Tracking Duke's Defense - 2018-19

We had one of these threads last year and it is probably worth launching one for this season as well. Many seem to think Duke is playing the best D we have seen in many years (at least since 2010). Kedsy is the genius who has all the great defensive stats and I leave it to him to provide us with an ongoing tally of what Duke is doing**.

But, I wanted to get the thread started with this article praising the phenomenal on the ball D from Tre Jones. I think Tre is our best on-the-ball defender since at least Duhon, maybe since Wojo or maybe even Billy King. Truly remarkable for a freshman!

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Jones’ knee bruise came when he dove on the floor for a loose ball, easily the sixth time in the game the freshman point guard had done so. While slapping the floor to prepare for a defensive stand has long been a tradition at Duke, this year’s team, led by Jones, is doing so with their bodies, not their palms.

Zion Williamson, the team’s 285-pound future NBA draft pick, has also made a habit of throwing himself to the floor to corral loose balls. The effort has produced a suffocating pressure defense not seen in Durham since the heyday of the early 1990s.

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-Jason "**- I know Kedsy posts his stats in the post game thread, but I am hoping he will do it here too so we can track the D on an ongoing basis from game-to-game" Evans

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

We had one of these threads last year and it is probably worth launching one for this season as well. Many seem to think Duke is playing the best D we have seen in many years (at least since 2010). Kedsy is the genius who has all the great defensive stats and I leave it to him to provide us with an ongoing tally of what Duke is doing**.

But, I wanted to get the thread started with this article praising the phenomenal on the ball D from Tre Jones. I think Tre is our best on-the-ball defender since at least Duhon, maybe since Wojo or maybe even Billy King. Truly remarkable for a freshman!



-Jason "**- I know Kedsy posts his stats in the post game thread, but I am hoping he will do it here too so we can track the D on an ongoing basis from game-to-game" Evans

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OK, I'll do it. I'll try to transfer the defensive side stats from the post game threads sometime in the next week and then keep it going from there.

Defensive stats vs. Kentucky:

dRtg: 1.02
eFG%: 47.5%
3pt%: 23.5%
2pt%: 52.4%
%threes: 28.8%
FT rate: 64.4%
DR%: 69.4%
TO%: 18.2%
a/to ratio: 1.13:1
%assisted: 65.4%
fast break: 12 fb points for 14.3%
block%: 5.1% (7.1% of two-point shots)

dRtg: 0.92
eFG%: 43.6%
3pt%: 38.7%
2pt%: 28.1%
%threes: 39.7%
FT rate: 9.0%
DR%: 74.5%
TO%: 12.8%
a/to ratio: 2.2: 1
%assisted: 78.6%
fast break: 9 fb pts for 12.5% of points scored
block%: 32.1% (56.3% of two-point shots)

dRtg: 0.63
eFG%: 33.1%
3pt%: 16.7%
2pt%: 36.0%
%threes: 26.5%
FT rate: 4.4%
DR%: 67.3%
TO%: 26.2%
a/to: 0.47:1
%assisted: 42.9%
fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 8.7%
block%: 16.2%; 22.0% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 0.88
eFG%: 41.5%
3pt%: 28.6%
2pt%: 40.6%
%threes: 39.6%
FT rate: 50.9%
DR%: 78.4%
TO%: 17.9%
a/to: 0.62:1
%assisted: 42.1%
fast break pts: 2 fb pts in first half; box score didn't say in second half
block%: 7.5%; 12.9% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 1.02 (adjusted 90.4)
eFG%: 43.5%
3pt%: 34.4%
2pt%: 35.6%
%threes: 41.6%
FT rate: 11.6%
DR%: 64.0%
TO%: 12.7%
a/to: 1.56:1
%assisted: 50.0%
fast break pts: 18 fb pts for 25.0%
block%: 14.3%; 22.2% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 1.23 (adjusted 108.0)
eFG%: 60.0%
3pt%: 52.6%
2pt%: 52.2%
%threes: 29.2%
FT rate: 29.2%
DR%: 62.9%
TO%: 15.2%
a/to: 1.45:1
%assisted: 32.4%
fast break pts: 17 fb pts for 19.1%
block%: 9.2%; 10.9% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 0.88 (adjusted 0.78)
eFG%: 43.0%
3pt%: 31.3%
2pt%: 41.7%
%threes: 25.0%
FT rate: 39.1%
DR%: 59.5%
TO%: 25.4%
a/to: 0.65:1
%assisted: 52.0%
fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 5.8%
block%: 15.6%; 20.8% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 0.60 (adjusted 0.69)
eFG%: 33.3%
3pt%: 8.7%
2pt%: 46.2%
%threes: 37.1%
FT rate: 21.0%
DR%: 69.6%
TO%: 31.8%
a/to: 0.42:1
%assisted: 55.0%
fast break pts: 7 fb pts for 14.3%
block%: 8.1%; 10.3% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 0.74 (adjusted 0.76)
eFG%: 33.3%
3pt%: 29.6%
2pt%: 35.3%
%threes: 39.3%
FT rate: 14.8%
DR%: 69.8%
TO%: 28.9%
a/to: 0.62:1
%assisted: 65.0%
fast break pts: 3 fb pts for 5.6%
block%: 16.4%; 29.4% of 2-point shots

dRtg: 0.70 (adjusted 0.66)
eFG%: 37.7%
3pt%: 13.0%
2pt%: 47.6%
%threes: 35.4%
FT rate: 16.9%
DR%: 76.2%
TO%: 27.7%
a/to: 0.61:1
%assisted: 60.9%
fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 15.5%
block%: 7.7%; 14.3% of 2-point shots

After 10 games, here are our national ranks in various defensive stats (all unadjusted except "adjusted dRating"):

unadjusted dRating: #13 (.859)

adjusted dRating: #5 (.899)

opp eFG%: #10 (42.3%)

opp FT rate: #23 (tie) (24.7%)

DR%: #286 (tie) (69.2%)

opp TO%: #95 (tie) (n/a)

opp asst%: #267 (tie) (56.1%)

block%: #6 (tie) (17.6%)

steals%: #2 (tie) (14.5%)

opp 3pt%: #30 (28.2%)

opp %threes: #61 (tie) (34.8%)

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

After 10 games, here are our national ranks in various defensive stats (all unadjusted except "adjusted dRating"):

unadjusted dRating: #13 (.859)

adjusted dRating: #5 (.899)

opp eFG%: #10 (42.3%)

opp FT rate: #23 (tie) (24.7%)

DR%: #286 (tie) (69.2%)

opp TO%: #95 (tie) (n/a)

opp asst%: #267 (tie) (56.1%)

block%: #6 (tie) (17.6%)

steals%: #2 (tie) (14.5%)

opp 3pt%: #30 (28.2%)

opp %threes: #61 (tie) (34.8%)

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How’s our FT% defense😀. That number is an important piece to our luck factor.

Since Gonzaga the efficiency stats are astonishing and historically good - and consistent. I don’t know if something in the defensive strategy was changed or if that game was a wake up call to the team about defensive effort/commitment or if it’s just a matter of the team getting more comfortable playing team defense with each other, but it’s so exciting to see. Our ability to turn defense into offense reminds me of the late 80s teams and the fast break game with multiple wings reminds me of the 92 team. Very curious to see how well we can maintain this level of defense when the conference schedule starts.

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Originally Posted by mr. synellinden

Since Gonzaga the efficiency stats are astonishing and historically good - and consistent. I don’t know if something in the defensive strategy was changed or if that game was a wake up call to the team about defensive effort/commitment or if it’s just a matter of the team getting more comfortable playing team defense with each other, but it’s so exciting to see. Our ability to turn defense into offense reminds me of the late 80s teams and the fast break game with multiple wings reminds me of the 92 team. Very curious to see how well we can maintain this level of defense when the conference schedule starts.

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Its probably just that Gonzaga is a great team

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Originally Posted by arnie

How’s our FT% defense😀. That number is an important piece to our luck factor.

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Tied for 56th (65.2%).

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Originally Posted by JNort

Its probably just that Gonzaga is a great team

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Well, our adjusted efficiency rating is significantly better than all the pre-Gonzaga games, other than Eastern Michigan. So it would appear that something has changed/improved since then. Of course, not necessarily. We just have four straight games of amazing defensive efficiency - could just be a coincidence. Or not.

Imagine how impressive our ratings would be if Coach K would see the light and play some zone. Sorry, couldn’t resist.

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Originally Posted by devilsadvocate85

Imagine how impressive our ratings would be if Coach K would see the light and play some zone. Sorry, couldn’t resist.

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And imagine if he rested the guys with tired legs.

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Originally Posted by NSDukeFan

And imagine if he rested the guys with tired legs.

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If only we could recruit more 4 year players...

dRtg: 0.67 (adjusted that's 0.68, our fifth straight game with an adjusted dRating under 0.8)
eFG%: 36.9% (another great performance for a team ranked 5th-best in the country in opposing eFG%)
3pt%: 27.3% (very good)
2pt%: 32.1% (fabulous)
%threes: 54.1% (this is a big number, but if they shoot 27%, it's cool)
FT rate: 9.8% (3rd game this season under 10% and 6th game under 17%)
DR%: 81.4% (best DR% of the season)
TO%: 25.4% (fifth straight game over 25%)
a/to: 0.68:1
%assisted: 72.2%
fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 8.0%
block%: 23.0%; 50.0% of 2-point shots (yes, we blocked half of our opponents' two-point attempts, 2nd time this season this has happened for the 2nd-best shotblocking team in the nation)
steal%: 16.0% (another great performance for the best stealing team in the country)


This team is playing defense at a very high level right now.

According to KenPom, Duke’s D is ahead of Virginia’s right now. That’s pretty crazy.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

According to KenPom, Duke’s D is ahead of Virginia’s right now. That’s pretty crazy.

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Never thought I'd see that again.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

According to KenPom, Duke’s D is ahead of Virginia’s right now. That’s pretty crazy.

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And wouldn't you know (I sure didn't) that Texas Tech's defense is number one, in case anyone is expecting an easy game tomorrow.

According to KenPom this AM, the difference in adjusted efficiency between #1 Duke at +31.36 and #2 Virginia at +26.25, is greater than the difference between Virginia and #13 Wisconsin (+21.73).

dRtg: 0.71 (adjusted that's 0.66, our sixth straight game with an adjusted dRating under 0.8, an amazing number against a top 10 team)
eFG%: 43.0% (another strong performance for a team ranked 6th-best in the country in opposing eFG%)
3pt%: 31.3%
2pt%: 41.5%
%threes: 28.1%
FT rate: 22.8%
DR%: 81.3% (2nd game in a row grabbing 80%+ of defensive rebound opportunties)
TO%: 29.4% (sixth straight game over 25%)
a/to: 0.38:1 (this is kind of amazing too)
%assisted: 40.9%
fast break pts: 3 fb pts for 5.2% (for a game with 80+ possessions, hard to imagine only giving up 3 fast break points -- the team really got back on D)
block%: 12.3%; 17.1% of 2-point shots (another block party for the 2nd-best shotblocking team in the nation)
steal%: 18.4% (yet another great performance for the best stealing team in the country)


This might have been our best defensive effort of the season, and that's saying something. According to KenPom, our adjusted season defense is better than both Virginia's and Michigan's. Wow.

I know others have noted it but I just wanted to say that we have now held 5 consecutive opponents under 60 total points. We appear to have turned into a defensive juggernaut.

