle and go meta with Jason "Jason Evans" Evans.

From boingboing.net

Macaulay Culkin's middle name is currently "Carson." But, starting in 2019, it will be "Macaulay Culkin," as in Macaulay 'Macaulay Culkin' Culkin.

The Home Alone actor has been polling his fans on what his new middle name should be. The other choices were "Shark Week," "Kieran" (his younger brother's name), "TheMcRibisBack," and "Publicity Stunt." Ultimately his fans went with the meta choice of his own first and last name.

On Christmas day he made the big announcement.

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Originally Posted by CameronBlue

You can try the Macaulay Culkin angle and go meta with Jason "Jason Evans" Evans.

From boingboing.net

Macaulay Culkin's middle name is currently "Carson." But, starting in 2019, it will be "Macaulay Culkin," as in Macaulay 'Macaulay Culkin' Culkin.

The Home Alone actor has been polling his fans on what his new middle name should be. The other choices were "Shark Week," "Kieran" (his younger brother's name), "TheMcRibisBack," and "Publicity Stunt." Ultimately his fans went with the meta choice of his own first and last name.

On Christmas day he made the big announcement.

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Beats "Boaty McBoatface"

The lines are up on Covers, fyi

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

The lines are up on Covers, fyi

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I placed three $500 bets for today. One spread bet and two over/under bets:

1. Carolina (-8.5) to cover at Pitt
2. FSU at Virginia under 131
3. Clemson at Duke over 151.5

I am a rookie to this contest, and I'm a little surprised how many bets are the 500 bets. I hedge it a lot more than that...500 if I feel strongly, 100 if I'm just rolling the dice, and everything in between. But who knows, my strategy may fail and I may have to start going in with more 500 point shots. Especially if Fish has many more thousand point games...

Finally, the time has come that I can make multiple bets and actually be engaged in all the games I'm betting on. Acc play, a welcome sight.

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

I am a rookie to this contest, and I'm a little surprised how many bets are the 500 bets. I hedge it a lot more than that...500 if I feel strongly, 100 if I'm just rolling the dice, and everything in between. But who knows, my strategy may fail and I may have to start going in with more 500 point shots. Especially if Fish has many more thousand point games...

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After flaming out wildly the first year we did this (two years ago?), I decide to pull the old War Games route: the only winning move is not to play. Rather than bog up the leader board with weekly zeros, I check in at the end of the season to see how my strategy worked.

*shrugs* I'm not a full blown degenerate for this game I suppose.

Have fun, all! Keep my seat warm.

Oh man! I am completely winning the race to the bottom with a 1-5 morning session and -900 on the day for my efforts. Missed one of the o/u by 1 pt (as if that would have made a difference! Completely in last place already.

GT looks poised to get back 400 of it for me with the over and -7.5. Over already a win and GT is up 11 with 0:54 remaining.

I am really, really bad at this.

I was robbed! 10:30 last night I submitted a boatload of picks. Covers ignored me. Of course, system error. No way I did anything wrong at 10:30 on a Friday night. 😬

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

Oh man! I am completely winning the race to the bottom with a 1-5 morning session and -900 on the day for my efforts. Missed one of the o/u by 1 pt (as if that would have made a difference! Completely in last place already.

GT looks poised to get back 400 of it for me with the over and -7.5. Over already a win and GT is up 11 with 0:54 remaining.

I am really, really bad at this.

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And Jason "I am just as bad at this as is BandAlum83" Evans shoves past me on his way to the basement!

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Originally Posted by Fish80

I was robbed! 10:30 last night I submitted a boatload of picks. Covers ignored me. Of course, system error. No way I did anything wrong at 10:30 on a Friday night. 😬

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I shoulda been so lucky...I totally misread the tea leaves on Cheat-Pitt...so I deserved that pain...but I had the other games nailed, and while I won them all against the spread, lost the two OU's by a point each basically. Neither ND nor BC managed to score anything in the final minute and a half...against defenses that were not going to risk a foul. With 2 minutes to go, I thought I was golden. Uh, no....revenge of the gamblin gods!!!!!

Wow, was up over 1,000 but FSU’s stinker really tanked me. Need the Devils to cover and hit the over, or it’s gonna be ugly.

I have Clemson +16, and over 151.5.

I feel pretty good about the over, but not so sure Duke won’t cover.

What do y’all have?

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

What do y’all have?

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I have over 151.5 points.

Virginia plays ugly. Sheesh.

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I have over 151.5 points.

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VRANK SAVED US!

(3 ACC games were almost spot on the OU line today)

I vote for ending the contest now.

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Originally Posted by Rich

I vote for ending the contest now.

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Heck, the previous contest doesn't even end until Monday :-).

Only one game today, Miami v Louisville. O/U at 142.5.

Did Miami stop playing defense? 😁

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Originally Posted by Rich

I vote for ending the contest now.

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I'm with you! 4-0, +2000, 2nd Place...pretty easy to go down from here. ;)

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Only one game today, Miami v Louisville. O/U at 142.5.

Did Miami stop playing defense? 😁

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o/u now at 138.5, both teams are pushing 80 pts a game. I took the over on that pretty happily.

