ACC Picking Contest - Degenerate Gamblers allowed!!

Ok, I finally got off my butt and started the picking contest for the ACC regular season. Just go to this link to sign up: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePo...2-a85c00dbcc0f

It is possible it will ask you for a password. If it does, the password is: GoDuke

You all should know the rules, but if you do not...

You make picks (spread or O/U) on any game involving any ACC team (even a game against a non-conference opponent). There will be games listed that do not involve ACC teams but please, DO NOT PICK THOSE GAMES!! If you pick a game that does not involve at least 1 ACC team, you will be penalized the amount you wagered by being forced to bet and lose the amount you wagered. This can be a difficult process as intentionally losing is not easy when it comes to Vegas spreads and numbers.

You can make any wager between 100 and 500 units and can make as many as 20 wagers per day. You are being given 5000 virtual units to spend so if you find you have lost more than 5000 units, you are done and cannot make any more wagers.

The contest starts right away -- with the Pitt (+17.5) - Louisville (OU 137) game tonight. It will end with the conclusion of the ACC tournament.

Who won this contest last year? Anyone recall? I know who won the ACC pre-season contest... ME!!

-Jason "if you have any questions or concerns, let me know!" Evans

Bump. It's a new contest, starting from scratch.

And a big day of ACC games tomorrow.

Yikes! I’m in last place, deep in the hole.

How does Notre Dame do without Bonzi?

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Yikes! I’m in last place, deep in the hole.

How does Notre Dame do without Bonzi?

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They are really, really good without Bonzie. You should definitely take them.

- Chillin

FSU 81, Carolina 80 failed to go over 164 so I'm in the red. It isn't a good omen to lose the first bet of the contest.

Dante's abstraction of Hell left out the level where all things related to NC State basketball are consigned. Bet against the natural laws of the universe not just at your peril but at the risk of eternal damnation. Well at least the centrifugal force is always changing.

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Originally Posted by ChillinDuke

They are really, really good without Bonzie. You should definitely take them.

- Chillin

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Thanks for the tip! LOL

If FSU could hit just 1 of 4 free throws...

A couple of notes from my first big night of ACC wagers:

• Death, taxes, UVA hoops UNDER
• I love watching unx lose under any circumstance, but FSU missed four straight free throws and had one egregious cross-court floating pass turnover to miss covering by one point...it even looked like a perfect backdoor cover when Pinson fouled with 1.x seconds left with FSU up 1 and in the double bonus AND THE SHOOTER MISSED BOTH AGAIN! (yes, salty about the push on that one)
• Clemson up 18pts on BC and missing the cover of 5.5 was also unfortunate for me, but not nearly unexpected...as soon as I saw the Tigers up 18pts with plenty of time left, I had a premonition that they'd fall asleep at the wheel and make it a game
• Um, who's job was it to let the Miami team know they had a game?
• The phenomenon of losing a key player and the balance of the team rallying was in full force for the Irish. Well, either that or NCSU is in real trouble of being dreadful (or both)

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Ok, I finally got off my butt and started the picking contest for the ACC regular season. Just go to this link to sign up: https://contests.covers.com/OfficePo...2-a85c00dbcc0f



Who won this contest last year? Anyone recall? I know who won the ACC pre-season contest... ME!!

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Congrats Jason!

Last year NYBri won.

I should know, I lost first and bought him beer. Well earned and Well deserved.

UNC managed to lose and still leave me seeing red... par for the course

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Who won this contest last year? Anyone recall? I know who won the ACC pre-season contest... ME!!

-Jason "if you have any questions or concerns, let me know!" Evans

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I remember. Check out my sig. :cool:

Congrats, Jason "I need to brag about my win" Evans.

I'm betting 500 fake dollars on the "under" in the Carolina @ Virginia game. It is 135 and I'm counting on the Virginia defense, which limited Virginia Tech to 52 points in Blacksburg, to stifle Carolina's offense.

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I'm betting 500 fake dollars on the "under" in the Carolina @ Virginia game. It is 135 and I'm counting on the Virginia defense, which limited Virginia Tech to 52 points in Blacksburg, to stifle Carolina's offense.

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That’s a tough one. I might take the over. UNC can score and probably lets UVA score. Could be UVA 75, UNC 65.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

That’s a tough one. I might take the over. UNC can score and probably lets UVA score. Could be UVA 75, UNC 65.

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I took the under and I think it is a pretty safe bet. Va Tech has one of the better offenses in college hoops, averaging almost 88 points per game before they played Virginia this week. The game was at Va Tech and teams traditionally score even better at home. The Hokies managed just 52 points against the monster that is the Virginia pack line defense. Carolina will have to go crazy from 3 to get to 65, I expect.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I took the under and I think it is a pretty safe bet. Va Tech has one of the better offenses in college hoops, averaging almost 88 points per game before they played Virginia this week. The game was at Va Tech and teams traditionally score even better at home. The Hokies managed just 52 points against the monster that is the Virginia pack line defense. Carolina will have to go crazy from 3 to get to 65, I expect.

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Good points. I just think the best way to beat the Pac-Man defense is to score quick. UNC is good at that. Don’t think the heels will win, but I do expect them to score more than the average against UVA. But hoo knows. I think it was last year that the hoo’s beat the tar out of those heels.

Virginia 35, Carolina 28 at the half so 63 total points scored so far. The "under" remains in play unless Carolina can force the pace in the 2nd half.

Hate to say I told ya so but...

49 total points for the Heels. Never, ever, ever bet against Virginia's defense (except perhaps when they are playing Duke).

Meanwhile, the OT ruined my under pick for the Clemson-Louisville game otherwise I would be 3-for-3 on O/U bets today.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

49 total points for the Heels. Never, ever, ever bet against Virginia's defense (except perhaps when they are playing Duke).