-Jason "we just beat a top ten team by double digits in a game where we could not throw the ball in the ocean from the beach... I shudder to think what happens when we hit even 1/3rd of our threes" Evans

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I shudder to think what happens when we hit even 1/3rd of our threes" Evans

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Or take someone's advice and finally decide to play zone . . . . :rolleyes:

Bump...

Anxiously awaiting Kedsy’s update!

I’m sure I’m not the only one who really appreciates the work put in!

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Originally Posted by BandAlum83

Bump...

Anxiously awaiting Kedsy’s update!

I’m sure I’m not the only one who really appreciates the work put in!

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dRtg: 0.88 (adjusted that's 0.81, breaking our six game streak with an adjusted dRating under 0.8, but only barely)
eFG%: 47.6% (3rd-worst opposing eFG% of the season after Gonzaga (60.0%) and Army (59.0%); but if 47.6% is one of your worst performances, you're pretty good)
3pt%: 40.0% (high, but fortunately on not that many shots)
2pt%: 43.8%
%threes: 23.8% (if you're going to give up 40%, you have to keep them off the line, and we did)
FT rate: 19.0%
DR%: 75.7% (4th straight strong defensive rebounding performance)
TO%: 23.3% (seventh straight game over 23%)
a/to: 0.78:1 (seventh straight game under 0.8:1)
%assisted: 51.9%
fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 13.2% (seventh straight game under 16%)
block%: 9.5%; 12.5% of 2-point shots (doesn't count Zion's mind-altering goaltend)
steal%: 16.8% (yet another strong performance)

For the season (unadjusted), Duke ranks #1 nationally in steal%; #2 in block%; and #6 (tied) in opposing eFG%. This is wow territory, so sit back and enjoy it.

Our adjusted dEff for the game (0.81), if season-long, would be the best in the country. But we were really way better than that. Before K inserted Jordan Goldwire with 8:48 to go in the game, and Antonio Vrankovic 24 seconds later, our unadjusted efficiency for the first 31+ was 0.75, which is 0.68 adjusted (for the season, the #1 defensive team is at 0.83 adjusted). If we had kept that up the whole game, it would have been our fifth game out of the last six with an adjusted dEff under 0.7 and our seventh straight game under 0.8. Which is truly amazing.

I got curious about how much our opponents turnover percentage was being impacted by our better defensive performance. So I dug into the numbers and did a comparison of before and after the Gonzaga game and turned up something that's interesting - don't know if it's significant, but I am happy to see it.

In our games up through Gonzaga, our opponents' turnover percentage was (on average) 1.1% better than their average for all their games. As an example, Army's current TO% for all games is 16.7%, while in the Duke game they ended up at 12.8%. So they were 3.9% better against Duke than against all their opponents.

In our games after Gonzaga, our opponents' turnover percentage is (on average) 7.7% worse than in all their games combined. For example, Texas Tech's TO% for all games is 19.3%, but in their game against us it was 29.3%, so they were 10% worse than average when they played us.

Also since Gonzaga, ALL our opponents have had a higher turnover percentage against us than their season average. Prior to Gonzaga, some were better, some were worse.

So for whatever it's worth, we do seem to be making it harder for teams to hang onto the ball.

dRtg: 0.87 (adjusted that's 0.85, bringing our season adjusted dEff up to #2 in the country)
eFG%: 36.9% (nice)
3pt%: 22.2% (ditto)
2pt%: 38.3% (ditto again)
%threes: 27.7% (strong)
FT rate: 43.1% (high, but Wake is one of the best foul-drawing teams in the country)
DR%: 60.4% (a defensive rebounding clunker after four straight strong performances in this category)
TO%: 21.4% (eighth straight game over 20%)
a/to: 0.38:1 (eighth straight game under 0.8:1)
%assisted: 27.3% (absurdly low, though I'm not sure if the credit for that should go to Duke or Wake)
fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 13.8% (eighth straight game under 16%)
block%: 20.0%; 27.7% of 2-point shots (amazingly, this is only our fourth-best block party of the year, percentagewise)
steal%: 9.4% (only so-so, compared to our season steals performance)

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

block%: 20.0%; 27.7% of 2-point shots (amazingly, this is only our fourth-best block party of the year, percentagewise)

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Is it possible to calculate the block percentage on shots taken with 4 feet of Jack White, cause it felt like that was 100% last night ;)

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 0.87 (adjusted that's 0.85, bringing our season adjusted dEff up to #2 in the country)
eFG%: 36.9% (nice)
3pt%: 22.2% (ditto)
2pt%: 38.3% (ditto again)
%threes: 27.7% (strong)
FT rate: 43.1% (high, but Wake is one of the best foul-drawing teams in the country)
DR%: 60.4% (a defensive rebounding clunker after four straight strong performances in this category)
TO%: 21.4% (eighth straight game over 20%)
a/to: 0.38:1 (eighth straight game under 0.8:1)
%assisted: 27.3% (absurdly low, though I'm not sure if the credit for that should go to Duke or Wake)
fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 13.8% (eighth straight game under 16%)
block%: 20.0%; 27.7% of 2-point shots (amazingly, this is only our fourth-best block party of the year, percentagewise)
steal%: 9.4% (only so-so, compared to our season steals performance)

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Kedsy, first of all, the fact that you provide this after every game is wonderful, especially with your commentary. This is great stuff.

Second, if the mods deem it appropriate, I petition that this thread be put up at the top with a Sticky along with the Plus Minus Report.

Third, at the top of that Sticky I would love to see a glossary that explains what each row means and, perhaps, a range of where we'd ideally want to be for each category.

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Originally Posted by Rich

Kedsy, first of all, the fact that you provide this after every game is wonderful, especially with your commentary. This is great stuff.

Second, if the mods deem it appropriate, I petition that this thread be put up at the top with a Sticky along with the Plus Minus Report.

Third, at the top of that Sticky I would love to see a glossary that explains what each row means and, perhaps, a range of where we'd ideally want to be for each category.

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Excellent idea. And yes, thank you Kedsy. I have to spread sporks around, but i always very much appreciate these updates.

For anyone who wants more context for these numbers, Bart Torvik has a KenPom-esque site that shows rebounding rates, turnover percentage, etc. and includes a national rank number. If you don't have a KenPom subscription, this is the next best thing (or, even if you're like me and you do have a KenPom subscription, his site is still really cool).

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Originally Posted by Rich

Kedsy, first of all, the fact that you provide this after every game is wonderful, especially with your commentary. This is great stuff.

Second, if the mods deem it appropriate, I petition that this thread be put up at the top with a Sticky along with the Plus Minus Report.

Third, at the top of that Sticky I would love to see a glossary that explains what each row means and, perhaps, a range of where we'd ideally want to be for each category.

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Earlier this season, I created this Duke-centric thread to explain and contextualize the various advanced stats (both offense and defense). Hopefully this can serve as the glossary you seek.

dRtg: 1.08 (adjusted that's 0.99, not great but I guess acceptable)
eFG%: 46.8% (ditto)
3pt%: 32.0%
2pt%: 45.9% (not great, but not bad, considering they had 10 dunks)
%threes: 40.3% (we let them take a lot of threes; lucky they didn't hit so many)
FT rate: 38.7% (pretty high but not too horrible)
DR%: 52.8% (our worst defensive rebounding performance of the season, by a lot)
TO%: 23.5% (ninth straight game over 20%)
a/to: 0.94:1 (broke an eight game streak under 0.8:1)
%assisted: 64.0%
fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 5.1% (ninth straight game under 16%)
block%: 4.8%; 8.1% of 2-point shots (not great, but it's hard to block dunks)
steal%: 9.7% (second straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance)

Biggest defensive issue was we couldn't grab a defensive rebound (though we can't blame Marques this time, he led the team with 4 d-boards), though I guess allowing 10 dunks could count as a problem, or it would have if we hadn't held them to 25.9% on non-dunk two-pointers.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.08 (adjusted that's 0.99, not great but I guess acceptable)
eFG%: 46.8% (ditto)
3pt%: 32.0%
2pt%: 45.9% (not great, but not bad, considering they had 10 dunks)
%threes: 40.3% (we let them take a lot of threes; lucky they didn't hit so many)
FT rate: 38.7% (pretty high but not too horrible)
DR%: 52.8% (our worst defensive rebounding performance of the season, by a lot)
TO%: 23.5% (ninth straight game over 20%)
a/to: 0.94:1 (broke an eight game streak under 0.8:1)
%assisted: 64.0%
fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 5.1% (ninth straight game under 16%)
block%: 4.8%; 8.1% of 2-point shots (not great, but it's hard to block dunks)
steal%: 9.7% (second straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance)

Biggest defensive issue was we couldn't grab a defensive rebound (though we can't blame Marques this time, he led the team with 4 d-boards), though I guess allowing 10 dunks could count as a problem, or it would have if we hadn't held them to 25.9% on non-dunk two-pointers.

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Have to imagine having Zion on the bench hurt our defensive rebounding percentage.

dRtg: 1.05 (adjusted that's 1.00, not great but considering we played without our two best defenders, it might be as good as we could have hoped for)
eFG%: 50.6% (pretty bad but, again, we played without our two best defenders)
3pt%: 44.0% (really bad but, ditto)
2pt%: 43.6% (not bad, considering)
%threes: 31.3%
FT rate: 23.8%
DR%: 72.3% (really good for us, against a pretty good (though not great) offensive rebounding team)
TO%: 16.4% (broke our nine game streak of having a 20%+ TO%; clearly Tre and/or Cam are the key to Duke turning our opponents over)
a/to: 0.87:1 (tenth straight game our opponents have had more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 37.1%
fast break pts: for some reason, we only have first half data for this, and in the first half Syracuse had 4 fb pts for 8.3% of their points
block%: 15.0%; 21.8% of 2-point shots (very strong for the second-best blocking team in the country)
steal%: 8.8% (third straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance; but without Cam and Tre, that was to be expected)


I hate to sound like a broken record, but playing without our two best defenders our overall defensive performance wasn't that bad.

A couple data points to help confirm the completely obvious theory that to play great defense you need all your best players to play:

Against Syracuse, Tre played 12 possessions. A small sample, to be sure, but:

WITH TRE:
0.50 dRating (0.46 adjusted); 41.7% TO%

WITHOUT TRE:
1.13 dRating (1.08 adjusted); 12.7% TO%


Against Florida State, Zion played only in the first half:

FIRST HALF, WITH ZION:
0.98 dRating (0.89 adjusted)

SECOND HALF, WITHOUT ZION:
1.16 dRating (1.07 adjusted)


For comparison's sake, 0.89 adjusted dRating is the level of the 5th best defense in the country; 1.07 dRating is the level of the 255th best defense (and 1.08 is the level of the 274th best defense).

Just sayin'.

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.05 (adjusted that's 1.00, not great but considering we played without our two best defenders, it might be as good as we could have hoped for)
eFG%: 50.6% (pretty bad but, again, we played without our two best defenders)
3pt%: 44.0% (really bad but, ditto)
2pt%: 43.6% (not bad, considering)
%threes: 31.3%
FT rate: 23.8%
DR%: 72.3% (really good for us, against a pretty good (though not great) offensive rebounding team)
TO%: 16.4% (broke our nine game streak of having a 20%+ TO%; clearly Tre and/or Cam are the key to Duke turning our opponents over)
a/to: 0.87:1 (tenth straight game our opponents have had more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 37.1%
fast break pts: for some reason, we only have first half data for this, and in the first half Syracuse had 4 fb pts for 8.3% of their points
block%: 15.0%; 21.8% of 2-point shots (very strong for the second-best blocking team in the country)
steal%: 8.8% (third straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance; but without Cam and Tre, that was to be expected)


I hate to sound like a broken record, but playing without our two best defenders our overall defensive performance wasn't that bad.