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Originally Posted by brlftz

o/u now at 138.5, both teams are pushing 80 pts a game. I took the over on that pretty happily.

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I got in on the over at 136.

Is there something going on we don’t know about?

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Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

Have fun, all! Keep my seat warm.

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Dude, I'd have to climb a ladder now to reach your seat....yesterday I just missed the zeitgeist of two games badly...then on the other four, I had rotten luck. Lost a few OUs by nothing, and as luck would have it, I lost on the 400-500 bets and won the 100-200 bets. I'm as upside down as a 72 month lease on a 94 Corolla....

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I got in on the over at 136.

Is there something going on we don’t know about?

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Guess not, they're at 112 with 11 minutes to go. Must be people were thinking they were feasting on cupcakes, forgetting that they're each still playing a not so good team tonight.

Ok, NOW can we please end this contest?

I’m happy where I am after the first week, I stink at this. Enjoying my week in the sun while it lasts.

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Guess not, they're at 112 with 11 minutes to go. Must be people were thinking they were feasting on cupcakes, forgetting that they're each still playing a not so good team tonight.

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I'm in positive territory now, and out of the basement with a +700 day!

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I'm in positive territory now, and out of the basement with a +700 day!

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Nice. That game gave me a nice 1000 internet points. What a weird line that was.

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Nice. That game gave me a nice 1000 internet points. What a weird line that was.

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I wasn't as confident on the spread so only put down 200

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Originally Posted by Rich

Ok, NOW can we please end this contest?

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This roller coaster ride has just begun. 😎

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Originally Posted by NYBri

This roller coaster ride has just begun. 😎

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Indeed...I'm a sorry 20th at the moment...probably 3 points total on some results from being in the top ten....hopefully those things even out a bit...

Lines are out. UNC/NCSU is a pick 'em with a very high 171 o/u

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Originally Posted by NYBri

This roller coaster ride has just begun. 😎

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Don’t I know it. I played last year and have no doubt my ceiling is no more than mediocrity.

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Originally Posted by thedukelamere

I'm self banishing myself. My illiteracy has literally been confined to these degenerate gamblers threads, so the Man upstairs must be trying to tell me something. Ymm, Beer is clearly more my speed!

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You'll be welcomed back with empty glasses...

;)

I'll say it again. I am really, really bad at this.

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Originally Posted by Tripping William

Yeah, well, devildeac has way fewer rules than JasonEvans, and Jason only has one. ;)

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Amazing. I'm referenced everywhere :eek:.

Next thing ya know, we'll be talking about bowling alleys in some other thread...

:rolleyes:

I really thought they were going to turn the corner with Manning as the coach and make a trip to North Carolina, murderer's row throughout the state like it was in the past for visiting ACC teams. But they are trending in the wrong direction. This is a really, really bad Wake team tonight. Their only hope is to ride on the emotional wave of being in Joel Coliseum enough to keep it close and prey to the Demon Deacon that our freshmen get timid, which hasn't happened yet on much bigger stages that Joel coliseum.

I'd be really shocked if we don't cover the -20.5.

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Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

I really thought they were going to turn the corner with Manning as the coach and make a trip to North Carolina, murderer's row throughout the state like it was in the past for visiting ACC teams. But they are trending in the wrong direction. This is a really, really bad Wake team tonight. Their only hope is to ride on the emotional wave of being in Joel Coliseum enough to keep it close and prey to the Demon Deacon that our freshmen get timid, which hasn't happened yet on much bigger stages that Joel coliseum.

I'd be really shocked if we don't cover the -20.5.

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That line seems low to me. Makes me think that Vegas knows something that I don’t. (Which is true — I avoid sports bets in real life besides the occasional pie).

It's now official. I'm the winner of the pre-conference degenerates contest. Along with my victory in the 2018 NCAA tournament degenerates contest, that's now two majors in a row for me. I'm hot. I feel like the Justin Thomas or Brooks Koepka of our degenerate tour. (Professional Gamblers Association?).

Anyway, I'm only 7th so far in the current conference-only degenerates contest, which I've always compared to the Masters tournament of our circuit. I've got work to do if I want to complete the non-calendar Triple Crown and have NYBri put a green jacket on me. Lots of work to do.

https://ae01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1UXJuK...pg_640x640.jpg

Over / Under for UNCheat v NC State is currently 171..

That’s assuming nobody plays any defense? I know they both average 89 points a game, but they are only allowing 72 and 66.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Over / Under for UNCheat v NC State is currently 171..

That’s assuming nobody plays any defense? I know they both average 89 points a game, but they are only allowing 72 and 66.

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I took State in this one at -1, not sure if it's shifted since I placed my ticket. In my mind, I've been thinking State wins by 10 or so but figured UNC would be favored so I was surprised to see State -1. Went with the Pack anyway. Other than the Gonzaga game, UNC has really struggled against any team sniffing the top 25.

I predict a State win, and possibly by double digits. Ole Roy finishes with a stat line of 1 jacket throw, 2 rage squats, and 2 unused time outs for a triple single.