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I enjoyed winning those 500 fake dollars.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Hate to say I told ya so but...

49 total points for the Heels. Never, ever, ever bet against Virginia's defense (except perhaps when they are playing Duke).

Meanwhile, the OT ruined my under pick for the Clemson-Louisville game otherwise I would be 3-for-3 on O/U bets today.

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Never ever count on the heels to do anything ... game barely got to 110 points ... impressive defensive by the hoo’s ... I’m eating crow for my afternoon snack.

I took the "under" at 150.5 in the Wake Forest at Boston College game. The combined points scored in the 1st half is 70 so I have some wiggle room if the scoring pace is higher in the second half.

I went 2-0 on O/U bets today winning 1000 fake dollars. My last 500 fake dollars bet for today is on Duke to cover the 12.5 points spread.

I took State and the over fully believing that Duke would win by 12 or less.

Winning both bets is hollow victory.

Not sure kg3 got the memo on ACC games only.

kg3 picked 20 games today...all out of the ACC. :cool:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

Not sure kg3 got the memo on ACC games only.

kg3 picked 20 games today...all out of the ACC. :cool:

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Ha. THAT is the only way someone will catch you this week.

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Originally Posted by NYBri

Not sure kg3 got the memo on ACC games only.

kg3 picked 20 games today...all out of the ACC. :cool:

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I just realized I made a mistake when setting up the contest and it is open to anyone in the public who wants to join. Ugh...

This kg3 person is probably not a Dukie or a member of the DBR forums. There is no mechanism for kicking him out of the contest that I am aware of, nor is there any way to even email him, though I will contact Covers to see if they can help. We may just have to endure him as an interloper in our little game.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I just realized I made a mistake when setting up the contest and it is open to anyone in the public who wants to join. Ugh...

This kg3 person is probably not a Dukie or a member of the DBR forums. There is no mechanism for kicking him out of the contest that I am aware of, nor is there any way to even email him, though I will contact Covers to see if they can help. We may just have to endure him as an interloper in our little game.

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How about we use the first week as a "practice," close out that contest, and set up a new, private DBR contest starting this week?

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Originally Posted by Rich

How about we use the first week as a "practice," close out that contest, and set up a new, private DBR contest starting this week?

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Not really fair to the folks who have established a nice lead. It only looks like there is 1, maybe 2, people in the contest who are not DBR regulars (anyone know who BillK is?) so I suspect it won't really matter to the rest of us.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Not really fair to the folks who have established a nice lead. It only looks like there is 1, maybe 2, people in the contest who are not DBR regulars (anyone know who BillK is?) so I suspect it won't really matter to the rest of us.

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After entering the pre-ACC contest late, and immediately plummeting into last place, I am sitting pretty (for me, anyway) in 2nd place. In fact, had NYBri not bet on the Wolfies and me the Devils, I'd be in first. Regardless, whatever you think you need to do to fix it is fine by me.

By the way Jason, looks like kg3 (or whoever it was) is gone now. And not sure who BillK is, but he did at least bet on a true ACC game.

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Originally Posted by Green Wave Dukie

By the way Jason, looks like kg3 (or whoever it was) is gone now. And not sure who BillK is, but he did at least bet on a true ACC game.

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I asked Covers to deal with it and they removed him. Good customer service there.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Not really fair to the folks who have established a nice lead. It only looks like there is 1, maybe 2, people in the contest who are not DBR regulars (anyone know who BillK is?) so I suspect it won't really matter to the rest of us.

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That's me

The over/under on Syracuse v UVA is at 113.5. Hmmm. Go over, or go under?

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Originally Posted by Fish80

The over/under on Syracuse v UVA is at 113.5. Hmmm. Go over, or go under?

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It's all the way up to 114 now...so, that makes the decision easier*. Until the 'Hoos hit a single under, I'm tempted to keep riding the streak.

*sarcasm emoji

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Originally Posted by Fish80

The over/under on Syracuse v UVA is at 113.5. Hmmm. Go over, or go under?

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Originally Posted by English

It's all the way up to 114 now...so, that makes the decision easier*. Until the 'Hoos hit a single under, I'm tempted to keep riding the streak.

*sarcasm emoji

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As my Syracuse friend recently pointed out, the Orange have no "O" and the Devils have no "D". Against UVA I'm going with the under.

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Originally Posted by English

It's all the way up to 114 now...so, that makes the decision easier*. Until the 'Hoos hit a single under, I'm tempted to keep riding the streak.

*sarcasm emoji

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Yikes, where's my head today...of course, I meant "Until the 'Hoos hit a single OVER, I'm tempted to keep riding the streak."

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Originally Posted by English

Yikes, where's my head today...of course, I meant "Until the 'Hoos hit a single OVER, I'm tempted to keep riding the streak."

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Everyone is going under... so I went over. May be the first time I have ever bet UVA and the over.

Also, it is not like UVA always hits the under. This season, they have hit the over 3 times in 12 games that had an O/U.

82% of the experts are taking the under. Yikes, that’s heavy.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

82% of the experts are taking the under. Yikes, that’s heavy.

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And yet... the over made it. Told ya.

I hit both of my O/U bets yesterday but failed on both of my line bets. Sigh... I'm lousy at picking winners, great at picking O/U.

Duke is now -20 at Pitt tonight. According to Veg Ins and CBS.

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Originally Posted by Pghdukie

Duke is now -20 at Pitt tonight. According to Veg Ins and CBS.

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Wow, it was 18 earlier today and gone up 2 points? Somebody's expecting a different Duke team tonight! Tough to not back Pitt after seeing Duke play defense against State. However, I bet fairly often (mostly football) and when a Vegas line looks like they know something that we don't, they're usually right! Duke by 22.

Jason (or anyone) - it's not liking the password "GoDuke" to join the contest.