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can't be mad with the ridiculous threes they were hitting. If there was a concept of "effeciency luck" which accounted for good shots which miss and bad shots which go in, we were unlucky on both sides of the ball last night. Fortunately their 0-6 from deep down the stretch helped bring their overall number down a bit.

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Originally Posted by uh_no

can't be mad with the ridiculous threes they were hitting. If there was a concept of "effeciency luck" which accounted for good shots which miss and bad shots which go in, we were unlucky on both sides of the ball last night. Fortunately their 0-6 from deep down the stretch helped bring their overall number down a bit.

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I know some of the motion-capture cameras track that data for NBA games. I don't recall the specific articles, but I've read a number over the years that have used such data to show that Steph Curry is ridiculously good at making closely-guarded threes that would be awful shots for almost anyone else. I wonder if there is a similar database for that for college. I guess it would depend on the individual school arenas. And it might not be publicly available. But it would be interesting to see. I really do think we got a bit unlucky last night. Our defense wasn't quite as bad as it seemed after Tre went down. 'Cuse hit a lot of closely guarded shots with players that don't usually hit threes. Even with Tre, that game would have been closer than any of us would have liked (that, or Tre would've just continued to steal the ball and we would have run away with it).

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Originally Posted by COYS

I know some of the motion-capture cameras track that data for NBA games. I don't recall the specific articles, but I've read a number over the years that have used such data to show that Steph Curry is ridiculously good at making closely-guarded threes that would be awful shots for almost anyone else. I wonder if there is a similar database for that for college. I guess it would depend on the individual school arenas. And it might not be publicly available. But it would be interesting to see. I really do think we got a bit unlucky last night. Our defense wasn't quite as bad as it seemed after Tre went down. 'Cuse hit a lot of closely guarded shots with players that don't usually hit threes. Even with Tre, that game would have been closer than any of us would have liked (that, or Tre would've just continued to steal the ball and we would have run away with it).

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duke uses the tech. you'll note that they put trackers just below the neckline on the inside of the jerseys during warm-up. You'd need dataa from both teams to be able to get a complete picture.

dRtg: 1.11 (adjusted that's 0.94, decent but probably better than decent, considering our best defender watched from the bench)
eFG%: 55.7% (bad)
3pt%: 17.6% (amazing, but not sure how much was skill and how much was luck)
2pt%: 69.4% (horrible)
%threes: 32.1%
FT rate: 32.1% (this is probably too high, but not alarmingly so)
DR%: 75.9% (really good for Duke, though Virginia isn't the best offensive rebounding team, either)
TO%: 12.7% (way too low, but actually this is about average for Virginia's offense)
a/to: 1:1 (after ten straight games holding our opponents to fewer assists than turnovers, Virginia broke that streak by having the same number of assists and TOs)
%assisted: 28.6%
fast break pts: 8 (11.4% of their points)
block%: 1.9%; 2.8% of 2-point shots (we only had one block, which for this team is almost hard to believe)
steal%: 7.9% (fourth straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance; but against Virginia and without Tre, it's actually pretty decent)


Not the best defensive effort, but I think we'll all take it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.11 (adjusted that's 0.94, decent but probably better than decent, considering our best defender watched from the bench)
eFG%: 55.7% (bad)
3pt%: 17.6% (amazing, but not sure how much was skill and how much was luck)
2pt%: 69.4% (horrible)
%threes: 32.1%
FT rate: 32.1% (this is probably too high, but not alarmingly so)
DR%: 75.9% (really good for Duke, though Virginia isn't the best offensive rebounding team, either)
TO%: 12.7% (way too low, but actually this is about average for Virginia's offense)
a/to: 1:1 (after ten straight games holding our opponents to fewer assists than turnovers, Virginia broke that streak by having the same number of assists and TOs)
%assisted: 28.6%
fast break pts: 8 (11.4% of their points)
block%: 1.9%; 2.8% of 2-point shots (we only had one block, which for this team is almost hard to believe)
steal%: 7.9% (fourth straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance; but against Virginia and without Tre, it's actually pretty decent)


Not the best defensive effort, but I think we'll all take it.

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Without Tre, will definitely take it. Will be interesting to see how his presence changes the rematch, assuming he’s back in three weeks. I expect Duke will be able to speed up the tempo and force more turnovers with Tre back.

Not Duke's defense, but our 3 point shooting is now 31.2%, good for a logjam/tie from #290-295 in the nation. :eek:

dRtg: 0.93 (adjusted that's still 0.93, decent but considering our best defender watched from the bench...)
eFG%: 44.3% (acceptable, not great)
3pt%: 20.0% (second straight super strong performance, but hard to say whether Duke was good or Pitt was bad)
2pt%: 50.0% (not great)
%threes: 28.3% (good, but Pitt's 258th in the country in this, so probably to be expected)
FT rate: 37.7% (this is probably too high, but considering Pitt is 9th in the country in this, with an average of 45.7%, it's not bad)
DR%: 67.6%
TO%: 20.4% (anything over 20% is cool with me)
a/to: 0.43:1 (12th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 27.3% (3rd straight very low number in this category)
fast break pts: 13 (20.3% of their points; only 2nd time our opponents have topped 20% in this all season (Auburn 25.0%))
block%: 13.2%; 18.4% of 2-point shots (back to looking like the 2nd best blocking team in the nation)
steal%: 13.1% (back to looking like the best stealing team in the nation, and without Tre, that's saying something)


Fourth straight adjusted dRating of 93 or worse. Not the happiest news but seeing as we're doing this without our best defender, I'm willing to look past it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 0.93 (adjusted that's still 0.93, decent but considering our best defender watched from the bench...)
eFG%: 44.3% (acceptable, not great)
3pt%: 20.0% (second straight super strong performance, but hard to say whether Duke was good or Pitt was bad)
2pt%: 50.0% (not great)
%threes: 28.3% (good, but Pitt's 258th in the country in this, so probably to be expected)
FT rate: 37.7% (this is probably too high, but considering Pitt is 9th in the country in this, with an average of 45.7%, it's not bad)
DR%: 67.6%
TO%: 20.4% (anything over 20% is cool with me)
a/to: 0.43:1 (12th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 27.3% (3rd straight very low number in this category)
fast break pts: 13 (20.3% of their points; only 2nd time our opponents have topped 20% in this all season (Auburn 25.0%))
block%: 13.2%; 18.4% of 2-point shots (back to looking like the 2nd best blocking team in the nation)
steal%: 13.1% (back to looking like the best stealing team in the nation, and without Tre, that's saying something)


Fourth straight adjusted dRating of 93 or worse. Not the happiest news but seeing as we're doing this without our best defender, I'm willing to look past it.

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Kedsy, I doubt you have numbers for this, but I'm curious what the breakdown would be for a zone defense vs. man-to-man. Based on the eye test, our zone defense looks pretty bad. We're not yet making the right rotations against simple actions, and as a result we give up a lot of open corner threes. Against a good team, that's deadly.

That said, I think K was brilliant for deploying zone for most of the second half. We had a comfortable lead, and this was an opportunity to get in game reps playing zone against a not-horrible team. I'd gladly trade a dip in our defensive numbers if it means getting competent in a different scheme. K seems determined to have this team be able to play a passable zone for a few minutes in big games, and this was a good step to getting there. I would be shocked if we don't see it some more against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame if we're able to build a decent lead in those games too.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 0.93 (adjusted that's still 0.93, decent but considering our best defender watched from the bench...)
eFG%: 44.3% (acceptable, not great)
3pt%: 20.0% (second straight super strong performance, but hard to say whether Duke was good or Pitt was bad)
2pt%: 50.0% (not great)
%threes: 28.3% (good, but Pitt's 258th in the country in this, so probably to be expected)
FT rate: 37.7% (this is probably too high, but considering Pitt is 9th in the country in this, with an average of 45.7%, it's not bad)
DR%: 67.6%
TO%: 20.4% (anything over 20% is cool with me)
a/to: 0.43:1 (12th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 27.3% (3rd straight very low number in this category)
fast break pts: 13 (20.3% of their points; only 2nd time our opponents have topped 20% in this all season (Auburn 25.0%))
block%: 13.2%; 18.4% of 2-point shots (back to looking like the 2nd best blocking team in the nation)
steal%: 13.1% (back to looking like the best stealing team in the nation, and without Tre, that's saying something)


Fourth straight adjusted dRating of 93 or worse. Not the happiest news but seeing as we're doing this without our best defender, I'm willing to look past it.

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Perhaps you missed it, but according to the Naismith DPOY mid-season watch list, Zion is our best defender. /s

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Truth&Justise

Kedsy, I doubt you have numbers for this, but I'm curious what the breakdown would be for a zone defense vs. man-to-man. Based on the eye test, our zone defense looks pretty bad. We're not yet making the right rotations against simple actions, and as a result we give up a lot of open corner threes. Against a good team, that's deadly.

That said, I think K was brilliant for deploying zone for most of the second half. We had a comfortable lead, and this was an opportunity to get in game reps playing zone against a not-horrible team. I'd gladly trade a dip in our defensive numbers if it means getting competent in a different scheme. K seems determined to have this team be able to play a passable zone for a few minutes in big games, and this was a good step to getting there. I would be shocked if we don't see it some more against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame if we're able to build a decent lead in those games too.

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I don't think the zone is going to be used for anything other than spot support for whenever we can't stop dribble penetration. I think we'll remain a man-first defense and mix in the zone only as needed. And I suspect that once Tre Jones returns we'll see less and less need for the zone.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by English

Perhaps you missed it, but according to the Naismith DPOY mid-season watch list, Zion is our best defender. /s

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They probably place too much emphasis on stats like dRating, in which Zion ranks #6 in the nation (82.8). It's a flawed stat that over-rewards blocks and steals and gives individuals credit for team performance while they're on the floor. Texas Tech has three of the top 10 in this stat. Virginia has two of the top 10 (Braxton Key is #1 in the country with a dRtg of 77.5 and Ty Jerome is #10).

Here's how Duke's players stack up in defensive rating:

Zion: 82.8
Javin: 86.3
Cam: 88.8
Jack: 89.3
Marques: 89.9
Alex: 91.4
Tre: 92.2
RJ: 92.3
Jordan: 93.2

So if you looked at stats like that, and you wanted to pick one Duke player, Zion would be the guy and Tre wouldn't even be considered.

But we know better.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

They probably place too much emphasis on stats like dRating, in which Zion ranks #6 in the nation (82.8). It's a flawed stat that over-rewards blocks and steals and gives individuals credit for team performance while they're on the floor. Texas Tech has three of the top 10 in this stat. Virginia has two of the top 10 (Braxton Key is #1 in the country with a dRtg of 77.5 and Ty Jerome is #10).

Here's how Duke's players stack up in defensive rating:

Zion: 82.8
Javin: 86.3
Cam: 88.8
Jack: 89.3
Marques: 89.9
Alex: 91.4
Tre: 92.2
RJ: 92.3
Jordan: 93.2

So if you looked at stats like that, and you wanted to pick one Duke player, Zion would be the guy and Tre wouldn't even be considered.