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Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

I predict a State win, and possibly by double digits. Ole Roy finishes with a stat line of 1 jacket throw, 2 rage squats, and 2 unused time outs for a triple single.

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I took the Heels, but would gladly lose my fake money to see this real result.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

It's now official. I'm the winner of the pre-conference degenerates contest. Along with my victory in the 2018 NCAA tournament degenerates contest, that's now two majors in a row for me. I'm hot. I feel like the Justin Thomas or Brooks Koepka of our degenerate tour. (Professional Gamblers Association?).

Anyway, I'm only 7th so far in the current conference-only degenerates contest, which I've always compared to the Masters tournament of our circuit. I've got work to do if I want to complete the non-calendar Triple Crown and have NYBri put a green jacket on me. Lots of work to do.

https://ae01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1UXJuK...pg_640x640.jpg

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Wait! What? There's a Green Jacket in this? :cool:

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Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

I took State in this one at -1, not sure if it's shifted since I placed my ticket. In my mind, I've been thinking State wins by 10 or so but figured UNC would be favored so I was surprised to see State -1. Went with the Pack anyway. Other than the Gonzaga game, UNC has really struggled against any team sniffing the top 25.

I predict a State win, and possibly by double digits. Ole Roy finishes with a stat line of 1 jacket throw, 2 rage squats, and 2 unused time outs for a triple single.

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I'm predicting (hoping?) NC State 172, UNCheat 2.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

I'm predicting (hoping?) NC State 172, UNCheat 2.

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So . . . taking the over?

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Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

So . . . taking the over?

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By rule I don't bet on any UNCheat games, they always find a way to bollocks things up.

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

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You pretty much covered the challenges of picking these couple of games. And hey, I'm with you on some picks (involving Duke or the Cheats) - sometimes I will predict what I don't WANT to happen, figuring I'll have something to be happy abut with either result. I guess that's my Gambling Hedge Fund strategy...

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Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

That line seems low to me. Makes me think that Vegas knows something that I don’t. (Which is true — I avoid sports bets in real life besides the occasional pie).

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The problem with big lines as I see it, is that if we build an early lead and maintain it, K will go deep into the bench earlier. He will also slow the tempo some to not run up the score. When we have the second and third team in, scoring is iffy. It is why we don't hit 100 pints as often as you would think also. 20.5 might not seem like a big enough spread, but it may be just right. Clemson was 16, and we were one late 3 by Clemson from a push.

This is really hard stuff, and if this weren't a free contest, I would probably totally stay away from this game.

As it is, I took Duke at 20.5 and the over @ 158. 92-68 does not seem to be an unreasonable final score for this one.

As I said, however, I am really, really bad at this. 88-68 could also be a final score on this one!

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Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

I took State in this one at -1, not sure if it's shifted since I placed my ticket. In my mind, I've been thinking State wins by 10 or so but figured UNC would be favored so I was surprised to see State -1. Went with the Pack anyway. Other than the Gonzaga game, UNC has really struggled against any team sniffing the top 25.

I predict a State win, and possibly by double digits. Ole Roy finishes with a stat line of 1 jacket throw, 2 rage squats, and 2 unused time outs for a triple single.

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I have UNC in a pick 'em and under 171.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

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You and I seem to have the same thought process for this one. The o/u on the Duke game is a crap shoot for the reasons you sight. I took the over and Duke to cover, but only put 200 on each.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

You and I seem to have the same thought process for this one. The o/u on the Duke game is a crap shoot for the reasons you sight. I took the over and Duke to cover, but only put 200 on each.

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Yep. As I was writing my post and looking up stuff to back up my reasons for taking the under on our game, I basically talked myself into thinking I had goofed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Yep. As I was writing my post and looking up stuff to back up my reasons for taking the under on our game, I basically talked myself into thinking I had goofed.

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BTW, I do know the difference between cite and sight (and site as well). My fingers can't seem to distinguish, however.

I just want to clear the air on that :)

I think I took Duke and the over, Cheats and the under.


Still, GTHC.

They didn’t cover the over. Barely covered the spread. 😎

Let’s go State! 😎

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

They didn’t cover the over. Barely covered the spread. 😎

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##$$&##$& missed free throws . . . .

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Let’s go State! 😎

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Already down double digits

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, tough picks today.

Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.

---

Good day for me, but of COURSE state and the cheats worked together to piss me off by continuing to foul and make free throws after the game was over to hit the over by half a point.

Good grief, 10 stupid points in the last 28 seconds, including 2 absolutely meaningless free throws with 9 seconds left. I'm glad I didn't have real money riding on taking the under. I don't know how actual betters don't go crazy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Good grief, 10 stupid points in the last 28 seconds, including 2 absolutely meaningless free throws with 9 seconds left. I'm glad I didn't have real money riding on taking the under. I don't know how actual betters don't go crazy.

---

Tell me about it... grrrrrrrrrr.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.

---

Well done, you had that handicapped almost perfectly. IMO, taking the under for Duke/Wake was the best bet of a small card last night.

There was an 85% chance or so of seeing Coach K's over-killing stallball, and I don't know how many times we'll be able to say that for the remainder of the schedule.

Jason -- are we still doing the -$5000 and you're eliminated from the contest rule?