Did it expire or change? I'd like to hop in now that I'm back on a normal schedule.

- Chillin

Ahh, I just noticed that when covers kicked that one guy out, they added a password. It is: Password10

Bump

I’ve clawed my way out of last place ... all the way to 19!

I am at -650 so my first objective is to get back into the black. I took the over (164) in the Duke vs Wake game for 500 and I placed four additional 200 bets picking the winner of games. So I've got 1300 riding on today's action.

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I took the over (164) in the Duke vs Wake game for 500...

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160 total points scored so I'm a loser. It looked like we were going to get there until both teams couldn't buy a basket the last two minutes of the game.

Someone had a good week, thank you very much! Hope I didn't just jinx tomorrow night.

Bump.

We need more players!!!! :cool:

There I go betting with my heart and not my head again...took the juicy points hanging out there like a fat worm on a hook, going with the Tigers instead of the smart, sure thing bet with those that choose to defy the rules. Also, when will I learn not to go with a gut feeling on an away conference game this season?! C'mon, man, home games are easy money!

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Originally Posted by English

There I go betting with my heart and not my head again...took the juicy points hanging out there like a fat worm on a hook, going with the Tigers...

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You were not the Lone Ranger. :( At least the Over hit. I've almost climbed out of the Red and into the Black. Almost.

And the OU number on the Ga Tech UVA game tonight is 116.5, an insanely low number. A week or so ago the UVA-Syracuse game had a number of 114 (they easily hit the over, scoring combined 129 points). Still, I bet the under. I might be crazy.

I know Bob Green took the over. Anyone else dare to pick this one?

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I know Bob Green took the over. Anyone else dare to pick this one?

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I went to make my picks fully intending to take the under but 116.5 was just too low for me so I went with the over. GT has played better in recent games so I hope they continue that trend tonight to push the points in game high enough to go over.

10 minutes in and the score is 11-4, Virginia. The two teams are on a 60 point pace. Wow...

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

10 minutes in and the score is 11-4, Virginia. The two teams are on a 60 point pace. Wow...

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Good thing that shot clock rule went into effect, what a quarter century ago...

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

And the OU number on the Ga Tech UVA game tonight is 116.5, an insanely low number. A week or so ago the UVA-Syracuse game had a number of 114 (they easily hit the over, scoring combined 129 points). Still, I bet the under. I might be crazy.

I know Bob Green took the over. Anyone else dare to pick this one?

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I went to make my picks fully intending to take the under but 116.5 was just too low for me so I went with the over. GT has played better in recent games so I hope they continue that trend tonight to push the points in game high enough to go over.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

10 minutes in and the score is 11-4, Virginia. The two teams are on a 60 point pace. Wow...

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And the under takes the money.

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Originally Posted by Rich

And the under takes the money.

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I’m thinking there is no under too low for UVA. :cool:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

I’m thinking there is no under too low for UVA. :cool:

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Not only are you thinking it, you are betting it. What was that, another 2,000 points tonight?

I am 9-1 in my last 10; 15-5 in my last 20, and losing ground to you every night the ACC plays. VERY impressive, NYBri.

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Originally Posted by Green Wave Dukie

Not only are you thinking it, you are betting it. What was that, another 2,000 points tonight?

I am 9-1 in my last 10; 15-5 in my last 20, and losing ground to you every night the ACC plays. VERY impressive, NYBri.

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Your winning % is what is impressive. Consistency is hard. A week ago last Wednesday, I thought I made 8 good picks, went 1-7 and dropped 3250 points. :cool:

Wow, just when I was starting to feel good about getting back in the black, I look up to see everyone else sprinting well ahead. Maybe taking UVa unders isn't my secret strategy to climbing the standings, after all.

I'm still in the Red at -390 so my goal for this weekend is to win some fake dollars and get back on the positive side of the ledger. This contest is really enjoyable as it allows me to be passionate about games I normally wouldn't give a hoot about...

FSU at Virginia Tech is the definition of a toss up game so I'm going with the Hokies (I just threw up) because they are at home.

While I'm not sure Georgia Tech can actually pull off the upset in Chapel Hill, I am optimistic they can beat the spread.

The over/under numbers are not yet posted but my intention is to take a hard look at them and place bets accordingly.

28.5 is a ton of points to give to any team in ACC play. Avoiding the winner in that one. :cool:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

28.5 is a ton of points to give to any team in ACC play. Avoiding the winner in that one. :cool:

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Up to 29.5 just now. I’m still taking Duke.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Up to 29.5 just now. I’m still taking Duke.

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Games where there's such a huge disparity in talent scare me. Usually the intensity of the game ebbs somewhere mid second half because one team is so far ahead they turn it over to the second-teamers who are told to "run the offense" and the other team is so hopelessly far behind that they quit trying. As a result the game "compresses" into a game with narrower margins and there's no crush of points at the end that comes from late-game fouling to try to catch up. To hit the over and the spread Duke is going to have to put up at least 93, because you have to assume Pitt is going to manage 60 at best. That's a lot, even for Duke. So the bettor's logic is to take Pitt and the under.

Naturally I took the over.

FSU-Va Tech game is one of those that would drive you crazy if you bet the under. The number was 161.5 and with 10 minutes to go the total is 112 (145 point pace). You are feeling pretty good. With 5 minutes left, they are at exactly 130, which is 146 point pace. With 1 minute left, the score is 77-70 and unless there are 15 points scored in the final minute, you've got this in the bag. The whole second half has been on mid-140s point pace. Why should that change now? You've even got some room for the late game fouls to boost the total a bit with no time coming off the clock.

Then, a combination of fouls and hot scoring by Va Tech allows the 2 teams to score a combined 26 points in the final minute. That's a point almost every other second! Crazy!!! Not only does the under not win, it isn't even close. The total ends up at 173 and folks who did not watch the game probably think the over was never in danger.

