Duke MBB's 2014 NCAAT seed
I always wanted to start a "vigil" thread, and the topic of seedings came up more than once during this week's games. Now that February is here, it seemed appropriate so I thought I'd take a shot. Earlier last week, Lunardi's bracketology had Duke as a #3 seed (trending up) in Raleigh. Jerry Palm had Duke as a #4 in Orlando (eeeew). Both will be updated this week.
Duke has 9 games left. There are 3 plus-100 RPI teams that would be gruesome losses: @BC, @GT, VT. Nothing is a given in the ACC, especially on the road, but a team expecting a #3 seed or above can't lose those games. Let's eliminate them from the discussion.
There are 3 games with teams in 50-100 RPI range: WF, MD, @WF. Again, Duke should be heavily favored, but over the years WF has been a traditional PITA above and beyond the talent level of their teams, especially in Winston-Salem. A loss at Wake wouldn't be shocking, especially if the team gets caught looking past that game to the regular season finale vs. unc three days later. A sweep would be best (duh), but splitting with Wake would require (imho) another signature win from the remaining three games.
Here are the 3 games that will get all the attention: @unc, SYR, unc. Everyone is getting all wound up for the rematch in Cameron on 2/22, but be careful what you ask for - you might get it. Anyone who expects a Duke romp needs to calm down already; let's be conservative and call it a tossup. So that leaves the home-and-home vs. the dysfunctional but still dangerous Holes (current RPI 39). Sweeping those three would be a major major achievement and put the Devils in the conversation for a #2 or #1 seed, but I think a more probable result will be 2-1 or maybe even 1-2. (I do think Duke will win at least 1 of the 2 home games). Losing all three would not be disgraceful, but would certainly wipe out any momentum and it's better just to not go there.
Therefore, probable outcomes for the 9 games:
8-1: conf 14-4, overall 25-6
7-2: conf 13-5, overall 24-7
6-3: conf 12-6, overall 23-8
If the team went into the ACCT with a 12-6 record, they might get caught in a tiebreaker logjam for the #4 seed in the ACC tournament, especially depending on how Clemson and MD finish. Any record better than that, there should be no doubt about a 2 or 3 seed in the ACCT. A win in the quarterfinals should prevent any slippage, with a chance to solidify the RPI position in the semis.
Qualitative guesses:
If Duke can reach the ACC finals with two or fewer losses only to unc or Syracuse, I'll guess that's worth a solid #2, and maybe a sniff at a #1.
If Duke can reach the ACC semis with three or four losses, and no RPI +100 losses, that should be enough for a #3 and no worse than a #4.
If Duke goes 6-3 or worse and and then loses in the first round of the ACC, then something has gone seriously wrong, and we're talking a #5.
Next, we need to step outside the Duke bubble and see what else is going on with other teams contending for those seeds. Let me 'splain. No there is too much. Let me sum up. Duke needs Clemson to finish strong and ND to be more than mostly dead for a little extra RPI boost. But first, we have to kill Count Rugen.
This may be premature but...
I like the analysis because once Duke plays 5 or 6 more games the seedings will be more clear but there will be less to discuss. So let me take a general stab at other teams in the mix.
First, the ACC is being touted as being disappointing in the eyes of the media (underrated once again) so the ACC will probably get only one #1 seed and that would be Syracuse right now. So the best Duke can hope for is a #2 seed unless they beat Syracuse twice including the ACC tournament and take Syracuse's #1 seed.
The other #1 seeds will be from the SEC (Fla), Arizona, Wichita State and SDSU. So four teams for three slots. The one that does not get a number 1 is obviously a #2. The three other #2s would be taken form this next group, Big Ten school (again considered to be the best conference), Kansas (presumably they win the Big 12), Villanova or Cincy. One of these drop to #3s and that is where Duke would likely end up.
So pay attention to the following games:
Villanova vs Creighton (this will deciede Villanova's fate);
Cincy vs Louisville (this will decide Cincy's fate);
Kansas vs Tx, OSU and Okla
Mich State at Michigan
Michigan at Iowa
Fla at Ky and at home against Ky
Ariz vs Stanford
SDSU and Whicita State have has no one left on their schedule of any consequence;