There is a new player or two this time, and so I figure it would be good to clarify all your rules.

Thanks, Mr. Sportsbook Manager.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Tell me about it... grrrrrrrrrr.

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The over under had been raised, and I snuck in under the wire....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Jason -- are we still doing the -$5000 and you're eliminated from the contest rule?

There is a new player or two this time, and so I figure it would be good to clarify all your rules.

Thanks, Mr. Sportsbook Manager.

---

Yup, if you hit -5k you must stop making bets as you are eliminated from the contest.

I am getting closer than I would like at -2grand. It has been a tough start to the season for me.

Yikes! I got a new formula, trying it out today. 3,000 FMU's riding on 6 different bets. Yee-ha!










FMU's = Fictitious Monetary Units a.k.a. Dothrakian Drachma

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Yikes! I got a new formula, trying it out today. 3,000 FMU's riding on 6 different bets. Yee-ha!

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I may test a new theory today too...I may simple park it and see if you can "pass me" on the way down.......because after a good first day, I've passed a lot of folks on my way down...:D

Man, lots of games today. Looking at VT/GT, before I looked at the picks page I thought, "this feels like a 72-65-ish game, let's see what the line is." LOL. 7 point spread, and o/u at 136.5. Gonna be like that with these games today.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Man, lots of games today. Looking at VT/GT, before I looked at the picks page I thought, "this feels like a 72-65-ish game, let's see what the line is." LOL. 7 point spread, and o/u at 136.5. Gonna be like that with these games today.

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Already in the past week a couple of O/Us that were one point off the actual total, or maybe even just a half point off.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

Already in the past week a couple of O/Us that were one point off the actual total, or maybe even just a half point off.

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Seriously. I don't know if it's usually like that since this is my first go around with a hoops betting contest, but in our house we've been marveling at the accuracy of these over/unders.

Edit to add: I decided to wait a while on this game to see if the line moves away from literally being my exact gut feel.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Yup, if you hit -5k you must stop making bets as you are eliminated from the contest.

I am getting closer than I would like at -2grand. It has been a tough start to the season for me.

---

Ah, so my short foray into this contest should be over tonight...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by brlftz

Seriously. I don't know if it's usually like that since this is my first go around with a hoops betting contest, but in our house we've been marveling at the accuracy of these over/unders..

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They're not always that scary accurate...the last few have been amazingly close. (there was one bad miss). And keep in mind, the odds makers don't care what actually happens...they are not predicting a margin or a point total...they are predicting a line that will attract 50% of the money each way, more or less. If they get that, they're happy.

General DBR ACC Picking Contest rule of thumb...take the under in a Virginia game. No matter how low it is, they manage to go lower. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Yikes! I got a new formula, trying it out today. 3,000 FMU's riding on 6 different bets. Yee-ha!



FMU's = Fictitious Monetary Units a.k.a. Dothrakian Drachma

---

I went crazy and upped my base betting to 300 FMUs on each bet. I bet the line and o/u on each game. That's 3,000 smackerFMUoos on the line. I'm fairly confident I won't be in positive territory by the end of the night, because have I mentioned?

I am really, really bad at this!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I am really, really bad at this!

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To quote Jason Miller "There are no experts."

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

General DBR ACC Picking Contest rule of thumb...take the under in a Virginia game. No matter how low it is, they manage to go lower. :cool:

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How low can you go? It's like the limbo, only lower. I think one time last year a UVA ACC game hit the over.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fish80

How low can you go? It's like the limbo, only lower. I think one time last year a UVA ACC game hit the over.

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They do seem just a bit more offensively minded this year, though.

-jk

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fish80

How low can you go? It's like the limbo, only lower. I think one time last year a UVA ACC game hit the over.

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Of course, I picked the over tonight, because I am really, really bad at this. But c'mon! The way Guy went off last game, and after hanging 100 on Marshal, is the over 123.5 really a bad bet?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

General DBR ACC Picking Contest rule of thumb...take the under in a Virginia game. No matter how low it is, they manage to go lower. :cool:

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My general rule of betting: stay away from over/under betting. In my mind it is a sucker bet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Indoor66

My general rule of betting: stay away from over/under betting. In my mind it is a sucker bet.

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Just out of curiosity, why do you think the O/U's are any more of a sucker bet than betting a line? I'm not arguing, just curious to your thinking.

Just my take on it. I win a lot on spreads but rarely on O/U (which I "bet" mentally when I make a sports bet.)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

Just out of curiosity, why do you think the O/U's are any more of a sucker bet than betting a line? I'm not arguing, just curious to your thinking.

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I'm with you. How can a bet that is straight forward as can be be deemed a sucker's bet? It's either over or under. No tricks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Indoor66

Just my take on it. I win a lot on spreads but rarely on O/U (which I "bet" mentally when I make a sports bet.)

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You may be right...GT and VT on pace for about 95 total points....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

General DBR ACC Picking Contest rule of thumb...take the under in a Virginia game. No matter how low it is, they manage to go lower. :cool:

---

Doesn’t look like that strategy’s gonna hold this year unless the books start raising their o/u. UVA blew tonight’s o/u off the map.