-Jason "and that is why being a gambler is insane... oh, I bet the over ;) " Evans

I am in the Black at +560.

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

I am in the Black at +560.

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Good job. I am back in the red. Tough day on the o/u.

Hmmm, I'm sensing UVA and under is pretty popular today for the remaining game...

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Hmmm, I'm sensing UVA and under is pretty popular today for the remaining game...

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I won with the Over in the Miami at State game, but am definitely taking the Under with Virginia.

The Under is looking good at the half: Wake 24, Virginia 22. This game is on pace to score 92 total points.

Weekly winner, chicken dinner!! Here are the weekly standings:

https://image.ibb.co/dmfyGw/Capture.jpg

So, I got a question for all of you... I'm betting the Duke Virginia line next weekend is Duke by 4 (Cameron advantage!!) and the number will be probably around 130. So, are ya'l gonna jump all over the under if it is 130?

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Weekly winner, chicken dinner!! Here are the weekly standings:

https://image.ibb.co/dmfyGw/Capture.jpg

So, I got a question for all of you... I'm betting the Duke Virginia line next weekend is Duke by 4 (Cameron advantage!!) and the number will be probably around 130. So, are ya'l gonna jump all over the under if it is 130?

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I would bet the over (meaning you should probably jump on that under!) :cool:

I think Duke can put up some points, especially in Cameron, on any defense including UVA. Grayson is due for 40.

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Originally Posted by richardjackson199

I would bet the over (meaning you should probably jump on that under!) :cool:

I think Duke can put up some points, especially in Cameron, on any defense including UVA. Grayson is due for 40.

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I don’t think they can match up with Bagley either.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

So, I got a question for all of you... I'm betting the Duke Virginia line next weekend is Duke by 4 (Cameron advantage!!) and the number will be probably around 130. So, are ya'l gonna jump all over the under if it is 130?

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Death, taxes, UVa under. Book it. Still taking Duke -4 at CIS, though.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

So, are ya'l gonna jump all over the under if it is 130?

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When is the last time Duke and Virginia combined for more than 130? Not 2017 (120) or 2016 (125), it was January 31, 2015 when Duke beat Virginia 69-63. I'm most likely going to be a chicken and avoid the Under/Over bet altogether.

Bump ... four games tonight. O/U is not posted yet.

The Under (136.5) seems solid to me in the Duke UVa game as I expect a game played in the low sixties...first team to 65 wins. State is getting 12.5 points against Carolina so I'm gambling the Wolfpack covers. Betting on State is definitely gambling. ;)

I'm going to see how these early game bets go before placing wagers on the later games, but I am leaning toward taking VT over ND as the Irish injuries are daunting.

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

The Under (136.5) seems solid to me in the Duke UVa game as I expect a game played in the low sixties...first team to 65 wins. State is getting 12.5 points against Carolina so I'm gambling the Wolfpack covers. Betting on State is definitely gambling. ;)

I'm going to see how these early game bets go before placing wagers on the later games, but I am leaning toward taking VT over ND as the Irish injuries are daunting.

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Perhaps foolishly, I took the over. Betting our offense can score.

Geez, NYBri, I'm going to start to think you have real skill at this if you toast us for a second year in a row.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Geez, NYBri, I'm going to start to think you have real skill at this if you toast us for a second year in a row.

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Llllllooooooooonnnnnnnggggggg way to go, and what goes up can easily come down.

Yesterday, I went 8-2 and two weeks ago I went 1-7...so, who knows? :cool:

NYBri has now won 2 of the 4 weeks of the contest. Really impressive.

Attachment 8035

-Jason "meanwhile, the Blue Devils are giving 14.5 tonight... that's a biiiig number. I'm afraid of it" Evans

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Geez, NYBri, I'm going to start to think you have real skill at this if you toast us for a second year in a row.

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9,530
#1 O/U picks
#2 ATS
7-2-1
14-5-1

Wow. Just wow. Impressive. And another 1,000 tonight.

Lot of games tonight with some tough picks. Tough to go against the Under in a Virginia game. :cool:

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Originally Posted by NYBri

Lot of games tonight with some tough picks. Tough to go against the Under in a Virginia game. :cool:

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I suspected it when NYBri just clairvoyantly keeps nailing those games. But NYBri is clearly a wiseguy - no wonder he knows the outcomes. Just look at those shades! Straight up goodfella

;)

Go get'em champ!

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Originally Posted by NYBri

Tough to go against the Under in a Virginia game. :cool:

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I took the under in the Louisville at Virginia (124.5), Pitt at Miami (130) and FSU at Wake (155) games.

10 minutes gone and a total of 20 points scored in the Lou-Virginia game... 80 point pace. That under 125.5 is looking good.

What number would make you take the over in a Virginia game? They are playing Syacuse next, another team that plays at slow pace and generally has low-scoring games. Would you take the under at 110 points? How about 100? Last time they played, Vegas put the number at 114... I bet the over and won (129 was the total in that game). But I feel like Virginia's D has gotten even better since then.

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

10 minutes gone and a total of 20 points scored in the Lou-Virginia game... 80 point pace. That under 125.5 is looking good.

What number would make you take the over in a Virginia game? They are playing Syacuse next, another team that plays at slow pace and generally has low-scoring games. Would you take the under at 110 points? How about 100? Last time they played, Vegas put the number at 114... I bet the over and won (129 was the total in that game). But I feel like Virginia's D has gotten even better since then.

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I picked a bad night to finally pick the over in a Virginia game?

Halftime scores:

Virginia 32, Louisville 26
Miami 34, Pitt 25

Both games on pace to be Under.

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Originally Posted by Bob Green

Halftime scores:

Virginia 32, Louisville 26
Miami 34, Pitt 25

Both games on pace to be Under.

