So . . . taking the over?
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Man, tough picks today.
Duke/Wake is basically a glorified practice against what appears to be a team on the brink of collapse (the exact wrong time to face a team like Duke), so who knows what will happen? How much of the game will see us using this as a chance for our core unit to continue its growth and ramp up the intensity going into the heart of the ACC schedule, versus a rare opportunity to get key people some rest during conference play? Has Manning lost this team, and is there potential for an ugly death spiral happening in real time? Playing a team like Duke when you're fragile can get really ugly.
Tough to know what to expect other than Duke should win big, so I took Duke to cover at -20.5. I don't think rest is as big a deal as people make of it, especially in early January after a long break. I expect Coach is more interested in reps for his young team than giving Zion an extra ten minutes on the bench. But man, if it gets super super ugly we might see double-digit minutes for some unfamiliar faces. If that happens our final spread and total points will boil down to the performance of garbage time units, and that's just a roll of the dice. For that reason I did go with the under at 158. I'm skeptical Wake will contribute much more than 60 points, and hitting 100 in an ACC road game with lots of garbage time doesn't happen often.
For State/Cheats, I decided that the power of State %$#& would overcome the forces of good and light, and went with the cheats. Yes, UNC has had some weird games, but at times they've looked fantastic. And they're not professional disappointers the way State is. Having picked the cheats, I will thus have something to celebrate either way. I thought an over of 171.5 was crazy, so I took the under.
You pretty much covered the challenges of picking these couple of games. And hey, I'm with you on some picks (involving Duke or the Cheats) - sometimes I will predict what I don't WANT to happen, figuring I'll have something to be happy abut with either result. I guess that's my Gambling Hedge Fund strategy...
The problem with big lines as I see it, is that if we build an early lead and maintain it, K will go deep into the bench earlier. He will also slow the tempo some to not run up the score. When we have the second and third team in, scoring is iffy. It is why we don't hit 100 pints as often as you would think also. 20.5 might not seem like a big enough spread, but it may be just right. Clemson was 16, and we were one late 3 by Clemson from a push.
This is really hard stuff, and if this weren't a free contest, I would probably totally stay away from this game.
As it is, I took Duke at 20.5 and the over @ 158. 92-68 does not seem to be an unreasonable final score for this one.
As I said, however, I am really, really bad at this. 88-68 could also be a final score on this one!
I think I took Duke and the over, Cheats and the under.
Still, GTHC.
They didn’t cover the over. Barely covered the spread. 😎
Let’s go State! 😎
Good grief, 10 stupid points in the last 28 seconds, including 2 absolutely meaningless free throws with 9 seconds left. I'm glad I didn't have real money riding on taking the under. I don't know how actual betters don't go crazy.
Well done, you had that handicapped almost perfectly. IMO, taking the under for Duke/Wake was the best bet of a small card last night.
There was an 85% chance or so of seeing Coach K's over-killing stallball, and I don't know how many times we'll be able to say that for the remainder of the schedule.
Jason -- are we still doing the -$5000 and you're eliminated from the contest rule?
There is a new player or two this time, and so I figure it would be good to clarify all your rules.
Thanks, Mr. Sportsbook Manager.