Somehow I managed to split on 10 bets tonight, so only lost -150 with the vig. Bumped me into negative territory.

So now I’m 15-15.

Maybe I’m just really, really mediocre at this.

Welp, the good news is I'm in 2nd place. The bad news is that the difference between 1st and 2nd is greater than the difference between 2nd and 10th. Excellent start to the season, Fish80!

My best pick was taking the over on BC VA - because it was absurdly low...

That said, VT GT barely broke 100 combined, shooting less than 20% from 3 and not much better than that from two. They set basketball back 40 years. This is one of those VT performances that they normally role out for a non conference game so they can embarrass the league. Clemson Cuse was a root canal too.

Meanwhile, Marquette and Creighton both hit more than 50% from three and score a zillion...

When does covers usually release the spreads for Saturday games? I'm eager to even up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

When does covers usually release the spreads for Saturday games? I'm eager to even up.

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As I prove, even is a loser :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

As I prove, even is a loser :)

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Baby steps, I'm -700 right now. 😀

Quote:

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Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey

When does covers usually release the spreads for Saturday games? I'm eager to even up.

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Hopefully within the next couple of hours. It's pretty much always in the late evening because the real sportsbooks only release the lines in the early evening around 6pm ET. I wish Covers could release their lines immediately after the real sportsbooks but it's usually the same night after a delay.

Today’s the day where it all evaporates. Should just sit it out, but where is the degeneracy in that?

I took Virginia (-6.5) and Duke (-7) to cover. $500 fake dollars on each game. I might place some O/U bets but I'm going to wait a bit and see if the lines move to favor the direction I'm leaning.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I took Virginia (-6.5) and Duke (-7) to cover. $500 fake dollars on each game. I might place some O/U bets but I'm going to wait a bit and see if the lines move to favor the direction I'm leaning.

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I'm nervous on Duke to cover at the moment...and apparently some others are too...as the line has moved down a tad. Bob's 500 point laying of the points makes me feel a little better about it. I'm thinking this could be something like the TT game...in that one, Duke covered but that looked very unlikely the entire game until the very end.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

I'm nervous on Duke to cover at the moment...and apparently some others are too...as the line has moved down a tad. Bob's 500 point laying of the points makes me feel a little better about it. I'm thinking this could be something like the TT game...in that one, Duke covered but that looked very unlikely the entire game until the very end.

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I agree with you but picked Duke to not cover this time - which, based upon my results, likely means the exact opposite will happen...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AGDukesky

I agree with you but picked Duke to not cover this time - which, based upon my results, likely means the exact opposite will happen...

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And we thank you for that. :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AGDukesky

I agree with you but picked Duke to not cover this time - which, based upon my results, likely means the exact opposite will happen...

---

I ended up picking Duke not to cover either....even when the line dropped to 7...and even with Bob's pick of Duke to cover, and Bob certainly has a long long time of honing instincts about Duke in his corner. I asked myself...what are the odds, in your deepest heart, of Duke winning this game. I thought 50-50....that was my most honest self to self assessment. So with a smallish bet, I picked Duke not to cover. And yeah, I'll be thrilled to lose that wager. I'll be pulling to lose that wager. Well, if we're up six with 3 seconds to go, maybe not...but you get the idea.

Some lousy choices on the big card today.

Being the complete degenerate I am, I bet the line and o/u on every game today with bets ranging from 200-500. If I keep to mediocrity and split, my winnings or losses will be determined by how accurate I was with my comfort level for each bet. The 500s went only to my highest confidence level bets.

All in all, I have 3,700 on the line today. Could be fun. I took Duke to cover 7.5 and the over 157 on our game.

Plenty of degenerate fun for me today!

I was leaning toward taking the Over in the Virginia - Clemson game but didn't pull the trigger. The O/U was 126 the first time I checked this morning then it dropped to 124. I was waiting to see if it would drop again but it bumped back up to 124.5 a couple of minutes before noon.

Oh well...

Nuts. I missed the noon games. I put 5 bets down on the later games.

Forty eight total points scored in the Virginia - Clemson 1st half. I'm really glad I didn't pull the trigger on the Over. The pace will probably pick up in the 2nd half but the Under looks safe in this one.

VT and GT set the game of college BB back 40 years earlier this week...UVa and Clemson trying to set it back more today. (reminder, Creighton and Marquette had 40 between them in OT...Clemson Va 48 in a full half. Sheesh). Guy is 3/5 from the arc....still only 27 at half.

Yeah, I went over 124...bitter!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I was leaning toward taking the Over in the Virginia - Clemson game but didn't pull the trigger. The O/U was 126 the first time I checked this morning then it dropped to 124. I was waiting to see if it would drop again but it bumped back up to 124.5 a couple of minutes before noon.

Oh well...

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I just checked. 3 of my bets didn’t register. The ND game and my over bet on the UVA game. I got lucky on that one, but don’t remember what I tried to do on the ND game. I think ND to cover and the over. Not sure.

For both the Cheats and Louisville....
Cheats awful after great outing in Raleigh.
Cards great after awful outing at Pitt.