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Miami Pitt. Over. :cool:

Looking like that "lock" Virginia under is in real danger. 4 minutes left in the game and they have combined for 114. If there is a final minute of fouls, which often happens unless the game is a blow out, the over could happen!

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Looking like that "lock" Virginia under is in real danger. 4 minutes left in the game and they have combined for 114. If there is a final minute of fouls, which often happens unless the game is a blow out, the over could happen!

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128 with more than a minute left. DOWN GOES THE UNDER!!!

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

128 with more than a minute left. DOWN GOES THE UNDER!!!

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3 PT barrage did in us Under betters.

Final: Miami 69, Pitt 57 so the Under wins.

I split the first two bets of the night.

I may go 0-7 tonight. :cool:

Bad day for me. 0 for 9. Yikes. I may be the first one out.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Bad day for me. 0 for 9. Yikes. I may be the first one out.

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Last night was a tough night to make picks. Hard games to get any read on.

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Originally Posted by Fish80

Bad day for me. 0 for 9. Yikes. I may be the first one out.

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Not a great one for me either, although I managed to eek out 0.500. Per my usual MO this season, my wager habits and the vig have me well in the red for the evening, though. I'm almost never more confident than when that UVa under is singing the siren's song. Well, that and Wake playing any middle-tier opponent. Sigh.

Thank goodness for VaTech's ineptitude down the stretch and the subsequent OT. That over helped nicely.

Saturday's going to be huge. 7 games (including Duke-SJU). Everyone should be able to find 10 bets in there.

Moving Day for the standings. Up or down.

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Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Saturday's going to be huge. 7 games (including Duke-SJU). Everyone should be able to find 10 bets in there.

Moving Day for the standings. Up or down.

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I haven't looked for the lines on Virginia-Syracuse on Saturday, but I noted that the two teams are ranked by Kenpom for adjusted tempo as #351 (out of 351) and #343. That's gonna be one slow game.

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Originally Posted by rasputin

I haven't looked for the lines on Virginia-Syracuse on Saturday, but I noted that the two teams are ranked by Kenpom for adjusted tempo as #351 (out of 351) and #343. That's gonna be one slow game.

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I'm pretty sure that UVa hit an under at 110 earlier this season (although I cannot remember the opponent). I'd be surprised if Vegas set it at anything higher than, like, 112.5. I'd still probably leap at the opportunity with all 500 of my units.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Saturday's going to be huge. 7 games (including Duke-SJU). Everyone should be able to find 10 bets in there.

Moving Day for the standings. Up or down.

---

Saturday is a big day indeed. :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Saturday's going to be huge. 7 games (including Duke-SJU). Everyone should be able to find 10 bets in there.

Moving Day for the standings. Up or down.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Saturday is a big day indeed. :cool:

---

Bump!

Standard selections - Duke Over/Virginia Under. Plus four ATS wagers: I took Duke, State, Louisville and Pitt. I've got a good week going so hopefully it continues.

114... that is the number in the Virginia-Syracuse game.

I picked the over. Probably incredibly stupid. Heck, I am 100% regretting it right now. I wish I could turn that ticket in and get the under. Sheesh! I predict the halftime score is 28-20.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

114... that is the number in the Virginia-Syracuse game.

I picked the over. Probably incredibly stupid. Heck, I am 100% regretting it right now. I wish I could turn that ticket in and get the under. Sheesh! I predict the halftime score is 28-20.

---

Yep sorry Jason, I took the over! I just can't help myself.

And sorry Bob Green, I also took Pitt, State, and Louisville ATS. I don't bet on the Duke games due to too much bias and emotion, even with fake money.

I'm expecting to be the first to bust out today again this year! :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

114... that is the number in the Virginia-Syracuse game.

I predict the halftime score is 28-20.

---

Close. Virginia 31, Syracuse 21.

3:56 to go and 95 points have been scored in the Virginia @ Syracuse game. The Under is holding on.

Final: Virginia 59, Syracuse 44. 103 total points scored. :cool:

BC at Notre Dame tonight. No O/U posted yet.

I took the Under (130) in the Virginia @ Florida State game. Shocking. In 11 ACC games involving Virginia, the Under has hit nine times; however, in 11 ACC games involving Florida State, the Under has hit only three times.

Florida State and Virginia combined for 54 points in the 1st half. Watching the game, I'm not cheering for either team, I am cheering for missed shots. ;)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob Green

Florida State and Virginia combined for 54 points in the 1st half. Watching the game, I'm not cheering for either team, I am cheering for missed shots. ;)

---

I think you hit the under! 114 points.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fish80

I think you hit the under! 114 points.

---

The UVa-FLSt under hit, as did the NCSU-VaTech under (barely).

Miami, in wonderful position to cover the 8.5pt spread, up 13pts with a few minutes left, really tried to pry defeat from the jaws of victory. Wake cut the lead to 3pt before Miami stretched it to comfortable-but-not-comfortable-enough 6.

VaTech absolutely cruised in Blacksburg. Whatever was working for NCSU lately was in short supply last night.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by English

The UVa-FLSt under hit, as did the NCSU-VaTech under (barely).

Miami, in wonderful position to cover the 8.5pt spread, up 13pts with a few minutes left, really tried to pry defeat from the jaws of victory. Wake cut the lead to 3pt before Miami stretched it to comfortable-but-not-comfortable-enough 6.

VaTech absolutely cruised in Blacksburg. Whatever was working for NCSU lately was in short supply last night.

---

Miami cost me 500 clams failing to beat the spread. I blame Will Smith.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fish80

Miami cost me 500 clams failing to beat the spread. I blame Will Smith.

---

Don't let Alex Rodriguez off the hook so easily.

I've been treading water for weeks--why am I still in 4th place in this dumb contest?. You guys really stink at this.