But we know better.

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That's right, we know that freshmen OADs can't play defense. (Boom, nailed it!)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CDu

I don't think the zone is going to be used for anything other than spot support for whenever we can't stop dribble penetration. I think we'll remain a man-first defense and mix in the zone only as needed. And I suspect that once Tre Jones returns we'll see less and less need for the zone.

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I can see it as a valuable tool coming out of a timeout where the opposing team has drawn up a play against our M2M. Element of surprise.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CDu

I don't think the zone is going to be used for anything other than spot support for whenever we can't stop dribble penetration. I think we'll remain a man-first defense and mix in the zone only as needed. And I suspect that once Tre Jones returns we'll see less and less need for the zone.

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rich

I can see it as a valuable tool coming out of a timeout where the opposing team has drawn up a play against our M2M. Element of surprise.

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However it is deployed, it will probably be present in some fashion, and my hope is that it will eventually be more stout than it is now. Even if it's just for a few possessions, having a porous zone can be disastrous -- I'm reminded of the early second half against Kansas in the Elite Eight last year. The gambit to catch them off guard with a 1-3-1 really backfired, Kansas went on a run, and it was one of several inflection points in that game.

I think the only way to get better is real game reps until our rotations are crisp and automatic. We're still too easily undone by simple actions to generate open perimeter looks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Truth&Justise

However it is deployed, it will probably be present in some fashion, and my hope is that it will eventually be more stout than it is now. Even if it's just for a few possessions, having a porous zone can be disastrous -- I'm reminded of the early second half against Kansas in the Elite Eight last year. The gambit to catch them off guard with a 1-3-1 really backfired, Kansas went on a run, and it was one of several inflection points in that game.

I think the only way to get better is real game reps until our rotations are crisp and automatic. We're still too easily undone by simple actions to generate open perimeter looks.

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Really, the only way to get better? I agree with much of what you say--I'm positive that everyone on this board hopes the zone improves, as well as the M2M, the DR%, the 3/4 court press, and on and on. But seriously, these are freshmen and a collection of guys who haven't played much together. Practice time over the course of a season hones their teamwork and comfort as a unit. Real game reps are nice, and important to improvement, but practicing these principles and rotations over and over again in practice is huge. Perhaps I'm just nitpicking.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CDu

I don't think the zone is going to be used for anything other than spot support for whenever we can't stop dribble penetration. I think we'll remain a man-first defense and mix in the zone only as needed. And I suspect that once Tre Jones returns we'll see less and less need for the zone.

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Indeed. 2015 was the beginning of the new era, where K embraced zone during the mid-season swoon to right the ship. But by the tournaments, the team was back to playing man-to-man (thankfully, at a very high level).

When Duke plays man-to-man well, K is going to favor that. I am glad, however, he has moved to zone to fill the gaps when the team cannot stop penetration.

dRtg: 0.76 (adjusted that's 0.80, back to a great number with Tre back)
eFG%: 44.0% (not terrible)
3pt%: 30.0%
2pt%: 43.8% (good)
%threes: 17.2% (very good)
FT rate: 10.3% (super low, against a team that's pretty good at getting to the line)
DR%: 73.0% (very good, for us)
TO%: 27.4% (very strong; no coincidence this happened with Tre back)
a/to: 0.58:1 (13th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 45.8.3%
fast break pts: 8 (15.1% of their points)
block%: 12.1%; 14.6% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 18.7% (super strong)


No coincidence our D suffered a bit in the three games Tre was out and returned to greatness today. Welcome back Tre

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 0.76 (adjusted that's 0.80, back to a great number with Tre back)
eFG%: 44.0% (not terrible)
3pt%: 30.0%
2pt%: 43.8% (good)
%threes: 17.2% (very good)
FT rate: 10.3% (super low, against a team that's pretty good at getting to the line)
DR%: 73.0% (very good, for us)
TO%: 27.4% (very strong; no coincidence this happened with Tre back)
a/to: 0.58:1 (13th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 45.8.3%
fast break pts: 8 (15.1% of their points)
block%: 12.1%; 14.6% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 18.7% (super strong)


No coincidence our D suffered a bit in the three games Tre was out and returned to greatness today. Welcome back Tre

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I think the D was probably even better than advertised today. in their spurt around either side of halftime, they generated a good bit of offense off our offensive offensive execution. When we cleaned it up on that side of the flloor, they're offense went kaput.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by uh_no

I think the D was probably even better than advertised today. in their spurt around either side of halftime, they generated a good bit of offense off our offensive offensive execution. When we cleaned it up on that side of the flloor, they're offense went kaput.

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In the last 3:57 of the first half plus the first 4:17 of the 2nd half, Ga Tech had 16 points in 14 possessions (1.14 ppp). The rest of the game (approx 32 mins) they had 37 points in 55.4 possessions (0.67 ppp).

dRtg: 0.98 (adjusted that's 0.94; not bad but to me it felt better while watching the game)
eFG%: 40.9% (good)
3pt%: 33.3% (not bad)
2pt%: 35.7% (really good)
%threes: 36.4%
FT rate: 14.5% (2nd straight sub-15% performance in defensive FTR)
DR%: 59.1% (very, very bad)
TO%: 14.5% (not good, but ND is very strong at not turning it over, so maybe this was unavoidable)
a/to: 1:1 (14th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 39.1%
fast break pts: 7 (11.5% of their points)
block%: 9.1%; 14.3% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 12.9% (another strong stealing game)


I think if our defensive rebounding had risen to the level of adequate, this would have gone down as a very strong defensive performance. As it is, good but not great.

dRtg: 0.79 (adjusted that's 0.72; really good against a decent opponent, especially considering how poor our D looked early on)
eFG%: 37.5% (very good)
3pt%: 19.2% (they made 4 of their first 7 and then went 1 for 19 after that)
2pt%: 42.9% (good)
%threes: 38.2%
FT rate: 17.6% (strong)
DR%: 73.3% (very good, for us; only 2nd game this season (Princeton was the other) in which we've gotten both 40+% on ORs and 70+% on DRs)
TO%: 19.5% (good but not great; it seemed better than it was because we got a lot of live-ball turnovers)
a/to: 0:8 (15th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 52.2%
fast break pts: 9 (14.5% of their points)
block%: 8.8%; 14.3% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 15.6% (another very strong stealing game)


The first 6 1/2 minutes of the game, we gave up 21 points in 12 possessions, an atrocious 1.75 ppp. The next 33.5 minutes of the game, we gave up 40 points in 64.8 possessions, an amazing 0.62 ppp (0.54 adjusted). That was just a defensive beatdown for 30+ minutes. It seemed like SJ got a lot of o-boards, but in reality it was one of Duke's better games on the defensive boards.

Also, Marques Bolden had five defensive rebounds today, which considering how poor he's been at d-boards this season is a very positive sign.

dRtg: 0.80 (adjusted that's 0.75; 3rd game at .80 or below in the 4 games since Tre Jones came back)
eFG%: 41.1% (another good peformance for the 6th best team in the country in this stat)
3pt%: 35.3% (not horrible)
2pt%: 35.9% (really good)
%threes: 30.4% (not bad)
FT rate: 19.6% (good; 4th straight game under 20% for the 11th best in the country for this stat)
DR%: 82.9% (outstanding; our best DR performance of the season)
TO%: 20.3% (I'll take anything over 20%, especially against a team that usually takes care of the ball reasonably well)
a/to: 0.64:1 (16th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 45.0%
fast break pts: 2 (3.6% of their points; hard to get too much better than this)
block%: 16.1%; 23.1% of 2-point shots (great performance for the #1 block% team in the nation)
steal%: 15.6% (another strong game for the #1 steal% team in the nation)


Another defensive beatdown. We did almost everything on D really, really well.

dRtg: 1.12 (adjusted that's 0.95, not great but it's still below 1 point per possession; considering the outcome, we'll take it)
eFG%: 55.0% (poor)
3pt%: 41.7% (not good)
2pt%: 50.0% (also not good)
%threes: 40.0%
FT rate: 11.7% (really good; 5th straight game under 20% for a top 15 team in this stat)
DR%: 54.8% (very poor)
TO%: 22.2% (amazing, against the team with the 5th lowest turnover rate in the country)
a/to: 1.07:1 (broke a 16 game streak of forcing our opponents to have equal or more turnovers than assists; though UVa only had one more assist than turnover, so not so bad)
%assisted: 53.6%
fast break pts: 0 (0.0% of their points; impossible to get any better than this in this stat)
block%: 8.3%; 13.9% of 2-point shots (another solid performance for the #1 block% team in the nation)
steal%: 19.0% (huge game for the #1 steal% team in the nation)


A mixed bag, to be sure. But you catch me complaining after beating the #3 team in the country by double-figures at their house.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

fast break pts: 0 (0.0% of their points; impossible to get any better than this in this stat)

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More on defensive fast break points:

-- This was our 5th straight game holding the opponent to single-digits in fast break points.

-- In our last two games we've given up a total of two (2) fast break points. That's 1.0 fb pts per game.

That's called getting back on D.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

More on defensive fast break points:

-- This was our 5th straight game holding the opponent to single-digits in fast break points.

-- In our last two games we've given up a total of two (2) fast break points. That's 1.0 fb pts per game.

That's called getting back on D.

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After so many years of feeling like* our team would get killed in transition but not similarly be able to convert, this season is a joy to watch in that regard in both directions.

*I stress feeling like - this is far from empirical and I suspect the numbers would tell me we had it better than I remember. But what I remember is that we've had some recent teams that were really pretty bad in transition D.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

More on defensive fast break points:

-- This was our 5th straight game holding the opponent to single-digits in fast break points.

-- In our last two games we've given up a total of two (2) fast break points. That's 1.0 fb pts per game.

That's called getting back on D.

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Not looking ahead, as I intend to enjoy every game. Our neighbors down the road appear to play a faster pace than we do. It will be interesting to see how the fast break points play out in those games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by fuse

Not looking ahead, as I intend to enjoy every game. Our neighbors down the road appear to play a faster pace than we do. It will be interesting to see how the fast break points play out in those games.

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I think that will play right into our hands, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

DR%: 54.8% (very poor)

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This was the most surprising stat on defense considering Virginia doesn't really try for offensive rebounds. A good performance here allows us to win even if we don't shoot lights out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

More on defensive fast break points:

-- This was our 5th straight game holding the opponent to single-digits in fast break points.

-- In our last two games we've given up a total of two (2) fast break points. That's 1.0 fb pts per game.

That's called getting back on D.

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might this have something to do with our lackluster Dreb%? If we're getting back on D it seems we'd have fewer people going to the glass.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil

might this have something to do with our lackluster Dreb%? If we're getting back on D it seems we'd have fewer people going to the glass.

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No, getting back on D could have a negative impact on our offensive rebounding. But there is no reason why it should hurt our defensive rebounding.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by fuse

Not looking ahead, as I intend to enjoy every game. Our neighbors down the road appear to play a faster pace than we do. It will be interesting to see how the fast break points play out in those games.

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Since UNC doesn't really have a PG and we have a fantastic on-ball defender and 3 lengthy athletic dudes who are adept at picking off errant or lazy passes, it's quite possible that our D feasts on UNC's deficiencies in those regards. At least that's how i hope it plays out.