I normally bet this way...I was dumb this weekend.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

For both the Cheats and Louisville...
Cheats awful after great outing in Raleigh.
Cards great after awful outing at Pitt.

I normally bet this way...I was dumb this weekend.

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I certainly don’t mind losing in my bet for UnC to cover, as long as the game doesn’t hit 159 points scored.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I certainly don’t mind losing in my bet for UnC to cover, as long as the game doesn’t hit 159 points scored.

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I need the over...but right now, the under is on pace. As for the Cheats, happy for them to lose...
I used to be pretty good at this, for money. Haven't done it in many years. Probably good if I don't get back into doing it for real...based on the early returns... Normally, in the old days, I would've been all over the regression to the mean for both teams here. I whiffed. Or so it appears.

Someday, Cam will find his shot again and Duke will blow the doors off someone. I think it might be today. We will cover.

With Virginia covering, I improve to 5-0 (+2,500) in the contest. Let's Go Duke!

That site lost my Virginia picks!!!!!

UPDATE: found the Va picks...for a few minutes, this game was neither in My Picks nor in the overall record...I guess there's a small time lapse as games go final....the disappear for a few minutes then show up in the results.

I’m looking good for 4-1 in the noon games for +1070. :)

I spoke too soon. I went 3-2. The scoring really ramped up at the end of the ncsu game. Nice comeback, but I would have like to have seen Capel get another win

His three cost me the over under.....I think I'm okay with it...:cool:

I fall to 5-1 with Duke's failure to cover. That's okay, I don't care because we won.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Someday, Cam will find his shot again and Duke will blow the doors off someone. I think it might be today. We will cover.

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Jason, any idea when that day will come when Cam finds his shot again?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Someday:

1. Cam will find his shot again.
2. Duke will blow the doors off someone.
3. I think it might be today.
4. We will cover.

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Two out of four on predictions is impressive.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

Two out of four on predictions is impressive.

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I'm really happy with the first one!

-jk

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

Two out of four on predictions is impressive.

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Yeah, I got the important ones right ;)

Arrrrrrrrrrrgh. What happened? I thought i was looking good in the miami wake game...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob Green

I fall to 5-1 with Duke's failure to cover. That's okay, I don't care because we won.

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This is why, even though I’m here in Vegas I can’t bet on Duke basketball.

I’m 0-3 so far today. Happy to sacrifice 1100 FMU’s for the Duke win!

Wins like today’s make taking losses in this contest way easier. 😎

The UNC game still hasn't cleared off the pending picks.

odd..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

The UNC game still hasn't cleared off the pending picks.

odd..

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Still that way this morning. Which is good for me, ‘cause I’m taking a double hit when it does.

Mine are all updated now. However, I did not bet on the scrambled teachers game.

I picked up a few Drachma on the GT game. Didn’t know they would win, just thought the spread was too much and took the over. Lost all my other bets. Have to tweak my formula.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Have to tweak my formula.

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Ahh, a casino owners dream: a system player...😂

In case anyone's wondering, with Zion's status in question, we're not going to get the Duke line for awhile. (FSU/Pitt is already up).

Closer to tip, even if Zion's status hasn't been announced yet, some books will put up a line anyway and quickly move it if needed later. I'm not sure Covers will react in time if that happens. Assume for now that we don't get to bet on Duke/Cuse, and be pleasantly surprised if that changes.

I'm not seeing anything on Covers yet, but the offshore bookies who don't mind taking action prior to knowing about Zion's eye have Duke -17. That is a big number considering how slow Syracuse plays.

Lines are up everywhere now, including Covers. I underestimated the books and Covers and, as mentioned, am pleasantly surprised.

The Duke/Cuse line is up. We've opened as a 16.5 pt favorite.

Given the short turnaround, unknown status of Zion, and unfamiliarity of our freshman vs the zone, I've got Cuse +16.5 and the Under. I just don't see us scoring enough to cover both of those numbers, and Cuse's O is bad.

In the other game tonight, I'm putting my full faith and credit behind Capel's Pitt resurgence. I've got a full $500 on Pitt +4.5, and then a small bet on the Under. FSU relied on too many banked 3's and other sloppy baskets in our game for me to have enough faith in their offense to get to the Over.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hingeknocker

The Duke/Cuse line is up. We've opened as a 16.5 pt favorite.

Given the short turnaround, unknown status of Zion, and unfamiliarity of our freshman vs the zone, I've got Cuse +16.5 and the Under. I just don't see us scoring enough to cover both of those numbers, and Cuse's O is bad.

In the other game tonight, I'm putting my full faith and credit behind Capel's Pitt resurgence. I've got a full $500 on Pitt +4.5, and then a small bet on the Under. FSU relied on too many banked 3's and other sloppy baskets in our game for me to have enough faith in their offense to get to the Over.

---

I'm with you on the Duke game, but took FSU to cover and the over, which was 142.5 when I placed my bet.

I have only 1,000 total at risk tonight.

I don't feel great about any of tonight's games, but a commitment to degeneracy is a commitment I'm not willing to give up on! I've got six bets tonight:

In the battle of Virginia, I just think the Cavaliers at home are too much for anyone to handle. I've got UVA -8, but went with the Under, given that both teams play good defense.