Va Tech at UVA - Over/Under at 129.5?

I know it's a rivalry game, but seems too high - am I missing something? Even I took the under.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by richardjackson199

Va Tech at UVA - Over/Under at 129.5?

I know it's a rivalry game, but seems too high - am I missing something? Even I took the under.

---

VaTech and UVA combined for 130 in their first matchup, fyi.

Still, can't argue that betting UVA under blindly has been a good idea.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

VaTech and UVA combined for 130 in their first matchup, fyi.

Still, can't argue that betting UVA under blindly has been a good idea.

---

Trouble did you get your beer money? Should be there by now. Congrats, you won fair and square.

Quick over/under side bet on the over/under: How many overtimes will it take for Va/VaTech to hit the over/under. O/U 1.5 OTs.

Sweet! Beat the spread and the O/U!

Not pretty, but Duke covered an away conference game (not against Pitt) AND the over. That's been rare.

It seems betting UVa unders has some competition among blind wagers with...betting whatever spread you want against Kevin Stallings.

Can i use a mulligan? I bet ND to cover thinking they were the home team. Arrrggg!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CameronBlue

Can i use a mulligan? I bet ND to cover thinking they were the home team. Arrrggg!

---

You know how it goes. Your accidental bet will win.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

You know how it goes. Your accidental bet will win.

---

I have a very sophisticated method for picking my winners involving B(n,p), an inverse matrix and the equation for the volume of two intersecting conicals where n=# mirrors and p=dispersion coefficient of smoke in a vacuum.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CameronBlue

Can i use a mulligan? I bet ND to cover thinking they were the home team. Arrrggg!

---

"u"nc appeared to get home team "treatment" even when they played in South Bend earlier this season. Right, elvis14? :mad:

Son of a mother. We decide to play defense and screw the over/under.

Crazy game between Clemson & FSU, culminating with FSU coming back from 18pts down and winning without covering at home.

/Sad Face emoji

At least it helps our own team's position in the conference standings.

Wake is impossible to get a handle on, although my default has been when-in-doubt-take-the-home-team, so that paid off last night.

Duke hit the over in every single game we played this year until the Evansville game (where their offense was so abysmal that we barely missed the number). Following the Evansville game, we hit 2 more overs, bringing our over/under at that point in the season to 12-1. The over seemed like the surest thing since Virginia under.

Since then, Duke has 7 unders and only 4 overs. Hmmmmm.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Since then, Duke has 7 unders and only 4 overs. Hmmmmm.

---

I interpret this to mean our defense has drastically improved. ;) :cool:

I bet all Unders today, and UVA isn't even playing. Should add some spice and excitement.

I believe we have our first Loser, and it's not me. GreenWave Dukie is at -5390. GreenWave made lots more bets than me and got 49.5% right which isn't bad.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Duke hit the over in every single game we played this year until the Evansville game (where their offense was so abysmal that we barely missed the number). Following the Evansville game, we hit 2 more overs, bringing our over/under at that point in the season to 12-1. The over seemed like the surest thing since Virginia under.

Since then, Duke has 7 unders and only 4 overs. Hmmmmm.

---

Coincidentally, I was in Vegas during the Duke-Evansville game and I bet the Duke over. That's the only bet I've made all year.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by richardjackson199

I believe we have our first Loser, and it's not me. GreenWave Dukie is at -5390. GreenWave made lots more bets than me and got 49.5% right which isn't bad.

---

He has a couple of picks pending. Still time to save the ball from going out of bounds, assuming DQs are handed out at the end of the day's action.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2TspOdrmtE

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by richardjackson199

I believe we have our first Loser, and it's not me. GreenWave Dukie is at -5390. GreenWave made lots more bets than me and got 49.5% right which isn't bad.

---

Hey, I resemble that remark!!

Go get 'em richardjackson199. Know I'll be rooting for you. Your comeback is about to begin!

Bump.

Only one game to bet on today, Miami at Notre Dame. Expert picks are heavy on Notre Dame, about split on the O/U.

I've managed to stay in 2nd place for a while now but I really need to win some bets to stay ahead of rasputin who is breathing down my neck. For tonight, I pinched my nose while placing a bet on State to win.

Weird. Twice now I have made picks, submitted them, they showed up on my page, and then after the games are over, they are not there. I picked ND and the over and I go to my page today and it's like I didn't play.

Same thing happened last Saturday. I picked all the games, but I looked after the early games began and there is nothing on my page. I picked the late games again and they registered.

hhhmmmm. I think they were all washes, but it's just weird.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob Green

I've managed to stay in 2nd place for a while now but I really need to win some bets to stay ahead of rasputin who is breathing down my neck. For tonight, I pinched my nose while placing a bet on State to win.

---

I believe this is what Coach K refers to as "game pressure."

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Weird. Twice now I have made picks, submitted them, they showed up on my page, and then after the games are over, they are not there. I picked ND and the over and I go to my page today and it's like I didn't play.

Same thing happened last Saturday. I picked all the games, but I looked after the early games began and there is nothing on my page. I picked the late games again and they registered.

hhhmmmm. I think they were all washes, but it's just weird.

---

I had this same problem in the pre-ACC contest. Did you recently change browsers (or computers)? I realized that the new browser I was using didn't work with Covers and I went back to using the old browser.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Weird. Twice now I have made picks, submitted them, they showed up on my page, and then after the games are over, they are not there. I picked ND and the over and I go to my page today and it's like I didn't play.

Same thing happened last Saturday. I picked all the games, but I looked after the early games began and there is nothing on my page. I picked the late games again and they registered.

hhhmmmm. I think they were all washes, but it's just weird.