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.94 (adjusted that's 0.81, really good, though most of the defensive effort occurred in the last 9:54 of the game)
eFG%: 49.2% (poor)
3pt%: 33.3% (fine)
2pt%: 48.5% (not good)
%threes: 45.0% (that's a lot of threes)
FT rate: 21.7% (pretty decent)
DR%: 73.7% (very good)
TO%: 23.0% (pretty strong)
a/to: 1:1 (17 of 18 games we've forced our opponents to have equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 68.0%
fast break pts: they only reported first half, and in the first half Louisville had 10 fb points, 26.3% of their first half points
block%: 3.3%; 6.1% of 2-point shots (not so good, for us)
steal%: 16.3% (another big game for the #1 steal% team in the nation)


In the first 30+ minutes of the game we gave up 59 points, nearly two points per minute. In the last 10- minutes of the game we only gave up 10 points, just about half the rate we gave up points in the first three-quarters of the game.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.94 (adjusted that's 0.81, really good, though most of the defensive effort occurred in the last 9:54 of the game)
eFG%: 49.2% (poor)
3pt%: 33.3% (fine)
2pt%: 48.5% (not good)
%threes: 45.0% (that's a lot of threes)
FT rate: 21.7% (pretty decent)
DR%: 73.7% (very good)
TO%: 23.0% (pretty strong)
a/to: 1:1 (17 of 18 games we've forced our opponents to have equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 68.0%
fast break pts: they only reported first half, and in the first half Louisville had 10 fb points, 26.3% of their first half points
block%: 3.3%; 6.1% of 2-point shots (not so good, for us)
steal%: 16.3% (another big game for the #1 steal% team in the nation)


In the first 30+ minutes of the game we gave up 59 points, nearly two points per minute. In the last 10- minutes of the game we only gave up 10 points, just about half the rate we gave up points in the first three-quarters of the game.

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i don't even know where to start with this one. not your post, the game i mean.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.94 (adjusted that's 0.81, really good, though most of the defensive effort occurred in the last 9:54 of the game)
eFG%: 49.2% (poor)
3pt%: 33.3% (fine)
2pt%: 48.5% (not good)
%threes: 45.0% (that's a lot of threes)
FT rate: 21.7% (pretty decent)
DR%: 73.7% (very good)
TO%: 23.0% (pretty strong)
a/to: 1:1 (17 of 18 games we've forced our opponents to have equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 68.0%
fast break pts: they only reported first half, and in the first half Louisville had 10 fb points, 26.3% of their first half points
block%: 3.3%; 6.1% of 2-point shots (not so good, for us)
steal%: 16.3% (another big game for the #1 steal% team in the nation)


In the first 30+ minutes of the game we gave up 59 points, nearly two points per minute. In the last 10- minutes of the game we only gave up 10 points, just about half the rate we gave up points in the first three-quarters of the game.

---

We moved up from 5th to 4th AdjD from this game (88.0 to 87.3) on KenPom

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by uh_no

I actually viewed the game in three segments.

Getting up 19-15: 21 possessions, 100 adjO, 58 adjD
getting down 36-59: 32 possessions, 63 adjO, 127 adjD
winning: 21 possessions, 176 adjO, 34 adjD

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Courtesy of uh_no in the game thread. That's amazing defense in the bookend 18.5 minutes (8:42 to start the game and 9:54 to end it) and horrendous defense in the middle 21.5 minutes. A matter of focus? Or just a statistical anomaly?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

Courtesy of uh_no in the game thread. That's amazing defense in the bookend 18.5 minutes (8:42 to start the game and 9:54 to end it) and horrendous defense in the middle 21.5 minutes. A matter of focus? Or just a statistical anomaly?

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I think the 2 botched inbounds plays were definitely focus. not getting back on some of the breakaways is very uncharacteristic of this team...it's something we need to not make a habit...I don't know if they were tired becuase of the flight issues, frustrated because we weren't scoring or what, but that's the kind of thing that UNC loves to do.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by uh_no

I think the 2 botched inbounds plays were definitely focus. not getting back on some of the breakaways is very uncharacteristic of this team...it's something we need to not make a habit...I don't know if they were tired becuase of the flight issues, frustrated because we weren't scoring or what, but that's the kind of thing that UNC loves to do.

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The good thing is that we shouldn't have travel issues for any matchups with UNC. We have home games (and well in advance) ahead of each of the UNC matchups. Also, I suspect the Heels tempo will have our full attention, whereas Louisville has generally been a slow-it-down team this year.

I do like that UNC is turnover prone AND wants to play up-tempo. That would seem to play to our strengths. The danger of course is that they are fantastic on the glass and can really shoot the 3.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CDu

The good thing is that we shouldn't have travel issues for any matchups with UNC. We have home games (and well in advance) ahead of each of the UNC matchups. Also, I suspect the Heels tempo will have our full attention, whereas Louisville has generally been a slow-it-down team this year.

I do like that UNC is turnover prone AND wants to play up-tempo. That would seem to play to our strengths. The danger of course is that they are fantastic on the glass and can really shoot the 3.

---

My how times have changed. For years Duke was the 3 point shooting team while the cheats liked to score inside. Now they shoot the 3 well and getting to the basket is our biggest weapon. Just proves that our GOAT, can change and use the strength of the team he's built. GoDuke!

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.91, much better than it looked to my eyes)
eFG%: 54.5% (very poor, dropping us to tied for 8th best in the nation)
3pt%: 31.6% (good)
2pt%: 57.4% (so not good)
%threes: 28.8% (good)
FT rate: 16.7% (another strong performance, giving us the 5th best opposing FTR in the country)
DR%: 85.7% (awesome, best of the season; our 2nd "best of season" performance in our last four games)
TO%: 15.4% (ugh)
a/to: 1:33 (the last time our opponent had more than one assist above turnovers was the Gonzaga game)
%assisted: 48.5%
fast break pts: 2 (2.6% of their points; we've allowed two or fewer fast break points in three of our last four games)
block%: 10.6%; 25.9% of 2-point shots (super strong, though we've now dropped to the 2nd best block% in the nation)
steal%: 11.6% (eighth straight game above 10% for the #1 steal% team in the land)


Our defense against State was hardly recognizable as coming from the 2019 Duke team: we gave up a terribly high eFG%, forced only a few turnovers, and dominated the defensive boards. Weird, right?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.91, much better than it looked to my eyes)
eFG%: 54.5% (very poor, dropping us to tied for 8th best in the nation)
3pt%: 31.6% (good)
2pt%: 57.4% (so not good)
%threes: 28.8% (good)
FT rate: 16.7% (another strong performance, giving us the 5th best opposing FTR in the country)
DR%: 85.7% (awesome, best of the season; our 2nd "best of season" performance in our last four games)
TO%: 15.4% (ugh)
a/to: 1:33 (the last time our opponent had more than one assist above turnovers was the Gonzaga game)
%assisted: 48.5%
fast break pts: 2 (2.6% of their points; we've allowed two or fewer fast break points in three of our last four games)
block%: 10.6%; 25.9% of 2-point shots (super strong, though we've now dropped to the 2nd best block% in the nation)
steal%: 11.6% (eighth straight game above 10% for the #1 steal% team in the land)


Our defense against State was hardly recognizable as coming from the 2019 Duke team: we gave up a terribly high eFG%, forced only a few turnovers, and dominated the defensive boards. Weird, right?

---

Perhaps not so surprising, they were a smaller and arguably quicker team...seems like they backdoored us twenty times.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.91, much better than it looked to my eyes)
eFG%: 54.5% (very poor, dropping us to tied for 8th best in the nation)
3pt%: 31.6% (good)
2pt%: 57.4% (so not good)
%threes: 28.8% (good)
FT rate: 16.7% (another strong performance, giving us the 5th best opposing FTR in the country)
DR%: 85.7% (awesome, best of the season; our 2nd "best of season" performance in our last four games)
TO%: 15.4% (ugh)
a/to: 1:33 (the last time our opponent had more than one assist above turnovers was the Gonzaga game)
%assisted: 48.5%
fast break pts: 2 (2.6% of their points; we've allowed two or fewer fast break points in three of our last four games)
block%: 10.6%; 25.9% of 2-point shots (super strong, though we've now dropped to the 2nd best block% in the nation)
steal%: 11.6% (eighth straight game above 10% for the #1 steal% team in the land)


Our defense against State was hardly recognizable as coming from the 2019 Duke team: we gave up a terribly high eFG%, forced only a few turnovers, and dominated the defensive boards. Weird, right?

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on the one hand, it was a 91...not as good as the team could play...but that's like one made three difference from expected. I think much of the really disappointing play was when zion went out NCSU scored 12 points in 8 possessions, a 150 raw defense or 140 adjusted.

The rest of the game, 66 points in 70 possessions...good for 94 raw 84 adjusted.

They are a good O, and we could have eliminated some of the Backdoors by sagging off the line, but we didn't let them go crazy from 3, and won the game. I still think the biggest issue is poor help decisions. Instances where help comes but isn't needed, leaving someone open, or help is needed but doesn't come. Teams are going to continue to force bolden and delaurier to make those help decisions, and we need to continue to ensure those decisions are good as often as possible.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.91, much better than it looked to my eyes)
eFG%: 54.5% (very poor, dropping us to tied for 8th best in the nation)
3pt%: 31.6% (good)
2pt%: 57.4% (so not good)
%threes: 28.8% (good)
FT rate: 16.7% (another strong performance, giving us the 5th best opposing FTR in the country)
DR%: 85.7% (awesome, best of the season; our 2nd "best of season" performance in our last four games)
TO%: 15.4% (ugh)
a/to: 1:33 (the last time our opponent had more than one assist above turnovers was the Gonzaga game)
%assisted: 48.5%
fast break pts: 2 (2.6% of their points; we've allowed two or fewer fast break points in three of our last four games)
block%: 10.6%; 25.9% of 2-point shots (super strong, though we've now dropped to the 2nd best block% in the nation)
steal%: 11.6% (eighth straight game above 10% for the #1 steal% team in the land)


Our defense against State was hardly recognizable as coming from the 2019 Duke team: we gave up a terribly high eFG%, forced only a few turnovers, and dominated the defensive boards. Weird, right?

---

They really carved us up on the p&r. Perhaps that was a Markell Johnson effect that other teams won't be able to replicate....let's hope so.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by WillJ

They really carved us up on the p&r. Perhaps that was a Markell Johnson effect that other teams won't be able to replicate...let's hope so.

---

I was commenting on the DBR Chat last night that Markell was giving Tre more of a problem than anyone all year....and in the post game, Tre mentioned that he was a handful.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

I was commenting on the DBR Chat last night that Markell was giving Tre more of a problem than anyone all year...and in the post game, Tre mentioned that he was a handful.