For State/Wake, it's the opposite kind of stylistic matchup. I took the Over, but do think Wake will find a way to keep it close (or State will let them hang around), so I have Wake +10.5.

And finally, I do think our friends in Chapel Hill, taking on Notre Dame, will rebound from the weekend (seriously, a 20 game score on BartTorvik.com is horrendous), so I have them -14.5, with the Over.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hingeknocker

I don't feel great about any of tonight's games, but a commitment to degeneracy is a commitment I'm not willing to give up on! I've got six bets tonight:

In the battle of Virginia, I just think the Cavaliers at home are too much for anyone to handle. I've got UVA -8, but went with the Under, given that both teams play good defense.

For State/Wake, it's the opposite kind of stylistic matchup. I took the Over, but do think Wake will find a way to keep it close (or State will let them hang around), so I have Wake +10.5.

And finally, I do think our friends in Chapel Hill, taking on Notre Dame, will rebound from the weekend (seriously, a 20 game score on BartTorvik.com is horrendous), so I have them -14.5, with the Over.

---

I made the mistake of putting my bets in last night after our game, without much thought but lots of emotion from the game. So not expecting good results tonight.

The worst kind of degenerate is a knee-jerk degenerate. And that am I.

I improved to 6-3 (+1350) by picking Virginia to cover last night.

I know my high position is short-lived, so enjoying it while I can.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

I know my high position is short-lived, so enjoying it while I can.

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Isn't this fun, though, OPK? Aren't you glad I kinda convinced you to play again?

I love the Degenerates league and all you guys who play in it.

I'm probably not going to win this particular contest, but it's my pleasure to try and to compete against you fellow degenerates!

When you're a degenerate, what's the best thing to do after a 2-4, -480 night? Make the max number of bets the very next night, risking more total money, of course!

I do feel better about tonight's games, and I'll be riding a hot team in both games. I have Louisville -10.5 over BC, along with the Over (145.0). This is the perfect game for Louisville, at home, to continue their hot streak after the weekend's dominating performance in Chapel Hill.

In the other game, I like Georgia Tech +8.0 on the road at Clemson, as well as the Under (133.0). Neither team boasts a good offense, and while I don't think Tech will necessarily win, they have showed good fight lately and I think they'll keep it close.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Isn't this fun, though, OPK? Aren't you glad I kinda convinced you to play again?

I love the Degenerates league and all you guys who play in it.

---

I think the proper term for you is what is known as "an enabler"

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hingeknocker

I have Louisville -10.5 over BC, along with the Over (145.0).

In the other game, I like Georgia Tech +8.0 on the road at Clemson, as well as the Under (133.0).

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I took BC and the points (+10.5) in the first game and the Under (133) in the second game. All the "experts" are taking BC so I followed their lead.

I'm not sure what defines an expert but I imagine the job description is something along the lines of: Get paid to make picks on a fake gambling website so we can label your picks as "expert" in order to influence dimwits like Bob Green to follow your lead.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob Green

]I'm not sure what defines an expert but I imagine the job description is something along the lines of: Get paid to make picks on a fake gambling website so we can label your picks as "expert" in order to influence dimwits like Bob Green to follow your lead.

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Try putting that on your business card. . . .

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by OldPhiKap

Try putting that on your business card. . . .

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Small type. 😂

I went 2-0 (+1000) last night to improve to 8-3 (+2350) for the contest. Those "experts" picking BC knew what they were doing as the +10.5 Eagles lost by 10 points giving me a W. :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I went 2-0 (+1000) last night to improve to 8-3 (+2350) for the contest. Those "experts" picking BC knew what they were doing as the +10.5 Eagles lost by 10 points giving me a W. :cool:

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Nice. Impressive win percentage you got going there Mr Green! 😊

Lines are out for tomorrow's games...on the contest site. Duke is -2.0 at the moment.

Over/Under is currently 140.5 for the UVa at Duke game.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

Over/Under is currently 140.5 for the UVa at Duke game.

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Seems about right. Really key to the game, can we score enough? I think we can. I think we can.

I jumped on the Over last night at 140.5 which was too soon. The O/U is falling and is 136.5 this morning. I believe this game will be played in the 70s so I'm okay but it sure would've been nice to have waited until this morning.

My going in threshold was 145 -- I told myself yesterday morning that I would bet the Over up to 145 but take the Under starting at 146. My thoughts on how many points will be scored in this game differ drastically from conventional wisdom. I say no way Duke shoots a low percentage on 3 PT FGs two games in a row. Duke 71, UVa 70 would be a great score!

I believe this is why they refer to it as gambling. :cool:

Duke is a 3.5 point favorite... that seems crazy given we have no idea whether Tre will play.

Today could be my swan song in the contest. Need a positive result!

I may be going down in flames today, 4500 FMU's on 9 different bets. I'm taking Duke and the over, thinking we can score even against the pac-man defense.

AND...for the first time in three years, I am not picking Duke to cover. :cool:

My fellow sharps in the gambling world are just sick. I can't believe they bet this up to Duke -4.