---

It happened to me too this past Saturday. I picked all the games, but by the time I finished picking, I realized that the first 3 picks I made were not there on the bet card where they show you your bets. So I just made those bets again and they went through. I think it's just some glitch in the Covers website. So maybe it would help to just double check your bet card of your picks on Covers after you place your bets to make sure they're all there. If some disappear, just place them again.

Lots of good action to bet on tonight:

Quote:

---

Wednesday
[1]Virginia (13-1) (-19) hosts [124]Georgia Tech (4-10) (7:00, ESPN2)
[45]Syracuse (7-7) (+3) hosts [7]North Carolina (10-5) (7:00, ESPN)
[34]Virginia Tech (8-6) (-1) hosts [16]Clemson (9-5) (7:00, ACCNE)
[3]Duke (10-4) hosts [36]Louisville (8-6) (9:00, ESPN)
[231]Pittsburgh (0-15) hosts [88]Wake Forest (3-12) (9:00, ACCNE)

---

If Pittsburgh is going to win an ACC game, tonight is good opportunity. They are +9 at home against Wake Forest. How many DBR degenerates take that gamble?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob Green

Lots of good action to bet on tonight:



If Pittsburgh is going to win an ACC game, tonight is good opportunity. They are +9 at home against Wake Forest. How many DBR degenerates take that gamble?

---

I'm thoroughly torn on both of my "Death, taxes, & ..." betting trends tonight:
1. UVA under--O/U of 113 is awfully low, even for a marginal team like GaTech. I could see UVA trying to exorcise some demons tonight at home and putting up a whopping 68pts, and sneaking past the Over
2. Pitt's opposition, at any spread--9pts is a LOT to lay with Wake on the road against anyone

The over on UVA finally paid off!

Bump. 6 games tomorrow. Big day.

Yuge!

Today's games:

Quote:

---

Saturday
[34]Virginia Tech (8-6) (-3) hosts [36]Louisville (8-6) (1:00, CBS)
[44]Miami (7-7) (-8) hosts [80]Boston College (6-8) (2:00, ACCNE)
[88]Wake Forest (3-12) (+2) hosts [29]Notre Dame (6-8) (3:00, ACCNE)
[16]Clemson (9-5) (-14) hosts [124]Georgia Tech (4-10) (3:00, ACCNE)
[234]Pittsburgh (0-15) (+18) hosts [1]Virginia (13-1) (4:00, ESPNU)
[3]Duke (10-4) (-13) hosts [45]Syracuse (7-7) (6:00, ESPN3)

---

I went with the standard Virginia under and Duke over even though Virginia was over last time out and Duke has been under the past three games. That's why they call it gambling. Virginia Tech is playing good basketball and Louisville is not so the Hokies at home (-4) seems solid.

Six games today. I've placed 12 bets. Gotta play to win. :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Six games today. I've placed 12 bets. Gotta play to win. :cool:

---

More like play to humiliate... you are almost 5000 fake bucks in the lead at this point. But, I do admire you for not resting on your big lead. By betting it gives the rest of us a chance to catch you. Thanks!

I am 4-1 so far with the Over in the Duke game left. Virginia Tech let me down.

I was surprised to find this thread had slipped to Page 3 so I'm bumping it back to the top. The last week of the regular season is upon us so the end of this contest is in sight. There are three games tonight and I've made a wager in each one:

Pitt at Notre Dame - Under 135.5
Florida State at Clemson - Clemson (-3.5)
Syracuse at Boston College - Syracuse (+2)

Pitt/ND game started ato ND -21. It is now ND -18.5. A big swing for a game of little importance. WHY ?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pghdukie

Pitt/ND game started ato ND -21. It is now ND -18.5. A big swing for a game of little importance. WHY ?

---

A lot of the bigger bettors liked Pitt. It's not THAT huge a move because the line is so big. Moving two and half points from 4.5 to 2 on the spread, for example, is more meaningful than moving from 21 to 18.5.

With Colson announced as playing, line should have gone the other way. Plus it's Senior night. More importantly, Pitt is not very good.

Sixty two points scored in the 1st half in South Bend so the Under looks good at the halfway point. :cool: Lots of basketball left to be played.

The Under wins in South Bend. Betting the Over/Under, in games you don't care who wins, is a lot of fun. You don't cheer for Team A or Team B, you cheer for made shots (Over) or missed shots (Under). Missed shots got it done for me tonight.

Reminder: Thursday is not dark this week:

Quote:

---

Thursday
[33]Louisville (9-7) (+6) hosts [1]Virginia (15-1) (8:00, ACCNE)
[119]Georgia Tech (4-12) (+5) hosts [40]NC State (10-6) (8:00, ACCNE)

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Pghdukie

With Colson announced as playing, line should have gone the other way. Plus it's Senior night. More importantly, Pitt is not very good.

---

Knowledge of Colson playing against Pitt predated the line coming out. So did knowledge of Pitt not being very good :) and it being ND's Senior Night. They were all priced into the line already.

If I had to take a stab in the dark at what the big bettors were thinking (and big bettors don't have to be sharp, but most likely they were here since they're betting Pitt), it was that
(A) ND would mostly play zone in order to give Colson, who hadn't played in 2 months, more rest and playing time than if they had played m2m. This lowers the number of possessions, which helps both the underdog against the spread and the under on the total.
(B) Teams often struggle to re-integrate star players

As it turned out, the big bettors won, even though they had to sweat it out at the end of the game.

7 games tomorrow! Nirvana for degenerates!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

7 games tomorrow! Nirvana for degenerates!

---

I hope we all do better than we did on Wednesday. I was 0 for 3.

If I go 14-0, and the NY cheese guy goes 0-14, I still can’t catch him. Hi Brian, heck of a run you’ve had.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fish80

If I go 14-0, and the NY cheese guy goes 0-14, I still can’t catch him. Hi Brian, heck of a run you’ve had.