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Markell Johnson is a stud, and one of the best PGs Jones has ever faced. He's a great shooter, great scorer off the drive, and also a very willing and able passer in the pick-and-roll game. In that sense, he's a more difficult matchup than Shamorie Ponds, though Ponds may be the higher-end scoring threat off the dribble. But either way, Johnson is no joke.

dRtg: 1.01 (adjusted that's 0.85; pretty good, believe it or not)
eFG%: 52.0% (second straight poor performance in this area)
3pt%: 10.0% (astonishingly good, considering how good UNC is at shooting threes)
2pt%: 65.5% (just horrendous)
%threes: 26.7% (we kept them off the line and they didn't hit when they shot 'em)
FT rate: 18.7% (another strong performance here)
DR%: 73.7% (really good, against a really good offensive rebounding team)
TO%: 17.2% (adequate, not great)
a/to: 1:33 (second straight at this level, after a long string of games with 1:1 or below)
%assisted: 52.6%
fast break pts: 14 (15.9% of their points; disappointing, but that's what UNC likes to do)
block%: 10.7%; 14.5% of 2-point shots (considering we played without Zion, this is really good)
steal%: 12.6% (ninth straight game above 10% for the #1 steal% team in the land)


Thanks to letting the Heels have pretty much whatever they wanted inside, our eFG% was bad for the second straight game. But we made up for that by running them off the three-point line and making them miss their threes when they took them. Plus our TO% was OK, our free throw rate was good, and our defensive rebounding was over 70% for the fifth time in six games. Overall (despite how it felt while we watched it) especially considering we played without Zion, this was actually a very strong defensive performance.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

Thanks to letting the Heels have pretty much whatever they wanted inside, our eFG% was bad for the second straight game. But we made up for that by running them off the three-point line and making them miss their threes when they took them. Plus our TO% was OK, our free throw rate was good, and our defensive rebounding was over 70% for the fifth time in six games. Overall (despite how it felt while we watched it) especially considering we played without Zion, this was actually a very strong defensive performance.

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Surprised to see the numbers look this good. I guess it was all skewed by no one guarding Luke Friggin Maye.

Checking the box score now and sure enough, no one guarded Luke Maye.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by superdave

Surprised to see the numbers look this good. I guess it was all skewed by no one guarding Luke Friggin Maye.

Checking the box score now and sure enough, no one guarded Luke Maye.

---

That was Zion’s job.

dRtg: 0.98 (adjusted that's 0.94; decent, not great)
eFG%: 37.9% (outstanding; our 2nd best opposing eFG% in conference play)
3pt%: 21.7% (good)
2pt%: 40.4% (very good; 3rd best opposing 2-pt% in conference play)
%threes: 32.9%
FT rate: 27.1% (meh)
DR%: 61.2% (pretty bad)
TO%: 10.5% (lowest opposing TO% of the season)
a/to: 1:71 (after a long string of games with 1:1 or below, we've had three straight of the opposite)
%assisted: 50.0%
fast break pts: 6 (12.8% of their points)
block%: 8.6%; 12.8% of 2-point shots (good, considering we played without Zion, thanks primarily to Javin)
steal%: 3.0% (awful; breaks a streak of nine straight game above 10%)


Kind of the opposite of last game's defense. The only thing we did well on defense was hold them to poor shooting. Other three of four factors, not so hot, especially defensive rebounding and failing to force turnovers. Still, a 0.94 without our best player? Can't really complain.

Cam Reddish's shooting has obviously been below what he's capable of, but I watched his defense closely last night and I think he's really good.

dRtg: 1.22 (adjusted that's 1.07, which may look better but is still really lousy, the equivalent of 236th in the country)
eFG%: 54.0% (bad)
3pt%: 30.8% (can't actually complain too much about this number, though it is lower than our season average of 28.7%, which is 5th best in the country)
2pt%: 62.5% (really, really bad)
%threes: 52.0% (that's a whole lotta threes)
FT rate: 58.0% (yuck, our 2nd-worst FT rate of the season)
DR%: 75.9% (pretty good, actually)
TO%: 9.5% (our lowest opposing TO% of the season, after our previous low was set last game)
a/to: 2:1 (after a long string of games with 1:1 or below, we've had four straight of the opposite)
%assisted: 52.2%
fast break pts: 9 (11.7% of their points)
block%: 8.0%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (good, considering we played without Zion, again thanks primarily to Javin)
steal%: 1.6% (second straight putrid performance in this area)


No doubt about it, this game was lost on defense. Our defensive rebounding was pretty good but we stunk at pretty much every other defensive metric.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.22 (adjusted that's 1.07, which may look better but is still really lousy, the equivalent of 236th in the country)
eFG%: 54.0% (bad)
3pt%: 30.8% (can't actually complain too much about this number, though it is lower than our season average of 28.7%, which is 5th best in the country)
2pt%: 62.5% (really, really bad)
%threes: 52.0% (that's a whole lotta threes)
FT rate: 58.0% (yuck, our 2nd-worst FT rate of the season)
DR%: 75.9% (pretty good, actually)
TO%: 9.5% (our lowest opposing TO% of the season, after our previous low was set last game)
a/to: 2:1 (after a long string of games with 1:1 or below, we've had four straight of the opposite)
%assisted: 52.2%
fast break pts: 9 (11.7% of their points)
block%: 8.0%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (good, considering we played without Zion, again thanks primarily to Javin)
steal%: 1.6% (second straight putrid performance in this area)


No doubt about it, this game was lost on defense. Our defensive rebounding was pretty good but we stunk at pretty much every other defensive metric.

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Easily our worst defensive performance of the year. Only the gonzaga game comes close.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.22 (adjusted that's 1.07, which may look better but is still really lousy, the equivalent of 236th in the country)
eFG%: 54.0% (bad)
3pt%: 30.8% (can't actually complain too much about this number, though it is lower than our season average of 28.7%, which is 5th best in the country)
2pt%: 62.5% (really, really bad)
%threes: 52.0% (that's a whole lotta threes)
FT rate: 58.0% (yuck, our 2nd-worst FT rate of the season)
DR%: 75.9% (pretty good, actually)
TO%: 9.5% (our lowest opposing TO% of the season, after our previous low was set last game)
a/to: 2:1 (after a long string of games with 1:1 or below, we've had four straight of the opposite)
%assisted: 52.2%
fast break pts: 9 (11.7% of their points)
block%: 8.0%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (good, considering we played without Zion, again thanks primarily to Javin)
steal%: 1.6% (second straight putrid performance in this area)


No doubt about it, this game was lost on defense. Our defensive rebounding was pretty good but we stunk at pretty much every other defensive metric.

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What curious to me (other than the obvious Zion answer, which I’m not discounting) is why.

Was the VT offensive scheme just suited to exploit our defense?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fuse

What curious to me (other than the obvious Zion answer, which I’m not discounting) is why.

Was the VT offensive scheme just suited to exploit our defense?

---

High level - 1) We didn't turn them over so they got a shot or FT nearly every possession 2) In the first half we had several bad live ball TOs that led to 4-6 points and 3) 2nd half we sent them to the FT line early and often

When we forced them to run half court offense against our set D (I don't have the actual numbers) but I didn't think we were that bad. VT is very good at knowing where to pass the ball to shooters after we rotate to provide help against their actions. We definitely had some missteps but by my eye we did OK.

But in a lowish possession game (63) that was generally within 3-5 points the entire game 8-10 "easy" points over the course of a game make a big difference.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fuse

What curious to me (other than the obvious Zion answer, which I’m not discounting) is why.

Was the VT offensive scheme just suited to exploit our defense?

---

My opinions:

1. Yes
2. 29 FT, starting being in the double bonus 8-10 minutes into the 2nd half. :mad:

Maybe someone can teach Tre Jones how Wabissa Bede uses the Jedi mind trick for his 3pt shot fake--the guy is a terrible shooter, and yet got Duke's defensive closeout guy off his feet with a 3pt shot fake on nearly every instance. Any time Bede shot faked and the Duke closeout player didn't jump into the third row, Bede either passed up the shot or barely drew iron. I think he hit one uncontested 3pt, but for how badly he typically shoots, you'd think the scouting report would say something like "don't you dare leave your feet on this dude's 3pt shot fake or you'll run until you pass out at our next practice."

Can we please incorporate this into Tre Jones' and Jack White's games? It's gotta be voodoo, right?

ETA: I don't want to pile on the negativity, but please don't help off the strong corner 3pt shooter, AOC. Thank you.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by English

Maybe someone can teach Tre Jones how Wabissa Bede uses the Jedi mind trick for his 3pt shot fake--the guy is a terrible shooter, and yet got Duke's defensive closeout guy off his feet with a 3pt shot fake on nearly every instance. Any time Bede shot faked and the Duke closeout player didn't jump into the third row, Bede either passed up the shot or barely drew iron. I think he hit one uncontested 3pt, but for how badly he typically shoots, you'd think the scouting report would say something like "don't you dare leave your feet on this dude's 3pt shot fake or you'll run until you pass out at our next practice."

Can we please incorporate this into Tre Jones' and Jack White's games? It's gotta be voodoo, right?

ETA: I don't want to pile on the negativity, but please don't help off the strong corner 3pt shooter, AOC. Thank you.

---

To be fair, Bede shoots 37% from 3 this year and 41% for his career (and was 2-5 against us). I think the first step in selling a shot fake is making enough shots that the defense respects you.

dRtg: 0.77 (adjusted that's 0.73, really good)
eFG%: 39.7% (also really good)
3pt%: 25.0% (good)
2pt%: 41.0% (good)
%threes: 38.1% (fine)
FT rate: 19.0% (good)
DR%: 75.0% (2nd straight 75%+ DR performance; if you go down to 70%, it's 5 of 6, 7 of 9, 10 of 14, 14 of 20; meaning we've been a decent defensive rebounding team for most of the ACC season)
TO%: 21.7% (back where we want this to be)
a/to: 0.69:1 (broke a four game blah streak here)
%assisted: 50.0%
fast break pts: 10 (17.5% of their points; all 10 of these were in the 2nd half, which we entered with a 28-point lead, so we can forgive this number)
block%: 6.3%; 10.2% of 2-point shots (not our best, but not bad, especially without Zion)
steal%: 13.6% (very good, breaking a two-game ugh streak)


After probably our worst defensive showing of the season last game, our defensive performance this game was one of our best. Basically there wasn't one defensive stat that we shouldn't feel proud about (other than possibly fast break points, but since they all happened in the 2nd half, I say ignore it).

dRtg: 0.93 (adjusted that's 0.93, better than it looked)
eFG%: 44.3% (not bad)
3pt%: 30.4% (almost exactly Wake's average)
2pt%: 43.8% (good enough)
%threes: 32.4%
FT rate: 16.9% (very good)
DR%: 75.0% (much better than it seemed; our 3rd straight 75%+ DR performance; and if you go down to 70%, it's 6 of 7, 8 of 10, 11 of 15, 15 of 21; we've been a decent defensive rebounding team for most of the ACC season)
TO%: 12.0% (third poor TO performance in last four games)
a/to: 0.89:1
%assisted: 28.6% (Wake scored the vast majority of their points in one-on-one situations)
fast break pts: 11 (15.7% of their points; not great)
block%: 9.9%; 14.6% of 2-point shots (we're actually a very good shotblocking team, even without Zion)
steal%: 4.0% (third pathetic steals performance in last four games)


Not great defense against Wake, but a lot better than it looked to the naked eye.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 0.93 (adjusted that's 0.93, better than it looked)
eFG%: 44.3% (not bad)
3pt%: 30.4% (almost exactly Wake's average)
2pt%: 43.8% (good enough)
%threes: 32.4%
FT rate: 16.9% (very good)
DR%: 75.0% (much better than it seemed; our 3rd straight 75%+ DR performance; and if you go down to 70%, it's 6 of 7, 8 of 10, 11 of 15, 15 of 21; we've been a decent defensive rebounding team for most of the ACC season)
TO%: 12.0% (third poor TO performance in last four games)
a/to: 0.89:1
%assisted: 28.6% (Wake scored the vast majority of their points in one-on-one situations)
fast break pts: 11 (15.7% of their points; not great)
block%: 9.9%; 14.6% of 2-point shots (we're actually a very good shotblocking team, even without Zion)
steal%: 4.0% (third pathetic steals performance in last four games)


Not great defense against Wake, but a lot better than it looked to the naked eye.