I understand it, but I just can't agree at this point. I'll have UVA +4 in this contest and hope for a small Duke win.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

AND...for the first time in three years, I am not picking Duke to cover. :cool:

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Ditto. I got it at 3.5 and think that is an insane line given that we do not know about Tre. I actually put 300 on UVA... I feel ill. I also bet the over.

-Jason "Duke 72-UVA 70... please" Evans

I’m all in today. Max bet on all games line and the o/u.

6,000 at risk.

I am a degenerate!

Forget baby’s shoes! I got a mortgage to worry about!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I jumped on the Over last night at 140.5 which was too soon. The O/U is falling and is 136.5 this morning. I believe this game will be played in the 70s so I'm okay but it sure would've been nice to have waited until this morning.

My going in threshold was 145 -- I told myself yesterday morning that I would bet the Over up to 145 but take the Under starting at 146. My thoughts on how many points will be scored in this game differ drastically from conventional wisdom. I say no way Duke shoots a low percentage on 3 PT FGs two games in a row. Duke 71, UVa 70 would be a great score!

I believe this is why they refer to it as gambling. :cool:

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I got Duke -2.0. They are at -3.5 now. That’s a big movement. Are people taking Duke because they think Tre will play? That’s a lot of movement. The o/u is down to 136 now. I got in at 139.5. The two line movements seem to be in opposition to each other.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I got Duke -2.0. They are at -3.5 now. That’s a big movement. Are people taking Duke because they think Tre will play? That’s a lot of movement. The o/u is down to 136 now. I got in at 139.5. The two line movements seem to be in opposition to each other.

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I got in over at 136.5....feel pretty good about that.

For some reason however, I thought the Cheats Miami game was in Chapel Hill....picked the cheats to cover...would not have done that. Brain cramp.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

I got in over at 136.5...feel pretty good about that.

For some reason however, I thought the Cheats Miami game was in Chapel Hill...picked the cheats to cover...would not have done that. Brain cramp.

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I knew it was in Miami, and still took UNC -7 and over 157. It’s going down to the wire on both.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I got Duke -2.0. They are at -3.5 now. That’s a big movement. Are people taking Duke because they think Tre will play? That’s a lot of movement. The o/u is down to 136 now. I got in at 139.5. The two line movements seem to be in opposition to each other.

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That's a sharp comment, my friend. I can explain it.

From what I've seen, the public is on UVA and the under, which as you know, is not in opposition to each other. In the case of the under, there is no sharp resistance to the public so the books are moving the O/U number down in response to the public. However, In the case of the public taking UVA, there is tremendous sharp action on Duke, which is why the line climbed to 4.

So, it's not the same people creating the opposite movements.

Thank you, Miami, for calling a timeout you didn’t have! It guaranteed the over and a big +1000 start to my day!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

That's a sharp comment, my friend. I can explain it.

From what I've seen, the public is on UVA and the under, which as you know, is not in opposition to each other. In the case of the under, there is no sharp resistance to the public so the books are moving the O/U number down in response to the public. However, In the case of the public taking UVA, there is tremendous sharp action on Duke, which is why the line climbed to 4.

So, it's not the same people creating the opposite movements.

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I am the ultimate Joe Public I know. Thank God I don't live in Vegas, don't sports bet online (except pies), and don't lose any real money with my sports picking prowess.

But Duke -3.5 is just a ridiculous line for this game, Tre Jones or no Tre Jones or no 100% Tre Jones who probably couldn't fully practice with the team while rehabbing? UVA is a difficult matchup for us, great on the road, and they've shown that they are not a 3.5 point underdog to anybody this year anywhere the way they are playing.

Of course Duke could win impressively in Cameron, and I really hope they do, but I just think covering 3.5 points is a bad bet.

If a sharp wants a pie, I'll be your huckleberry (or blueberry, or cherry, or apple). Friendly wager opportunity for one sharp with cajones. I get UVA +3.5. You get Duke -3.5. For a pie. I'll be rooting for you to win the bet. An impressive win for Duke tonight would be so huge I'd rather ship a pie for that than win by 1 and win a pie. But I'd be ecstatic with any Duke win.

I just think the sharps are wrong on this and am willing to put my pie where my mouth is for Joe Public. Anybody wanna play? :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

I knew it was in Miami, and still took UNC -7 and over 157. It’s going down to the wire on both.

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yeah, I got lucky...better to be lucky than good in this kind of thing...

Woo hoo! I cracked the top 10! I took a screen shot since I may drop out before the day ends and may never see it again!

Ok Pitt stop now. I’ll take a split but now the o/u is in jeopardy.

Darn. I missed th under. Now Pitt better get within 7.5 for the split

This can be so frustrating!!!!!

Cuse-Pitt beat the over by a point, which fortunately I took. The accuracy of the o/u has been crazy.

Really GATech!? 5 minutes into the game and only 8 points? Pathetic! I guess I can kiss 550 FMUs goodbye on the over!

VT is my nemesis...no matter how I pick em, they go the other way. So tonight they're hitting 50% from three...bench is 5-6 from deep.