---

With 14 bets today, it's still a horse race. I played all 14 at 500 fake-bucks each and am praying to break even. :cool:

P.S. There is still the tourney. We played that last year, right, Jason?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

P.S. There is still the tourney. We played that last year, right, Jason?

---

Yup, we will do a new contest for the ACC and NCAA tourneys.

I was destroyed this week... went from +4000 and in the thick of it to a disastrous +500. Today will probably take me into negative territory. That is what I get for trying to chase NYBri.

10-4.

Luck strikes again. :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Yup, we will do a new contest for the ACC and NCAA tourneys.

I was destroyed this week... went from +4000 and in the thick of it to a disastrous +500. Today will probably take me into negative territory. That is what I get for trying to chase NYBri.

---

The ACC tourney is part of the current contest, Jason, judging by the end date of 3/13/2018.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

The ACC tourney is part of the current contest, Jason, judging by the end date of 3/13/2018.

---

That’s what I thought. Great week, Trouble!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

That’s what I thought. Great week, Trouble!

---

Thanks, NYBri. And a great season to you.

Hey, Jason.

Are we including the ACCT in this contest as we did last year? Please advise?

Thx :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Hey, Jason.

Are we including the ACCT in this contest as we did last year? Please advise?

Thx :cool:

---

Yes we will... more time for the rest of us to embark on the futile quest to catch you!

14 more games left in the contest. 28 potential wagers. Anyone in the top 8 can still realistically win this thing with so many wagers and a 500 unit max.

rasputinDBR has placed a leading 258 wagers. Impressive. Trouble had an outstanding week.

Let's Play! :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by JasonEvans

Yes we will... more time for the rest of us to embark on the futile quest to catch you!

---

I fell from 2nd place to 3rd place the last couple of days of the regular season so now I need to catch Troublemaker in addition to NYBri.

This wagering contest is great. Last year, I performed pretty well through the whole season (until the ACC tournament when I abandoned my strategy for a last ditch effort to go from second to first). Part of me was thinking: "oh, I must be naturally gifted at this, if I ever end up in Vegas, I should spend some time at the sports books."

This season has been the good reminder that last season wasn't a great sample size, and I just got really lucky quite a few times. That part of me that thought I was good at this has been mercifully killed.

That being said - still going for broke through the ACC tourney, since I haven't had time to make many wagers this season.

I had a couple of good weeks early on, but have struggled of late and dropped to the bottom of the pack. At this point I'm just playing for next year.

I went 1-0 yesterday and am back in 2nd place. Today I intend to be more active placing wagers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bob Green

I went 1-0 yesterday and am back in 2nd place. Today I intend to be more active placing wagers.

---

5-1 yesterday... and I'm coming for 2nd place!!!

Raise your hand if you were an idiot and bet on State. :mad:

Oof, UVa is going to hit the over with more than 3min remaining. That may be unprecedented since Handsome Tony arrived in Cville.

small sample size, of course, but placing nothing but gut-check max bets has been good to me this week.

Three games left. I've reset the goalposts for myself - I just want to get out of the bottom 5.

Congrats on your victory, NYBri!

Just complete domination, as it was for you during last year's ACC season, as I recall.

Congrats NYBri. Impressive.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Troublemaker

Congrats on your victory, NYBri!

Just complete domination, as it was for you during last year's ACC season, as I recall.

---

Many thanks, Trouble. There is not a single thought in my head that there is any real skill involved in this. Just a bunch of guesses on top of hunches. More than a few after a couple of craft IPAs, I might add. :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fish80

Congrats NYBri. Impressive.

---

Thanks to you as well, Fish. :cool:

And I would gladly give up all of the wins this year and last for a Natty. :cool:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

And I would gladly give up all of the wins this year and last for a Natty. :cool:

---

I’ll throw all my fake dollars on that sacrifice!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

Many thanks, Trouble. There is not a single thought in my head that there is any real skill involved in this. Just a bunch of guesses on top of hunches. More than a few after a couple of craft IPAs, I might add. :cool:



Thanks to you as well, Fish. :cool:

---

Yea, which ones?

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...?3840-Ymm-Beer

;)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NYBri

And I would gladly give up all of the wins this year and last for a Natty. :cool:

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Fish80

I’ll throw all my fake dollars on that sacrifice!

---

I'd gladly sacrifice some lambs/sheep, too. ;)

Congratulations to NYBri on a dominating performance and congratulations to Troublemaker coming in 2nd Place. My personal performance was strong over the last few weeks of the regular season but I crashed and burned in the ACC Tournament.

This contest was very fun so a huge thank you very much to Jason Evans for setting it up.

I am proud of my Week 2 contest leading record of 16-10 (+1050) and my overall 51% winning percentage, but those were the only bright spots to an otherwise abysmal 20th place finish. Congrats to the winners and thanks to Jason. On to the Big Dance...Go Duke! May you fare better than I did!

Y'all are lucky the tournament lasted less than a week! From 20th place to 11th place - with a +2850 units in just a couple of days. I ended in the positive, which is a big win in my book.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by peterjswift

Y'all are lucky the tournament lasted less than a week! From 20th place to 11th place - with a +2850 units in just a couple of days. I ended in the positive, which is a big win in my book.

---

Don't go getting all first person on us buddy. I was negatory 2700 at the end of day TWO of the ACC tournament before streaking into positive ground. And I finished 3rd ATS. I see your mediocrity and raise you two big whoops.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CameronBlue

Don't go getting all first person on us buddy. I was negatory 2700 at the end of day TWO of the ACC tournament before streaking into positive ground. And I finished 3rd ATS. I see your mediocrity and raise you two big whoops.

---

What is the cash value of your whoops? I would like to cash out, right now.


(Really, if anyone is lucky that the tournament is only a week long, it is me. I had a great streak to end the contest and end up positive, but one more day and I could have been right back in the cellar!).