10 Reasons Why the Duke Blue Devils Could Go Undefeated
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...efeated#page/1
This is an interesting article but the title !!! Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.
Read Justin Mc Teer's post at the end of the comments on the first page, "Here's my honest opinion. Kabongo to Duke".
Maybe Not Undefeated, But...
There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.
Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.
And one reason it is extremely unlikely . . .
I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
a) Thirty regular season games
b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.