---

I thought the defense was fine last night. Wake is pretty good at OR% (the one thing they do well) and Duke held them in check. I think the TO issue gets fixed when Zion returns, making the defense elite again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ns7

I thought the defense was fine last night. Wake is pretty good at OR% (the one thing they do well) and Duke held them in check. I think the TO issue gets fixed when Zion returns, making the defense elite again.

---

there was one sequence that really stuck out for me when around the time when cam hit one of his threes when he just did a phenomenal job one-on-one, got the rebound, and hit the three (though I forge the exact order)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CDu

To be fair, Bede shoots 37% from 3 this year and 41% for his career (and was 2-5 against us). I think the first step in selling a shot fake is making enough shots that the defense respects you.

---

Huh, forgive my laziness, I didn't realize Bede shot almost(ish) 40%. The announcers for that game continued to remark, numerous times, on how bad a perimeter shooter he was. Serves me right for actually believing that they did their homework in advance of their job.

Anywho, back to the topic at hand.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by English

Huh, forgive my laziness, I didn't realize Bede shot almost(ish) 40%. The announcers for that game continued to remark, numerous times, on how bad a perimeter shooter he was. Serves me right for actually believing that they did their homework in advance of their job.

Anywho, back to the topic at hand.

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No worries. You are absolutely correct that the announcers did you no favors in that game. Not a great effort by LaPhonso in that one.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CDu

No worries. You are absolutely correct that the announcers did you no favors in that game. Not a great effort by LaPhonso in that one.

---

And the announcers last night didn't mention Bolden being absent from the game in the 2nd half. Then they showed a shot of D.Wade in the crowd and made mention of other people there, but failed to mention Michael Dunleavy sitting next to D. Wade. Most of these guys don't do their homework. GoDuke!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by jv001

And the announcers last night didn't mention Bolden being absent from the game in the 2nd half. Then they showed a shot of D.Wade in the crowd and made mention of other people there, but failed to mention Michael Dunleavy sitting next to D. Wade. Most of these guys don't do their homework. GoDuke!

---

Funny you mention that...it was also LaPhonso on the call last night, too. Same guy! I don't typically have an issue with his calls, but he should probably take a bit more pride in studying up for his job.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by English

Funny you mention that...it was also LaPhonso on the call last night, too. Same guy! I don't typically have an issue with his calls, but he should probably take a bit more pride in studying up for his job.

---

LaPhonso also praised Cam and called him the most consistent shooter on the team.

Another poster pointed out his bi=polar performance history. Far from consistent.

dRtg: 1.03 (adjusted that's 0.88, can't complain about this)
eFG%: 48.6% (not good but not horrifying either)
3pt%: 38.7% (UNC averages 37.3%, so not much better than their average)
2pt%: 41.9% (strong)
%threes: 41.9% (too high if you're going to let them shoot as well as they did from three)
FT rate: 17.6% (very good)
DR%: 69.6% (this was acceptable; better than UNC did at DRs)
TO%: 13.0% (fourth poor TO performance in last five games)
a/to: 1.6:1
%assisted: 53.3%
fast break pts: 12 (15.2% of their points; not as bad as it seemed)
block%: 9.5%; 16.3% of 2-point shots (once again showing we're a really good shotblocking team, amazingly even without both Zion and Marques)
steal%: 6.5% (fourth pathetic steals performance in last five games)


Last time against UNC, we stifled their three-point shooting and gave up a lot of open layups. This time, they had their way from three but we bottled them up inside. Overall, our D was a little worse than it was last UNC game, but still very good (top 10) defense.

dRtg: 1.02 (adjusted that's 0.97, not horrid but not good either)
eFG%: 56.7% (somewhat horrid)
3pt%: 42.8% (2nd too-strong effort from behind the line in the three Syracuse games)
2pt%: 51.6% (weak)
%threes: 40.4% (too high if you're going to let them shoot as well as they did from three)
FT rate: 42.3% (way too high)
DR%: 73.5% (very good)
TO%: 23.8% (really good; I guess Zion does matter, huh?)
a/to: 0.41:1
%assisted: 28.0%
fast break pts: 10 (13.9% of their points; not great but not terrible)
block%: 7.7%; 12.9% of 2-point shots (even without Marques, this team can block shots)
steal%: 19.6% (with Zion back we once again looked like the best stealing team in the country)

Our defense was just adequate. We rebounded well defensively and turned them over really well, but but we let them shoot way too well both from three and from two, and put them on the line too much.

Yeah, when we weren’t turning them over, our defense was awful. Which isn’t good because Syracuse without Battle is a bad offensive team.

The Cuse did a good job of targeting O’Connell and Barrett and scoring on them fairly easily. That and occasionally punishing Jones whenever he got switched onto Brissett.

Hopefully we are much better tonight.

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.85, this was really good for the 3rd time out of three against UNC, especially considering they put up an unadjusted 1.33 in the first 8 minutes)
eFG%: 42.5% (really good)
3pt%: 14.8% (2nd fabulous number in three UNC games)
2pt%: 54.3% (weak)
%threes: 37.0% (fine when they're shooting 15%, especially since so many of their threes were poorly conceived shots)
FT rate: 20.5% (good)
DR%: 64.4% (not good)
TO%: 11.0% (very weak; my biggest disappointment of our defense tonight)
a/to: 1.65:1
%assisted: 44.8%
fast break pts: 20 (27.4% of their points; actually this is probably my biggest disappointment - I don't have the other numbers in front of me but this was one of our worst fast break defense performances of the season, if not the worst)
block%: 8.2%; 13.0% of 2-point shots (even without Marques, this team can block shots)
steal%: 8.3% (feh)

Turnovers much lower than we'd like, defensive rebounding much lower, and fast break points much, much higher. And yet, we held them to a low enough shooting percentage (and kept them off the line) that our overall defensive performance was quite good.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

block%: 8.2%; 13.0% of 2-point shots (even without Marques, this team can block shots)

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I wish there was a way of measuring balls that someone (like Zion perhaps) gets their fingertips upon which causes the shot to miss. It is not a full block, but it is a shot where the defense causes the shot to miss. These quite often happen on shots close to the basket that would be high percentage buckets. Zion had about 4 or 5 of those last night but not a single one of them officially goes down as a block.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

fast break pts: 20 (27.4% of their points; actually this is probably my biggest disappointment - I don't have the other numbers in front of me but this was one of our worst fast break defense performances of the season, if not the worst)

---

Full credit to Roy, but he knows how to get his team moving up the court fast. The play where they answered the Zion dunk with a dunk of their own in just 4 SECONDS!!! was among the most remarkable things I have ever seen on a basketball court. I mean, this was a play that would have made Paul Westhead jealous.

You can see it again at the 4:40 mark of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpr0mazpFcE

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JasonEvans

I wish there was a way of measuring balls that someone (like Zion perhaps) gets their fingertips upon which causes the shot to miss. It is not a full block, but it is a shot where the defense causes the shot to miss. These quite often happen on shots close to the basket that would be high percentage buckets. Zion had about 4 or 5 of those last night but not a single one of them officially goes down as a block.



Full credit to Roy, but he knows how to get his team moving up the court fast. The play where they answered the Zion dunk with a dunk of their own in just 4 SECONDS!!! was among the most remarkable things I have ever seen on a basketball court. I mean, this was a play that would have made Paul Westhead jealous.

You can see it again at the 4:40 mark of this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gpr0mazpFcE

---

there's a stat for shots challenged or shots affected or some such

dRtg: 0.91 (adjusted that's 0.83, our 4th sub-0.90 defensive performance in our last six games; this would have been sub-0.80 if FSU hadn't made that meaningless three at the buzzer)
eFG%: 38.1% (really, really good)
3pt%: 40.0% (too high, but what can you do when a 6'10" guy nails three out of five and someone else tosses one in for no reason at the buzzer?)
2pt%: 27.9% (this is an OMG number; and is also our best 2pt defense of the season)
%threes: 31.7% (considering how well they were shooting, nice to run them off the line, at least a little)
FT rate: 25.4% (decent)
DR%: 70.7% (good, against a very tall team)
TO%: 17.3% (not bad)
a/to: 0.66:1
%assisted: 40.0%
fast break pts: 8 (12.7% of their points; this is acceptable)
block%: 9.5%; 14.0% of 2-point shots (once again we showed that even without Marques, this team can block shots)
steal%: 11.5% (good, not great)


Overall, this was great defense, against a team that came into the game on a hot streak. We play this well on D the rest of the post-season, we should be in pretty good shape.

In Ken Pom, Duke's adjusted D is right there with Uva. I will take that.

If this team is a defensive juggernaut like they have been the last 75 minutes of ACCT game action, I will gladly take that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by superdave

In Ken Pom, Duke's adjusted D is right there with Uva. I will take that.

If this team is a defensive juggernaut like they have been the last 75 minutes of ACCT game action, I will gladly take that.

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In T-Rank, Duke's D is slightly better than UVa's. Think about that. And adding Bolden back at some point (we all hope) will make the defense even stronger.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MChambers

In T-Rank, Duke's D is slightly better than UVa's. Think about that. And adding Bolden back at some point (we all hope) will make the defense even stronger.

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Is this a possibility? That's amazing. I thought he was done for the year.

How far does Duke need to get to get him back on the floor? Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duke4ever19

Is this a possibility? That's amazing. I thought he was done for the year.

How far does Duke need to get to get him back on the floor? Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four?

---

K was quoted this week as saying he might be back as soon as next weekend. I think this was a surprise to most of us.

dRtg: 0.87 (adjusted that's 0.84, our 5th sub-0.90 defensive performance in our last seven games)
eFG%: 43.1% (can't complain)
3pt%: 27.6% (good)
2pt%: 44.8% (also good)
%threes: 50.0% (I'm cool with this if they're shooting 28%)
FT rate: 24.1% (decent)
DR%: 83.3% (outstanding)
TO%: 18.2% (not bad)
a/to: 0.54:1
%assisted: 33.3%
fast break pts: 0 (0% of their points; literally can't get better than this)
block%: 12.1%; 24.1% of 2-point shots (big numbers against a small team)
steal%: 8.4% (not especially good)


Our defense tonight was outstanding in almost every area, after a slow start (we gave up 12 points in the first 10 possessions).

dRtg: 1.12 (adjusted that's 1.05, pretty terrible)
eFG%: 56.5% (also terrible)
3pt%: 50.0% (what's worse than terrible?)
2pt%: 47.2% (pretty good, especially considering that 9 of their 17 two-point field goals were dunks)
%threes: 33.3%
FT rate: 37.7% (poor)
DR%: 76.7% (outstanding, considering who was standing under their basket for much of the game; second straight great DR performance)
TO%: 16.3% (meh)
a/to: 1.45:1
%assisted: 61.5%
fast break pts: 2 (2.6% of their points; second straight great performance here)
block%: 5.6%; 8.3% of 2-point shots (uncharacteristically low for this team)
steal%: 11.8% (not bad)


Our defense was pretty awful tonight, but I guess just good enough.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.12 (adjusted that's 1.05, pretty terrible)
eFG%: 56.5% (also terrible)
3pt%: 50.0% (what's worse than terrible?)
2pt%: 47.2% (pretty good, especially considering that 9 of their 17 two-point field goals were dunks)
%threes: 33.3%
FT rate: 37.7% (poor)
DR%: 76.7% (outstanding, considering who was standing under their basket for much of the game; second straight great DR performance)
TO%: 16.3% (meh)
a/to: 1.45:1
%assisted: 61.5%
fast break pts: 2 (2.6% of their points; second straight great performance here)
block%: 5.6%; 8.3% of 2-point shots (uncharacteristically low for this team)
steal%: 11.8% (not bad)


Our defense was pretty awful tonight, but I guess just good enough.

