Tip Discussion - Interesting Race
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DevilHorse
Here's a few tips that I use when handicapping:
"Not a person alive has paid the bills at 1 to 5": Basically true. If a horse is an overwelming favorite, it is tough to pick it at really low odds. The only time I would bet it is if a race was a "set up" for a good horse. For example, the first time Monomoy Girl raced this year (after a 1.5 year lay-off) they created a race for her; (see next tip for the type) she was probably out of shape, but needed a race before taking on stakes company. But class almost always trumps (sorry) fitness. I bet her at 1/5 and she won by 4 easily. I'm not a bridgejumper. Although I have done the opposite of bridge jumping (bet every horse to come in other than the BIG HORSE, in the overloaded pool; great fun).
Look for value in "Optional Claiming" races. These are races that are allowance races, but people can try to sell their horses in there. It is a real mix of very good horses with throw aways. You can find some lesser stakes horses (drop outs from the KY Derby trail) with regular claimers (losers) and iffy horses. You can find prices here.
Every spring there are coming out races for the top colts and fillies. They rarely come out in the same race. With TVG and the internet, find a few twitter guys to follow, or the DRF.com website and find these top 20 horses. You can get even odds on horses that are still overlays. Don't bet your shirt, but by managing your money, you can turn a profit.
Pick your races, and become a friend of Briswatch so you can pick up any race's PPs that you want for free. It takes a little work, but it can be done for 95% of the races.
Larry
DevilHorse
An interesting race is coming up next week that touches on a couple of these tips.
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1082720
On Wednesday, Nov 25, Race 8 at Churchill Downs, Dennis' Moment re-appears after an 8 month layoff. If you recall, Dennis' Moment was the favorite in last year's BC Juvenile, after winning his only 2 races (one of which was by 19 lengths). But Dennis' Moment apparently had problems, and after a poor performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, was put on the shelf. He has been coming back, with at least one bullet work (does everyone know what this is?). So, this is a chancey bet for an Optional Claimer (he is not in for a tag, so the owners want to keep him).
Also in the field is the Ohio Derby winner, #10 - Dean Martini, trained by Tom Amoss. He's looked fairly bad since the Derby in June, and that includes another optional claimer.
So, if Dennis' Moment is back to his 2YO form, he lays over this field, he wins for fun. If he continues to have problems, it is back to the drawing board. This is not a walk over. He has been working back smartly, but the stress of a race doesn't show up till the end of a race (usually). We will see. I would wait to see the odds before laying down money. But it is an interesting race for a horse that has garnered major interest early this year. Sometimes it takes a year (or two) to get a horse right. Some owners will put in the time and some just get rid of them and move on to the next horse. Dale Roman and his owners have stuck with this horse and I hope they are rewarded.
Larry
DevilHorse
The Fastest Horse In The World
Evidently Bob Baffert loves a horse that is about to make his first start in a maiden race at Del Mar.
In Race 2, Del Mar 11/22/2020, Keeneland purchase, $525K, Life Is Good:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...94¶m3=1694
He isn't the most expensive horse in this race, even from that sale, but he is the Buzz horse from the Baffert barn. Let's see if he is worth 1/9.
Larry
DevilHorse