---

that was a tournament-losing defensive performance that fortunately for us, didn't lose us the tournament. Bounce back next weekend.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

Our defense was pretty awful tonight, but I guess just good enough.

---

I take solace in the fact that the bad defense was driven by their great eFG and high FTR. Take away 5 points from the awful calls and it's a 96 adj d which is bad but not awful.

I'm very convinced that the team has an elite d. One game where a 7-6 anomaly got away with a bunch of fouls and their 24 yr old senior went off on jump shots won't change my mind.

If anything the great effort on offense should be very reassuring. So glad that the season didn't end on that fluke.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ns7

I take solace in the fact that the bad defense was driven by their great eFG and high FTR. Take away 5 points from the awful calls and it's a 96 adj d which is bad but not awful.

I'm very convinced that the team has an elite d. One game where a 7-6 anomaly got away with a bunch of fouls and their 24 yr old senior went off on jump shots won't change my mind.

If anything the great effort on offense should be very reassuring. So glad that the season didn't end on that fluke.

---

I'm still waiting for NCAA refs to demonstrate that they know how to call a fair game with Zion on the floor. The guy should be going to the line routinely. There is a picture of Tacko just absolutely mauling Zion on a play early in the second half, yet that was a no-call, play on. I don't get it. They are egregious oversights in some cases.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duke4ever19

I'm still waiting for NCAA refs to demonstrate that they know how to call a fair game with Zion on the floor. The guy should be going to the line routinely. There is a picture of Tacko just absolutely mauling Zion on a play early in the second half, yet that was a no-call, play on. I don't get it. They are egregious oversights in some cases.

---

It was really bad today. It was our worst FTR game of the year, yet we still had a great day on offense because of 3s, very few TOs, and a decent OR effort.

Again, I do believe our bad defense was a perfect storm and not something to be overly concerned about.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by duke4ever19

I'm still waiting for NCAA refs to demonstrate that they know how to call a fair game with Zion on the floor. The guy should be going to the line routinely. There is a picture of Tacko just absolutely mauling Zion on a play early in the second half, yet that was a no-call, play on. I don't get it. They are egregious oversights in some cases.

---

There were plenty of swallowed whistles on both sides of the ball today. Time to move on.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bludevil_33

There were plenty of swallowed whistles on both sides of the ball today. Time to move on.

---

Where did I address missed calls on both teams? I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about how NCAA refs approach refereeing a guy with Zion's skillset.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by duke4ever19

I'm still waiting for NCAA refs to demonstrate that they know how to call a fair game with Zion on the floor. The guy should be going to the line routinely. There is a picture of Tacko just absolutely mauling Zion on a play early in the second half, yet that was a no-call, play on. I don't get it. They are egregious oversights in some cases.

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You mean this one?

Attachment 9221

UCF got to the line so much this game. How is it that they're the #2 in the nation at drawing FTs when we're 160 and we have Zion, RJ. Absurd.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by proelitedota

UCF got to the line so much this game. How is it that they're the #2 in the nation at drawing FTs when we're 160 and we have Zion, RJ. Absurd.

---

BJ Taylor is an example. He was smart about driving baseline then stopping and jumping backwards into the trailing defender. Fall had 8 fouls and that is ridiculous.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by bludevil_33

There were plenty of swallowed whistles on both sides of the ball today. Time to move on.

---

This is not about "swallowed whistles" - that's a mis diagnosis...it's about officials being totally unable to evaluate physical freaks like Zion and Tacko. They were lost, clueless...and it didn't break down evenly last night at all. Not even close.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK

This is not about "swallowed whistles" - that's a mis diagnosis...it's about officials being totally unable to evaluate physical freaks like Zion and Tacko. They were lost, clueless...and it didn't break down evenly last night at all. Not even close.

---

spot on. when you are so used to watching typical 6'2-6'9 guys, youget used to what looks like a foul, and for better or worse, getting knocked back is a good indicator of being fouled. given that zion is a freight train and tacko a stilt, fouling or getting fouled just looks different...to a degree that it's probably hard on the court to trust your usual instincts. I don't think the refs last night were malicious, but I can see how the uniqueness of zion and tacko as players makes it difficult to call. If they saw guys like that every day, I imagine they would be able to be more consistent.

That said, man, that no-call when tacko obliterated Zion...thank goodness he is such a cool head, as i'm sure there are some players who might've gone ballistic.

dRtg: 1.14 (adjusted that's 1.01, better than against UCF, but disappointing nonetheless; clearly we missed Cam's D in this one)
eFG%: 47.6% (not bad)
3pt%: 34.6% (okay)
2pt%: 44.4% (good)
%threes: 41.9% (we gave up a lot of threes, and they shot them adequately; certainly one of our defensive issues tonight)
FT rate: 29.0% (not awful, but not good)
DR%: 56.4% (absolutely dreadful)
TO%: 17.1% (not good but not terrible)
a/to: 1.72:1
%assisted: 76.0% (VaTech passed well tonight)
fast break pts: 7 (9.6% of their points; third straight good performance here)
block%: 9.7%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (excellent)
steal%: 7.8% (feh)


Pretty subpar on D. Any Cam-plainers out there take note: we need his defense. With or without him, we need a better effort on Sunday than we've had the past two games.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.14 (adjusted that's 1.01, better than against UCF, but disappointing nonetheless; clearly we missed Cam's D in this one)
eFG%: 47.6% (not bad)
3pt%: 34.6% (okay)
2pt%: 44.4% (good)
%threes: 41.9% (we gave up a lot of threes, and they shot them adequately; certainly one of our defensive issues tonight)
FT rate: 29.0% (not awful, but not good)
DR%: 56.4% (absolutely dreadful)
TO%: 17.1% (not good but not terrible)
a/to: 1.72:1
%assisted: 76.0% (VaTech passed well tonight)
fast break pts: 7 (9.6% of their points; third straight good performance here)
block%: 9.7%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (excellent)
steal%: 7.8% (feh)


Pretty subpar on D. Any Cam-plainers out there take note: we need his defense. With or without him, we need a better effort on Sunday than we've had the past two games.

---

I know Cam was missing, but would he have improved our rebounding? His replacement, AOC, did a great job on the boards.

I suppose Cam would have certainly helped to force steals, and that would have led to an improvement. But I don't believe he would have improved our rebounding.

We bobbled way too many rebounds plus VT had several air balls that dropped into Blackshear or off us. I know I’m biased, but it just felt like so many good bounces went for the Hokies- except the last one...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ns7

I know Cam was missing, but would he have improved our rebounding? His replacement, AOC, did a great job on the boards.

I suppose Cam would have certainly helped to force steals, and that would have led to an improvement. But I don't believe he would have improved our rebounding.

---

Though our DR% is the obviously poor number on our stat sheet, oddly enough it didn't really hurt us so much in the game because Virginia Tech only scored 9 second-chance points (Duke also scored 9 second-chance points despite getting a much lower percentage of offensive rebounds (29.6% compared to VaT's 43.6%)). Interestingly, in our regular season game against Virginia Tech, the Hokies also scored 9 second-chance points, but in that game Duke had a very respectable 75.9% DR%.

Similarly, Duke and Virginia Tech committed the same number of turnovers last night (11 for a 17.1% TO rate), but Duke scored 17 points off turnovers and VaT only had 9 p.o.t.

It's also possible Cam could have improved our defensive rebounding while also personally getting fewer rebounds than AOC (who was our leading rebounder in the game). I don't have a statistical basis for this theory, but maybe we were out of position for defensive boards because potential rebounders had to come out and help after AOC blew defensive assignments. My "eye test" suggested that a fair number of Virginia Tech points could be at least partially assessed to AOC defensive mistakes.

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.83, which is really good, especially if you take into account all the points off turnovers MSU scored)
eFG%: 47.1% (good)
3pt%: 31.6% (also good)
2pt%: 47.1% (still good)
%threes: 27.1% (once again, good)
FT rate: 8.6% (excellent)
DR%: 72.5% (pretty good against a good OR team)
TO%: 10.3% (bad)
a/to: 2.57:1
%assisted: 60.0%
block%: 12.9%; 17.6% of 2-point shots (another excellent block party)
steal%: 5.9% (another paltry grand theft performance)
fast break pts: 15 (22.1% of their points; third-worst performance of the year, after 27.4% against UNC III (ACCT) and 25.0% against Auburn; but it's hard to say how much of this is due to not getting back vs. how much was unavoidable by the defense after live-ball turnovers)


The stats show we played much better defense than I thought while watching. Despite a rough start we rebounded pretty well (on both ends) against a tough team to rebound against. They had way too many run-outs, but I think that was more due to our turnovers on offense. Can't really blame the defense for our loss tonight.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kedsy

dRtg: 1.00 (adjusted that's 0.83, which is really good, especially if you take into account all the points off turnovers MSU scored)
eFG%: 47.1% (good)
3pt%: 31.6% (also good)
2pt%: 47.1% (still good)
%threes: 27.1% (once again, good)
FT rate: 8.6% (excellent)
DR%: 72.5% (pretty good against a good OR team)
TO%: 10.3% (bad)
a/to: 2.57:1
%assisted: 60.0%
block%: 12.9%; 17.6% of 2-point shots (another excellent block party)
steal%: 5.9% (another paltry grand theft performance)
fast break pts: 15 (22.1% of their points; third-worst performance of the year, after 27.4% against UNC III (ACCT) and 25.0% against Auburn; but it's hard to say how much of this is due to not getting back vs. how much was unavoidable by the defense after live-ball turnovers)


The stats show we played much better defense than I thought while watching. Despite a rough start we rebounded pretty well (on both ends) against a tough team to rebound against. They had way too many run-outs, but I think that was more due to our turnovers on offense. Can't really blame the defense for our loss tonight.

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Interesting. My take during the game was that we were playing phenomenal defense with two blips (to open the game and to end the first half) due to our turnovers. If anything, I felt like the offense was worse than it actually was. But when we were more poised with the ball, we were destroying MSU. We just were too sloppy with the ball, allowing MSU too many easy buckets.

Totally agree that this game was lost on offense, and especially with our own turnovers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CDu

Interesting. My take during the game was that we were playing phenomenal defense with two blips (to open the game and to end the first half) due to our turnovers. If anything, I felt like the offense was worse than it actually was. But when we were more poised with the ball, we were destroying MSU. We just were too sloppy with the ball, allowing MSU too many easy buckets.

Totally agree that this game was lost on offense, and especially with our own turnovers.

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Yep, it was pretty simple -- we lost the game on turnovers, that resulted in (i) our getting up 13 fewer shots than MSU despite having more ORs than them and having better 2 pt and 3 pt shooting percentages than them; and (ii) their getting easy fast-break buckets on the run-outs.

Our defense was generally very good, other than the unfortunate horrific breakdown in communication between Tre and Zion on the last exchange that resulted in neither of them covering Goins.

One minor quibble is I thought Tre tried too hard to sell the shove-offs by Winston (that it was obvious the officials were not going to call), resulting on a few occasions in his being way out of position.